Better RB: Nick Chubb V Joe Mixon V Dalvin Cook

[SmittyBacall]

Man, the disrespect for Mixon is real.

[MWil23]

On 8/24/2022 at 8:06 AM, SmittyBacall said:

Man, the disrespect for Mixon is real.

It's embarrassing that he's received a single vote tbh. There's not a single thing that he's best at on this list. Chubb and Cook are both better pure runners and Cook is a better receiver.

Chubb:

					Games		Rushing								Receiving											Total Yds
Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Rush	Yds	TD	1D	Lng	Y/A	Y/G	A/G	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	1D	Lng	R/G	Y/G	Ctch%	Y/Tgt	Touch	Y/Tch	YScm	RRTD	Fmb	AV	Awards
Career					58	51	908	4816	36	226	92	5.3	83.0	15.7	121	92	751	8.2	3	33	40	1.6	12.9	76.0%	6.2	1000	5.6	5567	39	6	37
2018	23	CLE	RB	24	16	9	192	996	8	47	92	5.2	62.3	12.0	29	20	149	7.5	2	5	24	1.3	9.3	69.0%	5.1	212	5.4	1145	10	0	6
2019*	24	CLE	RB	24	16	16	298	1494	8	62	88	5.0	93.4	18.6	49	36	278	7.7	0	13	32	2.3	17.4	73.5%	5.7	334	5.3	1772	8	3	12	PB
2020*	25	CLE	RB	24	12	12	190	1067	12	56	59	5.6	88.9	15.8	18	16	150	9.4	0	6	26	1.3	12.5	88.9%	8.3	206	5.9	1217	12	1	9	PB
2021*	26	CLE	RB	24	14	14	228	1259	8	61	70	5.5	89.9	16.3	25	20	174	8.7	1	9	40	1.4	12.4	80.0%	7.0	248	5.8	1433	9	2	10	PB

Cook:

Career					56	55	1018	4820	39	246	75	4.7	86.1	18.2	231	182	1499	8.2	3	70	50	3.3	26.8	78.8%	6.5	1200	5.3	6319	42	15	47
2017	22	MIN	rb	33	4	4	74	354	2	16	33	4.8	88.5	18.5	16	11	90	8.2	0	3	36	2.8	22.5	68.8%	5.6	85	5.2	444	2	1	4
2018	23	MIN	RB	33	11	10	133	615	2	22	70	4.6	55.9	12.1	49	40	305	7.6	2	15	27	3.6	27.7	81.6%	6.2	173	5.3	920	4	2	6
2019*	24	MIN	RB	33	14	14	250	1135	13	60	75	4.5	81.1	17.9	63	53	519	9.8	0	26	31	3.8	37.1	84.1%	8.2	303	5.5	1654	13	4	15	AP CPoY-5, PB
2020*	25	MIN	RB	33	14	14	312	1557	16	91	70	5.0	111.2	22.3	54	44	361	8.2	1	17	50	3.1	25.8	81.5%	6.7	356	5.4	1918	17	5	13	PB
2021*	26	MIN	RB	33	13	13	249	1159	6	57	66	4.7	89.2	19.2	49	34	224	6.6	0	9	24	2.6	17.2	69.4%	4.6	283	4.9	1383	6	3	9	PB

Mixon:

Career					66	57	1104	4564	33	235	51	4.1	69.2	16.7	208	171	1322	7.7	8	54	67	2.6	20.0	82.2%	6.4	1275	4.6	5886	41	6	38
017	21	CIN	rb	28	14	7	178	626	4	39	25	3.5	44.7	12.7	34	30	287	9.6	0	10	67	2.1	20.5	88.2%	8.4	208	4.4	913	4	3	7
2018	22	CIN	RB	28	14	13	237	1168	8	60	51	4.9	83.4	16.9	55	43	296	6.9	1	14	21	3.1	21.1	78.2%	5.4	280	5.2	1464	9	0	11
2019	23	CIN	RB	28	16	15	278	1137	5	56	41	4.1	71.1	17.4	45	35	287	8.2	3	14	33	2.2	17.9	77.8%	6.4	313	4.5	1424	8	0	7
2020	24	CIN	rb	28	6	6	119	428	3	20	34	3.6	71.3	19.8	26	21	138	6.6	1	5	19	3.5	23.0	80.8%	5.3	140	4.0	566	4	1	3
2021*	25	CIN	RB	28	16	16	292	1205	13	60	32	4.1	75.3	18.3	48	42	314	7.5	3	11	52	2.6	19.6	87.5%	6.5	334	4.5	1519	16	2	10	PB

[MWil23]

On 8/24/2022 at 8:04 AM, SmittyBacall said:

Let’s swap offensive lines over those years and see how that changes things.

I mean, let's swap quarterback and wide receiver play and see how that removes an 8th or 9th guy from the box for Nick Chubb. That alternative universe argument works both ways.

[biggie.]

Joe Mixon is a good RB, but that's it.

[RTTRUTH]

First off, let me say it's hard not to go back to how I perceived each player coming out of college when assessing them now. 

With that bias accounted for, my instinct goes to Dalvin Cook, but it is very close, for Chubb. Mixon, to me, really doesn't belong in this conversation. And I'm sorry to those that may be offended. 4.1 AVG or less 4 out of 5 years? I know his OL's were fairly bad a couple/three of those years. But still, I would argue so were Cooks. And here comes the biases showing...even the OL's who have "worked out" for Minny I mostly hated as prospects, and still believe they're more finesse than power. O'Neill I thought was over-rated, Bradbury most pundits are calling to have replaced every off-season. Who has been their best G in that stretch? Darrisaw fine, he's a quality LT. But that's only one season. Cook has been good for a while. Not just good, dominant. Chubb has been excellent as well. And I know there must be 1 or 2 metrics that favor him in this argument. But ultimately, I leaned Cook because nothing about his OL's has impressed me. Whereas Chubb, I feel like he's largely had an entire Pro-Bowl team blocking for him almost every season of his career. Could there be some bias in there for me? Maybe. 

But that's my take.

[MWil23]

14 minutes ago, RTTRUTH said:

First off, let me say it's hard not to go back to how I perceived each player coming out of college when assessing them now. 

With that bias accounted for, my instinct goes to Dalvin Cook, but it is very close, for Chubb. Mixon, to me, really doesn't belong in this conversation. And I'm sorry to those that may be offended. 4.1 AVG or less 4 out of 5 years? I know his OL's were fairly bad a couple/three of those years. But still, I would argue so were Cooks. And here comes the biases showing...even the OL's who have "worked out" for Minny I mostly hated as prospects, and still believe they're more finesse than power. O'Neill I thought was over-rated, Bradbury most pundits are calling to have replaced every off-season. Who has been their best G in that stretch? Darrisaw fine, he's a quality LT. But that's only one season. Cook has been good for a while. Not just good, dominant. Chubb has been excellent as well. And I know there must be 1 or 2 metrics that favor him in this argument. But ultimately, I leaned Cook because nothing about his OL's has impressed me. Whereas Chubb, I feel like he's largely had an entire Pro-Bowl team blocking for him almost every season of his career. Could there be some bias in there for me? Maybe. 

But that's my take.

I'm not going to fault you for this take. That said, Chubb's OL in 2019 was lousy outside of Bitonio (STUD) and Tretter (Good).

https://www.dawgsbynature.com/2020/1/2/21046532/cleveland-browns-offensive-line-takes-big-drop-in-pff-rankings

• Left tackle Greg Robinson? A team-high 11 penalties while allowing 26 quarterback pressures for an overall grade of 66.9.
• Right guard Wyatt Teller? Allowed 16 quarterback pressures - in just 11 games! - and posted a run-blocking grade of 48.2 for an overall grade of 56.7.
• Right tackle Chris Hubbard? A team-high 38 quarterback pressures and six sacks, to go along with eight penalties for an overall grade of 50.6.
• Right guard Eric Kush? Allowed 19 quarterback pressures in seven games before being benched for Teller, and a run-blocking grade of 46.8 for an overall grade of 45.4.
• Tackle/guard Justin McCray? Well, he did share the top run-blocking grade with Bitonio at 65, but he also posted the lowest pass-blocking grade at 41.7, good for an overall grade of 50.9.
• As for right tackle Kendall Lamm, injuries limited him to just three games, and he allowed two quarterback pressures in 43 pass-blocking snaps, finishing with an overall grade of 69.2.

PFF isn't a perfect metric for OL play, but that's kind of hard to argue against.

And ironically, in 2019, Nick Chubb almost won the rushing title, finishing with almost 1,500 yards while averaging a career low 5.0 YPC.

[RTTRUTH]

23 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

I'm not going to fault you for this take. That said, Chubb's OL in 2019 was lousy outside of Bitonio (STUD) and Tretter (Good).

https://www.dawgsbynature.com/2020/1/2/21046532/cleveland-browns-offensive-line-takes-big-drop-in-pff-rankings

• Left tackle Greg Robinson? A team-high 11 penalties while allowing 26 quarterback pressures for an overall grade of 66.9.
• Right guard Wyatt Teller? Allowed 16 quarterback pressures - in just 11 games! - and posted a run-blocking grade of 48.2 for an overall grade of 56.7.
• Right tackle Chris Hubbard? A team-high 38 quarterback pressures and six sacks, to go along with eight penalties for an overall grade of 50.6.
• Right guard Eric Kush? Allowed 19 quarterback pressures in seven games before being benched for Teller, and a run-blocking grade of 46.8 for an overall grade of 45.4.
• Tackle/guard Justin McCray? Well, he did share the top run-blocking grade with Bitonio at 65, but he also posted the lowest pass-blocking grade at 41.7, good for an overall grade of 50.9.
• As for right tackle Kendall Lamm, injuries limited him to just three games, and he allowed two quarterback pressures in 43 pass-blocking snaps, finishing with an overall grade of 69.2.

PFF isn't a perfect metric for OL play, but that's kind of hard to argue against.

And ironically, in 2019, Nick Chubb almost won the rushing title, finishing with almost 1,500 yards while averaging a career low 5.0 YPC.

Well I appreciate PFF, for what it’s worth. Though like possibly every metric, they get at least 1 of every 8 wrong.

Could Teller be a good example? Well the team thought enough of his play to give him $14,000,000AAV after that season. So it’s possible. But Jack Conklin lately, not Hubbard. Add Wills to the mix now. I know it’s not perfect.

But comparing 4-5 years in context, I think I stand by my logic. I admit when I first looked at the group I really didn’t know how I would decide between those 2. Really can’t go wrong either way.

[MWil23]

18 minutes ago, RTTRUTH said:

Well I appreciate PFF, for what it’s worth. Though like possibly every metric, they get at least 1 of every 8 wrong.

Could Teller be a good example? Well the team thought enough of his play to give him $14,000,000AAV after that season. So it’s possible.

Teller wasn't paid until towards the end of 2020 after he had a MASSIVE BREAKOUT season. He was essentially bad in Buffalo, Cleveland traded for him and he was bad in 2019, then they completely switched schemes and he vaulted to become about as good of an offensive guard as there is in the entire league. He only started 9 games in 2019. Their entire OT and RG situation was a constant revolving door of inept play and injuries.

18 minutes ago, RTTRUTH said:

But Jack Conklin lately, not Hubbard.

Conklin got hurt the 7th game of the season last year, Hubbard missed the entire season last year, and the Browns started their 3rd string RT most of the year last year.

18 minutes ago, RTTRUTH said:

Add Wills to the mix now. I know it’s not perfect.

Wills has been kind of up and down and played hurt a lot last year and missed 4 games. So, 1/4 of the season Chubb was playing without his Top 3 OT. Even when he was healthy he was below a 70 on PFF. In 2020 he was a 61.5 and last year he was a 66.

18 minutes ago, RTTRUTH said:

But comparing 4-5 years in context, I think I stand by my logic. I admit when I first looked at the group I really didn’t know how I would decide between those 2. Really can’t go wrong either way.

My point in taking 2019 into context was to show you that Nick Chubb is still an elite/has proven that he's an elite RB even with average and bad offensive line play. No doubt in 2020 he had an elite and healthy OL, albeit the COVID issues they had down the stretch in 2020 and the fact that they had to sign dudes off the street to play in Week 17 and a playoff game that year are also worth mentioning. 2019 it was a bad one, and 2021 it was relatively average due to injuries.

[Soko]

On 8/25/2022 at 11:21 AM, MWil23 said:

I mean, let's swap quarterback and wide receiver play and see how that removes an 8th or 9th guy from the box for Nick Chubb. That alternative universe argument works both ways.

I’m not advocating for Mixon>Chubb because OL, but I don’t think anyone seriously considers WR/QB play to be anywhere near as valuable to a running back as offensive line play lol. Elite run blocking + crap receivers/QB > crap run blocking + elite receivers/QB. 

Plus, it’s been proven that stacked boxes have way more to do with formation (and down/distance) than it does personnel. A team isn’t going to keep 9 in the box against the Browns if Cleveland is rolling out 10 or 11 personnel, just because their receivers aren’t that good. They’re going to match. Likewise, if the Bengals are putting out 12 or 22 personnel with both tight ends in-line, the defense isn’t going to keep 6 or 7 guys inside just because Chase is out there and Burrow’s throwing it to him. 

Edited August 26, 2022 by Yin-Yang

[MWil23]

Just now, Yin-Yang said:

I’m not advocating for Mixon>Chubb because OL, but I don’t think anyone seriously considers WR/QB play to be anywhere near as valuable to a running back as offensive line play lol. Elite run blocking + crap receivers/QB > crap run blocking + elite receivers/QB. 

If people are foolish enough to believe that an extra defender being removed from the box is somehow not nearly as valuable, I've got some great ocean-view real estate to sell you in Kansas.

Just now, Yin-Yang said:

Plus, it’s been proven that stacked boxes have way more to do with formation than it does personnel. A team isn’t going to keep 9 in the box against the Browns if Cleveland is rolling out 10 or 11 personnel, just because the lie receivers aren’t that good. They’re going to match. Likewise, if the Bengals are putting out 12 or 22 personnel with both tight ends in-line, the defense isn’t going to keep 6 or 7 guys inside just because Chase is out there and Burrow’s throwing it to him. 

I could show you a BUNCH of games last year complete with commentary about the inability to remove the 8th man from the box even in 3 or 4 wide formations. That's the entire base setup and concept between a single high and 2 high scheme.

[Soko]

19 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

If people are foolish enough to believe that an extra defender being removed from the box is somehow not nearly as valuable, I've got some great ocean-view real estate to sell you in Kansas.

Whoosh. 

Under the premise that bad QB + bad WRs = stacked box, then yes. But if that were the case, Dalvin Cook (and Alexander Mattison) wouldn’t have a higher rush rate against stacked boxes than David Montgomery. 

Kamara and Ingram in NO (before Ingram left for Baltimore) were seeing complete opposite defenses for the most part. Ingram was seeing 8+ in the box on 40%+ of his rushes and Kamara was seeing them for less than half of that. Is it because Brees and Michael Thomas magically turned crappy when Ingram was on the field? Or is it that Ingram was generally used on shorter distance runs with heavier personnel?

Back in the 49ers days, Kaepernick wasn’t quite seen as a bum yet and Russ wasn’t prime Russ. Lynch saw pedestrian boxes, Gore saw heavy boxes. Not because Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin, and Vernon Davis were bums, but because Roman used a dumb amount of sets with only a single receiver out there. 

No one would pretend that having weapons and a QB does absolutely nothing for a running back. But run blocking matters a lot more & the players on the field effect personnel less than you believe. 

19 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

I could show you a BUNCH of games last year complete with commentary about the inability to remove the 8th man from the box even in 3 or 4 wide formations. That's the entire base setup and concept between a single high and 2 high scheme.

I would love to see all these plays where the Browns have 4 wide receivers out wide and the defense has 8 men in the box (meaning multiple plays of a wide receiver literally uncovered or at best a zero defense). I’d love to see it. 

[MWil23]

 

https://heavy.com/sports/2019/07/nick-chubb-stats-cleveland-browns-news/amp/

 

Edited August 26, 2022 by MWil23