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Scherzer HoF Chances?

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2 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

No.

The real question is should we ever see another 300 game winner? If you're a team are you really maximizing what a SP can do for you nowadays if you have a workload that extreme consistently?

I think it could be possible still.  If someone breaks out at age 22-23 and is dominant and healthy for a 10 year stretch then they could have over 200 wins over that time.  Then they go another 8 years averaging 13 wins a year as a crafty veteran.  Obviously they need to be on a good team as the win stat is so subjective, but it's possible.  Just highly improbable as you need a player to be great, be great early, hold up over a 18 year career, and be on a good to great team for most of that time.

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9 minutes ago, THE DUKE said:

I think it could be possible still.  If someone breaks out at age 22-23 and is dominant and healthy for a 10 year stretch then they could have over 200 wins over that time.  Then they go another 8 years averaging 13 wins a year as a crafty veteran.  Obviously they need to be on a good team as the win stat is so subjective, but it's possible.  Just highly improbable as you need a player to be great, be great early, hold up over a 18 year career, and be on a good to great team for most of that time.

Even dominant guys don't average near 20 wins/year nowadays. If you're good enough that young, you're probably having TJS over that 10 year window. Even if you're like Kershaw and it's not the elbow, people are throwing hard enough today that you're going to have some longer absences. And if they're on a good enough team to get them a bunch of wins, they're also on a good enough team to be in the playoffs. So you're probably going to have a team try to manage workload and cut down a few starts in the regular season that further reduces it.

I think @mse326's version of a somehow super young Dallas Keuchel type that hands around forever and holds velocity is the more likely than the typical young flamethrowing study.

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I mean some of the recent guys only got to 300 wins from pitching into their 40s.  That's pretty hard to project from guys who aren't already in their mid-30s and still effective.

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5 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

No.

The real question is should we ever see another 300 game winner? If you're a team are you really maximizing what a SP can do for you nowadays if you have a workload that extreme consistently?

I mean yes if a guy pitches until he's like 45. 

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I mean Kershaw has 144 wins and he's 29, if he stays healthy do we not think he can average 15 wins a year for the next 10ish years?  That's a big if and not saying its likely, per se, but certainly possible. 

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I think its very premature to say we will never see another 300 game winner.  People like Roger Clemens and Tom Seaver also had plenty of 10-14 win seasons throughout their career, also missed parts of seasons with injuries, etc.  Yes a few 20+ win seasons definitely helped moved them along but its not like they won 25 games 12 years in a row and then retired.  Its all about longevity.  Kershaw has also won 21 games twice in his career.  And he would've won 20+ games this years without an injury.  He's going to be on one of the 5 best teams in baseball for the next decade.  I think he's got a very good shot to be over 200 wins within a few years and still in his early 30s.

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****, Scherzer is 40 games ahead of the most recent 300 game winners pace.  Whose to say he wont pitch until he's 45.

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He's got crazy good stats.. for for me, IMO, I think he needs another couple of years at this level in order to be considered for a HoF bid..

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