The Justin Fields watch thread

[Madmike90]

2 minutes ago, abstract_thought said:

Any regime would let him play. That's literally the bare minimum for developing him. But what are they doing to support him? So far it seems like the plan is:

1. Limit his exposure by running the ball a lot.
2. Get into heavy sets and use max protection to keep him clean.
3. Run a lot of stretch bootlegs to get him on the move.

None of that is really working in Fields' favor so far. The heavy running hasn't allowed him to get into a rhythm. Many plays have 3 guys running routes and they're all covered. And the stretch action is mostly turning into QB runs. Fields' overall mechanics look completely out-of-sorts.

Getsy needs to prioritize getting Fields right. This is a rebuilding year. Treat it like one.

We are a team and as much as I completely agree that developing Fields should be right at the top of the list as someone you want to develop not every single thing can be all about him...firstly because it would be far too much pressure on him...secondly there are a lot of guys who we are trying to develop all at the one time...thirdly because we still need to win games IMO.

[JAF-N72EX]

24 minutes ago, Madmike90 said:

We are a team and as much as I completely agree that developing Fields should be right at the top of the list as someone you want to develop not every single thing can be all about him...firstly because it would be far too much pressure on him...secondly there are a lot of guys who we are trying to develop all at the one time...thirdly because we still need to win games IMO.

If putting too much pressure on him would make him fold then he wasn't ever going to cut it in the NFL anyways.

[Madmike90]

Just now, JAF-N72EX said:

If putting too much pressure on him would make him fold then he wasn't ever going to cut it in the NFL anyways.

Asking any QB in the NFL to do everything for an offence in the NFL will lead to failure...even Allen missed a wide open receiver in the endzone against the Dolphins because it was all on his shoulders...you need balance in what these guys are asked to do.

[JAF-N72EX]

Just now, Madmike90 said:

Asking any QB in the NFL to do everything for an offence in the NFL will lead to failure...even Allen missed a wide open receiver in the endzone against the Dolphins because it was all on his shoulders...you need balance in what these guys are asked to do.

Good QBs have a killer instinct that can't be taught and you only find that out if you give them a chance.  We've seen what coddling does to QBs.

The focus should've been building around him and using this season to see if he can be a long term starter.

[Madmike90]

1 minute ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Good QBs have a killer instinct that can't be taught and you only find that out if you give them a chance.  We've seen what coddling does to QBs.

The focus should've been building around him and using this season to see if he can be a long term starter.

Again I don’t disagree he has to be given opportunities…but at the same time I am seeing a lot of plays when guys are getting open and he is just holding onto the ball and not ripping it…this isn’t down to play call…it’s down to Fields…now of course he might be playing scared or he might be being told don’t make the mistake…we can’t know which one it is…

I agree we have to see what we have in Fields over the course of a full season…not a few games…I do however think we have to be more open minded to developing this team overall than just one guy…IMO it would be coddling him to do nothing but set everything up for him…more to it than that IMO.

[abstract_thought]

53 minutes ago, Madmike90 said:

We are a team and as much as I completely agree that developing Fields should be right at the top of the list as someone you want to develop not every single thing can be all about him...firstly because it would be far too much pressure on him...secondly there are a lot of guys who we are trying to develop all at the one time...thirdly because we still need to win games IMO.

I agree that not every single thing can be about Fields. But right now the balance is too far from developing Fields. Some of those things (e.g. roster, coach selection) are water under the bridge until the offseason.

Others can be fixed now, starting with an offensive scheme that has neither made Fields look comfortable nor led to a lot of points scored.

Edited September 27, 2022 by abstract_thought

[JAF-N72EX]

You know how us Bears fans often joke about still being stuck in the 80's? Well, so far this season, Getsy is taking us back to the 60's.

Great write-up by Vincent Verhei

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2022/why-chicago-bears-are-protecting-justin-fields

Why the Chicago Bears Are Protecting Justin Fields

NFL Week 3 - The Chicago Bears threw barely any passes against San Francisco in Week 1, but we chalked it up to a rainstorm. Then they threw even fewer against Green Bay in Week 2, but we wrote it off as a fluke. After a third consecutive game where they did everything they could to hide Justin Fields, however, it's becoming clear: this year's Bears are turning into one of the most run-heavy teams in NFL history.

Fields threw 17 passes against Houston on Sunday, matching his sum from the 49ers game. In between, he only threw 11 passes against the Packers. That's a total of 45 Chicago pass attempts in three games, 10 fewer than any other team—and that's before Monday Night Football, when the New York Giants (55 passes in their first two games) face the Dallas Cowboys (73). By the time the sun rises on Tuesday morning, the Atlanta Falcons will probably be next to last in passes thrown with 79—still 75% more than the Bears. (Indeed, the Giants threw 37 passes on Monday night, while the Cowboys threw 31.)

Meanwhile, Chicago has run the ball 104 times, second only to the 114 of Cleveland. (These are all official NFL totals, which means defensive pass interference penalties don't count, but spikes and kneeldowns do. And quarterback scrambles count as rushing plays—Fields has run 27 times for 95 yards this season, including 79 yards on 10 scrambles.) That's more than twice as many runs as passes, but we haven't counted sacks yet, and Fields has somehow taken 10 sacks despite dropping back only two or three times per drive. Only four quarterbacks have taken more sacks this year. This somewhat explains Chicago's reluctance to pass—Fields will never get any better if he's stuck in a body cast.

That leaves us with 104 runs and 55 pass plays for the Bears, a run/pass ratio of 1.89, by far the highest in the league. In fact, over a full season, it would be the highest for any NFL team in 45 years, since the Raiders and Patriots both hit it in 1977. But this undersells how run-heavy the Bears are compared to their peers because it's ignoring what the rest of the league has been doing. Thanks largely to the pass-happy attacks in the AFL, there were slightly more passes than runs in the 1960s, but that stopped in a big way after the merger, with the NFL's average run/pass ratio hitting 1.22 in the 1970s. It has been steadily dropping since then, to 0.90 in the 1980s, 0.80 in both the 1990s and 2000s, and 0.72 since 2010. So far in 2022, the average NFL team has a run/pass ratio of 0.68, which would be the lowest of any season in our data, and that's even with the Bears skewing things heavily toward the run.

The top 30 teams in raw run/pass ratio all played in the 1950s or 1970s, with the 1950 New York Giants leading the way at 2.75, but this year's Bears stand out as a run-heavy team in an outrageously pass-heavy era. Dividing Chicago's run/pass ratio by the 2022 average gives us a Modified Run/P*** ratio (or MoRP, which is really fun to say) of 2.77, which is absolutely unheard of. Those 1950 Giants (2.05) are the only other team to double their league's average run/pass ratio. Quite a few teams of more recent vintage, however, appear right behind them. The 2004 Pittsburgh Steelers finish in second place with a MoRP of 1.91, along with the Jets of 2009 (1.85) and the Ravens of both 2019 (1.82) and 2020 (1.76). You can't really compare Lamar Jackson to anyone else as a quarterback, but it's worth noting that those Steelers and Jets were both playing rookies at the position in Ben Roethlisberger and Mark Sanchez. This suggests that teams tend to go run-heavy when they're protecting younger passers.

What's even more unusual about Chicago's anemophobia is that they have often been playing from behind, scoring 52 points in three games while allowing 57. Simple linear regression of every team since 1950 tells us the Bears should have a MoRP of 0.98, passing slightly more and running slightly less than an average team this season. The difference between Chicago's expected MoRP and actual MoRP is 1.79, more than twice that of any team on record. The following team shows the top 12 teams in this category since 1950. The Bears are threatening a record set 50 years ago by … the Chicago Bears.

 

 

It turns out that run-heavy offenses, like deep dish pizza and Italian beef, are a Chicago tradition—Fields is likely to be the fourth Bears quarterback on this table, should he survive the year. At the top we find Bobby Douglass, a key contributor to the Bears' running game in 1972—his 968 rushing yards that year were a record for quarterbacks for 34 years until Michael Vick broke it in 2006, and surpassed since then only by Lamar Jackson (in both 2019 and 2020). Though Douglass had started 15 games across his first three seasons, 1972 was his first year as a full-time starter, showing again how teams like to protect young quarterbacks. The same holds true for Jack Concannon; after three years spent mostly on the bench in Philadelphia, he joined the Bears in 1967 and became a regular starter for the first time. He spent most of that year handing off to Gale Sayers and Brian Piccolo, also running for 279 yards and three touchdowns himself. Jim McMahon was in his third season in 1984, and already racking up the injuries. Chicago's devotion to the run that year may have been driven by a devotion to keep McMahon upright—they actually had a higher run/pass ratio in the nine games he started (1.99) than in the seven games he missed (1.21).

It turns out that most quarterbacks here were also young and/or unproven. We already mentioned that Roethlisberger and Sanchez were rookies. So was Joe Ferguson with the Bills in 1973, when Orenthal James Simpson broke the 2,000-yard barrier. Charlie Conerly was in his second year as a starter in 1950; he would go on to finish second in MVP voting behind Johnny Unitas in 1959. Doug Flutie, who began his NFL career as a teammate of McMahon's in Chicago, was a starter for the first time in 1988 in New England.

The few veterans here are an odd mix. Sammy Baugh was in his last full season in 1951 before splitting time in 1952 with Eddie LeBaron … who would qualify on his own in 1958, when he made the Pro Bowl on a team that finished 11th out of 12 teams in pass attempts. As for Steve Grogan, he was a seasoned 29-year-old with the Patriots in 1982, the strike-shortened season likely skewing his team's statistics.

If teams that go run-heavy usually do so to protect inexperienced passers, does that mean teams that throw a lot are usually built around great quarterbacks? The list of the most pass-heavy teams since 1950 show the answer is a resounding "yes."

 

The run 'n' shoot Houston Oilers of the early 1990s dominate this table, finishing in first, second, eighth, and 12th place. In an era when most teams were still using split-back formations, and motion tight ends called H-backs were considered cutting edge, the Oilers got themselves a Hall of Fame quarterback and put him on the field with four wide receivers on virtually every snap. They weren't alone—the Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons both reached the playoffs in 1991 using similar schemes, and seasons when those franchises are simultaneously successful are rare indeed—but nobody took it to extremes like Warren Moon and the Oilers.

Not surprisingly, Moon is not the only Hall of Fame passer we see here—Dan Fouts, Dan Marino, and Tom Brady (just last year with the Buccaneers) also appear. So do Norm Van Brocklin and Bob Waterfield, who spent the 1950 season swapping in and out for the Rams. Tobin Rote is not in the Hall of Fame, but he won championships in both the NFL (1957 Lions) and AFL (1963 Chargers), and he deserves extra credit for the load he carried for the 1951 Packers—not only was he throwing the ball for one of the most pass-happy teams of all time, but he also ran 76 times for 523 yards and three touchdowns, leading Green Bay in all three categories.

Frank Tripucka is not in the Hall of Fame either, but he had a long, intriguing career. He spent six years in the NFL and seven in the CFL before joining the fledgling AFL in its first season in 1960. The most experienced quarterback in the early days of that league, it's no surprise that he was its top volume passer that season and again in 1962. He only played two games for Denver in 1963, then made a brief return to Canada before retiring. As for Tommy Kramer and Bill Kenney … look, you got me. Both had been starters for several forgettable seasons by the time their teams qualified for this list, and had done little to show they were more than average starters. Why the Vikings and Chiefs decided to let them go hog-wild, I have no idea. Kenney never made the top 10 in pass attempts again, spending the rest of his career in a never-ending duel with Todd Blackledge. Kramer at least stuck as Minnesota's starter for most of the 1980s, making the Pro Bowl and leading the league in passer rating in 1986.

Lastly, we should note that as of right now, the 2022 Buffalo Bills would finish on top of this table with a MoRP over expected of -0.627, the most pass-heavy offense on record when accounting for era and scoreboard. However, unlike Chicago, they're not likely to finish there by the end of the season—they're much closer to the teams in the second table than the Bears are to the teams in the first, meaning they're more likely to fall back to the pack as we get a larger sample size, and especially when the harsh winds start to blow off Lake Erie later in the year.

[Madmike90]

7 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

I agree that not every single thing can be about Fields. But right now the balance is too far from developing Fields. Some of those things (e.g. roster, coach selection) are water under the bridge until the offseason.

Others can be fixed now, starting with an offensive scheme that has neither made Fields look comfortable nor led to a lot of points scored.

Again I don’t believe the scheme is the blame…there have been opportunities for Fields to throw it on multiple levels and he has just hung onto the ball for way too long and the chance has pasted…same reason I don’t blame the OL for the sacks and high pressure rate…it’s not all on them and a lot of it is on Fields…now at the same time does the weapons need to be better as well? Absolutely…but again we are 12 quarters into this thing…everyone is learning and adjusting on the fly…this thing is going to take time and as we all know more talent coming through the door.

[dll2000]

Fields needs some grace from fans and media.  

They changed his mechanics and footwork which is not an easy change.   He is in a new system and he didn't get a ton of work last year.  They brought in no top talent FAs or draft picks and they let most talented WR walk.   He has gotten hit a ton in his early career and hard.  Including this year.  Some of that is his fault, but that can mess with you too.   

Brady, Rodgers, Jimmy G., Carr, Murray and Wilson all struggled to move ball last week as well.   Not as bad as Fields stats wise, but they weren't crossing goal line with a lot of favorable chances given by their defenses.

Wilson has struggled all year in a new system with much better weapons than Fields.   They keep saying he needs time in a new system.   He is a 10 year vet.  

Point is those guys don't all suck.   

We have seen glimpses of real talent from Fields.  I don't know why everyone is in full panic at this point.   I guess it's because 3 of anything is a trend to people and we had 3 bad games in a row.  

I agree regime didn't help him for this year. 

My plan was public - bring in Chark and trade for Cooper and at least two good FA OL to add to Mooney and Kmet.   I would have drafted Pickens and probably an OT with first two picks.  

Regime decided to bring in all cast off WRs/TEs and one FA center and spend 3rd round and lower on offense.  They went defense with first 2 picks and main focus of FA. 

 So almost nothing offensively of note at all for 2022 from an already bad offensive unit.   That is water under bridge now, it doesn't matter what any of us would have done, it isn't what happened.   Also not saying my plan would have worked better in alt Universe, but who knows?    

We still need to see improved play with what he has to work with.   He has open guys in his (likely) progression (I don't know his total progression on all concepts and can only guess), but he just isn't seeing the open man.   

At same time we have to remember, historically most good QBs on bad teams play badly.   Rarely does a QB lift an entire offensive poor talent base on his shoulders. 

Even good QBs need some high end talent around them to look good.

 

[Madmike90]

Really interesting point brought up on Hoge & Jahns podcast about QBs in this offence and how year one can be a struggle...

Aaron Rodgers

2018...62.3% completion pct...4,442 yards...7.4 YPA...25 TD...2 INTs...97.2 passer rating.

(LaFleur 1st year)...2019...62% completion pct...4,002 yards...7.0 YPA...26 TD...4 INT...95.5 passer rating.

(LaFleur year two)...2020...70.7% completion pct...4,299 yards...8.2 YPA...48 TDs...5 INT...121.5 passer rating.

 

Russell Wilson

2020...68.8% completion pct...4,212 yards...7.5 YPA...40 INT...13 INT...105.1 passer rating.

(Waldron 1st year)...2021...64.8% completion pct...3,113 yards...7.8 YPA...25 TD...6 INT...103.1 passer rating.

(Hackett 1st year so far)...59.4% completion pct...743 yards...7.0 YPA...2 TD...1 INT...83.2 passer rating. (small sample size)

 

Joe Burrow

(Taylor 1st year)...65.3% completion pct...2,688 yards...6.7 YPA...13 TD...5 INT...89.8 passer rating (10 games)

(Taylor 2nd year)...70.4% completion pct...4,611 yards...8.9 YPA...34 TD...14 INT...108.3 passer rating.

 

When Shanahan finally got Jimmy G fit after 2 short seasons they went to the super bowl in year 3...will be interesting to see what Zach Wilson does when he returns in year two of the system...as much as we need more from Fields this is something worth keeping an eye on.

[JAF-N72EX]

There's no denying both Hackett and Getsy have been trash and so far it's looking like they were simply riding Rodgers coat tails much like Nagy was riding Reid/Mahomes.

[Madmike90]

46 minutes ago, JAF-N72EX said:

There's no denying both Hackett and Getsy have been trash and so far it's looking like they were simply riding Rodgers coat tails much like Nagy was riding Reid/Mahomes.

Haven't watched much of the Broncos but again it is way too soon to say Getsy has been trash IMO...sure there have been calls I would disagree with and there is no doubt the passing game is way behind where we need it to be but at the same time the OL looks way better than expected and the running game has been exceptional so far...small sample size both negative and positive.

[Madmike90]

 

Shows the value Siemian adds with his experience and that Getsy isn't just going to try screaming at the kid...I get the impression no one would be harder on Fields than himself so this is the right sort of approach to take IMO.

[JAF-N72EX]

24 minutes ago, Madmike90 said:

 

Shows the value Siemian adds with his experience and that Getsy isn't just going to try screaming at the kid...I get the impression no one would be harder on Fields than himself so this is the right sort of approach to take IMO.

I wish someone would scream at him for not holding on to the ball.  First it was fumbles and now he's letting the ball slip out of hands leading to INTs.

[Madmike90]

1 minute ago, JAF-N72EX said:

I wish someone would scream at him for not holding on to the ball.  First it was fumbles and now he's letting the ball slip out of hands leading to INTs.

Not sure that is really going to help hahaha