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Russ signs 5-year, $245M contract


AnAngryAmerican

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Looking at the structure, this sure looks like a 3 year window for Paton/Hackett/Russy, followed by a fork in the road after the 2024 season. If things are going well, you restructure this contract, add some voidable years, push the pain down the road a little further. If things explode, 2025-26 probably turn into a transition period, with a new regime needing to eat a couple of crappy years at the back end of this deal while rebuilding the rest of the roster. 
 

Seems like a reasonable strategy to me.

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10 hours ago, jsthomp2007 said:

Seems like a relatively good deal compared to having to pay someone like Kyler Murray or Aaron Rogers who put up really great stats, but haven't done much else.  I know Rogers has the one Super Bowl, Russ has one and has been to another...in the end, Russ seems way more productive at a cheaper price. Thank you Walmart...and thank you Chuck Norris. 

You might want to keep in mind that Russ's two SB appearances occurred during a 4 year run where the Seahawks had the best defense in the NFL and one of the best all time. Also, the offense was run heavy and averaged 4.3 YPC his first appearance and 5.3 YPC his second.

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10 hours ago, AKRNA said:

You might want to keep in mind that Russ's two SB appearances occurred during a 4 year run where the Seahawks had the best defense in the NFL and one of the best all time. Also, the offense was run heavy and averaged 4.3 YPC his first appearance and 5.3 YPC his second.

Yeah, but that is my brand of football, and I think it is yours too.  I know Russ won't lose games.  If anything he will keep you in the ball game to till the last second.  I think with this signing if the Broncos can gain some depth, fortify the offensive line, and get just a few more defensive pieces, then I think the next five years are going to be some of the best we have had. 

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14 hours ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

The way they structured the deal actually saves us cap space this year and next. Spotrac has us at $10.5M in space this year, up about $2m from when I last checked after cutdown day.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/denver-broncos/cap/

 

I guess that means we have a 2 year window unless the new cap drastically changes the dynamics of how to build a SB winning team. Realistically, the broncos are not likely going to win the SB this season. Too much change. It will take a while to get that institutional knowledge, for coaches as well as players to learn their new roles.

But this last year aside, the 10% rule (no team has won a SB when a single player has taken up >10% of the cap) still applies. Hell, @AKRNA points out the running game and defense for Russ’s two SBs while not even mentioning that both occurred while he was on his rookie contract. Not a coincidence. Also not a coincidence that the chiefs fell off after PM2 got paid. 
 

So even with the rise of the cap, unless it rises to a half billion dollars a year, I think the broncos will be playing the role of the bridesmaid (so close but never quite there) for years to come.

all of that said, it’s still a far cry better than what we have gone through the last 7 years lol. But it’s just to reiterate the point that teams with QBs on Rookie contracts (or Tom Brady who takes well below market value contracts) win SBs. 

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28 minutes ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

I guess that means we have a 2 year window unless the new cap drastically changes the dynamics of how to build a SB winning team. Realistically, the broncos are not likely going to win the SB this season. Too much change. It will take a while to get that institutional knowledge, for coaches as well as players to learn their new roles.

But this last year aside, the 10% rule (no team has won a SB when a single player has taken up >10% of the cap) still applies. Hell, @AKRNA points out the running game and defense for Russ’s two SBs while not even mentioning that both occurred while he was on his rookie contract. Not a coincidence. Also not a coincidence that the chiefs fell off after PM2 got paid. 
 

So even with the rise of the cap, unless it rises to a half billion dollars a year, I think the broncos will be playing the role of the bridesmaid (so close but never quite there) for years to come.

all of that said, it’s still a far cry better than what we have gone through the last 7 years lol. But it’s just to reiterate the point that teams with QBs on Rookie contracts (or Tom Brady who takes well below market value contracts) win SBs. 

With the way that GMs and cap experts have figured out how to do all kinds of gymnastics to manipulate the salary cap, I’m sure we’ll end up doing a bunch of restructures to push money into future years like every team does these days.

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That 10% figure continues to be discussed for some reason even though Brady has surpassed it twice, the Rams surpassed it last year and both Manning brothers have also surpassed it. Steve Young probably did too. Looks like Favre was just above 10% as well…

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4 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

That 10% figure continues to be discussed for some reason even though Brady has surpassed it twice, the Rams surpassed it last year and both Manning brothers have also surpassed it. Steve Young probably did too. Looks like Favre was just above 10% as well…

Yeah, Brady’s 2020 number was $25M in a $182.5M cap. Fun little note: that 13.7% cap hit is almost identical to Russy’s projected 13.8% hit in 2024. 
 

Like I said above, it’s a 3-year window.

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11 minutes ago, broncosfan_101 said:

Yeah, Brady’s 2020 number was $25M in a $182.5M cap. Fun little note: that 13.7% cap hit is almost identical to Russy’s projected 13.8% hit in 2024. 
 

Like I said above, it’s a 3-year window.

And they are probably underplaying the potential cap spike in 2024, so that is probably going to end up a bit lower than 13.8

I think the entire premise of this stuff is bull**** beyond the obvious “it helps when your QB is cheap” point. The sample size is small and nobody can ever present a tangible opportunity cost scenario that played out in real life and made the difference.

Edited by BroncoBruin
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3 hours ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

I guess that means we have a 2 year window unless the new cap drastically changes the dynamics of how to build a SB winning team. Realistically, the broncos are not likely going to win the SB this season. Too much change. It will take a while to get that institutional knowledge, for coaches as well as players to learn their new roles.

But this last year aside, the 10% rule (no team has won a SB when a single player has taken up >10% of the cap) still applies. Hell, @AKRNA points out the running game and defense for Russ’s two SBs while not even mentioning that both occurred while he was on his rookie contract. Not a coincidence. Also not a coincidence that the chiefs fell off after PM2 got paid. 
 

So even with the rise of the cap, unless it rises to a half billion dollars a year, I think the broncos will be playing the role of the bridesmaid (so close but never quite there) for years to come.

all of that said, it’s still a far cry better than what we have gone through the last 7 years lol. But it’s just to reiterate the point that teams with QBs on Rookie contracts (or Tom Brady who takes well below market value contracts) win SBs. 

It’s important to remember what @Broncofan has said about how the changes to the CBA allow money to pushed forward using voidable years now more easily than in years past. Additionally, the cap is going to up considerably over the next few years. If the cap hits $300m, which is entirely possible by 2025+, when Russ’s numbers get huge, even with a restructure, he’s still below 20% of the cap. It’s not going to be the 10% you mention, no, but 20% is manageable if you draft well (and the sample is small but I think George looks pretty good in that aspect). 

It’s rare that I disagree with you, you’ve forgotten more football than I’ll ever know, but, after the Chiefs paid Maholmes, they’ve gone 26-7 in the regular season, 4-2 in the playoffs, made the AFCCG both years and played in the SB where they lost to Bucs, led by the GOAT QB who had a chip on his shoulder and an absolutely stacked defense. I wouldn’t call that “falling off.” 

It’s entirely conceivable that come 2025 and beyond restructures are made (remember we have the richest owners in the NFL who can write a check for money up front without blinking an eye) and those cap hits go down to ~$40m, bringing Russ’s cap% down into the low teens. 

We will have to “pay the piper” one day, yes, but that day is likely going to be until 2028-2029 (or beyond), at which point Russ will be on the 18th green of his career and we will (likely) have drafted and developed the heir apparent. 

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I’ll add this, after the last 6 years, I’ll take being not only relevant but a serious contender for the next 6 years even if we don’t bring home a Lombardi.

I think with deep-pocketed owners who seem serious about being serious about football, an at least good, if not great, GM, a young hungry staff and a HOF QB guarantees that. 

I think of post-Elway years of Mike’s tenure, we didn’t win another Super Bowl but we were part of the national conversation year-in and year-out, we had the prime time games, we made the playoffs, we were a well regarded team and organization. That hasn’t been the case here since Peyton/Kubes left.

I think it’s back now, Russ is a huge part of that, yes, but the organizational infrastructure - ownership, front office, coaching staff, roster depth - at least appears to be as good as it’s been since at least 2015, if not 2005.

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Also worth noting that for all the talk about  rookie contract QBs and how that’s the way to win, since 2011 (birth of the modern rookie pay scale), only 2 of the 11 SB-winning QBs were on those rookie contracts. I won’t fight if you insist on including Wentz who didn’t play a single playoff game, but that’s still less than 30%. 

Seems to me the best strategy is to build up a talented roster first and then bring in the vet QB whose cap hits can be managed year to year with cap gymnastics and voidable years. 

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1 hour ago, BroncoBruin said:

Also worth noting that for all the talk about  rookie contract QBs and how that’s the way to win, since 2011 (birth of the modern rookie pay scale), only 2 of the 11 SB-winning QBs were on those rookie contracts. I won’t fight if you insist on including Wentz who didn’t play a single playoff game, but that’s still less than 30%. 

Seems to me the best strategy is to build up a talented roster first and then bring in the vet QB whose cap hits can be managed year to year with cap gymnastics and voidable years. 

Any handwringing about Russ is insane. It's essentially 3 (or 4?) years of guaranteed money? There is some downside of course, but the last year has essentially been a dream. We went from a dead organization that was arguably one of the most poorly run in the NFL, had a bottom 5 or so QB situation year in and year out, and had one of the worst coaching staffs in the NFL. Now we have an elite / borderline elite QB, richest owner in the NFL, a GM that looks top class, and a coaching staff that is admittedly TBD but actually existing in the 21st century. There is a chance Russ falls off a cliff athletically, but I will take that gamble every time considering where we are at as a franchise.

Another job well done by Paton. 

 

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4 minutes ago, champ11 said:

Any handwringing about Russ is insane. It's essentially 3 (or 4?) years of guaranteed money? There is some downside of course, but the last year has essentially been a dream. We went from a dead organization that was arguably one of the most poorly run in the NFL, had a bottom 5 or so QB situation year in and year out, and had one of the worst coaching staffs in the NFL. Now we have an elite / borderline elite QB, richest owner in the NFL, a GM that looks top class, and a coaching staff that is admittedly TBD but actually existing in the 21st century. There is a chance Russ falls off a cliff athletically, but I will take that gamble every time considering where we are at as a franchise.

Another job well done by Paton. 

 

Not to mention i would have to imagine another year or 2 of bad QB play would start affecting the bottom line of the org as a business.   People aren't going to an NFL game to watch 3 and outs 

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7 minutes ago, champ11 said:

Any handwringing about Russ is insane. It's essentially 3 (or 4?) years of guaranteed money? There is some downside of course, but the last year has essentially been a dream. We went from a dead organization that was arguably one of the most poorly run in the NFL, had a bottom 5 or so QB situation year in and year out, and had one of the worst coaching staffs in the NFL. Now we have an elite / borderline elite QB, richest owner in the NFL, a GM that looks top class, and a coaching staff that is admittedly TBD but actually existing in the 21st century. There is a chance Russ falls off a cliff athletically, but I will take that gamble every time considering where we are at as a franchise.

Another job well done by Paton. 

 

Absolutely. And they NEEDED the QB this year. It was time and the fanbase was beyond restless. For all the things we like about Paton and this coaching staff and even getting the richest owner which probably happens no matter what, imagine how jaded we’d be if it’s someone like Mariota at QB this year. We all tried to talk ourselves into the 10-7 and scrape into the playoffs with Teddy scenario last year. After that flamed out, you couldn’t sell that BS again. Quarterback league. 

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