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Russ signs 5-year, $245M contract


AnAngryAmerican

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7 hours ago, jsthomp2007 said:

Yeah, but that is my brand of football, and I think it is yours too.  I know Russ won't lose games.  If anything he will keep you in the ball game to till the last second.  I think with this signing if the Broncos can gain some depth, fortify the offensive line, and get just a few more defensive pieces, then I think the next five years are going to be some of the best we have had. 

But there's the rub jst. We gave up our 1st and 2nd this year and next, a couple of pretty good ballplayers and now we've really put a clamp on our FA cap space. IMO, you stack your roster before you you make the big jump for a QB, not after.

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3 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

But there's the rub jst. We gave up our 1st and 2nd this year and next, a couple of pretty good ballplayers and now we've really put a clamp on our FA cap space. IMO, you stack your roster before you you make the big jump for a QB, not after.

But they did. This is a very talented roster. The major pieces are in place. We’re talking about continuing to add depth and you don’t need first round picks to do that. Paton is one of the best evaluators in the sport, he’s going to find Day 3 gems, the 2022 group already looks promising with Mathis, Washington and Hennigsen impressing in camp. 

If you’re waiting to have the perfect roster before you get the QB, you’ll never get the QB. There is no perfect roster. You’ll always be thin somewhere. At this point the personnel is good enough to win a SB, it’s all about how the pieces come together under this staff which may take time. 

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3 hours ago, BroncoBruin said:

Also worth noting that for all the talk about  rookie contract QBs and how that’s the way to win, since 2011 (birth of the modern rookie pay scale), only 2 of the 11 SB-winning QBs were on those rookie contracts. I won’t fight if you insist on including Wentz who didn’t play a single playoff game, but that’s still less than 30%. 

Seems to me the best strategy is to build up a talented roster first and then bring in the vet QB whose cap hits can be managed year to year with cap gymnastics and voidable years. 

Let's take an even deeper dive, and just use the result of "getting an elite, top 10 difference-maker QB" from 2011 onwards (and I'll post a TL:DR version since the list is long):

First round drafted QB's that were/are elite:

Patrick Mahomes late-rd1 (obv)

Josh Allen 2016 1.7

Justin Herbert 1.6 (pretty clear he's there IMO)

Joe Burrow 1.1  (same) 

Andrew Luck 1.1

Cam Newton 1.1 (although he fizzled out, he was legit at his peak, at least until Von broke him)

________not clear, but to be generous, let's put them there:_________

Kyler Murray 1.1

Deshaun Watson mid-R1 (I actually would have put him as clear elite, but the lost time matters..for now)

Lamar Jackson late-rd1

 

Beyond first round drafted QB's you might argue did this:

Russell Wilson Rd3 (yes)

Dak Prescott 2018 Rd4 (debatable, but at least he's in the discussion)

Derek Carr 2.2 (same - and frankly, in his cheap rookie years, he only had 1 notable great year).

 

More importantly, all the QB's that were drafted high that failed to hit that elite/really good tier:

2011 - Locker, Gabbert, Ponder (3)

2012 - RG3, Tannehill, Weeden (3)

2013 - EJ Manuel (1)

2014 - Bortles, Manziel, Teddy B (3)

2015 - Winston 1.1, Mariota 1.2 (2)

2016 - Goff 1.1, Wentz 1.2, and of course....Paxton Freaking Lynch late R1 (3)

2017 - Trubiksy 1.2 (1 - lol ouch) (1)

2018 - Baker 1.1, Darnold 1.3 (2)

2019 - Tua (1.5), Jordan Love (late R1) (2)

2020 - Daniel Jones (1.6) (1)

I'll leave out 2021 & 2022 since it's still early.   But basically less than 1 in 3 1st round QB's taken even became very good/elite.    Doesn't mean it's not worth trying (because if you hit, it's the total jackpot).  But it's a total myth to portray like it's the choice teams should make every year.    If you look at that list, most years, there's only 1-2 teams who get the shot at the great QB - and almost every year but 2016 & 2018, we never had that shot.    

I realize that list is long, so here's the summary below lol.


As promised, TL:DR summary from the data above:

-Since 2010, there were 2 years in which we missed a shot at a rookie-contract QB when we were looking - 2016 with Dak , and 2018 with Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson (and there was zero chance Elway was going Lamar, we should acknowledge that).  Our Paxton Lynch decision also took us out of one of the best years to mine QB in 2017.     So for all the rookie-contract great QB's that came out, we never had a shot at all but 2 years.   There's no argument it's the Holy Grail - but it's seldom a realistic option.   

-Especially since 2020's TAM-TB signing now allows cap hell to pushed back an extra 3-4 years than before, it's not a 2 year window - but you can add 3-4 years with simple voidable-year restructures/extensions.  The only real risk with this deal is that Russell Wilson stops being a playoff-winning QB, can-win-game-on-my-talents-first type player.   If he's great, the cap hit is not an issue for 2022-23, and 2024-2026's numbers can be pushed back pretty easily.   And that's before you get the draft - if you hit a 2017-Saints level draft, that buys an extra 2-3 years of cap management, too.    Eventually, the bill comes due - but only when the team says "ok, we aren't contenders, let's just eat it now, and start over next year".

-So let's talk about Wilson's risk of decline.   There's no long-term injury risk with him from his prior injuries (unlike Stafford's back last year).   And while A-Rod & TB12 are pointed to as unicorns, Wilson shares 2 very key traits they do, that translates to aging well (and Stafford did too, except for a much higher injury decline risk with his back).   First, Russell's arm talent is elite, like A-Rod, TB12 (although his developed after he was drafted, thank you Alex Guerrero lol) & Matt Stafford (and why I pounded the table for Stafford as a target last year, too - which he proved in spades).  The 2nd trait they all share - they're protected by the NFL's rules in a way the 1980's and even 1990's QB's weren't.   

So if Russ is still great - the cap hit will not be a problem even in 2024-26.   Before 2020, it was definitely challenging.  But the TB-Brady voidable year restructure/extension has basically let every contending team extend their window even with cap challenges for 3+ years more.   So if he's great and we're good, we'll be fine cap-wise not just for 2022-23, but likely at least to 2026 (and we can likely repeat the same 1x even after 2023 gets this treatment).

Edited by Broncofan
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5 hours ago, AKRNA said:

But there's the rub jst. We gave up our 1st and 2nd this year and next, a couple of pretty good ballplayers and now we've really put a clamp on our FA cap space. IMO, you stack your roster before you you make the big jump for a QB, not after.

The draft picks we gave up do hurt, no doubt about it. Four premium picks is a steep price, even for a HOF QB with at least 5 prime years left. But the players - Drew Lock is trash (and I was Lock's biggest fan around here for a long time before I could no longer ignore reality, which has been proven again in Seattle), Noah Fant is replaceable and Shelby Harris is a good, far from great player, who is already on the downside of his career.

5 hours ago, BroncoBruin said:

If you’re waiting to have the perfect roster before you get the QB, you’ll never get the QB. There is no perfect roster. You’ll always be thin somewhere. At this point the personnel is good enough to win a SB, it’s all about how the pieces come together under this staff which may take time. 

Look at the Colts - they had more Pro Bowlers than anyone last year, they have great players at every position group on the field but since Andrew Luck retired they haven't won a playoff game (27-22, 0-1 playoffs). A washed-up Rivers couldn't do it, neither could Wentz despite being reunited with his former coach. Matt Ryan is another band-aid. Chris Ballard is widely viewed as an elite GM (as well he should be) but he hasn't found a QB yet since Luck's departure and thus the mediocrity despite the elite roster. George did not want to get himself caught in that mess and when the opportunity to land a bonafide stud, who has a ring, legitimate leadership skills and a sterling reputation off the field, he jumped at it and paid a fair price. We didn't have to give up Bolles, Javonte, PS2, Simmons or one of the WRs to get it done either.  

Edited by AnAngryAmerican
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On 9/1/2022 at 9:58 AM, BullsandBroncos said:

Weird how we are the only fan base that doesn't think he's "washed."

I don't agree with this sentiment most people hate on qb contracts in general.  And most people hate on the draft compensation we gave up to aquire Wilson. They fail to acknowledge that sometimes you have to go all in to win big. When a team gives up good draft capital and good money to get a player it's easy for the common fan to hate on it because unless said QB wins a Superbowl you're gonna look smart. 

 

I support this moves because we're talking about competing for a Superbowl now it's nice to be in the conversation. 

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Great post AAA. The Colts are the team traditionalists would talk about being “built the right way”. They haven’t saddled themselves with bad free agent deals and have typically had a high volume of draft picks, with solid returns. They have elite players on both sides of the trenches and lots of depth across the roster. 

And none of it matters because they are stuck trying to finish the job with average starting QBs. Paton was not going to let that happen. Fortune favors the bold. 

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7 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

I don't agree with this sentiment most people hate on qb contracts in general.  And most people hate on the draft compensation we gave up to aquire Wilson. They fail to acknowledge that sometimes you have to go all in to win big. When a team gives up good draft capital and good money to get a player it's easy for the common fan to hate on it because unless said QB wins a Superbowl you're gonna look smart. 

 

I support this moves because we're talking about competing for a Superbowl now it's nice to be in the conversation. 

Differences of opinion, but I don't think we're remotely in that conversation. Time will tell, but I doubt we ever win the AFC West in Wilson's tenure. 

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And yeah none of the players we traded were major losses at all. Lock is a bad quarterback. Fant is a maddeningly inconsistent and unreliable player who they weren’t going to pay. Shelby is a declining player who is probably more of an average starter than anything now, and probably will be a liability soon. 

Irs amazing for us that this was the group of players they asked for. Not one of them would have been on the team in 2023. 

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On 9/1/2022 at 1:13 PM, BroncoBruin said:

In his 12 healthy games last year he put up 25 TDs, 4 INTs. Those numbers prorated over a full season are comparable to his peak production. Who cares what fanbases think he’s washed lol 

What fanbases are saying he's washed? I think the argument is, he's not in that elite/all time QB (Rodgers, Brady) conversation. And he probably peaked as far as his prime is concerned. He's noticeably not the same guy with his feet as he was in his 20's. 

He's not a QB who can put a team on his back and take them to a Super Bowl. Could argue he never was as Seattle in their heyday had a historic caliber defense and amazing running game. 

Russel needs pieces in place and he needs that strong run game. Fortunately, he has that in Denver. But the defense is not champion caliber at the moment.

Russell will make the Broncos competitive. But between the contract and the draft picks given up, getting pieces in place to win in the AFC will be tough.

 

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7 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

What fanbases are saying he's washed? I think the argument is, he's not in that elite/all time QB (Rodgers, Brady) conversation. And he probably peaked as far as his prime is concerned. He's noticeably not the same guy with his feet as he was in his 20's. 

He's not a QB who can put a team on his back and take them to a Super Bowl. Could argue he never was as Seattle in their heyday had a historic caliber defense and amazing running game. 

Russel needs pieces in place and he needs that strong run game. Fortunately, he has that in Denver. But the defense is not champion caliber at the moment.

Russell will make the Broncos competitive. But between the contract and the draft picks given up, getting pieces in place to win in the AFC will be tough.

 

How many defenses in a given year are “championship caliber” and why isn’t this group? 

Also the contract really doesn’t become an obstacle until 2025

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1 hour ago, BroncoBruin said:

How many defenses in a given year are “championship caliber” and why isn’t this group? 

Also the contract really doesn’t become an obstacle until 2025

Point is, the Broncos are not getting to the Super Bowl bye just adding Russ. The AFC is stacked and he can't carry them. They need a top tier defense.   

Clearly the FO thinks the roster is built to win now and is trying to catch lightning in a bottle with Russ. Time will tell if they have the horses to compete for the playoffs. 

Not having the draft picks is the obstacle the next couple years.

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43 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

Point is, the Broncos are not getting to the Super Bowl bye just adding Russ. The AFC is stacked and he can't carry them. They need a top tier defense.   

Clearly the FO thinks the roster is built to win now and is trying to catch lightning in a bottle with Russ. Time will tell if they have the horses to compete for the playoffs. 

Not having the draft picks is the obstacle the next couple years.

And I think they have a top tier defense unless both Chubb and Gregory flame out this year. Very high ceiling group and it would be a huge disappointment if they don’t finish at least top 10. 

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Looking at what @big_palooka said, I did some very quick research. 

Seattle won the SB in 2013, went back and lost (but should have won) in 2014. Here are their team defense ranks (in scoring) after those years. 

2015: 1st (we were 4th and won the SB), 2016: 3rd, 2017: 14th, 2018: 11th, 2019: 22nd, 2020: 15th, 2021: 12th. 

Russ’s record as a starter those same years. 2015: 10-6, 2016: 10-5-1, 2017: 9-7, 2018: 10-6, 2019: 11-5, 2020: 12-4, 2021: 6-8 (he was injured and missed 3 games). 

That data shows that Russ does not require an elite defense to post a good record. In 2019, Seattle’s worst defensive year of the data set, Russ still led the team to an 11-5 record and posted a 31/6 TD/INT and 106.3 passer rating. In 2020, with a middle of the pack defense ranked 15th, he led them to 12-4 with a 40/13 TD/INT and a 105.1 rating. Furthermore, the argument that the AFCW is just too stacked for Russ to compete, take a look at the NFCW the latter half of Russ’s tenure in Seattle when he was facing McVay’s Rams (2 NFC champs, 1 SB win), Kyle’s Niners (1 NFC champ), and an ascending Arizona team. 

Yes, right now, the AFCW looks good on paper. The Chiefs will be legit, but they have had some attrition. The Chargers have loads of talent but they have had that before and are 0-1 in Super Bowls in 50+ years as a franchise. And the Raiders are coached by Josh McDaniels.

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