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Week 1 GDT: San Francisco 49ers vs Chicago Bears


J-ALL-DAY

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1 hour ago, Chrissooner49er said:

Is this their 1st or 2nd year without Mack? Off seasons sure seem a lot longer now.....

Yes Mack was there last year but only a few games before going on IR. Robert Quinn came back to life and was making plays every single week. Nobody else in that front 7 really stands out though (besides Roquan of course), it was a group effort with great coverage

 

Looking at some basic team stats, they actually were top 5 in the league last year in sacks.

Only blitzed 22% of the time, which is bottom 10.

But

Pressure % is bottom 10.

QB knock down % is bottom 2 & hurries are also bottom 5

Edited by adamq
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35 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Why? This team is going to run the crap out of the ball and that was going to happen with or without the winds. Our defense should be able to stop the Bears offense better than vice versa in these conditions. 

Because bad weather mitigates skill. I don't want anything that strips the talent advantage...the 49ers get no benefit from bad weather against a team like the Bears. 

Bad weather is how a team that can beat the hell out of Aaron Rodgers twice in the same year can struggle with Washington, one of the worst teams in the league. 

Put Buffalo and New England on a fair weather field and it's not close. We saw that twice last year. Put them in a snowstorm and suddenly New England can win. 

I don't want anything that takes away from a talent advantage and props up luck. 

 

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25 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Why? This team is going to run the crap out of the ball and that was going to happen with or without the winds. Our defense should be able to stop the Bears offense better than vice versa in these conditions. 

Bad conditions - specifically windy and wet conditions - both suppress the passing game. Gusts of over 15mph and rainfall of any real amount deal a real chunk to passing, both in terms of volume and efficiency. And while we are a good running team, what that means overall is that offense as a whole will be suppressed. And with offense suppressed, it drags teams that would be otherwise far apart talent-wise together. It tightens the margins between good teams and bad teams and increases the amount of and value of fluky plays like fumbles. Last year's Colts game had only a passing relation to how good the Colts and 49ers were. Even more directly, the 2019 49ers - WFT-manders game had just about nothing to do with how good those teams were. Plus, it means that the quarterback play as a whole is far more likely to be bad even if the team wins and avoiding that narrative to start the season is very much in the team's interest.

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It's fair to say that the talent gap between the two teams may be so great that it really doesn't matter, and taking the ball out of Trey's hands likely simplifies the offense and makes it less likely that we are simply going to give it away. Though it's worth noting that this Chicago team was just as bad last year and played the game fairly tight for the first three quarters last year. 

But if I'm the better team, I don't want anything that dampens the advantage of the talent disparity. 

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12 minutes ago, Forge said:

Because bad weather mitigates skill. I don't want anything that strips the talent advantage...the 49ers get no benefit from bad weather against a team like the Bears. 

Bad weather is how a team that can beat the hell out of Aaron Rodgers twice in the same year can struggle with Washington, one of the worst teams in the league. 

Put Buffalo and New England on a fair weather field and it's not close. We saw that twice last year. Put them in a snowstorm and suddenly New England can suddenly win. 

I don't want anything that takes away from a talent advantage and props up luck. 

Lol, that was a damn monsoon. While there will be 15 MPH winds, I don't think it's going to be nearly as bad as that. If it is? Then sure, that takes away some of our talent advantage. Lance also has a much better arm than Jimmy. I saw Jimmy against the Colts in person and it was not pretty but Wentz on the other hand was still able to make some plays because of his arm....Lance will be able to do the same. But obviously the concern is his already less than ideal accuracy. 

Anyways, our run game and defense should be able to take care of business.

9 minutes ago, JIllg said:

Bad conditions - specifically windy and wet conditions - both suppress the passing game. Gusts of over 15mph and rainfall of any real amount deal a real chunk to passing, both in terms of volume and efficiency. And while we are a good running team, what that means overall is that offense as a whole will be suppressed. And with offense suppressed, it drags teams that would be otherwise far apart talent-wise together. It tightens the margins between good teams and bad teams and increases the amount of and value of fluky plays like fumbles. Last year's Colts game had only a passing relation to how good the Colts and 49ers were. Even more directly, the 2019 49ers - WFT-manders game had just about nothing to do with how good those teams were. Plus, it means that the quarterback play as a whole is far more likely to be bad even if the team wins and avoiding that narrative to start the season is very much in the team's interest.

I already commented on the Colts game. The WFT game was different level bad with the conditions. If it that? Then fair play, but I don't think it is expected to be that bad.

And honestly, the Colts at that time looked like the slightly better team and even with the weather conditions, it was easy to see. We were not playing good ball at that time and our CB situation was less than ideal. Colts went on a nice run during that stretch as well. 

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I see this game being similar to the Tampa Opener a few years back. It will be tight for a time and then the Niners will open it up in the second half. Trey goes 16-22 hits a couple shots for 240 yards and a TD. Rushes for 45 yards. Defense stifles the Bears for a 31-13 win.

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I predict a sloppy game, and not just because of the weather.  All those guys on Twitter saying "Lance looked bad in the preseason," but didn't mention the O-line in the same breath...didn't watch the game.  Bears score early and we go into halftime down 3-7.  Bears don't score again and we finish with a 17-7 win that was ugly, but we'll take it.  Adjustments will be made and we thank the football Gods that the Bears were our first game.

Honestly, just glad football is back.  I've been watching more college football than I have in years.  So many people saying that Florida State / LSU game was horrible, but I thoroughly enjoyed it.  Those 55 to 0 games are unwatchable to me.  Give me a competitive game any day.  

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