Dangerous Optimism

[dll2000]

This going to more lengthy than just a post. More like an article, so I made it a thread. 

I started offseason overwhelmingly negative on Bears along with rest of country.  I did not care for our spring FA period or some of our releases.  I thought the lack of quality additions at OL and WR was malpractice with a 2nd year first round QB in tow.

We lost Robinson, Mack, Nichols, Hicks, Peters and Daniels amongst others and did not bring in any name replacements.  

We added Pringle, St. Brown, and Pettis (amongst others). These were guys cut loose by other teams for reasons of lack of production rather than money as they were all cheap.  Not a good indicator of future success. 

I did like the draft overall in real time even though I would have liked Bears to draft Pickens in 2nd at one of their slots.  Still can’t believe he was there for both.  

Still conventional and rational wisdom and on paper our overall receiving core, OL and DL is amongst worst in league. It doesn’t matter if you have Tom Brady at height of his powers, you are going to lose if that is the case. We don’t have Brady, we have a 2nd year QB who had some of worst stats in league his rookie year.  I can see why most people would assume major suckage in 2022.

Where I begin to diverge from above is actually watching the development of the players and how the big picture of the team is coming together.  I can’t be at practices, but I follow them and I watched one live and I watched all the preseason games.   My feeling at moment, and it is dangerous optimism as I am setting myself up to look the fool if Bears win 3 games, is that the big picture is not that bad.  Not nearly as bad as everyone is assuming even for 2022.  

So my three largest concerns and why I thought we would absolutely stink are OL, WR and DL.  Let’s take them in order.

So three different podcasts I listened to this week doing season previews are laughing at talent on the Bears Oline.   The jokes on Twitter are that Fields should be afraid, very afraid.  
 

They are largely basing this on Braxton Jones.  They don’t even say his name.  They say ‘the 5th round rookie.’  Which is telling because the attitude or assumption is drafted in 5th round equals suck.  On same podcasts they talk about Christian Darrisaw in glowing terms even though they also say he struggled last year.  But he has the first round pedigree so this year Darrisaw is presumably going to be awesome.  In Seattle preseason game versus Bears every excuse was given Charles Cross, a sure fire stud we are told, who had a horrendous showing that day.  

But to me that is same attitude as people assuming Maxx Crosby was bad and C Ferrell is a stud because of where they were drafted.   It doesn’t work that way.  You are simply following your biases and the narrative and not resetting based on current evidence.  

We brought in a vet in Reilly Reiff to play LT.  Someone most people would have been more comfortable starting on paper and guess what? He didn’t win the job.  It still hasn’t reset any opinions on Jones to date because people aren’t leaving their internal narrative yet.  

That being said, Jones has struggled at times against power rushes and against quick rushes due to hand placement. He is not perfect, but overall his play has not been terrible at all judged against the first and 2nd round round rookie OTs.  He is right there with them and better than most to date.  

OL was further maligned by offseason drama surrounding our last year 2nd round pick people had high hopes for.  He wasn’t practicing, was reportedly immature and Bears were seeking to trade him for a bag of chips and a soda.  

At same time the other legitimate concern was we have no viable NFL RG.  We have a gaping hole in our OL.  LOLs.  A few short weeks later both concerns have been seemingly solved with moving said 2nd round pick to RG where he is currently thriving.   

But people seemed to have missed this development as they write their articles and do their podcasts.  Seems like an important detail to me.  

Is it a world beating OL? No.  Is it shaping up to be the disaster it looked like early? Also no.  People are sleeping on this development when predicting a 2 or 3 win season. 

I would add that Borom quietly played really well down the stretch of last season at OT.  At least adequately. But because he is a mid round pick I think he too is assumed to suck.   I think you can add to perception that most people assume Daniels was very good and a huge loss to Bears because of his pedigree. He did not play well at all for Bears of late as Pitt is currently witnessing. 

Lets talk about WRs now.  People all say, ‘I like Mooney’ like he is a puppy.  Not really threatening in any significant way.  Like Scrappy doo.  Mooney has been good from day one, and has steadily gotten better due to an intense drive and work ethic. He is viewed as a decent two or a good three.  People are underestimating him vastly.  He has speed to go distance on any play.  He cannot be ignored.

Then they say Mooney is only threat.  I think that is a wrong assumption.  We picked up 3 guys once all thought of as future good WRs at one time in Pettis, Sharpe and St. Brown.  Sharpe is out.  Pettis looked pretty darn good in last preseason game.   St. Brown has reportedly been Fields second favorite WR target in practice.  St. Brown is a physical talent and his lessor physically talented brother is one of better WRs in league at moment.  It is not out of question that St. Brown shocks people this season.  

That brings me to Velus Jones who is being slept on due to injuries.  Jones showed game breaking speed in college and from preseason it looks like that speed is translating to NFL level.  He doesn’t have greatest hands, but he cannot be ignored because of his big play ability on any given play.  

Lastly the waiver pick up of Ihmir is not nothing.  This kid can play football.  Not a world beater, but he can hurt you.  He hurt Bears last season.  

I will also say, like I have always said, that QBs make WRs much more so than WRs make QBs.  People are sleeping on Fields due to last season.  Field is a true franchise QB.  He is good and getting better.  This is like his rookie year due to how he was handled so there will be struggles, but he would have been number 1 pick in this years draft.  He has thrown to many different players this preseason in limited reps and made everyone look good.   No reason to think that won’t continue into season if he stays healthy. 

Briefly, it isn’t just WRs QBs throw to in any event.  Kmet looks to have taken a giant leap forward in offseason.  Montgomery has always been an underrated receiving back.  Three good weapons is all offenses need to function and I think Mooney, Kmet and Montgomery qualify as three good weapons.  You want more obviously, but point is it isn’t the dumpster fire people are saying it is.

D line and conclusion will have to wait   I have to go.

 

[Superman(DH23)]

Well thought out and presented, I look forward to reading the rest of your thoughts.

[MonserinNC]

I'm pretty optimistic about the offense as well!

I don't know what people are talking about when they say we have no help.....like legit look at the Packers or even Chiefs rosters....or if you want talk young guys look at the Patriots and Jaguars roster....Fields has the most

The myth of not giving Fields any help is just lazy journalism

[MonserinNC]

I'm worried about the defense....a secondary starting 2 rookies, an entirely new dline, nick morrow basically the leader of the d after the Roqaun hold out....kind of a mess

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, MonserinNC said:

I'm worried about the defense....a secondary starting 2 rookies, an entirely new dline, nick morrow basically the leader of the d after the Roqaun hold out....kind of a mess

2 rookies, yes, but also 2 top 50 picks who have both looked good right out of the gate. This isn’t an Al Afalava situation. Roquan is back. I agree about the DL being a point of concern but at the same time if Quinn can be a 10 sack guy in 2022 (a significant step back from his 2021) I think we can get enough from Muhammad and Gipson to generate enough pass rush most of the time. 

[dll2000]

D line cont ...

So in most power rankings the Bears are 32 of 32.   Dead last.  The worst team in the league.  

A big factor in that prediction is the loss of Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks two of the Bears most talented players.  Funny that Nichols is never mentioned.   I think letting him go before his prime may have been the real mistake of the three.

Mack and Hicks have been amazing players in the league.  However, they are aging and have been oft injured in past two seasons.   If you are talking players at their best, these are huge losses.   If we are talking production, they had it when they were playing, but they have been playing less and less.   Going younger at a position is the way football works.   It is a young man's game.

Quinn is returning off his best ever season.   Best every by any Bear statistically and there have been a few good Bears D linemen over years.  Does he yo-yo in his career?  Yes, but he is playing his more natural position now and there is nothing set in stone that he will have an off year following a great one.   Will he be as good in 2022?  That would be a long shot, but there is no reason to think he won't be very good.  

Gipson, Watts and Jones had big production in limited reps.   Muhammad has looked best he has ever looked this offseason and is entering his prime.  Blackson was playing his best ever football at end of last season and was dominate in MN game.   Robinson is really raw, but has elite athletic traits.   He could be a future player.  

As a pass rushing D line this one isn't bad at all.  They are all athletic and can get after the QB.  As a run stuffing d line, I have more concerns.   They are collectively lacking a little beef in trunk with the release of Tonga.

I would say all things considered, the 2022 D line as a group is as good or better than the 2021 D line.  Why do I say all things considered?  We didn't actually have the 2021 D line people are lamenting about for much of 2021 season.   If we were talking 17 games of a healthy Mack and Hicks there would be no argument.   The 2021 version would be the better iteration.  That was not the case however and would not have likely been the case had they stayed.

But even assuming Dline is worse in 2022 let's look at rest of defense.

Roquan Smith is in a contract year and has been moved to his natural position of WLB in a 4-3.   Just like Quinn has moved to 4-3 end and that is his natural position.   Smith has never had that in NFL to date.  Playing your natural position is not a bad thing.   He has a chance to look best he has ever looked.

A healthy 2022 Morrow is a huge upgrade over Trevathan/Olgetree at ILB.   Particularly upgraded in coverage.  

We have radically upgraded CB and S through draft.  Basically half our secondary which was worst in NFL last year.  According to analytics greatest thing you can do to improve a defense is upgrade the secondary.   I don't think any argument can be made that we have not upgraded the secondary in 2022.  

I would argue based on above, the 2022 defense is poised to be better than the 2021 defense.  They are younger, faster and better in coverage.   The two best players on the defense, Smith and Quinn are playing in a better scheme fit for their talents.   We have a defense focused HC.

What about X factors?

Nothing makes a team better than improved QB play.   In 2021 Fields got very little offseason reps.  He had no continuity or timing with his receivers.  

In 2022 Fields has received all the reps with the ones.  He has participated in every preseason game with the ones.   He has looked better in every conceivable way than this time last year.

His mechanics are visibly better.  He is the unquestioned leader and starter of the team.   These things were not true last year.   What's more he was thrown into playing a game in which the first team was not ready to play, much less the QB who had no reps.   It was worst possible scenario for confidence and development. 

I don't think anyone could logically argue that 9-6-22 Fields is a worse player than 9-6-2021 Fields.   

Outside of QB nothing is more important in football than coaching.   This is a new staff that emphasizes fundamentals and execution.   They have an incentive/decentive system in place with their HITS program and the players have bought in.

Last years staff were lame ducks.  Hoping to buy a winning season and save their jobs.  Players were not playing hard for them.  The execution was abysmal and that is being kind.  

The 2022 Bears have a young team that doesn't understand according to the script they are supposed to lose.   They are going to win some games they are not supposed to.

Schedule

Bears didn't get any favors with their opening two games.  They may be playing the two best defenses in league to open the year.  What's more is Shanahan has shut down this same offense in multiple years against a more talented GB offensive squad.   He knows how to defend this scheme and is willing to share that knowledge with his D coordinators.   He is the bane of this scheme.   But Shanahan also has to play a QB with less experience than Fields with a lot of pressure and expectations to succeed.   

The Bears are opening day 7 point dogs last I looked.   At home.   That is a large spread for NFL.   Vegas is putting Bears as giant underdogs in the opening contest.  

I think there is no question the Bears have an easier overall schedule this year against last.   But the opening handful of games are confidence builders or crushers and momentum is huge in football.   Intra game and intra season.

If Bears can weather storm early of possibly opening with two losses they can ride that confidence to a number more wins than people expect.   I think they can be much improved over last season as a team.    But early losses can get in your head.   I think if Justin survived last seasons debacles he should be fine this season.   

The hard thing is I still believe the rest of NFCN has more talented rosters at this time.   They have spent more in FA and draft capital to do so, so they should.    I do think the gap is not as large as I thought in offseason and the future for Bears is bright.   2022 division success will come down to coaching and QB play.  

I have a lot of faith in Justin Fields as a QB.  I think he is 2nd most talented QB in division and Rodgers is in his swan song.  I believe this season is Rodgers last. 

Detroit will have to decide whether they want to build a great rosters around Goff next year or break in a rookie QB.   MN is only ever going to go so far with Cousins.   They need an all star team around him.

 Hey, if Bears do completely suck like everyone is (wrongly) predicting a top 5 pick in a year when everyone needs a QB would be a nice commodity to have.

I just see no scenario based on offseason evidence to date that we would be looking to replace Fields in next years draft.   He looks like a good QB.  Only one would be a career ending injury.

Go Bears!

[Sugashane]

I think there is a lot of raw talent and athleticism on this team. That will help us win a few games, and the "dead last" rankings seem absolutely ridiculous to me. My big issues are a lack of proven talent playing primary roles

 

There are a number of guys stepping up into bigger roles who were in situational roles or were already spot starters. Obviously Poles and Co saw enough to think they can contribute. But remember, at one point Hicks was one of these guys and look how great he was for us. There was hype there but no one really knew how dominant he was going to be in the full time role. We shopped in he bargain bin compared to the more proven players so we just have to take that risk with it.  Not having Hicks and Mack will make everyone pitch in more, so there will be people stepping up and there will be people being exposed. Thats exactly what I want so we can hopefully reward guy who play well for Chicago and build a culture here. The only two places I was really hoping to splurge more on was WR and OL (to better support Fields) but this also means Getsy will get to either show he's good or be exposed as well. Fields also will be tested, I don't believe one year of poor weapons will damage his career either, this cast with competent coaching will do less damage than Nagy's zero protection deep drops did IMO. I think his year with this cast should be quite a bit better actually than last year, and that is just assuming Getsy is an average playcaller. 

While my optimism isn't dead, I still think this will be a losing season. Be it 6-11 or 8-9 I think there will just be a LOT to overcome with this roster not having the proven names.  I fully admit I am being conservative too though. 

[chisoxguy7]

I like the Bears this year a lot more than most. It would surprise me if they made the playoffs, but I think they are going to exceed a lot of expecations. I picked them to cover the spread as part of a fun 13-leg parlay I made for week one. Fingers crossed, my $5 bet could turn into $14K!

[Bfan]

Some very eloquent and clear expression of exactly where I'm at. I just want to add some things I've been hearing about Fields since the Browns game.  How he's influenced DBs with his eyes and his feet.  He takes the dump off when that is what the D gives him the later on when running the same play and the DB jumps the dump off he see it, directs a little traffic and gets an easy pitch and catch to Kmet.  He sees a blitz setting up presnap and adjust his protection.  He's getting better at when to leave the pocket but he also keeps eye discipline down field. All the kinds of things QBs can do to make WR look good! 

All the things we have talked about in this thread are the details those doing league wide power rankings won't notice until they put it on tape.  So I guess its back to the slings and arrows for now.

[JAF-N72EX]

So basically your optimism stems from preseason games. Well, one preseason game really.

To each their own though.

 

On 9/5/2022 at 12:21 PM, dll2000 said:

Then they say Mooney is only threat.  I think that is a wrong assumption.  We picked up 3 guys once all thought of as future good WRs at one time in Pettis, Sharpe and St. Brown. 

The same could be said for just about every other draft bust in the NFL too. I.e  Kevin White was once thought of as a future good WR at one point too.  It doesn't make them good options.  Sharpe will most likely never play a snap for the Bears in his life.

On 9/5/2022 at 12:21 PM, dll2000 said:

St. Brown has reportedly been Fields second favorite WR target in practice.

He was the only option. Everyone else has been injured.

On 9/5/2022 at 12:21 PM, dll2000 said:

Pettis looked pretty darn good in last preseason game.

Jesse James looked good in preseason last year too and was getting raving reports from practice about how he and Fields had such great chemistry. But James was trash when it came down to the real game.  Just like I tried to telling you guys.  Along with the other former Steeler you tried to hype up in Artie Burns.

But any time I mentioned how bad they were I was always told that both of them were good depth players. Hell some of you argued about Burns competing for the #1.

Pettis is only going to get snaps because we have nobody better to replace him.

Remember when we had 12 TEs at one training camp under Nagy? This is what the WR group should've looked like in the offseason this year after the post-draft lineup and all of the offseason injuries and off-field issues.

Another blunder on Poles part that none of you kool-aid drinkers wanna talk about.

[JAF-N72EX]

6 hours ago, Bfan said:

Some very eloquent and clear expression of exactly where I'm at. I just want to add some things I've been hearing about Fields since the Browns game.  How he's influenced DBs with his eyes and his feet.  He takes the dump off when that is what the D gives him the later on when running the same play and the DB jumps the dump off he see it, directs a little traffic and gets an easy pitch and catch to Kmet.  He sees a blitz setting up presnap and adjust his protection.  He's getting better at when to leave the pocket but he also keeps eye discipline down field. All the kinds of things QBs can do to make WR look good! 

All the things we have talked about in this thread are the details those doing league wide power rankings won't notice until they put it on tape.  So I guess its back to the slings and arrows for now.

I was told the same things about Mitch after Nagy was hired too. Then after preseason, the fan hype surrounding him was unbearable. I was the only one on here that didn't believe the hype and fought the entire forum. Just like now. 

He had one good game in preseason game. I like Fields a hell of alot of more than Mitch but he still has to prove it and so does the staff.

[Bfan]

9 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

I was told the same things about Mitch after Nagy was hired too. Then after preseason, the fan hype surrounding him was unbearable. I was the only one on here that didn't believe the hype and fought the entire forum. Just like now. 

He had one good game in preseason game. I like Fields a hell of alot of more than Mitch but he still has to prove it and so does the staff.

That is why the thread title is so appropriate.  We need to see all this happen in a regular season game.  We need to see this when the opposition D isn't sitting there two best edge rushers and both starting corners?  We need to see this on a Sunday night in Lambou field. We need to see this  consistently.  Then even if all these things work out, which they never do, we are relying on 4 second year guys and 3 rookies starting important positions along with a bunch of guys who have never done it before. Even if the above miracles happen it will be in fits and starts.  Mistakes will be made.  That is why Sug's top end of 8 and 9 even sound optimistic.  TBH even if we go 4 and 13 but we are 6 plays away from being 10 and 7 I would be ecstatic.

Maybe it would be better to say that a lot of these things are hopes not expectations. 

[Pool]

Bears r bad but sometimes they are like really really good too

[Superman(DH23)]

2 hours ago, Pool said:

Bears r bad but sometimes they are like really really good too

Well done sir

[blkwdw13]

3 hours ago, Pool said:

Bears r bad but sometimes they are like really really good too

You clearly don't see how this forum works, you either have to be optimistic or pessimistic about the Bears.