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Week 1 GDT: Broncos at Seahawks


broncos_fan _from _uk

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Russ’s first game in a broncos uniform comes at a familiar venue. The last game Russ played was in the same venue and he put up four touchdowns and had a 133 passer rating. 

 

Seahawks are 6.5point home dogs and I still put $100 on the broncos. 

 

This is also the Monday Night Football debut of announcer Joe Buck and play-by-play analyst Troy Aikman.

 

Broncos injuries:

Questionable: guard Billy Turner, Tight End Albert Okwuegbunam, linebacker Jonas Griffith, linebacker Randy Gregory

Out: Tight End Greg Dulcich, cornerback Michael Ojemudia

 

Seahawks injuries:

Questionable: cornerback Sidney Jones, linebacker Jordyn Brooks and wide receiver Marquise Goodwin

 

Prediction: I think we will see some inevitable rust as the starters have yet to all play any live snaps together. The defense will take a statistical step back even if they are effectively the same or better just because they will face more drives. That being said the Seahawks appear to be gunning for CJ Stroud. Broncos win 27-17.

 

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I agree there will be some rust. But it won’t show until mid-game, especially offensively, strange as that sounds. 

I think Hackett and Russ get the team off to a hot start a la Kyle’s Niners, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the score 17-0, 17-3 or so at half. With the lead and a hostile environment, in the second half we lean heavily on the run game, bleed the clock, and wear out the Seattle D. With a deficit, Geno will be forced to pass, something Carroll doesn’t want to do, and we will pin our ears back up front and play great coverage on the backend. 

24-13 Broncos.

Russ throws for 2 TDs, Chubb/Gregory/Bonito combine for 3 sacks and PS2 snags his first pick on the way to what will be a Pro Bowl season.

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It's good to have the GDT thread back.....and Wilson @ SEA, after we get Baker vs. CLE, and Flacco vs. BAL (NYJ would be nuts to play MILF-hunter Wilson this early).

Things to watch for when we're on D :

-Our pass rush & corners vs. their OL & DK Metcalf / Tyler Lockett - Lockett & Metcalf are their biggest threats, should be a great indicator of how our secondary is at.  Of course, if our DL makes life miserable for Geno Smith (crazy how Drew Lock couldn't beat him out lol), it may not matter.   I'll be really interested to see how much PT Browning, Bonnino & Cooper get.   We know Chubb & Gregory are the top 2, but especially in Browning's case, the athleticism and flashes, it's worth seeing if the young guys can make any splash plays (at the same time, not sell out on run D etc.).

-Pete Carroll trying to take the air out of the ball / drain the clock - Over the last 1.5 seasons, Carroll has become literally the most conservative game manager (and make no mistake, his OC's are his pawns when it comes to philosophy) - highest run-pass ratio in game-neutral script...and yet, the shortest time of possession and # plays / game.  That's pretty special lol.   But the idea is pretty clear - shorten the game.    In that respect, how our DL controls the trenches with Rashaad Penny in the run game, and the aforementioned pressure, is something we're all going to watch for.


When we're on O:

-Sutton & Jeudy vs. their secondary - a major problem for them last year (frankly, their talent on D is aging and not that deep before, now they're a lot younger, but inexperienced).   

-What's the RB split - I have no problem with MG3 being back at a discount rate, but it's also pretty clear Javonte's the guy you want to feed more.   It may not matter this week, but hopefully we'll see a transition from the 55-45 split being reported.

-Who is the RZ TE weapon - we've all seen Albert O go into the doghouse this preseason.   With Dulcich on IR, I think there's a sneaky chance Saubert gets a TD.   SEA's LB coverage is a major weak spot to exploit.  I've even put a TD prop on Saubert already with the juicy odds lol.

-How does Cush/Russ work out with noise - Cush is probably the OL with the biggest Q marks, but he's spent a ton of extra time with Russ this offseason.   We'll see how this translates.

The 2 other areas worth noting:

-Special Teams - we went with the higher ceiling / more hang-time punter, and we kept 2-3 guys what ST coach Dwayne Stukes absolutely banged the drum for.   We're faster and way more athletic.   Montrell Washington looks like a massive upgrade in the return game (to be fair, it isn't hard to be an upgrade lol).   In short, zero excuses. 

-Game management with Hackett & co. - Hackett's one major flaw as an OC in JAX / BUF was pretty poor game management.    It's a very encouraging sign that he hired a coach just for this - as a HC, it's not likely he'd be better with more on his plate, but with more help, and having learned 3 years in GB, it's something I'm looking forward to see progress.    Instead of being an bottom-5 team in this department, it would be great to see us win here on a weekly basis.


Yes, we'll have rust.  Yes, it's in SEA.   Yes, Carroll will do everything he can to shorten the game.  It shouldn't matter.   This is a game we win 8x+ out of 10 (the -3 TO type game / freak injuries / etc., never 100 percent).   I took DEN -4.5 with confidence when it opened - and it's rightfully gone up to -6.5.   I think this is a 31-17 game, but I'll say 27-17 given it's Week 1.

 

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I think we win this by about a field goal. The Seahawks will be motivated to take down their former king so I think the -6.5 line on the road flatters us, but it’s difficult to see Geno Smith doing much against our defense. I think Wilson sees a bit of a difficult debut and maybe throw a couple of picks, but recovers to throw a TD to Sutton and then set up the game winning drive for Brandon McManus to kick a late winner.

 

Denver 20

Seattle 17 

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I am being 100% a biased homer but I think we're going to absolutely wax Seattle. Might be a close 1H, but they just stink. Geno Smith is trash. We know what Lock is, although he likely won't play. We've historically been very good in Week 1 over time, Russ is going to be ultra motivated, and there's a huge amount of optimism around Denver right now. 

Like I said, I think Seattle keeps it close initially, but I just don't think they're very good and Smith is a bad QB. Defensively we should be able to exploit that, even if we're playing in Seattle.

Denver 30

Seattle 17

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When Seahawks have the ball:

The Seahawks will have to be able to run the football. DJ Jones and Purcell will make that difficult. The Broncos will key in on the run a dare Seattle to throw.  The Hawks have two rookies starting tackles. If they are forced to throw I’m sure the Broncos will exploit the  inexperienced rookies. It looks like tough sledding for the Seahawks offense. 
 

When the Broncos have the ball:

This is where I am not sure of what to expect. A brand new Coach and QB. If it were me I would attack that secondary from the outset.  A quick lead is the best way to silence the 12. This will be a work in progress offense and the Seahawks defense is a good opponent to work out the kinks. I see a breakout game for Jeudy.  He is healthy and has been working hard from what I have read.

 

Broncos 27 Seahawks 13

 

 

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I definitely think rust and the Seattle crowd are a factor here. The longer we let Seattle stay in the game, the more hope we give the crowd and the more pressure we are going to be under.

A quick start would just be amazing for us. Get up a score, force Geno Smith to play from behind and let our pass rush eat.

 

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49 minutes ago, lomaxgrUK said:

It looks like Josey Jewell is going to miss the game with a calf injury. Not ideal, given Griffith clearly isn't going to be 100%

I wonder if Browning has practiced at all at ILB if hes 100% converted to edge rusher. Singleton and Strnad having to play significant roles could be problematic against the run 

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4 hours ago, paul-mac said:

I wonder if Browning has practiced at all at ILB if hes 100% converted to edge rusher. Singleton and Strnad having to play significant roles could be problematic against the run 

No. Don't mess with Browning. Let him commit to one roll and one roll only.

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On 9/7/2022 at 12:19 AM, paul-mac said:

I think we win this by about a field goal. The Seahawks will be motivated to take down their former king so I think the -6.5 line on the road flatters us, but it’s difficult to see Geno Smith doing much against our defense. I think Wilson sees a bit of a difficult debut and maybe throw a couple of picks, but recovers to throw a TD to Sutton and then set up the game winning drive for Brandon McManus to kick a late winner.

 

Denver 20

Seattle 17 

Feels like if were winning just by a FG on the road against a team like SEA then were having to brush off a lot of rust, building some chemistry and just just getting some luck there. We should e thumping the Seahawks IMO

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