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LAMAR JACKSON TO PLAY OUT FINAL YEAR OF CONTRACT


Karnage84

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1 hour ago, Karnage84 said:

The Ravens and Jackson have not been able to work out a deal. Would you be open to the Lions offering Lamar Jackson a monster deal in order to become the Lions QBOTF? 

The Ravens will tag him twice before he hits FA. I hope our QB situation is solidified by then. 

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On 9/11/2022 at 1:16 PM, Sllim Pickens said:

You guys are crazy.  He is an NFL MVP that wins games.  If he was available and wanted to come here I’d be for it.  I wouldn’t trade additional assets plus pay him like we likely would have to but if a free agent I would but the Ravens will definitely tag him. 

Absolutely. He would also be absolute dynamite in this offense and in our running game.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Lions017 said:

Absolutely. He would also be absolute dynamite in this offense and in our running game.

 

 

It would change our offense for sure.  But with our O line, and the pass catchers we have, it would be fun to watch. 

The biggest perk would be that we could then spend two more first round picks on D and have that young defense coming together.  If we end up drafting a QB, there is a good chance we use both of those picks plus some to move up and would then need to spend in FA to fill holes on D and the D is our biggest weakness IMO.  Its why I wish we would have grabbed someone like Willis, Corral, Howell, Ridder, etc in the mid rounds as a backup to see if we could develop someone and save the picks.  

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Reportedly, Lamar has a list of three teams he'd like to play for, and Detroit is one of those three.

 

I like Lamar, more than some, although I still acknowledge some flaws in his game. As much as I like him, I'm not sure I'd like to pay him top $$ while giving up assets to get Baltimore to agree to trade him since they can tag him through 2024. 

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https://www.spotrac.com/spots/super-bowl-qb-cap-percentages-1397/

This is an interesting article and was brought up in a discussion with a couple friends. 

With a current salary cap of $208M,

Top 10 Super Bowl QB Cap Percentages (Median 10%)
2009: Peyton Manning (IND): 18.8%
2016: Matt Ryan (ATL): 15.3%
2013: Peyton Manning (DEN): 14.16%
2021: Tom Brady (TB): 12.61%
2018: Tom Brady (NE): 12.42%
2015: Peyton Manning (DEN): 12.21%
2011: Eli Manning (NYG): 11.71%
2014: Tom Brady (NE): 11.13%
2011: Tom Brady (NE): 10.76%
2007: Eli Manning (NYG): 10.75%

For 2022, this is how it breaks down

    SALARY CAP $208,000,000
  NAME 2022 CAP HIT CAP %
1 Ryan Tannehill $38,600,000 18.56%
2 Patrick Mahomes $35,793,381 17.21%
3 Kirk Cousins $31,416,668 15.10%
4 Jared Goff $31,150,000 14.98%
5 Aaron Rodgers $28,533,569 13.72%
6 Carson Wentz $28,294,119 13.60%
7 Lamar Jackson $23,016,000 11.07%
8 Dak Prescott $19,730,000 9.49%
9 Derek Carr $19,375,000 9.31%
10 Sam Darnold $18,858,000 9.07%
11 Matt Ryan $18,705,882 8.99%
12 Russell Wilson $17,000,000 8.17%
13 Josh Allen $16,372,281 7.87%
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2 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

https://www.spotrac.com/spots/super-bowl-qb-cap-percentages-1397/

This is an interesting article and was brought up in a discussion with a couple friends. 

With a current salary cap of $208M,

Top 10 Super Bowl QB Cap Percentages (Median 10%)
2009: Peyton Manning (IND): 18.8%
2016: Matt Ryan (ATL): 15.3%
2013: Peyton Manning (DEN): 14.16%
2021: Tom Brady (TB): 12.61%
2018: Tom Brady (NE): 12.42%
2015: Peyton Manning (DEN): 12.21%
2011: Eli Manning (NYG): 11.71%
2014: Tom Brady (NE): 11.13%
2011: Tom Brady (NE): 10.76%
2007: Eli Manning (NYG): 10.75%

For 2022, this is how it breaks down

    SALARY CAP $208,000,000
  NAME 2022 CAP HIT CAP %
1 Ryan Tannehill $38,600,000 18.56%
2 Patrick Mahomes $35,793,381 17.21%
3 Kirk Cousins $31,416,668 15.10%
4 Jared Goff $31,150,000 14.98%
5 Aaron Rodgers $28,533,569 13.72%
6 Carson Wentz $28,294,119 13.60%
7 Lamar Jackson $23,016,000 11.07%
8 Dak Prescott $19,730,000 9.49%
9 Derek Carr $19,375,000 9.31%
10 Sam Darnold $18,858,000 9.07%
11 Matt Ryan $18,705,882 8.99%
12 Russell Wilson $17,000,000 8.17%
13 Josh Allen $16,372,281 7.87%

There is some creativity in the contracts for Rodgers, Wilson, Allen, Dak, and Carr.  As well as Watson and Stafford not listed but with contracts with AAV of over $40M.  Some of those contracts are going to balloon on their teams next year.  

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If we use Kyler's contract as a base for someone like Lamar:

2022 - $12.6M APY

2023 - $16M APY

2024 - $51.8M APY

The overall average contract value is $46.1M. If we're projecting a 3% increase in the salary cap ($213M in 2024) Kyler is going to hold 24% of the Cardinals cap. They only really have two years to take advantage of things before they'll be fighting against history. This will be the same case for the Ravens assuming they go this route. 

 

From a Lions perspective, it does support the premise of drafting a higher end QB and building around him as opposed to keeping Goff long term without a major contract restructure. 

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7 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

There is some creativity in the contracts for Rodgers, Wilson, Allen, Dak, and Carr.  As well as Watson and Stafford not listed but with contracts with AAV of over $40M.  Some of those contracts are going to balloon on their teams next year.  

100%. My principal focus was on what impact it would have on the Lions if we were to get into the mix and offer Lamar a big contract. We'd probably be looking a similar breakdown as Kyler's with two manageable years flanked with several huge years. Even with the addition of someone like Lamar, are we close enough in terms of roster construction to give ourselves a 2 year window before having to get more creative? I don't think we are. 

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37 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

100%. My principal focus was on what impact it would have on the Lions if we were to get into the mix and offer Lamar a big contract. We'd probably be looking a similar breakdown as Kyler's with two manageable years flanked with several huge years. Even with the addition of someone like Lamar, are we close enough in terms of roster construction to give ourselves a 2 year window before having to get more creative? I don't think we are. 

If we get a QB like Lamar and then add to our OL and Defense with our top 3 picks, we would definitely be there IMO.  And to be honest, we really could use being good next year as we have a lot of contracts coming up this year we may need to resign (Jamaal Williams, Fox, Seibert, Oruwariye, Evan Brown, Craig Reynolds, Chark??, and Brockers likely will be cut) and after next year we have to sign or replace Swift, Hockenson, Charles Harris, Romeo Okwara, Jonah Jackson, Jerry Jacobs. Then after 2 years we will have to pay or replace Decker, Okudah, ARSB, Alim McNeil, Walker, Vaitai, Goff, and if they ever pan out Onwuzurike and Melifonwu. So yeah, the window is the next two years after this IMO.  If we get a great QB the window stays open longer but with the good players currently on the team, many of them could be gone three years from now. 

 

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Also in looking at that list of players coming due in the near future, I wonder if we can get creative with new deals.  Its been happening in baseball with the young guys where they take a long term discount by getting more money earlier in their careers.  The top WRs were getting 20-30M AAV this past offseason, so I wonder if ARSB would be interested in signing a 4 or 5 year $100M extension with a big signing bonus this offseason and spreading that hit out over the 6/7 year period.  He is projected to get just over $1M the next two years so we essentially could be getting a 6 year $102M contract but he would be getting guaranteed money now instead of waiting two years.  Plus if any injury happened to him in that time, he would be protected and still have his signing bonus/guaranteed money.  It would help us stay competitive longer as he would run through Jameo's first contract but reduce our space next year. Our risk is he regresses or gets hurt but seems like a risk worth taking for the long term outlook. 

We do have 25M of dead cap we get back, 3/4ish M of carryover, and can create 37M more if we cut Goff, Brockers, and Okwara.  The later two provide little value now and would cause some dead cap so the net savings isnt as great. 

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