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Wide Receiver Outlook

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On 7/7/2018 at 11:40 PM, MrOaktown_56 said:

Packers fans, I come in peace.

Is Jordy "done", or was he the victim of going from Rodgers to Hundley, or... both? If so, what did you see from him to suggest this.

In other words, what can we reasonably expect from him this year and beyond?

Some around here would like to make you think he's done but I don't believe he is.  He's a year removed from being the WR who carried our offense down the stretch in December.  Before the injury to AR12 he was leading the team in yards and TDs per game.


I think he'll be ok in Oakland if Carr rebounds.  I'm interested to see what JG does to their offense.  I personally feel like his best spot is in the slot but it sounds like that's not the plan for him in Oakland.  I wouldn't at all be surprised to see 70-80 catches, 900-1000 yards and 6-8 TDs.  IMO he's an upgrade over Crabtree.  

 

 

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On 7/7/2018 at 10:40 PM, MrOaktown_56 said:

Packers fans, I come in peace.

Is Jordy "done", or was he the victim of going from Rodgers to Hundley, or... both? If so, what did you see from him to suggest this.

In other words, what can we reasonably expect from him this year and beyond?

 

1 hour ago, SSG said:

Some around here would like to make you think he's done but I don't believe he is.  He's a year removed from being the WR who carried our offense down the stretch in December.  Before the injury to AR12 he was leading the team in yards and TDs per game.


I think he'll be ok in Oakland if Carr rebounds.  I'm interested to see what JG does to their offense.  I personally feel like his best spot is in the slot but it sounds like that's not the plan for him in Oakland.  I wouldn't at all be surprised to see 70-80 catches, 900-1000 yards and 6-8 TDs.  IMO he's an upgrade over Crabtree.  

Lots of analysts have broken down his tape and said he was performing below Jordy Nelson of old standards even with Rodgers last year. Personally, I think he has one good year left in him. The biggest question is can Carr get on the same page with only one offseason with Jordy? My personal opinion is he will be a solid contributor, and maybe end up with more yards than Amari Cooper, but only because Cooper will take the #1 coverage and give Jordy a better matchup. 

I'd expect 70 catches for 800-900 yards and 8 TDs. So pretty much in line with SSG, but I'd lean shallower on yards. Probably a heavy drop-off in production in 2019. 

 

 

It is worth noting that the Packers offered Jordy a re-structure on his deal, and he turned it down, before cutting him. Reports were that it was very low, but still - we wouldn't offer him a deal if we truly believed he was done. Packers brass believes he has another contributing year in him at least. Wish him all the best in Oakland, but I'm not counting on him to be THE Jordy Nelson that can kill a defense. Rather a WR that is savvy and can run crisp route and catch back-shoulder throws, but lacks the ability to get separation. 

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With Amari Cooper, and if Martavis Bryant isn't suspended, then Jordy becomes a very fine #3 option.  That wide receiver group will be very good.  IF Bryant gets to play.

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IMO Jordy looked like he was afraid to be on the field. Whether ii was seeing Davante get lit up multiple times or dealing with his own injuries and big hits. Jordy just didn't seem like someone who wanted to be apart of the violence that comes with football. You could see it in his actions when he was asked to go over the middle. I love Jordy and am very disappointed his end came so abruptly, but he should have retired this year.

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My short Jordy take;

Pros; There are still things he can offer. He still has some deep long tracking speed (Hundley couldn’t get him the ball). Also he can still be a nice redzone threat. Good character 

 

Cons; Jordy has lost some explosiveness. He didn’t have much for short area burst last year and was insta tacked quick perimeter handoffs (rpos that he use to get 10 yards). He also didn’t do well in contested catches (pff graded him horribly low in this area).

 

I think with Carr in a 2/3 role he should be good for like 50 catches and 700 yards. 

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48 minutes ago, pacman5252 said:

I think with Carr in a 2/3 role he should be good for like 50 catches and 700 yards. 

14.0 yards per catch is pretty lofty.  Has not been that high since 2014.  

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7 hours ago, squire12 said:

14.0 yards per catch is pretty lofty.  Has not been that high since 2014.  

In 2016 Jordy averaged 13 YPC

Last year pre Rodgers injury games he averaged 12ypc (6 tds)

 

Are you really going to be the technical police and nitpick an argument over a 1 yard average which equates to about 1 big play? In addition the word "like" implies flexibility. ..Alright, he's going to get 650 yards on 50 catches

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https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2018/07/11/davante-adams-was-nfls-top-wr-on-third-and-fourth-down-in-2017/

"No receiver in the NFL produced a higher passer rating when targeted on third and fourth down last season than Davante Adams of the Green Bay Packers.

According to Pro Football Focus, Packers quarterbacks produced a passer rating of 136.8 when targeting Adams on the two pivotal downs in 2017, the highest among receivers with at least 20 targets."

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15 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2018/07/11/davante-adams-was-nfls-top-wr-on-third-and-fourth-down-in-2017/

"No receiver in the NFL produced a higher passer rating when targeted on third and fourth down last season than Davante Adams of the Green Bay Packers.

According to Pro Football Focus, Packers quarterbacks produced a passer rating of 136.8 when targeting Adams on the two pivotal downs in 2017, the highest among receivers with at least 20 targets."

so what you're saying is that Hundley didn't throw to Adams on 3rd or 4th down?

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Just one man's opinion on the ESPN ranking, but do we agree with 23 out of 32? Seemed a tad too low for me, but I dont think this group belongs in the top 16 right now. You could make the argument this is the worst WR group overall that Rodgers has ever played with. Maybe also the best TE group? I like our RB group assuming we feature Jones, otherwise I'd say it's maybe average at best. 

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18 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

Just one man's opinion on the ESPN ranking, but do we agree with 23 out of 32? Seemed a tad too low for me, but I dont think this group belongs in the top 16 right now. You could make the argument this is the worst WR group overall that Rodgers has ever played with. Maybe also the best TE group? I like our RB group assuming we feature Jones, otherwise I'd say it's maybe average at best. 

I'd seen that as well.  I think Bill Barnwell is a fantastic sports mind but I think that ranking is a little low.  It's the lowest ranking of NFCN teams.  He obviously doesn't share a ton of optimism about Graham, our WR depth or our RBs.  

 

For me it's going to come down to Adams improvement and Jimmy Graham.  We're going to need to see Adams develop into a top 10 caliber WR and hope that Jimmy Graham isn't the broken down player he looked to be last year.  If both players play to the elite expectation that many here have, the offense will be every bit as good as its been the last couple years (With AR12 and a healthy Nelson).  If Adams can't turn into a high volume target and or if Jimmy Graham struggles we could see the same sort of sputtering offense we seen in 2015 without Nelson.   I've got little confidence in Cobb being anything more than JAG.  I also don't have any faith in either Allison, the experienced depth behind him or any of the late round rookies.

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I agree with his ranking as it sits right now- which is not to say that the group won't out perform the ranking.

There are just too many question marks- Can Devante Adams stay healthy as the number one now that other teams will be targeting him as a way to slow Rodgers?  Can Cobb stay healthy and outperform his last three years?   Will Jimmy Graham's production rebound in our new system?  Will Ty Montgomery be the guy from 2016 or 2017?  Will Aaron Jones have a sophomore slump?  Will Rodgers be able to make use of the rookies?

They may be a real potent offense this year but there are too many questions until we see them play to rate them any higher.

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