Week 2 Thread: Washington Commanders (1-0) at Detroit Lions (0-1) - 1 PM on FOX

[Vladimir L]

4 hours ago, naptownskinsfan said:

Gotta remember, those are the “mouth breather” fans.  The post with the most replies there is the Cult of Colt thread.  What happens on ES is not indicative of the fan base as a whole.  There are some good guys there, especially if Kdawg is still around, but the majority is rubbish.  

Oh God no please not ES 

[turtle28]

10 hours ago, DCNative said:

So stand on that instead of this optimistic BS!!!! We know who Rivera is, being Optimistic doesn't change that! 

Please stop telling other posters how they should feel like this. Everyone is upset & reacts to that in their own way, respect everyone in this forum. No one is optimistic about this team right now but we have no control over what will happen, just opinions. 
 

Please focus on the game, on the players & on the team in your posts & don’t go after other posters in your thoughts. It’s not that hard. Go after the football stuff, not how they’re feeling. Calling a poster BS bc you feel they’re being optimistic when you’re not as optimistic - when @taylor made isn’t even being optimistic - is not cool.

Realistically, Taylor Made is right. Us wanting Rivera or JDR fired doesn’t mean they’ll get fired. Rivera has been clear he’s not firing JACK. I don’t think that Snyder would fire Rivera unless this team fails to be at least 7-10 again. 
 

So realistically, we’ll have to wait and see how the rest of the season plays out & how this D comes together/how the young back 7 players develop - if it even does.

Edited September 19, 2022 by turtle28

[turtle28]

I have say, I am happy with how Carson and the passing offense clicked/bounced back in the second half. He threw for about 300 yards in the second half and 3 TDs w/ no INTs. So, I no issues w/ Carson & the passing game. Run game w/ Gibson left a lot to be desired today & the D looked like it did last year to start the season which we all were affraid of bc they didn’t upgrade the D. In fact they lost Settle, cut Collins & Ioannidis for no reason so that’s a downgrade in talent in our front 7 on D.

What’s most disappointing to me is the physical play that Dan Campbell has instilled in his Lions is what I thought we’d get at the least when we hired Rivera & this team is as soft as when Gruden was coaching it.

[lavar703]

I will say, this is the best QB play we’ve had since Kirk was here. I hated the trade. I still don’t think it’s going to work but Carson has played well enough to win both games. 

[MikeT14]

I managed to go back and watch some of the game - I was only able to catch some of the beginning and end yesterday.

1) Wow, the o-line was bad. No holes, no time. Just bad. Wentz probably caused 1 or 2, but he had NO time on some of his throws. 

2) The secondary is unbelievably awful too. I think Forrest also said "It's like they knew our defensive play calls." I wonder who is to blame for that? 

3) Dotson is a gem. Early returns have been fantastic. 

4) Wentz can lead a comeback if necessary. Our defense can't get a stop. 

5) Slye time is over.

6) Speaking of, I will reiterate the Falcons did the same thing we did in going for 2 down 14. They had a chance to win, but blew it. 

[RSkinGM]

11 hours ago, aceinthehouse said:

3 Amigo's.

can't use this -plagarism. Denver's old gang . just saying .

[RSkinGM]

Somebody mentioned Milne's lack of explosion. I still can't believe we didn't keep D Carter. We FINALLY found a guy and didn't keep him . 

Obv. no excuse with not resigning Tim Settle too- valuable guy, I was o K with cutting Ionnidas- good but overpaid. 

[e16bball]

14 hours ago, MikeT14 said:

I think the falcons literally just had the same scenario down 14, converted the 2, and are driving to win the game. The pretty much exact same  

 

Wild @e16bball

No, I find that very hard to believe. Only drooling morons like Rivera and I would consider such a decision. And it worked for them? I think we can rule that possibility out, as it didn’t immediately work for us in that one isolated situation.

—————————————————-

Not to belabor a point that we’re probably past, but just to put a couple numbers on it: 

Joey Slye is currently 85/97 on XPs in his career, which comes out to 87.6%. Based on that figure, the likelihood of him making two consecutive XPs is about 77% (rounding up).

SThe average rate of converting a 2-point conversion is 48%. We can quibble about whether our chances were higher or lower than that under the circumstances, but I think that’s the baseline to reason from. That means the odds of failing twice in a row (what would be required for you to lose, if you do in fact score again) are about 27%.

If you convert the first one, you’d have to kick an XP to win after the second score, so we’d again apply Slye’s 87.6% success rate for that scenario.

All told, that leaves us here, in terms of regulation outcomes: 

Go for XPs

Win in Regulation: 0%

Go to Overtime: 77%

Lose in Regulation: 23%

Go for Two

Win in Regulation: 42%

Go to Overtime: 31%

Lose in Regulation: 27%

 

Even if we assume overtime is a straight up coin-flip and we would win 50% of the time, that leaves us winning 38.5% of the time by going for the two XPs, compared to winning 57.5% of the time by going for two in regulation. 

As I said, you’re welcome to tell me you disagree with the percentages, either of Slye making XPs or us converting the 2-point. I will concede that even I think 48% seems higher than I’d peg our chances of success there. But even if you adjust Slye up to 90% and our 2-point chances down to 40%, it’s still a clear edge to going for the two-point (50% to 41.5%). 

I think the key here is that people are overestimating the value of “getting to overtime.” Even if you do get there, you’re generally only winning half those games, so a strategy that gives you a realistic chance to win outright without having to fool with OT at all provides a huge advantage. 

[MikeT14]

2 minutes ago, e16bball said:

I think the key here is that people are overestimating the value of “getting to overtime.” Even if you do get there, you’re generally only winning half those games, so a strategy that gives you a realistic chance to win outright without having to fool with OT at all provides a huge advantage. 

To me, the biggest gain of that is your trust in your defense. If you do, I can see it making sense.

Not one person here trusts our defense. 

[e16bball]

Moving past all that, what’s up with OL? 

I didn’t get a chance to watch most of the game, and when I did, it was on a phone screen, so it was very tough to tell what the deal was. 

Was Trai Turner that bad? Aside from him, it was pretty much the normal projected OL. Was he just a gaping weak link, or did the rest of the boys get rocked also? I’m honestly not even sure which one I’m hoping for, especially with Roullier now likely out long-term. 

[ARTMONK HOF]

I have no clue why RR seems to always have excuses for J. Slye. Besides playing for Carolina what’s the affection for someone this inconsistent. 

 

[lavar703]

56 minutes ago, e16bball said:

No, I find that very hard to believe. Only drooling morons like Rivera and I would consider such a decision. And it worked for them? I think we can rule that possibility out, as it didn’t immediately work for us in that one isolated situation.

—————————————————-

Not to belabor a point that we’re probably past, but just to put a couple numbers on it: 

Joey Slye is currently 85/97 on XPs in his career, which comes out to 87.6%. Based on that figure, the likelihood of him making two consecutive XPs is about 77% (rounding up).

SThe average rate of converting a 2-point conversion is 48%. We can quibble about whether our chances were higher or lower than that under the circumstances, but I think that’s the baseline to reason from. That means the odds of failing twice in a row (what would be required for you to lose, if you do in fact score again) are about 27%.

If you convert the first one, you’d have to kick an XP to win after the second score, so we’d again apply Slye’s 87.6% success rate for that scenario.

All told, that leaves us here, in terms of regulation outcomes: 

Go for XPs

Win in Regulation: 0%

Go to Overtime: 77%

Lose in Regulation: 23%

Go for Two

Win in Regulation: 42%

Go to Overtime: 31%

Lose in Regulation: 27%

 

Even if we assume overtime is a straight up coin-flip and we would win 50% of the time, that leaves us winning 38.5% of the time by going for the two XPs, compared to winning 57.5% of the time by going for two in regulation. 

As I said, you’re welcome to tell me you disagree with the percentages, either of Slye making XPs or us converting the 2-point. I will concede that even I think 48% seems higher than I’d peg our chances of success there. But even if you adjust Slye up to 90% and our 2-point chances down to 40%, it’s still a clear edge to going for the two-point (50% to 41.5%). 

I think the key here is that people are overestimating the value of “getting to overtime.” Even if you do get there, you’re generally only winning half those games, so a strategy that gives you a realistic chance to win outright without having to fool with OT at all provides a huge advantage. 

The giant difference here is you have a shot in OT. You have more than one play to win. A two-point conversion is one shot and that's it. Sure the outcome may ultimately be the same but at least you have more of a shot. Its basically like saying I'll give you one shot to win $50K or I'll give you 5 shots to win $10K. Yes the reward isn't as great with the 5 shots but the odds of you winning are higher. Who knows, maybe this is just me being stubborn but with how poorly they played I think we got cute the moment we got back into the game. 

[lavar703]

58 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Moving past all that, what’s up with OL? 

I didn’t get a chance to watch most of the game, and when I did, it was on a phone screen, so it was very tough to tell what the deal was. 

Was Trai Turner that bad? Aside from him, it was pretty much the normal projected OL. Was he just a gaping weak link, or did the rest of the boys get rocked also? I’m honestly not even sure which one I’m hoping for, especially with Roullier now likely out long-term. 

Cosmi had a really rough game. 

[MikeT14]

4 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

Cosmi had a really rough game. 

So did Leno. It was all of them @e16bball

[MikeT14]

5 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

The giant difference here is you have a shot in OT. You have more than one play to win. A two-point conversion is one shot and that's it. Sure the outcome may ultimately be the same but at least you have more of a shot. Its basically like saying I'll give you one shot to win $50K or I'll give you 5 shots to win $10K. Yes the reward isn't as great with the 5 shots but the odds of you winning are higher. Who knows, maybe this is just me being stubborn but with how poorly they played I think we got cute the moment we got back into the game. 

If you go to OT with this defense, and the other team gets the ball first, do you think we have 5 shots? Our offense might not ever touch the ball.