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"IT'S ONLY WEEK 2" Mock


Karnage84

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It's only Friday of week 2. Our game against the Eagles feels like it was weeks ago while the Commanders game feels like it's gonna be next month. With that said, here's a quick mock to fill in some of the time and to get draft chatter started early. As a Lions fan, we're always in draft season. 

Record - If we're picking at #6, the Lions are sitting somewhere around the 5-12 mark (Panthers record from last year). We've won more games but we're still a good distance away from really competing for the division and playoffs by end of 2022. 

Draft Board: Via FanSpeak

  • Round 1 - Pick 6: Jalen Carter, DL, Georgia

If the Lions do finish in the top 10, a lot of not good things have happened. a) Jared Goff has proven he isn't going to be the guy (or he suffered an injury... either way, we still need to be looking at an eventual replacement). b) Our defense was not able to keep up and is still lacking pieces. There isn't a top QB option available here. Carter slips to the sixth spot and is far too good of a value/fit to pass on him. We need a monster up the middle and he offers great size for a 3T at 6'3 300 lbs. He can play inside or on the edge. A defensive line that features Carter alongside Hutchinson, McNeill, Paschal is going to give opposing offenses a lot more trouble. Carter should help to unlock Hutch's potential as a stud pass-rusher.

  • Round 1 - Pick 26 (via Rams): KJ Jefferson, QB, Arkansas

Jefferson is a 6'3, 240 lb dual threat playing in the SEC. He's still very raw with only one year as the starter for the Razorbacks. He is a 2x team captain (2021 and 2022). He threw for nearly 2700 yards with 21 TD's to 4 INT's with a 67.6% completion rate. He also tacked on 664 rushing yards and 6 rushing TD's last year. Jefferson offers up a lot of the skills that the new look NFL requires on offense and he'd bring a dimension to the roster that we haven't had. Given his lack of playing time, he's probably still quite raw and could use some additional development time which causes him to slip later into round 1. We could choose to redshirt him for 2023 and have him play behind a veteran like Goff or we could throw him into the fire and have him learn on the job. 

  • Round 2 - Pick 38 - Bijian Robinson, RB, Texas

Considered to be the best RB prospect to come out since Saquon Barkley, he's probably NOT going to be here. We have seen a shift in how teams do perceive and value running back, so it's not completely out to lunch that he could be here. The Lions have established the identity of who they want to be on offense - rushing the ball and controlling the clock. They're clearly big fans of Swift but his injury questions always creates challenges. A great ability to have is 'availability' and this isn't always the case for Swift. Jamaal is aging and isn't going to be the long-term answer for this team. Combining the talents of Robinson with Swift escalates our dynamic duo to a new level that is going to challenge defenses and open up opportunities for big plays. This will also give us flexibility when it comes time to consider resigning Swift who may be looking for more money than the Lions would like to pay for a guy that has missed 7 games in the past two seasons. Swift is a UDFA in 2024. 

  • Round 3 - Pick 70 - Layden Robinson, OG, Texas A&M

Robinson is a solid run blocker on the interior. At 6'4, 330 Lb's, he is a big body with natural length and power. He could wind up as the best interior prospect in the draft. One of the Lions' team strength's is our offensive line. Vaitai is older and on a higher end contract. We're seeing the depth behind him in real time struggle, with Stenberg currently slotted in as the starter. Robinson should be a day one starter and help to solidify our OL. This in turn will help better protect our QB (whether it's Goff or Jefferson) and our rushing attack. 

  • Round 4 - Pick 108 - DeMarvion Overshown, LB, Texas

A converted safety, Overshown has good size (6'3, 235 lbs) and athleticism for the position. He's strong in coverage, however he has work to do in terms of tackling. The Lions have shown us so far that they don't value the LB position that highly. Therefore we're likely not going to see the position addressed much earlier than the middle rounds. Rodriguez was a steal but the Lions still need someone else in the middle. Anzalone isn't the guy and the Lions have needed help in coverage for some time. 

  • Round 5 - Pick 142 - Chamarri Conner, DB, Virginia Tech

Conner played (and arguably misused) at nickel in 2019/2020 for the Hokies. Best projects as a Strong Safety. The Lions need to develop a long-term answer opposite of Tracy Walker.  He currently has a 74.9 coverage grade and a 75.8 overall PFF grade so far. He offers the right size for the position at 6'1 and 206 lbs. 

  • Round 6 - Pick 182 - Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah

A former basketball player with only 6 years of football experience, Kincaid is a pass-catching threat. He offers great size (6'4, 240 lbs) and athleticism. He's going to need time to develop (which tends to be the case for the position anyway). Hockenson is set for a new contract with only one other year (2023) left on his contract. He might be looking for a bigger contract than the Lions feel he's worth, leaving a large gap in the position group. Whether TJ stays or goes, the Lions have been desperately searching for a solid TE2 for a while now with not a ton of luck. 

  • Round 7 - Pick 199 - Grayson McCall, QB, Coastal Carolina

Some scouting reports have likened McCall to a "poor man's Justin Herbert". He's 6'3, 210 lbs, which is acceptable for the position. Some projections have him as a 2nd or 3rd round prospect, however he's here and available. McCall has the highest passing rating since 1956 in all of college football at 207.65 vs guys like Mac Jones (203.1) and Joe Burrow (202.0). The Lions have either ignored the backup QB position or done a poor job at adding talent to the room and developing into guys that can run the offense when the starter goes out for any amount of time. We're double dipping at QB in a similar method that our week 2 opponent (Washington) did with their former 1st round pick (RG3) and division rival/former Sparty in Kirk Cousins. The hope is that either Jefferson and/or McCall (preferably both) develop into competent players. The Lions would be well to have a veteran presence in the QB room as well, so both of these guys could sit behind someone like Goff for 2023 as they get up to speed in the pro game. 

 

Breakdown

  • Offense - 5 Picks
  • Defense - 3 Picks

While I wasn't looking to be offensive heavy, teams will tend to try and build around their new Quarterbacks and adding other pieces on offense. We've addressed some of the biggest weaknesses on the team and added talent that should contribute in 2023 and beyond. This would begin an entirely new era for the Lions and the clock would start on us competing for the division title and the playoffs by 2024 and beyond. 

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Usually we wait until week 3 before we give up and start doing mock drafts jk 😉

I really want a stud on the inside of the D, so if we couldn’t package to move up for a qb in this situation, I’d be good with taking the best idl on the board. I’m not sure about the double dipping at qb, but as a late round pick, I wouldn’t be that upset about it. I’m a big fan of IOL in the second and third. I feel that’s the sweet spot for the position. If the rest of my years we would keep talent at dl, and ol…we probably win more than we lose. I believe it should always be the focus.

I really don’t think I like rb in the second. If we are picking at 6, I think we have bigger issues. I think the value is going to be on the lines,lb(which I don’t think we pick before the 4th), wr , TE and cb. We could also be replacing chark as well so some more wr talent could be a worthwhile investment in the 2nd.

im not that familiar with the individual players this year yet, but I think there is going to be a good qb available at 6.

overall I wouldn’t be upset with a draft like this, but I’d wonder if it was the best use of resources. 

Edited by LionArkie
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I don’t mind the general philosophy of your draft. They need to come out of next years free agency and draft with a guard. Talent on the line is great but the depth is poor and as you suggested Vaitai is older, has now suffered an injury the depth is hurt. 

The Lions have to find a penetrating type player for IDL. As you’ve pointed out interior pressure makes the DE more effective.

If Goff needs replacing then Levis or Richardson at this point.

I agree with your statement on running back. That availability issue always pops up. The Lions just need to run the ball. 

I really hope they grab a good safety. 

Linebacker. Rodrigo looks good but that’s only one game. 

Given the amount of holes/poor depth it will be challenging.

 

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I don't hate it. 

Overshown is probably my favorite pick of your mock. And I've also been doing some draft simulations and grabbing McCall late as a second QB. 

 

Overall, I like the positions you addressed. I like addressing DL and G. I like grabbing another RB. Swift will be looking for a new contract and Williams contract will be up. 

 

Good job. 

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I like the first round. Although I’m guessing if we draft a QB it will be with our first pick or moving up for one of the top 2 if possible.  I don’t like the two QB drafts much but definitely would like the backup WB upgraded.  If we keep Goff one more year, that would be handled this year so not sure that pick is needed.  I’d be more willing to grab a second QB if we get an elite pro ready QB at the top and just start him and cut Goff.  
 

Bijan is likely a mid/late first round pick.  We won’t see RBs in the top 10, but will see them in the later 1st.  if he falls, I am all for it but other than that, I’m good not grabbing a RB.  Will see what Swift does the rest of the year but I do like the duo of Williams and Swift.  Williams is only 27 and with limited wear and tear, he has a few years left as a good backup.  
 

Definitely  want to add more on the O line interior but feel that’s a better spot to attack in free agency and would prefer attacking defense in the draft, especially early.  I like Overshown but would probably go LB and CB earlier as well as another D lineman to keep adding depth.  
 

I think TE earlier May be worthwhile too. Hock has one year left and don’t want to pay him so finding a replacement before he is gone would be helpful. 
 

I wouldn’t be mad at all with this draft at all but don’t think it’s the most effective way to keep building. 
 

 

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On 9/17/2022 at 7:18 AM, LionArkie said:

Usually we wait until week 3 before we give up and start doing mock drafts jk 😉

I really want a stud on the inside of the D, so if we couldn’t package to move up for a qb in this situation, I’d be good with taking the best idl on the board. I’m not sure about the double dipping at qb, but as a late round pick, I wouldn’t be that upset about it. I’m a big fan of IOL in the second and third. I feel that’s the sweet spot for the position. If the rest of my years we would keep talent at dl, and ol…we probably win more than we lose. I believe it should always be the focus.

I really don’t think I like rb in the second. If we are picking at 6, I think we have bigger issues. I think the value is going to be on the lines,lb(which I don’t think we pick before the 4th), wr , TE and cb. We could also be replacing chark as well so some more wr talent could be a worthwhile investment in the 2nd.

im not that familiar with the individual players this year yet, but I think there is going to be a good qb available at 6.

overall I wouldn’t be upset with a draft like this, but I’d wonder if it was the best use of resources. 

I've far from given up but this might be one of my earliest (probably not) lol 

IDL: If we're picking at 6, I'm expecting a few other QB needy teams that just won't be willing to bypass the chance to get their guy. Otherwise, we're going to have to give up A LOT in order to land at 1 or 2. I'm not sure that's the right plan of attack. 

QB: I think it ultimately worked out well for Washington as a strategy. We need a QBOTF and throwing lottery tickets at the position to see what sticks doesn't hurt IMO. Especially with one of those being a later round pick (and we have an extra 1st to play with). A number of the guys being talked about as draft prospects give me pause based on age, production (Levis is one example). 

IOL: Agreed, it's getting good players on cheaper contracts and still allowing you to pick premier guys in the earlier rounds. 

RB: So here's what I'm thinking. There's a chart that shows the percentage of RB's with 1,000 yard seasons, separated by draft round. 25% of 1st rounders had 5 seasons; 25% of 2nd rounders had 3 seasons; 26.9% of 3rd rounders had 2 seasons (23.1% had 3 seasons). The scale continues to slide down from there. We're a team that wants to run the ball a ton. Swift has had his injury issues and could thrive as a 1B combined with Robinson as the lead back. We've seen very talented RB's drop into round 2 and a common trend where an RB isn't even taken in round 1. 

 

Appreciate the feedback and sharing of ideas. The principal reason for looking at a mock now is to a)get an idea of how the future could look (I'm expecting us to finish better than 6th but just went with the current power rankings) and b) discuss different draft prospects and get ideas from people who may be more invested in CFB

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On 9/18/2022 at 2:36 AM, Louis Friend said:

I don't hate it. 

Overshown is probably my favorite pick of your mock. And I've also been doing some draft simulations and grabbing McCall late as a second QB. 

 

Overall, I like the positions you addressed. I like addressing DL and G. I like grabbing another RB. Swift will be looking for a new contract and Williams contract will be up. 

 

Good job. 

Thanks dude. Appreciate the feedback.

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On 9/17/2022 at 8:42 PM, diehardlionfan said:

I don’t mind the general philosophy of your draft. They need to come out of next years free agency and draft with a guard. Talent on the line is great but the depth is poor and as you suggested Vaitai is older, has now suffered an injury the depth is hurt. 

The Lions have to find a penetrating type player for IDL. As you’ve pointed out interior pressure makes the DE more effective.

If Goff needs replacing then Levis or Richardson at this point.

I agree with your statement on running back. That availability issue always pops up. The Lions just need to run the ball. 

I really hope they grab a good safety. 

Linebacker. Rodrigo looks good but that’s only one game. 

Given the amount of holes/poor depth it will be challenging.

 

Thanks, I appreciate the feedback and thoughts on team needs. 

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18 hours ago, Superduperman said:

I totally agree they need a RB in this draft. Bijan would work great, also like Devon Achane

Don't get me wrong, I really like Swift. I just don't know if he can be the guy we all would hope for him to be. As much as I like Jamaal and Reynolds, they aren't going to be the future of the position for us. Williams is going to be 28 next year, nearing the RB cliff of 30. Reynolds is someone the team likes but he just doesn't have the skills to be a premier back. It would be prudent for us to add a proper RB into the group to bolster the position and ensure we don't wind up in a difficult position. 

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18 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I like the first round. Although I’m guessing if we draft a QB it will be with our first pick or moving up for one of the top 2 if possible.  I don’t like the two QB drafts much but definitely would like the backup WB upgraded.  If we keep Goff one more year, that would be handled this year so not sure that pick is needed.  I’d be more willing to grab a second QB if we get an elite pro ready QB at the top and just start him and cut Goff.  
 

Bijan is likely a mid/late first round pick.  We won’t see RBs in the top 10, but will see them in the later 1st.  if he falls, I am all for it but other than that, I’m good not grabbing a RB.  Will see what Swift does the rest of the year but I do like the duo of Williams and Swift.  Williams is only 27 and with limited wear and tear, he has a few years left as a good backup.  
 

Definitely  want to add more on the O line interior but feel that’s a better spot to attack in free agency and would prefer attacking defense in the draft, especially early.  I like Overshown but would probably go LB and CB earlier as well as another D lineman to keep adding depth.  
 

I think TE earlier May be worthwhile too. Hock has one year left and don’t want to pay him so finding a replacement before he is gone would be helpful. 
 

I wouldn’t be mad at all with this draft at all but don’t think it’s the most effective way to keep building. 
 

 

I'm going on the premise that there's only two QB's who are considered to be top 10 worthy (Stroud and Young) or if there's a third option, the team's picking need those players. Therefore, a trade up is not an option. 

I'm not opposed to adding two QBs as long as the team has a plan for them. If we're drafting a QB in the 1st round this year, then Goff isn't going to be the guy beyond one extra year. Therefore, it could be beneficial to have an extra year in the system for our future starter and the future back up. 

I do agree - there's a pretty good chance he's going to be taken somewhere in the 20's or top few picks of round 2. He likely wouldn't be there for us but he was available in this simulator and I had to take him. 

I drafted a LB in Overshown in a spot that I feel the regime would be more inclined to draft than what we would like to see. They don't seem to value the position that much and seem to focus on the mid-to-late rounds. Which is why I only really started looking in round 4. 

Hock: I'm feeling like they're going to bring him back at market value. If he wants to break the bank on a huge contract, they'd probably let him walk. I just have a feeling he is going to be coming back on a 3 year contract extension. 

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7 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

I'm going on the premise that there's only two QB's who are considered to be top 10 worthy (Stroud and Young) or if there's a third option, the team's picking need those players. Therefore, a trade up is not an option. 

I'm not opposed to adding two QBs as long as the team has a plan for them. If we're drafting a QB in the 1st round this year, then Goff isn't going to be the guy beyond one extra year. Therefore, it could be beneficial to have an extra year in the system for our future starter and the future back up. 

I do agree - there's a pretty good chance he's going to be taken somewhere in the 20's or top few picks of round 2. He likely wouldn't be there for us but he was available in this simulator and I had to take him. 

I drafted a LB in Overshown in a spot that I feel the regime would be more inclined to draft than what we would like to see. They don't seem to value the position that much and seem to focus on the mid-to-late rounds. Which is why I only really started looking in round 4. 

Hock: I'm feeling like they're going to bring him back at market value. If he wants to break the bank on a huge contract, they'd probably let him walk. I just have a feeling he is going to be coming back on a 3 year contract extension. 

I get its early but I will bet 4 QBs go in the top 15 this year.  They always get pushed up in real life and fall in the simulators.  Someone will show a trait that gets them extra hype. 

Understandable on all other fronts.  Hock probably will be back but market value for a TE is 15M a year.  Dawson Knox, Njoku, Andrews (before blowing up last year), and Goedert got 13 to 14.25 a year. If TE contracts do anything like what WR contracts did last year, it could be pushing $20M.  I just don't think it is worth it to pay that much but maybe he is better blocking than I am noticing but his pass catching production is pretty meh.  I would just like another TE for depth at least and potential to not force us to resign him.  DC is a TE guy so it seems he would utilize them more or develop them better but he has been the most disappointing player so far this year IMO. 

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I think the verdict is still out on Jared Goff and he is still fairly young.  He may not be Matthew Stafford but he is a better option than Mitch Tribusky.  I like the idea of developing someone for a year in the same manner Patrick Mahomes sat behind Alex Smith but I don't know if we have done enough on the defensive side of the ball to go "all-in" on a young QB.  .  I agree 100% that we need a DT next to Aidan Huthcinson that will force teams to "pick their poison".  Levi Onwzurike's injury history should make this a top priority.  I do not agree with waiting until the 4th round to draft a LB.  Anzalone isn't a long-term answer.  Derrick Barnes hasn't taken a step forward in year 2 so he doesn't look like a long-term answer.  Malcom Rodriguez looks like a 6th-round steal but we need to add more talent to the LB Room.  

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2 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I get its early but I will bet 4 QBs go in the top 15 this year.  They always get pushed up in real life and fall in the simulators.  Someone will show a trait that gets them extra hype. 

Understandable on all other fronts.  Hock probably will be back but market value for a TE is 15M a year.  Dawson Knox, Njoku, Andrews (before blowing up last year), and Goedert got 13 to 14.25 a year. If TE contracts do anything like what WR contracts did last year, it could be pushing $20M.  I just don't think it is worth it to pay that much but maybe he is better blocking than I am noticing but his pass catching production is pretty meh.  I would just like another TE for depth at least and potential to not force us to resign him.  DC is a TE guy so it seems he would utilize them more or develop them better but he has been the most disappointing player so far this year IMO. 

Njoku and Knox are really good guys to compare against. Hock's numbers aren't as good as Knox but he's better than Njoku. So we're likely going to be seeing him in that $15M range. I would definitely like to see us add a TE2 for all of the reasons that you have mentioned. 

Walter Football has their QB rankings in this order (with projected rounds) and PFF score YTD. 

1) Bryce Young, Alabama (Rd 1) 79.0

2) CJ Stroud, Ohio State (Rd 1) 91.4

3) Will Levis, Kentucky (Rd 1-2) 64.0

4) Anthony Richardson, Florida (Rd 1-2) 53.2

5) KJ Jefferson, Arkansas (Rd 1-3) 84.4

6) Tyler Van Dyke, Miami (Rd 1-3) 63.8

7) Jaren Hall, BYU (Rd 1-3) 74.8

8 ) Devin Leary, NC State (Rd 3-5) 78.5

9) Grayson McCall, Coastal Carolina ( Rd 3-5)

10) Hendon Hooker, Tennessee (Rd 3-5) 89.0

 

I'm not convinced that Levis or Richardson will wind up being round 1 guys when all is said and done. I feel like Jefferson could pop up into the top 10 - top 15, especially if he keeps playing like he has been. We could see guys like Tanner Morgan or Taulia Tagovailoa enter the mix (especially with Tua's recent performance). 

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12 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

I think the verdict is still out on Jared Goff and he is still fairly young.  He may not be Matthew Stafford but he is a better option than Mitch Tribusky.  I like the idea of developing someone for a year in the same manner Patrick Mahomes sat behind Alex Smith but I don't know if we have done enough on the defensive side of the ball to go "all-in" on a young QB.  .  I agree 100% that we need a DT next to Aidan Huthcinson that will force teams to "pick their poison".  Levi Onwzurike's injury history should make this a top priority.  I do not agree with waiting until the 4th round to draft a LB.  Anzalone isn't a long-term answer.  Derrick Barnes hasn't taken a step forward in year 2 so he doesn't look like a long-term answer.  Malcom Rodriguez looks like a 6th-round steal but we need to add more talent to the LB Room.  

I was playing the role (in a way) of what our FO might do. They don't seem to value the LB position quite as much and seem content with adding guys in the mid-to-late rounds. So I didn't see the point in adding a guy earlier since it's much less likely they'd ever be considered for the Lions let alone wind up in Honolulu Blue and Silver. 

If Goff plays like he's a top 10 - 12 QB, we'd probably be looking at adding a QB in rounds 4-6 to develop as a back up as opposed to taking a guy in round 1. If the Lions are truly intent on Goff being the starter, I would not want to be taking a page out of the Packers playbook and drafting a 1st round guy only to have him sit for years when we could've better utilized that draft capital. We should either be taking a guy with the intent that he'll develop into our QBOTF and challenge Goff for the job or we wait and grab a guy who is sliding a bit to develop as a back up/spot starter. 

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