Week 3 GDT: San Francisco 49ers @ Denver Broncos

[paul-mac]

In a clash of two 1-1 teams, the Broncos stay home for this SNF affair. Jimmy Garoppolo will start at QB for the 49ers after Trey Lance broke his ankle yesterday. Denver await further news on the health of Jerry Jeudy and Patrick Surtain, but neither appear to have suffered major injuries. This Sunday might come too soon though.

 

The key to this game is simple, Denver needs to play mistake free football. No more silly penalties, no more redzone failures.

 

I optimistically think this is the week is all clicks for Hackett.

 

Denver 24

San Francisco 20 

[Broncofan]

3 prayers:

1.   Jeudy & PS2, please come back (but not if you're not ready).    Jeudy & Sutton built a nice connection with Wilson (can't wait until Hamler is ready, too).

2.   Hackett, I don't know what you have to do, but give something up so you can at least be average to OK in the HC areas you're responsible for.    Because right now, he sucks at game-calling, decision-making, and game management (getting the play calls off in time, using TO's, etc.).

3.  See #2.

[Broncofan]

Now, as to the SF-DEN matchup, it's a pick 'em, which means on the road, SF is seen as the better team (we used to be 2.5 pt faves, which essentially means we were seen as equal teams talent-wise).  And I think the prior evaluation and the current ones are accurate - because we're such a minus in the coaching department.  It's no exaggeration to say we've lost at least 6-7 pts each game due to coaching mismanagement alone - and if you include the 12-13 penalties, that has an effect as well. 

Still, taking out the coaching angle, the SF-DEN matchup is actually one with advantages on our side and theirs in a very tight pattern:

-SF's biggest problem on the OL is their IOL.  And while Trent Williams is a top 3 (if not the top) LT, McGlinchey is just average right now.  That means Dre'mont Jones could be a massive disruptor, and Randy Gregory, if he's moved around, could be an absolute force again.   Baron Browning and Bradley Chubb will need to be more visible this week, though, if Gregory & Williams stand each other off.   But it's definitely an area we could have a big advantage.  And JimmyG is a capable (if limited) manager, he's not good at all with pressure (unlike Kirk Cousins, for example, who's become excellent vs pressure).

-We've also been VERY unlucky in the TO department - we've forced 6 5 fumbles, and recovered 1 of them.  I love that about our D - it's getting sacks and creating TO chances.  THAT is what we want to see.

-If PS2 is back, that really can help provide an even tougher matchup, as SF pass O is really Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk (sound familiar?) when George Kittle is limited.  

-On O, if we had Hamler & Jeudy back, OMG what an upgrade.    If it's just Sutton & co., the SF D can really key on him.

-Javonte Williams needs to get 70 percent of the touches.   I get MG3 is capable, and a great blocker.  And you can't wear Javonte out.  But it should be 70-30, not 55-45.

Now, some major issues SF presents for us:

-First and foremost, their run game and Kittle could feast on our ILB's.   I think Kittle's likely playing, and JimmyG will look his way if he is.   JimmyG's success is almost all concentrated short and middle areas of the field (and int-middle), so I hope Evero (in his time with LAR), is ready for it.

-Deebo is a big part of the run game.  We will have to be great in run and YAC support

-Our ST is still suffering badly.  I have no idea how SF is doing, but in a close game, that's a huge issue.

-We've covered coaching ad nauseum, but I expect as much as Evero knows JimmyG and the SF O....they know Russell Wilson just as well.   When you add in Hackett's problems, it's hard not to be worried we'll be outcoached...by a fair margin.

 

I very much think it's a game either side can win - and who wins this game, they'll sudden have a ton of momentum.   I'm glad it's on SNF...I just hope it's not to witness the DEN fans (myself included obv) melting down at Hackett...for a third time in 3 tries.

Edited September 20, 2022 by Broncofan

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

I know it’s been frustrating but let’s take a step back from the edge for a minute and take a look. We KNEW that this scheme takes 6ish weeks to get set. We KNEW that the staff as a whole was young and would have growing pains/a learning curve when it came to the little things. We KNEW that they needed more preseason time, not less.

This has led to: turnover issues, clock management issues (especially getting the play in and the ball snapped on time), timing issues, dumb penalties, red zone issues. 

Yet despite all of that we have  allowed a total of 3 points in the second half this season (1st in the NFL). We are averaging 57 yards per drive (by far the best in the NFL).

all of the things we have seen are fixable. Let’s see if how they address it. 

[grizmo78]

2 hours ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

Yet despite all of that we have  allowed a total of 3 points in the second half this season (1st in the NFL). We are averaging 57 yards per drive (by far the best in the NFL).

Yeah, but that's because our field is 130 yards as opposed to everyone else's 100

[germ-x]

3 hours ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

I know it’s been frustrating but let’s take a step back from the edge for a minute and take a look. We KNEW that this scheme takes 6ish weeks to get set. We KNEW that the staff as a whole was young and would have growing pains/a learning curve when it came to the little things. We KNEW that they needed more preseason time, not less.

This has led to: turnover issues, clock management issues (especially getting the play in and the ball snapped on time), timing issues, dumb penalties, red zone issues. 

Yet despite all of that we have  allowed a total of 3 points in the second half this season (1st in the NFL). We are averaging 57 yards per drive (by far the best in the NFL).

all of the things we have seen are fixable. Let’s see if how they address it. 

They definitely deserve time.  As I said in a previous post they deserve a leash and we all should expect some growing pains.

Seattle and Houston are not good football teams.  Denver talent wise is easily better than both of those teams on every unit and probably at every position. 

We lost to Seattle and barely beat Houston because of coaching. 

[Broncofan]

8 hours ago, germ-x said:

They definitely deserve time.  As I said in a previous post they deserve a leash and we all should expect some growing pains.

Seattle and Houston are not good football teams.  Denver talent wise is easily better than both of those teams on every unit and probably at every position. 

We lost to Seattle and barely beat Houston because of coaching. 

It’s bad when coaches cost a team 3-4 pts.  In a game between 2 evenly matched teams that’s often enough.  
 

The coaching decisions alone have cost us at least 6 pts each game.   But penalties also limit O scoring output and increase the potential to give to pts on D.  At 12+ a game we can say coaching is likely costing us 7+ pts each game when the decisions already get us to 6.   That’s unfathomable.  

 
 

Still if we can win this one we’re 2-1.   The coaching though just can’t be as bad as it’s been for that to happen.   Learning curve or not the levels of ineptitude are historically bad.  
 

I remain optimistic about us long term as an org because the talent is there.   The scheme when applied on time and with proper play calling has worked well.    Our problems so far have been all coaching.   If there was significant improvement we’d all brush off week 1 as variance we see every year.  
 

This week is really going to say a lot about Hackett’s outlook for the rest of the year.   He doesn’t have to be perfect but man show clear progress in game calling and getting the plays to the O early.   And put the ball in your best players’ hands.   

Edited September 20, 2022 by Broncofan

[lomaxgrUK]

 

Just to put a bit more 'oomf' behind what we all know.

This Offense cannot continue to be so poor in situational circumstances. We all remember the 2008 Broncos, where we looked like unbelievable inbetween the 20's then our undersized OL got obliterated without the threat of deep throw Play Action.

Defensively, it's the usual - make the QB beat us. Win the early downs, force Jimmy G into 3rd and long then we tee off on their suspect OL. 

 

[big_palooka]

17 hours ago, Broncofan said:

2.   Hackett, I don't know what you have to do, but give something up so you can at least be average to OK in the HC areas you're responsible for.    Because right now, he sucks at game-calling, decision-making, and game management (getting the play calls off in time, using TO's, etc.).

2 weeks into the season and you want the HC who was hired because of his play calling and offensive scheme to give up calling the offense? Have to let him learn on the job right or wrong. But if your coach can't call plays, make decisions and manage a game.... you don't have a head coach. 

[Broncofan]

3 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

2 weeks into the season and you want the HC who was hired because of his play calling and offensive scheme to give up calling the offense? Have to let him learn on the job right or wrong. But if your coach can't call plays, make decisions and manage a game.... you don't have a head coach. 

If it doesn’t improve that’s the likely result.  

[big_palooka]

15 hours ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

I know it’s been frustrating but let’s take a step back from the edge for a minute and take a look. We KNEW that this scheme takes 6ish weeks to get set. We KNEW that the staff as a whole was young and would have growing pains/a learning curve when it came to the little things. We KNEW that they needed more preseason time, not less.

This has led to: turnover issues, clock management issues (especially getting the play in and the ball snapped on time), timing issues, dumb penalties, red zone issues. 

Yet despite all of that we have  allowed a total of 3 points in the second half this season (1st in the NFL). We are averaging 57 yards per drive (by far the best in the NFL).

all of the things we have seen are fixable. Let’s see if how they address it. 

They've played 2 likely bottom 5 teams in the NFL with Geno Smith and Davis Mills at QB, so hardly stats you can bank on . This game against the 49ers should be the barometer for where they are at. This is a complete team with a high end defense.

[paul-mac]

43 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

They've played 2 likely bottom 5 teams in the NFL with Geno Smith and Davis Mills at QB, so hardly stats you can bank on . This game against the 49ers should be the barometer for where they are at. This is a complete team with a high end defense.

I wasn’t expecting a visit from you this week after that disaster of a second half from your team. 

[MontanaBronco]

The optimist in me says we limit penalties and clean it up this week in route to a 24-20 win. Some signs of improvement from a game management/discipline perspective paired with a win would go a long way towards taking the heat off of Hackett. The NFL is a high pressure environment and you are never going to escape the pressure to perform, but already being on the "hot seat" can't make it any easier for a first year coach. 

Jeudy's health or the development of a second receiving threat is going to be huge as others have alluded too. Sutton is a very talented wide receiver, but his strengths are not tied to gaining consistent separation.(Although Sutton is very good at finding holes in the zone when plays break down). Against a good defense we aren't going to get away with Russ keying on Sutton and throwing jump/back shoulder balls all day. 

I am probably most interested in seeing how the defense performs. It is hard not to be optimistic about the talent of our defense, but to be fair we have played two very poor offensive teams. 

Overall, I think this game will be a good indicator of talent level if we play a clean game. 

 

[lomaxgrUK]

I just worry that the expectation from the average fan is going to be a significant improvement from our Offense in terms of point production, and this really isn't the week to expect that.

The 49ers have a stout Defense and their entire Offense MO is about controlling the tempo of the game and to run more Offensive plays than the opponent.

Even in a good week, a low scoring game with big plays in big moments is what wins this game, not a 30 point Offensive eruption.

Make no mistake - this is the first, "any win is a good win" game of the season. I'd have taken 2-1 at the start of the year. But 1-2 puts us in a hole and more importantly, the noise around Hackett and Wilson will just get louder and louder and louder.

[jsthomp2007]

70 years FG for the win by the Broncos in OT!