Scouting the NFL 2023 Draft Prospects

[deeluxx3]

37 minutes ago, KingTitan said:

A deeper question would be what was Wentz's downfall?  Was it his ego? His attitude? 
Because the league had crowned him as the chosen one after his 2nd season. 3000 plus Yards, 33 TDs/7 INTs.

4000 yards, 27 TDs 7 INTs.
Even last year statistically, 3500 yards, 27 TDs, 7INTs.

So he has shown he can play in the league. So what is his issue? From what I've read it's his attitude. 

If we get a version of Wentz without the attitude is that not a win?

i recall folks in this very forum crowning wentz

[twotonebluenation]

I get it, it's in all fun, but I always have found it funny for people to make grand proclamations about prospects coming out of college. Whether you love a guy or not that's fine. But the pros of the pros consistently get this wrong.

I can watch tape and think I like something. Or just love what I see from a guy. But the more I know the more I just relize I, or anybody else, just really doesn't know. 

So many things play into if a prospect is going to pan out. If Mahomes, Allen or Burrow go to other scenarios, are we talking about them the way we are now? The smallest things can deter players paths to being optimal.

Just looked at the past 12ish drafts. It's wild how little the amount of top 10 qb picks pan out. Makes me quite weary of getting one early this year. Idk, the balance of it is so hard.

I more or so love the process of understanding more, when it comes to prospects. How they jump off the tape, stats, conference they played in, the journeys they have taken.

I love the stance the Ravens take with drafting players. Just take the BPA. I think I will always stand by that. I want a qb, especially a young one, but at the cost of what? I think with a coach like Vrabel, just compile as much playmaking (guys who can just take over) as you can and I think the rest will take care of itself.

[TitanSlim]

37 minutes ago, KingTitan said:

Dunno, maybe? lol

Comparisons are a big part of the NFL draf process. 

I’m all for comparisons. I just find it hard comparing prospects to a guy who may end up being the best QB we’ve ever seen and another guy who’s developed at a level rarely seen before at QB. Like I said before, a “raw” QB prospect developing into the next Mahomes/Allen, is the same as getting that sixth round guy to be the next Brady.

I’m not saying it’s impossible for Levis, Richardson or any future “raw, developmental” QB to reach that elite level but it takes a lot. You got to have the right coaching, surrounding talent, team culture, overall situation, the player’s makeup and mindset, ect.

[KingTitan]

49 minutes ago, TitanSlim said:

I’m all for comparisons. I just find it hard comparing prospects to a guy who may end up being the best QB we’ve ever seen and another guy who’s developed at a level rarely seen before at QB. Like I said before, a “raw” QB prospect developing into the next Mahomes/Allen, is the same as getting that sixth round guy to be the next Brady.

I’m not saying it’s impossible for Levis, Richardson or any future “raw, developmental” QB to reach that elite level but it takes a lot. You got to have the right coaching, surrounding talent, team culture, overall situation, the player’s makeup and mindset, ect.

Well what's the fun in saying that this guy might be the next Rich Gannon or next Joe Flacco. Lol. 

I know me personally I used those extreme examples just to show how these routine evaluations are similar in talking about their flaws. 

But I don't see Levis as raw. He needs work and refinement. 

But I do think evaluations are different now a days. It's harder to compare players from even 4 years ago to now. 

With transfer portals, COVID Years and nothing but spread, I think we will be more dependent on projections than production. 

The player mindset is my main trait. How much will a player work to be good and how much do they want to win. 

[Daniel]

2 hours ago, TitanSlim said:

So, we’re going to compare every raw QB prospect with crazy physical tools to Josh Allen or Mahomes every year, huh? It’s like the new version of a sixth round QB being compared to Brady. 

Yep.

1 hour ago, twotonebluenation said:

I get it, it's in all fun, but I always have found it funny for people to make grand proclamations about prospects coming out of college. Whether you love a guy or not that's fine. But the pros of the pros consistently get this wrong.

Partially, yes, but one thing that the draft community has finally started to come to the realization of is that the situation a prospect lands in has as much to do with how they pan out as the latent talent of the prospect themselves.

Then there's also the fact that you have to adjust what people "got wrong" based on what expectations are.  A good example being guys who are raw, but blow the combine away.  They get drafted way, way higher than their play dictates, because the draft is an exercise in calculated risk.

Teams gamble on players all the time, knowing there's a very good chance that they won't pan out, but that if they do, they'll hit big.  Josh Allen is a great example of that working out well.  He was a raw QB from a small school, but he had an absolutely enormous arm, prototype size, and athletic ability.  Coaches looked at him and said, hey, if I can get him to make better decisions and improve his accuracy a bit, we can have a real winner.  It worked, but there's been a ridiculous number of similar QBs in the past that have all busted.

And it's not that those teams got them wrong, they took calculated risks (sometimes, at least).

Generally, if a player that has a whole lot of traits that pan out one out of 100 times, and fail the other 99, you can probably say that's a bad risk to take, until of course, it gets later on in the draft.

[KingTitan]

And to me it's not about comparing them to Mahomes or Allen.  

It's about understanding there are multiple ways to find your QB. Not just picking one in the top 3. 

Winston and Mariota shows that isn't the only way. And Allen, Easton, Mahomes and even Lamar show that you don't have to be the stereotypical college QB to have success in the league. 

That's the comparison. That's the reason to refer to those guys. 

"We got to get a guy who was super successful in college, put up great numbers. Won a lot a games. Went to a big school."

Then comes Mayfield. Darnold. Wilson. Murray. Tua. 

But when someone like Herbert comes in and people question if he can play in the league because of his system. People pay more attention to the skills opposed to only the things they saw in games. 

 

 

[TitanSS]

3 hours ago, KingTitan said:

A deeper question would be what was Wentz's downfall?  Was it his ego? His attitude? 
Because the league had crowned him as the chosen one after his 2nd season. 3000 plus Yards, 33 TDs/7 INTs.

4000 yards, 27 TDs 7 INTs.
Even last year statistically, 3500 yards, 27 TDs, 7INTs.

So he has shown he can play in the league. So what is his issue? From what I've read it's his attitude. 

If we get a version of Wentz without the attitude is that not a win?

No idea what caused it, but he makes horrible decisions. I'm assuming he was good when he had really good pass protection and not so good when the pass protection faltered.

 

[KingTitan]

One more thing. 

What if Burrow decided to leave after his  4rh year instead of staying for that 5th year at LSU?  Would he still be Burrow?  He had the same skills. But not the opportunity and production. 

Do we think he wouldn't have been good because of that ,extra year or do we think he would have eventually become the same player because of who he is?  

After that first year under 60 completion percentage. Under 3000 yards. Only 16 TDs. 

Or what he transferred to South Carolina instead of LSU?

Just curious of the thoughts. 

[KingTitan]

5 minutes ago, TitanSS said:

No idea what caused it, but he makes horrible decisions. I'm assuming he was good when he had really good pass protection and not so good when the pass protection faltered.

 

Alrighty. 

Sadly that would cause a lot of qbs to become garbage lol 

[TitanSlim]

57 minutes ago, KingTitan said:

One more thing. 

What if Burrow decided to leave after his  4rh year instead of staying for that 5th year at LSU?  Would he still be Burrow?  He had the same skills. But not the opportunity and production. 

Do we think he wouldn't have been good because of that ,extra year or do we think he would have eventually become the same player because of who he is?  

After that first year under 60 completion percentage. Under 3000 yards. Only 16 TDs. 

 

I honestly don’t think he’d be the same Burrow we see today. You really can’t underestimate how big a difference there is between 13 career collegiate starts vs 28 career collegiate starts (including SEC Championship and College Playoffs). 
 

In fact, your comment made me want to do a quick look at the top (30 and under) QBs currently in the NFL and how many career collegiate games they started. Without further ado….

Mahomes-29 starts

Allen-25 starts

Burrow-28 starts

Herbert-42 starts

Lamar-34 starts

Hurts-42 starts

Lawrence-26 starts

Kyler-17 starts

Dak-33 starts

After doing this very brief and limited research, I’ve come to the conclusion that I need my QB to have started at least 20 (preferably 25 or more) games before I draft him. I’m half serious when I say I may be out on Richardson after this. 

Edited January 23, 2023 by TitanSlim

[TitanSS]

4 hours ago, KingTitan said:

Alrighty. 

Sadly that would cause a lot of qbs to become garbage lol 

That's the thing about the "must get a QB" argument. QBs stay in the league for 15 years and there's still only a handful of guys who can play above their surroundings. 

The rest of them revert back to the Kirk Cousins zone, just as Tannehill did, when their surroundings change.

Getting a QB is more about luck than tanking and deciding you're going all in for one. Occasionally shoot your shot at traits if you think the value is right.

[TitanSS]

Big Board at 11:
1. Paris Johnson Jr.

2. Myles Murphy

3. Tyree Wilson

4. Christian Gonzalez

5. Devon Witherspoon

6. Quentin Johnston

7. Broderick Jones

8. Jordan Addison

9. Anthony Richardson

10. Joey Porter Jr.

11. Michael Mayer

12. Brian Branch

Weighted for our team needs. I left out the people who I think are 100% off the board, and I think there's a very high chance the first 3 on this list are gone.

It's unpopular, but I think I'd rather get a CB who's a top 12 player than an OT who's just inside the top 25 but will go top 15 because the OT class is weak at the top. Fans might riot if we go defense with our offense being as terrible as it was, but man, I'd hate to lose a lot of value to draft need as the main priority.

If you think Quentin Johnston can be better in the pros than he was in college, he's an interesting prospect.

Edited January 24, 2023 by TitanSS

[twotonebluenation]

28 minutes ago, TitanSS said:

That's the thing about the "must get a QB" argument. QBs stay in the league for 15 years and there's still only a handful of guys who can play above their surroundings. 

The rest of them revert back to the Kirk Cousins zone, just as Tannehill did, when their surroundings change.

Getting a QB is more about luck than tanking and deciding you're going all in for one. Occasionally shoot your shot at traits if you think the value is right.

[KingTitan]

31 minutes ago, TitanSS said:

That's the thing about the "must get a QB" argument. QBs stay in the league for 15 years and there's still only a handful of guys who can play above their surroundings. 

The rest of them revert back to the Kirk Cousins zone, just as Tannehill did, when their surroundings change.

Getting a QB is more about luck than tanking and deciding you're going all in for one. Occasionally shoot your shot at traits if you think the value is right.

Never know until you draft one. Lol 

Do your research and take your shot.

Might get Burrow who can withstand 9 sacks. 

Might get Sam Darnold seeing ghost. 

Never know. 

I'm still all for go get the QB If you believe.

You can build the perfect team and like you said won't mean anything If at the first sign of trouble they turn to primetime Cousins. 

I'd hate to be stuck in Tannehill land. Building a good roster to only get a mid QB that teases us and then we fall to the side once the roster gets too expensive. 

But are we able to get the one we believe? Can Ran identify a guy via trade or draft that is potentially that guy?  

[twotonebluenation]

4 minutes ago, KingTitan said:

Never know until you draft one. Lol 

Do your research and take your shot.

Might get Burrow who can withstand 9 sacks. 

Might get Sam Darnold seeing ghost. 

Never know. 

I'm still all for go get the QB If you believe.

You can build the perfect team and like you said won't mean anything If at the first sign of trouble they turn to primetime Cousins. 

I'd hate to be stuck in Tannehill land. Building a good roster to only get a mid QB that teases us and then we fall to the side once the roster gets too expensive. 

But are we able to get the one we believe? Can Ran identify a guy via trade or draft that is potentially that guy?  

You gotta know a guy who knows a guy! Just get it right!