What We Learned After Four Games

[Just Want A Title]

After four games some things about this year's Lions team have become apparent:

1.  DeAndre Swift can't handle a full-time RB role.  18-22 touches per game seems to be his limit

2. Ben Johnson has done a really good job as OC.  It will be interesting to see how he adapts as teams break down the film on our offense

3.  There is something fundamentally wrong with our defense.  We don't have a lot of talent our problems aren't about talent.  

4.  We really need Josh Pascal and John Cominsky to get healthy.

5.  Teams recognize that our LBs are not great and continue to attack them.  Failing to add more talent at this position is really biting us in the back-side

6.  Alim McNeil hasn't become the dominant DT that folks were expecting.  Are the Lions using him incorrectly?

 

What does everyone else see?

[cp0k2]

5 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

After four games some things about this year's Lions team have become apparent:

1.  DeAndre Swift can't handle a full-time RB role.  18-22 touches per game seems to be his limit

2. Ben Johnson has done a really good job as OC.  It will be interesting to see how he adapts as teams break down the film on our offense

3.  There is something fundamentally wrong with our defense.  We don't have a lot of talent our problems aren't about talent.  

4.  We really need Josh Pascal and John Cominsky to get healthy.

5.  Teams recognize that our LBs are not great and continue to attack them.  Failing to add more talent at this position is really biting us in the back-side

6.  Alim McNeil hasn't become the dominant DT that folks were expecting.  Are the Lions using him incorrectly?

 

What does everyone else see?

1. He can't even handle that. 18, 7, and 10 touches in three games. He's dynamic when he plays, but he can't be counted on and Detroit should not pay him.

2. Agreed. If he keeps this up, he'll be a hot name in a year or two for a head coaching gig.

3. Agreed. The secondary plays with too much cushion and the front 7 cannot generate pressure even when blitzing a lot. 

4. Agreed.

5. Agreed.

6. He's better suited to being a 1 gap penetrator, but he's asked to hold 2 gaps. It also doesn't help that the talent around him is underwhelming.

As for my own additions to the list, I do not like Aaron Glenn's defensive philosophies. The personnel is better suited to a 4-3 than a 3-4, the team does not have the inside LBers or 2 gap DL to make it work. I didn't like when he played prevent at the end of games last year letting teams kick winning FGs several times and he still has not adjusted as shown last week against Minnesota. He seems to be locked into his way of doing things and won't adjust regardless of the results. Reminds me of Marinelli to an extent. Hey Rod, this clearly isn't working, have you thought about changing it up? Nope, the plan is solid we just need to have better pad level, fit, and finish. The defense needs more talent for sure, but Glenn doesn't seem willing to adjust to what he has or go away from what doesn't work.

 

[vike daddy]

Good news: The Lions’ offense is on pace to score more points than all but one other team in NFL history. Bad news: The Lions’ defense is on pace to allow by far the most points of any team in NFL history.

Through four games, the Lions have scored 140 games and allowed 141. That puts them on pace to score 595 points over 17 games this season and allow 599.

The NFL record for points scored in a season was 606 by Peyton Manning and the Broncos in 2013. If the Lions keep scoring at their current pace, they’ll fall just short of that record and move into second place, just ahead of the 16-0 2007 Patriots

The all-time record for most points allowed was 533 by the Baltimore Colts in 1981. If the Lions keep giving up points at their current pace, they’ll blow past that record in the 16th game of this season.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2022/10/03/lions-on-pace-to-allow-the-most-points-in-nfl-history-and-to-score-the-second-most/

[LionArkie]

18 minutes ago, vike daddy said:

Good news: The Lions’ offense is on pace to score more points than all but one other team in NFL history. Bad news: The Lions’ defense is on pace to allow by far the most points of any team in NFL history.

Through four games, the Lions have scored 140 games and allowed 141. That puts them on pace to score 595 points over 17 games this season and allow 599.

The NFL record for points scored in a season was 606 by Peyton Manning and the Broncos in 2013. If the Lions keep scoring at their current pace, they’ll fall just short of that record and move into second place, just ahead of the 16-0 2007 Patriots

The all-time record for most points allowed was 533 by the Baltimore Colts in 1981. If the Lions keep giving up points at their current pace, they’ll blow past that record in the 16th game of this season.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2022/10/03/lions-on-pace-to-allow-the-most-points-in-nfl-history-and-to-score-the-second-most/

[LionArkie]

I like Dan Campbell. I didn't hear the post game interview, but I read he made the following statement: “We turned the ball over twice, and one of them went for seven points. That’s the difference in the game”. Now I get trying to shield the defense somewhat, but in no way was this the issue. Part of the issue, sure ... I guess. But when you drop 45 with no help from the defense or the kicking game then it is not on the offense. Campbell has always been very honest and genuine. This has endeared him to the media and the fans. However, this seemed like a very disingenuous statement. Expecting the offense to be perfect so you can score 60 because your defense can't stop 50 is not the right solution.

Edited October 3, 2022 by LionArkie

[Sllim Pickens]

14 hours ago, cp0k2 said:

As for my own additions to the list, I do not like Aaron Glenn's defensive philosophies. The personnel is better suited to a 4-3 than a 3-4, the team does not have the inside LBers or 2 gap DL to make it work. I didn't like when he played prevent at the end of games last year letting teams kick winning FGs several times and he still has not adjusted as shown last week against Minnesota. He seems to be locked into his way of doing things and won't adjust regardless of the results. Reminds me of Marinelli to an extent. Hey Rod, this clearly isn't working, have you thought about changing it up? Nope, the plan is solid we just need to have better pad level, fit, and finish. The defense needs more talent for sure, but Glenn doesn't seem willing to adjust to what he has or go away from what doesn't work.

 

We haven't ran a 3-4 at all this year have we?  They mentioned in the offseason we would be shifting to a 4-3 but tend to run more 4-2 or 4-1 with more DBs as the game has changed.  We actually were a better D last year with the 3-4 line with our smaller DE/Edge guys playing more of the OLB role.  

I do agree the scheme is off and needs adjusting.  It is easy to exploit and other teams will continue to use this film to attack us.  

[Sllim Pickens]

27 minutes ago, LionArkie said:

I like Dan Campbell. I didn't hear the post game interview, but I read he made the following statement: “We turned the ball over twice, and one of them went for seven points. That’s the difference in the game”. Now I get trying to shield the defense somewhat, but in no way was this the issue. Part of the issue, sure ... I guess. But when you drop 45 with no help from the defense or the kicking game then it is not on the offense. Campbell has always been very honest and genuine. This has endeared him to the media and the fans. However, this seemed like a very disingenuous statement. Expecting the offense to be perfect so you can score 60 because your defense can't stop 50 is not the right solution.

I completely agree, especially because Seattle lost a fumble as well.  I get not throwing Glenn under the bus but in doing so he threw Goff and the offense under the bus.  I think the whole team including Glenn know they are the problem, so just say that.  We have to be bringing people in at this point and trying some new bodies because what we have isnt working.  I know we are the youngest team in the league and we have significant injuries to like 6 starters but still, we should be better than this.  

[Lions017]

Offensively this team looks great. Goff could maybe...actually...sort of work for a few years? If we're drafting Top 5 and a guy falls into our lap that we love I would 100% pull the trigger, but Goff at least gives you a chance to wait for the right opportunity/player.

Defensively, the team is a mess. The defensive line looks improved but still needs to step up. 

The problem is that the linebackers and secondary are a disaster. Rodriguez has potential, but he's a rookie. Okudah has played well. Walker is good but is out for the year. That's about it. Our linebackers are well below average and so are the other corners and safeties. We have a lot of guys that would be backups or roleplayers on other teams that are starting for us back there, and teams are going to continue to take advantage. 

[Karnage84]

1 hour ago, Lions017 said:

Offensively this team looks great. Goff could maybe...actually...sort of work for a few years? If we're drafting Top 5 and a guy falls into our lap that we love I would 100% pull the trigger, but Goff at least gives you a chance to wait for the right opportunity/player.

Defensively, the team is a mess. The defensive line looks improved but still needs to step up. 

The problem is that the linebackers and secondary are a disaster. Rodriguez has potential, but he's a rookie. Okudah has played well. Walker is good but is out for the year. That's about it. Our linebackers are well below average and so are the other corners and safeties. We have a lot of guys that would be backups or roleplayers on other teams that are starting for us back there, and teams are going to continue to take advantage. 

According to PFF, Rodrigo is the #20 LB in the NFL. He has vastly outplayed his draft position and is a key player on this defense. 

We need somebody to be that focal point on the defensive interior so that we can get Hutch lined up 1 on 1. He's gonna have to improve his own game but he has to the tools to do it. 

Okudah has finally come into his own but AO has just dropped off in a big way. We're going to need to address the CB position again early on. 

All of the things that I thought about this defense coming into the season have proven to be the opposite - I expected us to have a very deep DL rotation and we'd be able to put a lot of pressure on the opposition; I expected our secondary to have a lot of depth and that if we got anything out of Okudah it would be a bonus; we wouldn't get much help from the LB's and we'd be completely revamping that position group (Rodriguez was a throw away pick); we'd get more out of the safety group after paying Walker and moving guys like Iffy over while also adding Kerby via the draft. 

Unfortunately - our DL has been vastly eroded by injuries and poor play (our 2nd round talent can't even get on the field); Okudah has been the lone bright spot in the corners; Rodrigo is a bonafide stud but the rest of the LB group needs to be gutted and started over; Without Walker, we have nothing in the back end. 

[Superduperman]

I'm more disappointed in the DL than the secondary. I think Elliott and Okudah have both had moments of good play. If the Lions could bother the QB in any way, they would all look better, but outside of one half from Hutchinson and a small handful of plays from McNeill and Harris, no one on the DL has done ****. All of our DTs are terrible. I see Paschal may be nearing return; if they can get him back I'd cut Brockers as the corresponding move.

Edited October 3, 2022 by Superduperman

[Sllim Pickens]

17 hours ago, Superduperman said:

I'm more disappointed in the DL than the secondary. I think Elliott and Okudah have both had moments of good play. If the Lions could bother the QB in any way, they would all look better, but outside of one half from Hutchinson and a small handful of plays from McNeill and Harris, no one on the DL has done ****. All of our DTs are terrible. I see Paschal may be nearing return; if they can get him back I'd cut Brockers as the corresponding move.

Agreed but not sure we can with the dead cap hit it would cause.  He definitely is cut next year though with only 3.9M being dead.  That extension they gave him was a huge mistake but fortunately it isn't a long term mistake. 

I also would see if Suh wants to come back and be a rotational DT to finish out his career but he is probably waiting to see if someone like the Bills or Eagles want to sign him.  

[LionArkie]

I have yet to watch the entire game. I've only made it to the clock fiasco. Which leads me to wonder if the home team clock operator still has a job? He very well may have lost that game. We know football is about momentum and that was the defenses first stop. Shoulda, woulda, coulda, I know ... but still. Huge screw up on their part.

Anyways, we are 4 games into the second year of the rebuild of a completely decimated roster from the Quintricia era. The Lions have done wonders on the offensive side of the ball. To me, Goff looks legit. Yes, he's thrown two pick sixes but he reminds me of a more consistent Stafford (with less of an arm) at the same age. I feel he is the long term answer. He's dropping what 40 points a game on NFL teams? What more are you going to hope to get out of an unproven rookie. At best, you're looking at another Goff.

Holmes has invested in the defense with youth. Hutchison, Levi, McNeil, Melifonwu, Barnes, Paschal, Joseph, and struck gold late with Rodriguez. However, out of those 7 defensive picks in the first 4 rounds 3 have had significant injuries and 1 is a ST player at best. BTW is Melifonwu even playing right now? Is he injured? I'm seeing no stats on him and not remembering ever seeing him in a game (but I'm old and the memory isn't what it used to be).  Where Holmes has done well for the defense is later rounds (Rodrigo) and undrafted FA (Jacobs), but even then Jacobs was lost to injury. I think it is important to remember that the losses to Levi, Jacobs, Melifonwu have stutned the growth of this defense this year. If Paschal doesn't return, which I'm sure he will, that is going to hurt the defenses growth even more. So as much as we want to put it on Glenn, I'm looking right at Holmes for the talent on Defense. Now I think he has gone after talent, but the high risk of going after talented injured players in the second and first is not paying off. And whoever cleared Levi during the draft process medically should be fired.

So no picks in the second contributing in two years of drafts for the regime, 1 of the 3 first round picks has yet to contribute. 2 out of 3 of the first two rounds of the 2022 draft are not contributing this year. No real free agent moves to build this team up. I'm sorry, but this team wasn't going to compete this year no matter how much hard knocks convinced us otherwise. And yes, the kool aid was exceptional this year. This team is built for next year. Look at the one year contracts given in free agency to act as stop gaps.  Holmes has built an offense in an offensive league. I fully expect him to build a functional defense, but he is going to have to build it through the middle. Hutch was playing better when Cominsky was there and I think losing Cominsky and Walker (middle of defense) has really hurt this already anemic defense.

This is still a talent issue, and I feel looking at that second round picks, especially as it seems that's where Holmes is emphasizing defense, should be a point of concern if Holmes can turn this defense around. Campbell aluded to it in the press conference. They have no confidence and don't trust one another. I'm wondering if that is the issue with amani oruwariye. How did he fall so far from what looked like a promising career? I'm thinking he's not trusting his teammates and rightfully so.

In the end the defense is the issue, but I don't believe it is Glenn. I think it is Holmes.

[vike daddy]

 

[Karnage84]

On 10/3/2022 at 11:14 AM, Lions017 said:

Offensively this team looks great. Goff could maybe...actually...sort of work for a few years? If we're drafting Top 5 and a guy falls into our lap that we love I would 100% pull the trigger, but Goff at least gives you a chance to wait for the right opportunity/player.

Defensively, the team is a mess. The defensive line looks improved but still needs to step up. 

The problem is that the linebackers and secondary are a disaster. Rodriguez has potential, but he's a rookie. Okudah has played well. Walker is good but is out for the year. That's about it. Our linebackers are well below average and so are the other corners and safeties. We have a lot of guys that would be backups or roleplayers on other teams that are starting for us back there, and teams are going to continue to take advantage. 

I may be in the minority (and we have a long season ahead of us). I'd look at extending Goff another year. We can drop his cap hit for 2023, add some talent via free agency and the draft on the defensive side of the ball. It would give us flexibility to take our QBOTF in either the 2023 or 2024 draft. He's performed well enough that we should be looking to address the talent around him. Even if we had the 20th ranked defense (KC), averaging 24.0 pts/game against we'd be undefeated at this point by a wide margin. Heck, we'd be undefeated if we had the 31st ranked defense (Seattle) with 28.8 points against. 

[LionArkie]

52 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

I may be in the minority (and we have a long season ahead of us). I'd look at extending Goff another year. We can drop his cap hit for 2023, add some talent via free agency and the draft on the defensive side of the ball. It would give us flexibility to take our QBOTF in either the 2023 or 2024 draft. He's performed well enough that we should be looking to address the talent around him. Even if we had the 20th ranked defense (KC), averaging 24.0 pts/game against we'd be undefeated at this point by a wide margin. Heck, we'd be undefeated if we had the 31st ranked defense (Seattle) with 28.8 points against. 

I'm with you on most of this.