What We Learned After Four Games

[Nnivolcm]

53 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

I may be in the minority (and we have a long season ahead of us). I'd look at extending Goff another year. We can drop his cap hit for 2023, add some talent via free agency and the draft on the defensive side of the ball. It would give us flexibility to take our QBOTF in either the 2023 or 2024 draft. He's performed well enough that we should be looking to address the talent around him. Even if we had the 20th ranked defense (KC), averaging 24.0 pts/game against we'd be undefeated at this point by a wide margin. Heck, we'd be undefeated if we had the 31st ranked defense (Seattle) with 28.8 points against. 

I'd be alright with extending Goff below market value. If he wants a cap crippling deal so many other QBs are getting I'd move on.

[Karnage84]

Just now, Nnivolcm said:

I'd be alright with extending Goff below market value. If he wants a cap crippling deal so many other QBs are getting I'd move on.

I worked out a contract that would 

a) Give him a $20M signing bonus

b) 2023 Cap Hit of $21M (down from $30.6M) with around $40M of deap cap if cut

c) 2024 Cap Hit of $45M (with $28M of cap saved if cut)

d) 2025 cap hit of $41M

We'd wind up with nearly $60M in cap room with some expected moves (cut Brockers, Vaitai, Romeo). Looking at the 2023 free agent class, I'm having a hard time figuring out who to throw that money at but it'd be there. We'd be in the top 6 for cap space with a team that should be viewed as a desirable landing spot as a team getting ready to make the leap (which has not been the case for many years).

[Sllim Pickens]

16 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

I worked out a contract that would 

a) Give him a $20M signing bonus

b) 2023 Cap Hit of $21M (down from $30.6M) with around $40M of deap cap if cut

c) 2024 Cap Hit of $45M (with $28M of cap saved if cut)

d) 2025 cap hit of $41M

We'd wind up with nearly $60M in cap room with some expected moves (cut Brockers, Vaitai, Romeo). Looking at the 2023 free agent class, I'm having a hard time figuring out who to throw that money at but it'd be there. We'd be in the top 6 for cap space with a team that should be viewed as a desirable landing spot as a team getting ready to make the leap (which has not been the case for many years).

I don’t want a cap hit like that in 24 or 25, especially when as you mentioned the free agent class isn’t great.  I’d rather sign him to a deal that has a bigger cap hit next year while many of our young guys are on rookie deals and thins out later when they need extensions.  I think Goff has been good but not great.  His two pick 6’s have been killers. Also if the D wasn’t giving up 50 a game we wouldn’t be running an offense for him to put up these numbers.  He has the yards and TDs but his comp % and 3rd down play hasn’t been good.  That’s volume not skill.  I would love to keep him on a reasonable deal but the best way to win is with a QB who doesn’t eat your whole cap especially if they are the quality of Goff. 

[Karnage84]

1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I don’t want a cap hit like that in 24 or 25, especially when as you mentioned the free agent class isn’t great.  I’d rather sign him to a deal that has a bigger cap hit next year while many of our young guys are on rookie deals and thins out later when they need extensions.  I think Goff has been good but not great.  His two pick 6’s have been killers. Also if the D wasn’t giving up 50 a game we wouldn’t be running an offense for him to put up these numbers.  He has the yards and TDs but his comp % and 3rd down play hasn’t been good.  That’s volume not skill.  I would love to keep him on a reasonable deal but the best way to win is with a QB who doesn’t eat your whole cap especially if they are the quality of Goff. 

He's been good enough that I do think we can try to build more of a team around him before plugging in the next guy. We've seen the 49ers make an investment in Lance, red-shirt him and then have him play awful. His injury was a plus for the 49ers to avoid a major QB controversy. We've seen Jordan Love do nothing. We've seen Justin Fields struggle.

With the way that Goff and the offense is playing now, I'd be much happier if we drafted high level defensive players in 2023, added to the OL, add a mid-round QB to develop (possibly as a backup) and then look at 2024 as the year we find his replacement. 

 

 

[Sllim Pickens]

4 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

He's been good enough that I do think we can try to build more of a team around him before plugging in the next guy. We've seen the 49ers make an investment in Lance, red-shirt him and then have him play awful. His injury was a plus for the 49ers to avoid a major QB controversy. We've seen Jordan Love do nothing. We've seen Justin Fields struggle.

With the way that Goff and the offense is playing now, I'd be much happier if we drafted high level defensive players in 2023, added to the OL, add a mid-round QB to develop (possibly as a backup) and then look at 2024 as the year we find his replacement. 

 

 

I am fine with that, and there is always a chance we end up with a decent QB in the mid rounds that can fill in after another year.  We have him locked in for another 2 years at a reasonable amount for a very good QB so why extend him now?  We likely won't need the cap room next year as much so why keep kicking the issues down the road?  Just let him hit 30M against the cap the next two years and then see where we are at between franchise tag, extension, trade etc.  

[Karnage84]

5 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I am fine with that, and there is always a chance we end up with a decent QB in the mid rounds that can fill in after another year.  We have him locked in for another 2 years at a reasonable amount for a very good QB so why extend him now?  We likely won't need the cap room next year as much so why keep kicking the issues down the road?  Just let him hit 30M against the cap the next two years and then see where we are at between franchise tag, extension, trade etc.  

If we don't draft a QB in 2023, then we're looking at either 2024 or 2025. Extending [Goff] an additional year gives us the flexibility to replace him between 2024 and 2026. 

In 2024 we're going to have to re-sign: TJ, Jonah, Swift and/or Okudah

In 2025 we're going to have to re-sign: Sewell, ARSB, Alim

Campbell has been hired until 2027, however we're going to have to start seeing things shift in a positive direction by 2024/2025 in order for him to finish out that contract, let alone get an extension. We're going to need to add some talent on the defensive side of the ball. 

Roquan Smith, Jessie Bates, Byron Murphy are just a couple UFA's that we could use to help revamp the defense. 

If we draft our QBOTF in 2024, then we can give them a redshirt year and start in 2025 and cutting JG for pretty significant cap savings. He'd be a UFA in 2026. 

Walter Football has a couple QB's in the mix for round 1 of 2024

- Caleb Williams, USC

- Anthony Richardson, Florida (must expect him to return to school in 2023)

PFF has a couple guys that we've talked about in other threads (just to name a few)

- Shrader (Syracuse)

- Uiagalelei (Clemson)

- Rising (Utah)

- Mertz (Wisconsin)

- Mckee (Stanford)

- Hall (BYU)

With the way Goff has been playing, even if things are a bit skewed, I'd rather address other spots on the roster and punt adding a QBOTF to another year (barring a huge drop like Stroud or Young falling to us in the bottom of the top 10). 

[Sllim Pickens]

30 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

If we don't draft a QB in 2023, then we're looking at either 2024 or 2025. Extending [Goff] an additional year gives us the flexibility to replace him between 2024 and 2026. 

In 2024 we're going to have to re-sign: TJ, Jonah, Swift and/or Okudah

In 2025 we're going to have to re-sign: Sewell, ARSB, Alim

Campbell has been hired until 2027, however we're going to have to start seeing things shift in a positive direction by 2024/2025 in order for him to finish out that contract, let alone get an extension. We're going to need to add some talent on the defensive side of the ball. 

Roquan Smith, Jessie Bates, Byron Murphy are just a couple UFA's that we could use to help revamp the defense. 

If we draft our QBOTF in 2024, then we can give them a redshirt year and start in 2025 and cutting JG for pretty significant cap savings. He'd be a UFA in 2026. 

Walter Football has a couple QB's in the mix for round 1 of 2024

- Caleb Williams, USC

- Anthony Richardson, Florida (must expect him to return to school in 2023)

PFF has a couple guys that we've talked about in other threads (just to name a few)

- Shrader (Syracuse)

- Uiagalelei (Clemson)

- Rising (Utah)

- Mertz (Wisconsin)

- Mckee (Stanford)

- Hall (BYU)

With the way Goff has been playing, even if things are a bit skewed, I'd rather address other spots on the roster and punt adding a QBOTF to another year (barring a huge drop like Stroud or Young falling to us in the bottom of the top 10). 

Drafting a QB in the 2023 draft has to happen at some point.  At least a back up but with potential (Dak/Wilson/Hurts/etc types).  That allows us to add to the defense this offseason with 2 years remaining for Goff.  There are no significant contracts we need to sign this offseason other than AO and maybe Evan Brown if he signs cheap.  It would be nice to keep Deshon Elliott and Jamaal Williams around and maybe Chark if he reduces his salary. But nothing super significant.  

After 2023, we can reassess if adding defensive talent helped and if our rookie QB improved and has starter potential.  Swift and Hockenson will need deals but we shouldn't give them huge long deals.  Swift can't stay healthy and Hock is good but then disappears for stretches.  Jonah Jackson will need a contract but likely will take what Big V gives back when cut.  

After 2024 we have to resign ARSB and McNeil and figure out what we are doing with Goff. Sewell is signed through the 2025 season so can wait a year for him to resign and when he does, Taylor Decker will fall off.  We shouldn't be worrying at this point about this far out but don't want bad contracts affecting our ability to resign or sign guys.  So pushing more Goff money into that year doesn't make sense because the young talent will need to be re-signed then and I would rather take the hit next year.  

As for QB prospects, looking at 2024 is crazy because there isn't a transcendent talent like Lawrence at this point and the rankings will swap around like crazy by then.  Caleb Williams might be but I doubt we are picking #1 then so I am not planning on him.  I want to grab someone this year, be hopeful and then reassess  next offseason. Goff is playing good enough to not be replaced next year so lets focus on next year.  

[Karnage84]

51 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Drafting a QB in the 2023 draft has to happen at some point.  At least a back up but with potential (Dak/Wilson/Hurts/etc types).  That allows us to add to the defense this offseason with 2 years remaining for Goff.  There are no significant contracts we need to sign this offseason other than AO and maybe Evan Brown if he signs cheap.  It would be nice to keep Deshon Elliott and Jamaal Williams around and maybe Chark if he reduces his salary. But nothing super significant.  

After 2023, we can reassess if adding defensive talent helped and if our rookie QB improved and has starter potential.  Swift and Hockenson will need deals but we shouldn't give them huge long deals.  Swift can't stay healthy and Hock is good but then disappears for stretches.  Jonah Jackson will need a contract but likely will take what Big V gives back when cut.  

After 2024 we have to resign ARSB and McNeil and figure out what we are doing with Goff. Sewell is signed through the 2025 season so can wait a year for him to resign and when he does, Taylor Decker will fall off.  We shouldn't be worrying at this point about this far out but don't want bad contracts affecting our ability to resign or sign guys.  So pushing more Goff money into that year doesn't make sense because the young talent will need to be re-signed then and I would rather take the hit next year.  

As for QB prospects, looking at 2024 is crazy because there isn't a transcendent talent like Lawrence at this point and the rankings will swap around like crazy by then.  Caleb Williams might be but I doubt we are picking #1 then so I am not planning on him.  I want to grab someone this year, be hopeful and then reassess  next offseason. Goff is playing good enough to not be replaced next year so lets focus on next year.  

If we have a year like we are having this year, does Campbell make it to 2024? Does Holmes? If the Lions are winning 6-7 games over the next two years, ownership would have a really hard time justifying that things are any different under this group. This team needs to take big steps forward in 2022, 2023 and beyond. 

The salary cap is going to take a big jump over the next couple years and be nearly $300M by the time we're having to re-sign some of these guys. The money doesn't worry me that much by the time JG would be off of the books. 

I have zero problems with drafting a guy in the mid-rounds of 2023 with the hope of landing a Jalen Hurts or a Dak Prescott but the expectation that we're getting a Davis Mills (or a Kellen Mond). If we have a pretty complete team, there's no reason that we can't trade for a veteran QB (Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones and Zach Wilson are all going to be UFA's in 2025) or trade up to get a rookie in the draft. 

[Sllim Pickens]

23 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

If we have a year like we are having this year, does Campbell make it to 2024? Does Holmes? If the Lions are winning 6-7 games over the next two years, ownership would have a really hard time justifying that things are any different under this group. This team needs to take big steps forward in 2022, 2023 and beyond. 

The salary cap is going to take a big jump over the next couple years and be nearly $300M by the time we're having to re-sign some of these guys. The money doesn't worry me that much by the time JG would be off of the books. 

I have zero problems with drafting a guy in the mid-rounds of 2023 with the hope of landing a Jalen Hurts or a Dak Prescott but the expectation that we're getting a Davis Mills (or a Kellen Mond). If we have a pretty complete team, there's no reason that we can't trade for a veteran QB (Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones and Zach Wilson are all going to be UFA's in 2025) or trade up to get a rookie in the draft. 

Good QBs don't switch rosters often without big contracts and picks.  I wouldn't expect any of last years QBs to be available unless they are the equivalent of Baker/Darnold.  Drafting one this year gives us two years to figure out if they are worth keeping, making a move for a QB, or resigning Goff.  My main point is we dont have to have a plan for 3 years from now because to your first point, DC and company have to win to still be here.  If we finish with 5-7 wins this year then DC and staff are on the hot seat.  If we do it again next year they may be gone, and probably should be.  And would mean that our draft picks didnt turn out which means either we drafted poorly or the coaches can't develop talent so again support to move on. If we can add 3/4 starters to our D next year with a similar offense, I wouldn't expect us to be this bad again next year but I said the same thing this year.   

[jrry32]

On 10/5/2022 at 9:54 AM, Karnage84 said:

He's been good enough that I do think we can try to build more of a team around him before plugging in the next guy. We've seen the 49ers make an investment in Lance, red-shirt him and then have him play awful. His injury was a plus for the 49ers to avoid a major QB controversy. We've seen Jordan Love do nothing. We've seen Justin Fields struggle.

With the way that Goff and the offense is playing now, I'd be much happier if we drafted high level defensive players in 2023, added to the OL, add a mid-round QB to develop (possibly as a backup) and then look at 2024 as the year we find his replacement. 

 

 

Wait and see on Goff. You're in the Good Goff cycle. See if he maintains a quality level of play for the entire year. He may. I've always figured he'd find consistency in his late 20s, as most pocket passers do. But I wouldn't bet on that quite yet. He needs to prove it more, as he has been a streaky QB throughout his career.