Randy Gregory out for a few weeks

[paul-mac]

Sounds like he might be out until after the London trip and the bye.

 

Time for Baron Browning and Nik Bonitto to show us what they can do. 
 

But thank god it’s not an ACL. 

 

[RaidersAreOne]

 

[Broncofan]

By having the meniscus trimmed - it’s possible he will only miss 2 games.   That’s the best case scenario.   
 

If he had opted for a full reconstruction the recovery timeline would have been 8-10 weeks.    The trade off is that early arthritis is almost a given with the trim alone.   But it’s often 5-10 years down the line, and why athletes often choose the trim for the early return.   

Edited October 3, 2022 by Broncofan

[paul-mac]

6 hours ago, Broncofan said:

By having the meniscus trimmed - it’s possible he will only miss 2 games.   That’s the best case scenario.   
 

If he had opted for a full reconstruction the recovery timeline would have been 8-10 weeks.    The trade off is that early arthritis is almost a given with the trim alone.   But it’s often 5-10 years down the line, and why athletes often choose the trim for the early return.   

So if we can assume he misses TNF this week and the MNF game against the Chargers, the schedule after that reads Jets (H), trip to London to play the Jaguars then the bye.

 

I would be sorely tempted to sit him out of at least the Jets game, and at that point do you take him to London or have him rest up for an extra three weeks? I think it’s quite possible we don’t see him before the bye even if the treatment goes well. 

[lomaxgrUK]

Rough. 

We are so painfully thin at pass rusher. I honestly think Bradley Chubb might be one of the most overrated players from Broncos fans in my entire time watching them. I see nothing better than an above average athlete and above average player. Doesn't impact the game anywhere near enough, especially in the run game for someone of his size.

Browning has not replicated his preseason form, and Bonitto (in his limited time) looked like a High School player out there size-wise.

Man, this season is going downhill in a hurry.

[Broncofan]

10 hours ago, paul-mac said:

So if we can assume he misses TNF this week and the MNF game against the Chargers, the schedule after that reads Jets (H), trip to London to play the Jaguars then the bye.

 

I would be sorely tempted to sit him out of at least the Jets game, and at that point do you take him to London or have him rest up for an extra three weeks? I think it’s quite possible we don’t see him before the bye even if the treatment goes well. 

Yeah the schedule def makes it more likely.   Miss 4 games but get 5 weeks recovery and likely full game shape.   Can’t argue it. 

Edited October 4, 2022 by Broncofan

[grizmo78]

On 10/4/2022 at 2:44 AM, lomaxgrUK said:

Rough. 

We are so painfully thin at pass rusher. I honestly think Bradley Chubb might be one of the most overrated players from Broncos fans in my entire time watching them. I see nothing better than an above average athlete and above average player. Doesn't impact the game anywhere near enough, especially in the run game for someone of his size.

Browning has not replicated his preseason form, and Bonitto (in his limited time) looked like a High School player out there size-wise.

Man, this season is going downhill in a hurry.

Tbh, I don't think Chubb is that overrated here. He's solid but not a star and I think most here see him that way. Dre'Mont Jones is similar imo and hopefully we don't pay for either of them to stay next year. Those are types of deals that are nice on a rookie contract but can easily become overpays in free agency. 

[AnAngryAmerican]

On 10/4/2022 at 1:44 AM, lomaxgrUK said:

Rough. 

We are so painfully thin at pass rusher. I honestly think Bradley Chubb might be one of the most overrated players from Broncos fans in my entire time watching them. I see nothing better than an above average athlete and above average player. Doesn't impact the game anywhere near enough, especially in the run game for someone of his size.

Browning has not replicated his preseason form, and Bonitto (in his limited time) looked like a High School player out there size-wise.

Man, this season is going downhill in a hurry.

I don't disagree. It sucks too because it's clearly a position on which George has placed a priority - Gregory was the big-ticket free agent signing, Bonito was the No. 1 pick in this draft and he took two in Browning and Cooper in last year's draft. And those were moves made with Chubb and Malik Reed on the roster and, last year, with Von as well. 

Elway was (justifiably IMO) criticized for failing to adequately address the seasons-long hole at RT but it wasn't due to a lack of effort - drafting Orlando Franklin (the last good RT we had) and the long list of singings who I know I won't remember all but Donald Stephenson, Ja'wan James were two, there were several others, and no one ever panned out. 

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

21 minutes ago, grizmo78 said:

Tbh, I don't think Chubb is that overrated here. He's solid but not a star and I think most here see him that way. Dre'Mont Jones is similar imo and hopefully we don't pay for either of them to stay next year. Those are types of deals that are nice on a rookie contract but can easily become overpays in free agency. 

When healthy he’s (Chubb) produced at the TJ Watt, Khalil Mack, Justin Houston mark (when looking at double team vs pass rush win rate and run stop rate) He’ll be paid in accordance. Now, one could argue that he doesn’t stay healthy enough to warrant that and/or they didn’t deserve what they got paid either. That’s where I fall. I won’t begrudge him chasing the money, just don’t want us to be the ones paying it. 

[lomaxgrUK]

54 minutes ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

When healthy he’s (Chubb) produced at the TJ Watt, Khalil Mack, Justin Houston mark (when looking at double team vs pass rush win rate and run stop rate)

Man, I've got to see these numbers. Chubb in the same breath as TJ Watt is stunning to me.

The other 2 I could see in that their best years are behind them.

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

13 minutes ago, lomaxgrUK said:

Man, I've got to see these numbers. Chubb in the same breath as TJ Watt is stunning to me.

The other 2 I could see in that their best years are behind them.

ESPN analytics! 
Seth Walder on twitter frequently posts an infographic showing it. The most recent one shows Chubb to be performing at his standard (typically around a 0.25 pass rush win rate) but at an increased double team rate now that Von is gone.  looking back the last couple of years that’s around where TJ Watt lives (0.25x0.125)

 

most recent:

A couple weeks ago when Watt was healthy: 

 

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, grizmo78 said:

Tbh, I don't think Chubb is that overrated here. He's solid but not a star and I think most here see him that way. Dre'Mont Jones is similar imo and hopefully we don't pay for either of them to stay next year. Those are types of deals that are nice on a rookie contract but can easily become overpays in free agency. 

 

3 hours ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

When healthy he’s (Chubb) produced at the TJ Watt, Khalil Mack, Justin Houston mark (when looking at double team vs pass rush win rate and run stop rate) He’ll be paid in accordance. Now, one could argue that he doesn’t stay healthy enough to warrant that and/or they didn’t deserve what they got paid either. That’s where I fall. I won’t begrudge him chasing the money, just don’t want us to be the ones paying it. 

 

2 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

Man, I've got to see these numbers. Chubb in the same breath as TJ Watt is stunning to me.

The other 2 I could see in that their best years are behind them.

Chubb's had an excellent 2022 - but it's been as Gregory's Robin.   He's still a strong asset in the run game, but as a pass rusher, he's not been close to those guys for his career - the same metrics used in 2022, bore this statement (on Chubb not being those guys) out in 2020-21.  The eye test can always be deceiving, but no, @lomaxgrUK you're not mistaken.

Even Walder himself would concur with your eye test from past years (he's the author of the graphs @broncos_fan _from _uk cited above - which are excellent).   Walder himself noted this at the end of 2021 - https://www.espn.com.au/fantasy/football/story/_/id/32954045/fantasy-football-quarterback-running-back-upgrades-downgrades-nfl-week-17 - in the article, he noted that Chubb's 2021 pass rush win rate was only 10% or the 0.1 mark.    He didn't show up in the final 2021 metrics stats, because of the fact he only played in 7 games, so he didn't qualify - but the very pedestrian pass rush win rates are referenced there. 

Quote

Without Von Miller, Denver's pass rush isn't frightening at all. That's even with Bradley Chubb, who has a pass rush win rate of just 10% at edge, back. In fact, Denver's Malik Reed ranks last among all qualifiers in pass rush win rate at edge with just a 6% win rate. The Broncos' biggest threat is Dre'Mont Jones, who ranks eighth in PRWR at defensive tackle at 12%.

All of this is setting up for a big rebound game from Herbert, who scuffled against the Texans in Week 16.

If you look where 10 percent lands you at the end of the year, just place him at 0.1....you see here.  And yeah, Malik Reed was BRUTAL (and TJ Watt is from another planet, along with Aaron Donald when you look at DT's, and Joey & Nick Bosa/Myles Garrett are just so good):

Now, this is also Chubb's 2nd year back from ACL - when he's got the full range of burst/sudden-ness.   So that could explain part of his success so far.  More importantly, with Gregory being the Batman, as the Robin, he's likely to remain successful, even if he can't sustain >20 percent win rates.    But to be clear, Chubb's 2020 pre-injury & 2021 #'s don't show up in the 20 percent win rate, they're closer to 10%.    His run support, though, is very clearly good.  

I'm definitely of the same mind that at 20M+, I don't think we should pay him either.   He's a good player, and you need guys like him to help make a D hum.   But he's likely going to command top-of-market rates, when he's not that top-of-market guy.   

Edited October 5, 2022 by Broncofan

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

I would argue that given Chubb has been doubled at nearly 3x the clip Gregory has been that Gregory is the robin to Chubb’s Batman. Opposing offenses are certainly treating him as such.
 

like I said in my first response every time Chubb has been fully healthy (this season and his rookie season) he’s been in that TJ Watt range. The issue is can he stay healthy