Broncofan Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 (edited) Given no one has started it, from the DEN Forum, I'll start with the breakdown for TNF's game, I'm assuming that we are going to be missing Gregory & Javonte (EDIT: Now confirmed), and IND is missing J-Taylor & Shaq Leonard (more on J-Taylor likely missing Week 5 TNF next post). Some important Q marks for us otherwise... IND ON O -It's eye opening how badly the IND OL is struggling. New LT Matt Pryor and RG Danny Pinter have been bad. But TBH so has C Ryan Kelly. They've failed to pass protect Matt Ryan and haven't opened up any lanes for Jonathan Taylor, who's now hurt. This is massive area for the pass rush to exploit - but it only works if we stop the run. G Quinton Nelson is still an elite player (and yes, passing on him for Chubb, we'd probably do it over 10x/10x, even though Chubb's been better this year for sure). -Matt Ryan's decline phase is real. He sees ghosts with pressure. Again, why stopping the run and setting up 2nd and long matters so much. -Michael Pittman is a true alpha WR1 talent, but Ryan is holding him back in a big way. The X factors for our weak areas - RB Nyheim Hines is an absolute pass catching mismatch, while Mo-Alie Cox is an older but far more refined version of what ppl were hoping for with Albert O - he gets his blocks, and he's a massive matchup nightmare with both safeties and LB's. I expect extra targets will go their way if PS2 locks up Pittman. Alec Pierce is a promising rookie, but if he's the guy who beats you, just tip your cap and move on. -Frank Reich's play-calling has been an issue for 2+ seasons now, and it's not improved. He found ways to limit Carson Wentz's mistakes for the first 12-13 games last year, but he's looked pretty lost in game adjustments and just outright bad play sequencing. DEN ON O -Shaq Leonard in protocol is a massive break for us. The heart and soul of their D, and an absolute force in coverage and limiting RB's getting into the 2nd level. -The other disruptor is Deforest Buckner who was only on the field for 19 plays. Guy who takes up 2 guys and can still win in the run, and can get massive inside push on passing downs. His presence then allows Kwitty Paye and Yannick Ngakoue to get outside EDGE pressure. Given how bad our pass pro with both T's have been (we really need Billy Turner back in a big way), it's a problem if we have inside pressure too. In that respect, getting Quinn Meinerz to play tandem G with Dalton Risner would help so much - Graham Glasgow's decline phase is real. Meinerz at G and Turner at RT would help address this so much. -The absence of Shaq Leonard and Buckner only 19 plays is a big reason why TEN ran so well yesterday. They're normally stout in run D. That's likely the case with our downgrade in our RB situation. Mike Boone is JAG...no matter what Hackett thought (incorrectly) - using him for 4 straight runs to start the 2H with Javonte Williams out on the 1st drive, and then dive on 1st at the 50, then play-action with Wilson back to LOS, was asinine (which no one bought easiest 9-yard sack you'll ever see, killed both opening drives in 3Q - and led to 3 drives with only 7 net yards and 2 3-and-outs and 1 5-and-out - and then the LV run O took over for good). I don't expect we should bank on any success (we can try, but can't repeat that level of incompetent 2H play-calling). -On the secondary, without a great pass rush, the secondary can be beat. CB Kenny Moore has been great until this year, but hasn't been nearly as good. CB Stephon Gilmore is still solid, but not a shutdown CB. And CB Brandon Facyson is an area to exploit. The DEN WR's success vs. LV in the 1H was mind boggling that Hackett didn't go there in the 3Q and 1st drive 4Q (4 drives total - 17 yards total). With Javonte Williams out, this now becomes a pass-first O, especially against a stout run D (assuming Buckner plays) the Colts have. OTHER INTANGIBLES -As we saw in the LV game, TO's are key. MG3's fumble-6 cost us 6 pts, but also took away at least 3 pts. 9 pt swing at minimum. Who wins the TO battle matters a ton. -ST's we've actually been much better with Waitman being excellent in punting placement and net Week 3-4, and our return game is a threat with Montrell Washington. IND is traditionally very good here, but their K situation is less stable. -Reich's really underwhelmed in game management and in-game adjustments and play-calling - but Nathaniel Hackett still looks overmatched. His game management has improved to no mistakes Week 4 (and only a couple of small play sequences in Week 3 - the actual play-calling itself and adjustments at halftime, though - still MASSIVE in how bad it's been). KEYS TO DEN VICTORY On D -Stop the run, then exploit OL issues in pass pro -PS2 on Pittman, give help to Mo-Alie Cox with safety, not a LB, and keep Nyheim Hines accounted for in pass game. HATE the off coverage, the TE & RB's will just bleed us to death. Be aggressive, it forces Matt Ryan where he's least comfortable. On O -Lean on Russell Wilson now. With no Javonte Williams, it's the pass game vs. IND's stout run D. -Cut down on penalties. OL has to play better. Meinerz/Turner back at G / RT would help a TON. INTANGIBLES. -Be TO neutral or win here. That simple -No stupidity like unnecessary penalties, etc. Neither team is good enough right now to survive that. -Hackett, coach to freaking win the game. Going run game vs. LV to start 3Q down 3 and ball in great field position 2x was so gutless. Be bold. Don't wither in the limelight. It's going to be a closer game for sure - just sucks we won't see Shaq Leonard on IND D, and likely not Randy Gregory on DEN D. While on O, instead of Jonathan Taylor & Javonte Williams as lead backs...it's Nyheim Hines and MG3. Not what the NFL & TV guys thought was coming in, I'm sure. Edited October 4, 2022 by Broncofan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 4, 2022 Author Share Posted October 4, 2022 As for JT, even though the MRI says there's no obvious structural damage (making it more like a low ankle sprain than a HAS), it's still likely JT misses the game with a short week. The obvious evidence - if JT doesn't practice, then he's likely out. Keep in mind he never missed a single practice in college or the NFL until last week. A pretty good breakdown by Morse here (who's probably the 2nd or 3rd most recognized name behind Chao - and his analysis is usually very sound. I have no reason but to trust him on this, based on past experience with his calls). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFlaccoSeagulls Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 Denver's defense is going to decimate the Colts' offense but Nathaniel Hackett is going to decimate any chances of this being a blowout Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wyld Stallyns Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 Colts will be without: Shaq Leonard, S Julian Blackmon, DE/DT Tyquan Lewis and likely Jonathan Taylor. @Broncofan you also can add RT Braden to the list of OL playing badly. Nelson is the only one who’s been good. His PFF grade is slightly down from where it was last year while the rest are horrid. Matt Ryan also has become fumble prone this year 9 fumbles in 4 games losing 3 of them 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notthatbluestuff Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 8 hours ago, Wyld Stallyns said: Colts will be without: Shaq Leonard, S Julian Blackmon, DE/DT Tyquan Lewis and likely Jonathan Taylor. @Broncofan you also can add RT Braden to the list of OL playing badly. Nelson is the only one who’s been good. His PFF grade is slightly down from where it was last year while the rest are horrid. Matt Ryan also has become fumble prone this year 9 fumbles in 4 games losing 3 of them These are the kind of games the Colts randomly win. It's the divisional games where we're favored that I'm more worried about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackstar12 Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 (edited) First team to score 17 probably wins both lol. Edited October 4, 2022 by Blackstar12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KhanYouDigIt Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 I don’t see the Colts scoring 10 points in this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FinSting Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 Wow just noticed the Broncos are playing FOUR of their first six games in primetime. My Broncos friend on the West Coast is getting sick of staying up late to watch his team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefer Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, FinSting said: Wow just noticed the Broncos are playing FOUR of their first six games in primetime. My Broncos friend on the West Coast is getting sick of staying up late to watch his team. They’ve been pretty terrible in almost all of them, I’m getting sick of watching them too😂 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackstar12 Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 10 minutes ago, Chiefer said: They’ve been pretty terrible in almost all of them, I’m getting sick of watching them too😂 Let’s ride!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatJaxxenGuy Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 Man that’s a dusty matchup. Just a couple QB retirement homes Duking it out 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 Everything except number 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackstar12 Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 Just noticed it should be 1-2-1 not 1-3 for the Colts lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 4, 2022 Author Share Posted October 4, 2022 29 minutes ago, Blackstar12 said: Just noticed it should be 1-2-1 not 1-3 for the Colts lol. Felt like a L, but noted, corrected lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sportcourt7 Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 3 hours ago, FinSting said: Wow just noticed the Broncos are playing FOUR of their first six games in primetime. My Broncos friend on the West Coast is getting sick of staying up late to watch his team. How late does your friend have to stay up? Is 8:30pm too late for him? 😄 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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