Week 5: MIA Dolphins vs NY Jets

[Bobby816]

Love the way we finished this last week. And I think that momentum for us will be huge. No Tua for MIA, so this game is winnable now. Tye strength of MIA is now Hill and Waddle. But we have Sauce and Reed. So I think we can hang in this one. I’m not worried about MIA running game. I’d like to see us pin our ears back and get after Teddy.

 

On offense I think we just need to have balanced attack. MIA is a well rounded defense with pretty much no weakness. So our guys just have to win battles. I feel like Moore and/or Wilson are about to break a big play. Maybe it’s this week. I’d like to see us use that quick passing game and get the ball in there hands with space. They’re electric with the ball in their hands. OT we still aren’t sure about who will be out there. But if they can just play a tad better than last week… I think that’s enough for us to make plays.

 

Prediction

MIA: 20

NYJ: 23

[NJerseypaint]

It's not Sauce and Reed I'm worried about; it's our safeties letting them out the back that gets me but thankfully it's Teddy B throwing so the deep threat is less of an actual threat.

Dolphins defense is good though. It's gonna be a tough day for Zach again if we don't fix that OL but I'd love for him to play a mistake free game against a tough divisional opponent.

[xrade]

Teddy will pick us apart with the short quick passing game.  We need the LB's to play disciplined zone and at least one S in the box.

[Rockice_8]

Hopefully a week of practice with the make sift OL AVT at LT and Herbig at RG will help.  I think we'll see a lot of two TE and RB's help chipping for whoever is at RT.  I expect a low scoring game with us getting edged out late.  Even with Teddy this is a good test for our defense who has been up and down.  Curious to see how Sauce and Reed who are arguably the best CB duo in the NFL after 4 weeks fair against the best WR duo in the NFL.  Gonna be fun.

I do think our WR's despite having to go against Howard should have success.  Moore did roast Howard last year and even if Jones plays he's coming off IR.  If we keep Zack upright we'll be in the game.   

[jetfuel34]

Teddy is not that good guys. He will turn the ball over at least twice. He has a weak arm so Hill and Waddle going deep is not a threat in my eyes. If Teddy throws it deep the CB and S have plenty of time to recover. The running game is junk. I have no idea why people think Chase Edmonds is a starting RB. I think the Jets pull out a win here and I think this is the first time the jets come out with some good points and have a commanding lead throught the game. Wilson will throw his 1 or 2 picks to even it out with Teddy. 

Hall takes more carries and runs the jets to the finish. Hall ends uo with 100 plus yards rushing and a TD.

Jets 27

Miami 14

[NYJets4716]

We are way overdue for a divisional win, can't keep losing to all these teams. Time to win a AFC East matchup. 

[ekill08x]

I just think Miami is better than we are no matter who is playing QB. Their defense is miles better than what the numbers say. They limited the best offense in football and even though the Ravens had success they got the stops when they needed. Before the Tua injury the Bengals were struggling too. We have to have a good gameplan for the blitz. I am concerned with Zach getting rid of the ball quick, its where it seems like he is the most inaccurate even though statistically his turnovers are when he has time (why the kid is hard to get a read on still). We need better rhythm and play calling from MLF this week, despite the win he was pretty downright horrible against Pitt. 

Defensively we have to also get more creative. If we are dead set on rushing 4, I want to see a lot of stunts up front since they run a ZBS. This is actually a week that cover 3 or cover 2 should really help slow down their desire to have big plays. What concerns me is McDaniels is very familiar with this defense and if we simply run the SOS we do every single week, this wont be a close game. McDaniels is twice the Xs and Os guy that Ulbrich is and unless Saleh and him starting going against the grain it could be a frustrating week. 

Overall I do think we will be fired up for this game. I expect MetLife to be loud and even though it is easily the worst stadium in the NFL and never a home field advantage, the crowd needs to be into it and we need to give them something on the field to do so. Last week was a nice win but it was against a pretty bad opponent. We can't turn the ball over multiple times or leave points on the field or we'll be out of the game by the 3rd quarter. We are getting closer, but I don't think we are playing good enough football yet to beat a team that is still ahead of us.

Dolphins 27

Jets 16

[KingOfNewYork]

Offensively- Miami will likely blitz a ton to pressure our line and Zach. MLF has shown he'll max pro/chip a lot but receivers have to win 1v1 and Zach has to get the ball out. We're against running screens, so that won't slow down the blitz, unfortunately. Pittsburgh did a ton of run blitzing we beat with the PA/RPO, Miami is better on the backend. We need to own them on the ground or make them pay with the quick passing game to move the ball effectively. Possible but difficult. 

Defensively- Our Linebackers will have to take away the underneath stuff so we can protect over the top. Even though Teddy doesn't have an elite arm he can still make those throws given the time and Hill/Waddle run past anyone. Our Safeties haven't been good(week 4 be damned) so we have to be cautious. Their run game isn't great but our run D sucks. Key will be the Corners sticking to their WRs, the Linebackers taking away the 5-yard pick ups, and the DL causing Teddy to panic. 

Prediction- Jets 20, Dolphins 13

[Rockice_8]

38 minutes ago, KingOfNewYork said:

Offensively- Miami will likely blitz a ton to pressure our line and Zach. MLF has shown he'll max pro/chip a lot but receivers have to win 1v1 and Zach has to get the ball out. We're against running screens, so that won't slow down the blitz, unfortunately. Pittsburgh did a ton of run blitzing we beat with the PA/RPO, Miami is better on the backend. We need to own them on the ground or make them pay with the quick passing game to move the ball effectively. Possible but difficult. 

Defensively- Our Linebackers will have to take away the underneath stuff so we can protect over the top. Even though Teddy doesn't have an elite arm he can still make those throws given the time and Hill/Waddle run past anyone. Our Safeties haven't been good(week 4 be damned) so we have to be cautious. Their run game isn't great but our run D sucks. Key will be the Corners sticking to their WRs, the Linebackers taking away the 5-yard pick ups, and the DL causing Teddy to panic. 

Prediction- Jets 20, Dolphins 13

I mean we are just outside the top 5 in YPC and top 10 in yards per game so not really sure that is accurate.  Sure we struggled bad with CLE but so does everyone else.  Our 3rd down defense and red zone defense is really the biggest issue right now.  If those two things got cleaned up we likely would be much better on defense.  The LBs and safeties are coming off a good game (our clear weakness on D) so lets hope it's more so getting into a comfort zone then just a bad opponent. 

I think they're pass defense struggles are real.  Howard is still great but you can avoid him most of the time and opposite him is below average.  I think we are better suited for attacking them through the air then on the ground but we'll need to stay balanced or at least utilize the screen game more.  

I think we get edged out by 3-4 points but it should be a good game since we match up well with what they want to do.

[Sandwhich2]

Miami plays a lot of tight man coverage and has the players to matchup well with the Jets receivers. Zach's gonna have to get rid of the ball faster. They also blitz a lot and are faster than the Steelers on defense so he's not going to be able to get away with backing out of the pocket like he did last week. 

This will be a much bigger test and a better sign of where he is in my opinion. I think if they lean on the running game they could win another ugly one here but it would not surprise me if the offense struggles hard here and drops the game regardless of how well the defense plays.

I think the line held up okay last week but the passing concepts either took too long to develop or Zach wasn't trusting it early. Needs to let it rip. Get Garrett going in the slot and get Moore on some drags and crossers. Use their speed.

[Bobby816]

1 minute ago, Sandwhich2 said:

Miami plays a lot of tight man coverage and has the players to matchup well with the Jets receivers. Zach's gonna have to get rid of the ball faster. They also blitz a lot and are faster than the Steelers on defense so he's not going to be able to get away with backing out of the pocket like he did last week. 

This will be a much bigger test and a better sign of where he is in my opinion. I think if they lean on the running game they could win another ugly one here but it would not surprise me if the offense struggles hard here and drops the game regardless of how well the defense plays.

I think the line held up okay last week but the passing concepts either took too long to develop or Zach wasn't trusting it early. Needs to let it rip. Get Garrett going in the slot and get Moore on some drags and crossers. Use their speed.

They’re CBs are actually better physically than they are against twitchy WRs. Davis might be locked down by them… but Moore, Wilson and Berrios I think can win against their CBs 

[Sandwhich2]

7 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

They’re CBs are actually better physically than they are against twitchy WRs. Davis might be locked down by them… but Moore, Wilson and Berrios I think can win against their CBs 

I think I agree from the bit I know about their defense. If they're going to stay in man all game which they probably will since Zach has been very poor against it, then their only shot really is to make those guys run across the field with them and just beat them in their routes. Jets couldn't do that last year, but you'd hope Moore's progression and Wilson coming on will help.

[KingOfNewYork]

46 minutes ago, Rockice_8 said:

I mean we are just outside the top 5 in YPC and top 10 in yards per game so not really sure that is accurate.  Sure we struggled bad with CLE but so does everyone else.  Our 3rd down defense and red zone defense is really the biggest issue right now.  If those two things got cleaned up we likely would be much better on defense.  The LBs and safeties are coming off a good game (our clear weakness on D) so lets hope it's more so getting into a comfort zone then just a bad opponent. 

I think they're pass defense struggles are real.  Howard is still great but you can avoid him most of the time and opposite him is below average.  I think we are better suited for attacking them through the air then on the ground but we'll need to stay balanced or at least utilize the screen game more.  

I think we get edged out by 3-4 points but it should be a good game since we match up well with what they want to do.

Can't just look at raw numbers, Flacco was a top 3 passer in the league through 3 weeks. We boxed the Ravens run game by loading the box but lost because we got burned a couple of times deep. Against the Dolphins we have two choices, two high to contain their explosive wide receivers forcing the Dolphins to take underneath passes and run the ball or load the box to make sure they can get traction on the ground. With their biggest threat being the receivers I think Saleh and Ulbrich emphasize that and live with the results on the ground especially early but we've seen this team get ran on easily statistics be damned. 

Btw Jets are 4th in passing statistically but you wouldn't call us a great team through the air. Just pointing out how the film shows things the stats do not. 

[Rockice_8]

1 hour ago, KingOfNewYork said:

Can't just look at raw numbers, Flacco was a top 3 passer in the league through 3 weeks. We boxed the Ravens run game by loading the box but lost because we got burned a couple of times deep. Against the Dolphins we have two choices, two high to contain their explosive wide receivers forcing the Dolphins to take underneath passes and run the ball or load the box to make sure they can get traction on the ground. With their biggest threat being the receivers I think Saleh and Ulbrich emphasize that and live with the results on the ground especially early but we've seen this team get ran on easily statistics be damned. 

Btw Jets are 4th in passing statistically but you wouldn't call us a great team through the air. Just pointing out how the film shows things the stats do not. 

YPC is a pretty good indicator though.  Total yardage yes I'll agree can be skewed.  I just don't see how you can be top 5 in YPC and be awful was my point.  Are we top 5 run defense probably not be I think we are respectable.  I like DVOA the best and we are in the low 20's both offensively and defensively which sounds about right.  A slight bump from each unit feeding off of each other and they could be middle of the pack in both which I think we would all be happy with. 

[ekill08x]

25 minutes ago, Rockice_8 said:

YPC is a pretty good indicator though.  Total yardage yes I'll agree can be skewed.  I just don't see how you can be top 5 in YPC and be awful was my point.  Are we top 5 run defense probably not be I think we are respectable.  I like DVOA the best and we are in the low 20's both offensively and defensively which sounds about right.  A slight bump from each unit feeding off of each other and they could be middle of the pack in both which I think we would all be happy with. 

DVOA is 100x better. Total O/D has us top 10 in each...let's be real lol. I am glad we are 2-2 and have looked like the arrow is pointing in the right direction, but we are still far from good.