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State of the Steelers


warfelg

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8 hours ago, jebrick said:

He is the Steeler's best run defender by far and still one of their top Dlinemen.  Injuries is what would worry me with older players

Fast forward to 2025 and Cam likely remains a stout defender, but how often will he be on the field to justify giving him ‘top 5’ money or anything close to that? Right now and depending on the QB situation, I therefore still very much see DL as the biggest 2025 draft need, likely followed by WR and RB.  This year could be the Steeler Swan Song for OT Moore, DT Heyward, and RB Harris. Younger alternatives could abound.

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35 minutes ago, rlon said:

Fast forward to 2025 and Cam likely remains a stout defender, but how often will he be on the field to justify giving him ‘top 5’ money or anything close to that? Right now and depending on the QB situation, I therefore still very much see DL as the biggest 2025 draft need, likely followed by WR and RB.  This year could be the Steeler Swan Song for OT Moore, DT Heyward, and RB Harris. Younger alternatives could abound.

the DL rotation is a problem. You pay a player top 5, but he is part time? 

IF the smith offence can own TOP, then Heyward can be  out there 90% of the time. In the offence of the last 5 years, TOP wasn't good and the defence had too much pressure on it. 

Our better offence will also make the defence better.  Unless the coaches still believe in the rotation as it was used  and continue with that.  The 2nd DL is the weakness of the team that could be the deciding factor in close games. 

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11 minutes ago, jebrick said:

This is always the problem with C$3 contracts.  The most money for diminished returns

This is a true, and I am not arguing against the thought in any way, but it does kinda make up for how severely underpaid rookie contracts are in a way. 

I was just curious: Byron Murphy was the first interior DL guy taken this year in the first. He averages $4M, which puts him the 70's in terms of payment rank at the position. If he plays like a top 30 guy he out plays his contract by 3x. 

I often attribute someone's pay to the "room" rather than the individual. I would have gladly traded for a paid Sneed $20M+ knowing we would have our top two starting CB's averaging $11-12M between he and Porter. 

With Benton at $1.8M/per average and, likely, a top draft pick next season who is similar to Murphy, I think Cam is worth the investment even if it's deemed an overpay per his production late in it. 

I'm happy to play mental gymnastics with NFL contracts because none of them make sense IMO, and I think that's what the real life teams do anyway. As long as they can answer three things, I am pretty happy: 1) do you want the player? 2) can you afford the player to your cap? 3) can you do everything you need for your roster with that players new cap hit? I think the answer is still yes to all of those, especially with our giant cap flexibility moving forward. 

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This was done as paying rookies way too much based on nothing was too prohibitive.  The $C2 contacts should be high for the best players.  I have no problem with chase and Jefferson getting paid.  It is always a balancing act with the 3rd contracts.  Cowher used to never give them out nor Belichick.  I think AR2 like the family part of running the team so they want to reward fan favorites.  Fine, they just have to do it smartly.  Give Cam 3 year but with at least 1 voidable years if not 2.  Pay him but give the Steelers a friendly out.

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2 hours ago, AFF said:

Pay up for younger talent…not 35 year old DL who are on the final lap of their career.

In general, I agree with you, but I do make an exception for guys that are still at the top of their class (er, their position group). 

In 2022 he was still top 5 in the league on the interior. You can make a really, really strong case that Cam should have been All-Pro and had a better season than everyone not names Chris Jones. That would have been his 4th straight AP node and 5th in 6 years. 

Understanding that injuries wrecked last year for him and that it's the biggest fear moving forward with his age, I still think -- for him -- a step or 2 back is a top 20 player through the next year or 2. I'd willingly pay for that. 

IMO, if Benton takes another step and they draft a Rd1/Rd2 high end replacement, we can get more than enough run out of another Cam deal. I see it being a 2 year extension with one year of guarantees paid across 3 seasons. 

Honestly, though, I am not sure we have a choice. The DL room is incredibly thin as is and it wasn't added to this season on the top line. The position group that could have picked up the slack for a down DL next season was also left void in 2025 when they decided one corner on roster is enough.

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1 hour ago, Dcash4 said:

In general, I agree with you, but I do make an exception for guys that are still at the top of their class (er, their position group). 

In 2022 he was still top 5 in the league on the interior. You can make a really, really strong case that Cam should have been All-Pro and had a better season than everyone not names Chris Jones. That would have been his 4th straight AP node and 5th in 6 years. 

Understanding that injuries wrecked last year for him and that it's the biggest fear moving forward with his age, I still think -- for him -- a step or 2 back is a top 20 player through the next year or 2. I'd willingly pay for that. 

IMO, if Benton takes another step and they draft a Rd1/Rd2 high end replacement, we can get more than enough run out of another Cam deal. I see it being a 2 year extension with one year of guarantees paid across 3 seasons. 

Honestly, though, I am not sure we have a choice. The DL room is incredibly thin as is and it wasn't added to this season on the top line. The position group that could have picked up the slack for a down DL next season was also left void in 2025 when they decided one corner on roster is enough.

If you wanna tell me An extension would have no guaranteed $$$ in his age 36 years or longer than I’m ok with it…but we both know that isn’t happening.

An extension might decrease his cap hit this year but they’re already fine cap wise…then your probably looking at least at 20+ mill cap hits in 25-26 over his age 36 and age 37 seasons.

Not exactly the perfect comparison but Christian Wilkins contract with the Raiders….cap hits of $10 mill/$33//$30/$30…plus 1 void year.

Id rather have Wilkins at $30 mill in his age 31 season rather than Heyward at say $23 mill his age 37 season.

 

 

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21 minutes ago, AFF said:

If you wanna tell me An extension would have no guaranteed $$$ in his age 36 years or longer than I’m ok with it…but we both know that isn’t happening.

An extension might decrease his cap hit this year but they’re already fine cap wise…then your probably looking at least at 20+ mill cap hits in 25-26 over his age 36 and age 37 seasons.

Not exactly the perfect comparison but Christian Wilkins contract with the Raiders….cap hits of $10 mill/$33//$30/$30…plus 1 void year.

Id rather have Wilkins at $30 mill in his age 31 season rather than Heyward at say $23 mill his age 37 season.

 

 

I don’t see why we can’t have both. Larry O is done after this year, we’ll have a rookie, Benton won’t be expensive yet, we’ll probably have a slightly cheaper than normal Fields or a rookie contract QB. I don’t think signing Cam will really hinder us in the future. Plus the cap is all made up anyway. I try not to spend a lot of time thinking about it, so I may be wrong on this. 

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8 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said:

I don’t see why we can’t have both. Larry O is done after this year, we’ll have a rookie, Benton won’t be expensive yet, we’ll probably have a slightly cheaper than normal Fields or a rookie contract QB. I don’t think signing Cam will really hinder us in the future. Plus the cap is all made up anyway. I try not to spend a lot of time thinking about it, so I may be wrong on this. 

Absolutely pay up for upper tier players…I’d rather pay up for in their prime or going into their prime players, not ones on the last leg of their career that’s all.

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52 minutes ago, AFF said:

If you wanna tell me An extension would have no guaranteed $$$ in his age 36 years or longer than I’m ok with it…but we both know that isn’t happening.

Yeah, I agree that isn't happening, but I think you can lessen the cap cost of it with the extra space we have now. If they aren't landing a WR right now, I'd rather spend more on Cam in 2024. 

Playing with numbers here: 2 year, $50M extension, $25M guarantee, $12M signing bonus

2024: New Cap hit $26.4 (+$4M)
2025: Base $21M + $4M bonus = $25M hit (Guaranteed)
2026: Base $21M + $4M bonus = $25M hit (non guarantee: $4M in dead, $21 in savings)

I don't know that he could fight father time and be more worth the $25M cap hit than the $21M in savings, but I do think he plays well enough in 2025 to warrant the 1 year. Matched with Benton's ascension (hopeful), a draft pick (hopeful), and a Larry O cut (terrible extension, saves us $7M) makes it palatable for me. 

I usually feel pretty confident about contracts, but I have no clue what his will look like. No one his age signing top of market deals. Also very few guys that good at his age to sign to deals. You could convince me he signs anywhere from $18M to $28M. 

If they just let him play out his contract I would be okay with that too. But I think he will still land in the top 30 of DL in the league through next year, if he can avoid injuries. If he does, it's worth it IMO. 

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2024: New Cap hit $26.4 (+$4M)
2025: Base $21M + $4M bonus = $25M hit (Guaranteed)
2026: Base $21M + $4M bonus = $25M hit (non guarantee: $4M in dead, $21 in savings)vvvvvvvvv

 

Jesus no…why would we give him an increase cap wise this year, doesn’t make sense to me. To do that is to say he’s underpaid now and to give up on getting some serious veteran WR talent in here. Paycut or jump, Cam….we need to let go of the recent past. Move on and he can tag along if he takes a cut. If not, go play for the Jets. Call him on it…business.

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