Heinicke to be the Starter Moving Forward

[turtle28]

@Scott Land

 

Edited December 6, 2022 by turtle28

[Umbaugh21]

3 hours ago, e16bball said:

He made that throw on an October day where it was 65+ degrees out and very little wind. It’s a completely different concept to ask him to make throws like that in windy, sub-freezing conditions. He doesn’t have the arm for it, and he can’t do it — as we see routinely any time he plays in tough weather. 

I’m really not sure why we’re even discussing deep passing here. It’s so obvious that Wentz is superior in this area that it seems like kind of a waste of time. Aside from just watching them throw the ball, Wentz had 9 completions of 30 or more yards in 6 starts (one of which featured a broken finger for much of it). Heinicke has 5 in 7 starts, one of which was the blind heave to Terry and one of which was the desperate hurl into triple coverage to Samuel. 

It’s entirely possible to still advocate for Heinicke while conceding that he’s much less capable down the field than Wentz is. He can still be the best choice despite that. But there’s really no sense in pretending they’re mostly comparable in that aspect — they aren’t. 

I never said that Heinicke is better at the deep ball. I just said that the notion that Heinicke absolutely "can't" throw the deep ball is not true. 
I continue to say that the reason Heinicke is the better fit for us is that he does not take sacks as much and he actually sees the open receiver. 

Edited December 6, 2022 by Umbaugh21

[MKnight82]

The biggest difference between Heinicke vs Wentz is Heinicke keeps our offense on the field.  We have dominated TOP since he took over.

[Scott Land]

14 hours ago, lavar703 said:

So is Wentz the reason we lost the titans game? 

I mean you could argue that. That pick was pathetic, as was the play calling when we got down to the 2 yard line. Running plays that receivers don't even get to the end zone from the 2 yard line. There's a difference between the 2 games though. Heinicke threw for 149 yards against the Vikings and Wentz threw for 359 yards and against the Titans. 

[Scott Land]

13 hours ago, turtle28 said:

@Scott Land

This doesn't surprise me. He has been good late in games, which is why he is still starting. 

[lavar703]

42 minutes ago, Scott Land said:

I mean you could argue that. That pick was pathetic, as was the play calling when we got down to the 2 yard line. Running plays that receivers don't even get to the end zone from the 2 yard line. There's a difference between the 2 games though. Heinicke threw for 149 yards against the Vikings and Wentz threw for 359 yards and against the Titans. 

So throwing for a lot of yards and losing is better than not throwing for a lot of yards and losing? Even if both losses were very similar? So its more Heinicke's fault than it was Wentz because Wentz threw for more yards? 

[Scott Land]

7 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

So throwing for a lot of yards and losing is better than not throwing for a lot of yards and losing? Even if both losses were very similar? So its more Heinicke's fault than it was Wentz because Wentz threw for more yards? 

Well usually throwing for more yards as a quarterback is better than throwing for less yards as a quarterback no? You know like for the position that throws the ball? And by a difference of 210 yards?

[lavar703]

31 minutes ago, Scott Land said:

Well usually throwing for more yards as a quarterback is better than throwing for less yards as a quarterback no? You know like for the position that throws the ball? And by a difference of 210 yards?

Unless I'm mistaken no passing leader has ever won a Super Bowl. So there's no correlation between passing yardage and winning. 

[Scott Land]

6 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

Unless I'm mistaken no passing leader has ever won a Super Bowl. So there's no correlation between passing yardage and winning. 

Hahahah alright. Tell that to Patrick Mahomes' 59-16 record.

[turtle28]

1 minute ago, Scott Land said:

Hahahah alright. Tell that to Patrick Mahomes' 59-16 record.

I think @lavar703 meant in that season. The year the Chiefs won the Super Bowl, Mahomes only threw for 4031 yards.

[Scott Land]

25 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

I think @lavar703 meant in that season. The year the Chiefs won the Super Bowl, Mahomes only threw for 4031 yards.

"There's no correlation between passing yardage and winning." Even if that's the one season he's talking about, his passing yards and winning percentage would disagree for his career.

Edited December 6, 2022 by Scott Land

[turtle28]

3 hours ago, Scott Land said:

"There's no correlation between passing yardage and winning." Even if that's the one season he's talking about, his passing yards and winning percentage would disagree for his career.

It’s usually touchdowns more-so than yards which wins games.
 

I take you to the Redskins under Kirk when we were smack dab .500 bc we couldn’t score enough TDs, but we always got a ton of yards.

[e16bball]

On 12/5/2022 at 8:51 PM, turtle28 said:

@Scott Land

The “air yards” argument he makes is a very concerning one…because not one stat on that page refers to Air Yards in any way, shape, or form. 

He’s confusing the names for NFL Next Gen’s air yards stats (which are things like IAY and CAY) with Football-Reference’s adjusted yards per attempt stats (which are things like NY/A and ANY/A). 

In the end, it’s okay, because the argument he’s making does turn out to be true, even if he doesn’t understand why. Heinicke’s air yard stats are all higher than Wentz’s, and I think we’ve all been able to see that in action. Heinicke is more willing to throw the ball down the field, and he’s not eating all these sacks when he holds onto the ball to do so. 
 

For me, it’s not a question of whether Week 7-13 Heinicke was better than Week 1-6 Wentz — I think he definitely was.

The question, to me, is whether Week 7-13 Heinicke — and more importantly still, Week 15-18 Heinicke — is good enough for us to win and get where we’re trying to go. So it’s not as much about measuring where they were, it’s about trying to project which one of these guys is going to be the better player with the season on the line. 

At the end of it, Heinicke is a winner and Wentz is a loser, and pretty much everyone knows it. So you have to stick with him, I think. But I’d absolutely be lying to you if I said there’s not a huge part of me that thinks the only chance we have to matter in the next month-plus is if we could have an improved Wentz with better OL play and better command of the offense after weeks to learn on the sidelines. Because I don’t think Heinicke is good enough. 

[turtle28]

1 hour ago, e16bball said:

At the end of it, Heinicke is a winner and Wentz is a loser, and pretty much everyone knows it. So you have to stick with him, I think. But I’d absolutely be lying to you if I said there’s not a huge part of me that thinks the only chance we have to matter in the next month-plus is if we could have an improved Wentz with better OL play and better command of the offense after weeks to learn on the sidelines. Because I don’t think Heinicke is good enough. 

I hear you & thanks for explaining those stats bc I didn’t realize that either. Frankly, I don’t even get that deep into analytics bc it makes me go crazy when I try to figure out what someone’s trying to tell me in analytics when I know what I see on the field.

I am definitely in the camp of I wish Carson had showed more consistency & our OL earlier in the year. The fact that it’s pretty clear Taylor is making the OL look better than it looked the first 6 games & we just lost Larsen again definitely makes me believe that Heinicke has to be the guy.

If Wentz were to ever play again this year, I personally don’t think Wentz is going to be too much better than he was the first 6 weeks. Sure he got to sit & watch from from the sidelines, maybe absorb some more of the offense & see how Taylor ran the O. But, Wentz hasn’t played since Oct. 13th, almost 2 months ago now. He would be super rusty and I don’t see his pocket presence being better - that’s been an issue his whole career - or accuracy bc he wouldn’t have played & he’s coming off a broken finger.

[lavar703]

3 hours ago, e16bball said:

The “air yards” argument he makes is a very concerning one…because not one stat on that page refers to Air Yards in any way, shape, or form. 

He’s confusing the names for NFL Next Gen’s air yards stats (which are things like IAY and CAY) with Football-Reference’s adjusted yards per attempt stats (which are things like NY/A and ANY/A). 

In the end, it’s okay, because the argument he’s making does turn out to be true, even if he doesn’t understand why. Heinicke’s air yard stats are all higher than Wentz’s, and I think we’ve all been able to see that in action. Heinicke is more willing to throw the ball down the field, and he’s not eating all these sacks when he holds onto the ball to do so. 
 

For me, it’s not a question of whether Week 7-13 Heinicke was better than Week 1-6 Wentz — I think he definitely was.

The question, to me, is whether Week 7-13 Heinicke — and more importantly still, Week 15-18 Heinicke — is good enough for us to win and get where we’re trying to go. So it’s not as much about measuring where they were, it’s about trying to project which one of these guys is going to be the better player with the season on the line. 

At the end of it, Heinicke is a winner and Wentz is a loser, and pretty much everyone knows it. So you have to stick with him, I think. But I’d absolutely be lying to you if I said there’s not a huge part of me that thinks the only chance we have to matter in the next month-plus is if we could have an improved Wentz with better OL play and better command of the offense after weeks to learn on the sidelines. Because I don’t think Heinicke is good enough. 

I personally don't view Heinicke as good enough to get us much further than a first round exit. However, I don't think Wentz even gets you that far regardless of the situation. I had hopes he'd recapture some of the magic he had previously in his career however once I came to the conclusion, at least in my mind, that he was never going to it was time to move on. I don't want Rivera committing a major chunk of our salary cap to a guy who needs the perfect situation around him to succeed. I think some have this view that I see Heinicke as the answer when all I really see him is as better than Wentz. We lucked out with the injury because we almost certainly would've continued losing while continuing to play Wentz and would've given up a high second round pick.