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Race for the #1 pick


beardown3231

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5 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

If IND in that scenario wants Young but doesn’t really like Stroud or Levis, maybe they don’t want to trade with us at all now, and we won’t know that until HOU makes their pick, so to me unless the comp to go from 1-2 is A LOT I think making the move from 1 to 2 on assumptions is really risky and requires lining up a lot of moving parts.

They specifically might not want to (IND in this situaton) but teams will. This isnt all or nothing with Bryce Young. Heck, Young might end up being the 3rd QB off the board this spring.

If he is any decent GM, Poles will know who Houston wants, and if he were to pull that trigger, he will absolutely KNOW who they are taking. He should have an idea of what every team that offers him a trade is expecting to pick if threy move up. Then you go back to all your other suitors who still like the Remaining set of QBs and go right back to the offers they already gave you, because pretty much nothing has changed.

This isnt a game show (or one of the mock simulators) where we are making a selection of a mystery box here. Other than the team he makes the deals with, he wont be 100% sure, but he will have pretty good ideas. 

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3 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

Come back to reality if were going to have this conversation

The Value at the Top is the QBs, theres more than 1, but like 7 teams with that need. Before the Texans screwed up and won yesterday we were all still talking Trade Down scenarios and that was AFTER thy already took one of the QBs

The Mitch Swap from 1 to 2 just puts us right back into that same scenario while also collecting a few more picks.

3 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

They specifically might not want to (IND in this situaton) but teams will. This isnt all or nothing with Bryce Young. Heck, Young might end up being the 3rd QB off the board this spring.

If he is any decent GM, Poles will know who Houston wants, and if he were to pull that trigger, he will absolutely KNOW who they are taking. He should have an idea of what every team that offers him a trade is expecting to pick if threy move up. Then you go back to all your other suitors who still like the Remaining set of QBs and go right back to the offers they already gave you, because pretty much nothing has changed.

This isnt a game show (or one of the mock simulators) where we are making a selection of a mystery box here. Other than the team he makes the deals with, he wont be 100% sure, but he will have pretty good ideas. 

Sure, but it might be all about Bryce Young (or Stroud or Levis) for the Texans, and if so we should ask for more. We shouldn’t downplay the factor when considering Houston that the next highest pick amongst QB-needy teams is a divisional opponent of theirs either. If you’re HOU, who has the most draft capital of anyone, do you pay at least somewhat of a premium to not only make sure you don’t miss out on your guy, but to make sure he doesn’t go to a team where you’re gonna play against him 2x/year until 2035 as well? And really, it’s the same question for IND. I think that creates value for us. Exponential value? Probably not, but something. We’re talking about a regime-defining pick here when you’re taking a QB in the top 5. As that GM, do you really want to hitch your wagon to your 2nd choice? Or 3rd choice? And like I said responding to another post, HOU may themselves be looking to move down in which case all of the discussion of 1 to 2 is a moot point anyway. 

We’ve been talking scenarios for weeks trading down from 2, but now that we have the added value of being at 1 instead I want to make sure we’re maximizing that, because trading from 1 to 2 then 2 to 4 (or wherever) might or might not land us as much value in return as just going straight to the latter. We need to find out just how bad HOU wants whoever they’d presumably want in a trade up scenario. If they like 1 QB way more than others I think that’ll be more than just a Mitch trade, and if not then not. More than anything I’m just preaching for all possibly avenues to be fully vetted to maximize value, with those avenues being both customary or unconventional, while also making sure Poles is still in position to get the guy(s) he wants along the way (something that will go under discussed until at which point the presumed trade is actually executed). 

Who needs QBs now, on 1/9, is going to change too. We can’t forget that one of these potential suitors probably lands Garoppolo. Another might get Brady, or Carr, or Tannehill if released. or trade for Jordan Love if Rodgers is back. By April the list of suitors is gonna be notably smaller too, and this whole landscape will have narrowed.

We can talk about all the what ifs here for the next 2 months (and we will lol) but I think what we can probably all agree on is that Poles needs to take his time, survey the whole landscape and make as informed of a decision as he can. He is holding all the cards here.

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49 minutes ago, Ty21 said:

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You could pull so many of these.   The we are keeping all the receipts on Bears season twitter crowd was brutal or embarrassing.  Whatever word you want to use.  

Here we are with no. 1 pick.  LOL  

It happens.   Hasn't happened to Bears in many moons. 

We are in age of tanks and we executed one successfully when it came time to do so.

 

 

 

 

 

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18 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

 

Who needs QBs now, on 1/9, is going to change too. We can’t forget that one of these potential suitors probably lands Garoppolo. Another might get Brady, or Carr, or Tannehill if released. or trade for Jordan Love if Rodgers is back. By April the list of suitors is gonna be notably smaller too, and this whole landscape will have narrowed.

We can talk about all the what ifs here for the next 2 months (and we will lol) but I think what we can probably all agree on is that Poles needs to take his time, survey the whole landscape and make as informed of a decision as he can. He is holding all the cards here.

No doubt.   Many will choose the vet route rather than give up draft capital.   

Good thing is many of those guys are damaged goods or require draft capital of their own to acquire.

Garoppolo has trouble staying healthy.  

Brady is really old now.

Carr has not had success despite having talent on paper.

Tannehill has not played well of late.  Titan fans are not high on him.   

At least Jordan Love still has some 'potential' label due to limited public viewing.   

But, you also have to think if LaFLuer doesn't want this guy after he has had him for 3 years and knows his system in and out why would I want to take his garbage?   I don't know him better than LaFluer does.   

If LaFluer does want him, he is staying and it is moot.

Your other choices are Sam Darnold, Dalton, Trubisky, Foles or Wentz, Goff if Detroit goes rookie, Cooper Rush, Winston, Geno Smith if Seahawks go rookie.

I think a lot of teams would prefer blank slate of a rookie.  CJ Stroud looked really good in his last game.  A lot of people are very high on Bryce Young.   

Someone else will catch people's eye when coaches get back from vacation.  

 

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