Race for the #1 pick

[Madmike90]

3 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

Yes those are two PREMIUM assets with the trajectory of the Rams right now, and could have helped them get Whatever QB they would want. And they passed on them.

Seems like you have gotten Burns stuck in your head like he is the savior to this defense (still not the most important player in this scheme) but he is clearly a Franchise Cornerstone for them, just like DJ Moore.

The Panthers can go get just about any QB they want this off-season, if they true are “obsessed” with them, without giving up those players. Teams do it every year. Heck they could end up with a better QB them they had this year without giving up really anything. There will be plenty on the market. 

They are premium assets that come with zero guarantees...it's why future picks are never worth as much as current picks and as I said will be why they had no interest in moving Burns at that point.

I am far from having Burns stuck in my head and feel the Panthers have other players who could help us like Derrick Brown but of course the draft capital then goes up with a player like him...there are also many other teams like the Raiders or Colts who could look to give up players in order to move up rather than pure draft capital.

The Panthers could go and get a QB like Carr...hell they could even make a run at Brady (doubtful) but in all likelihood they will have to find their guy through the draft and to do that staying at #8 or so would present risk...moving up takes that away...right now everything is on the table.

[Sugashane]

5 hours ago, Ty21 said:

I wonder. If we secured the first pick, traded down to rack up more picks and a first next year, and again for more future picks, but Das Flubby wins less than 6 again next year, is he even around next draft to use them? This is an instant gratification league 

I mean I don't think anyone expects to set the league on fire next year regardless of FA and draft classes. Now if we have a good offseason and find ourselves a 4-5 win team though I absolutely could see Poles cutting him off to save himself. This year was suppose to suck but the plan going forward was made with Phillips, and he's retiring. 

Remember the talk that they didn't draft Jenkins or Fields? Well Warren or whoever the new President/CEO didn't hire them either. Will they be on a short leash if je isn't happy? 

That being said I expect a good jump in wins (7 wins shouldnt be hard with how close we were with this roster) provided we dont **** the bed in FA. We were competitive in most games and only against HOU can I say we had a better roster. 

[AZBearsFan]

8 hours ago, Ty21 said:

I’m personally hoping we are active enough in free agency that drafting someone in the first isn’t directly screwing another position of need. Like trading for Burns and 8, signing Daron Payne then taking Johnston or trading down again 

Ideal situation IMO is we end up at 1 (obviously) and we are able to trade down with HOU to 2 who is smitten with one of the QBs over the others, and then trade down again with IND to 5, get a **** ton of extra draft capital, and still get an elite prospect at 5. We could theoretically end up with multiple 1s this and next year, 5+ picks in the top 65 this year, and still get a top 5 prospect.

This place would be a god damn MADHOUSE. 

[Ty21]

19 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

Ideal situation IMO is we end up at 1 (obviously) and we are able to trade down with HOU to 2 who is smitten with one of the QBs over the others, and then trade down again with IND to 5, get a **** ton of extra draft capital, and still get an elite prospect at 5. We could theoretically end up with multiple 1s this and next year, 5+ picks in the top 65 this year, and still get a top 5 prospect.

This place would be a god damn MADHOUSE. 

I’m going to say here that real life isn’t like playing Madden, with the hope that you quote this comment in a few months to make fun of me for being wrong 

[Sugashane]

26 minutes ago, Ty21 said:

I’m going to say here that real life isn’t like playing Madden, with the hope that you quote this comment in a few months to make fun of me for being wrong 

Obviously. I won a lot in Madden with the Bears. 😁

[Sugashane]

47 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

Ideal situation IMO is we end up at 1 (obviously) and we are able to trade down with HOU to 2 who is smitten with one of the QBs over the others, and then trade down again with IND to 5, get a **** ton of extra draft capital, and still get an elite prospect at 5. We could theoretically end up with multiple 1s this and next year, 5+ picks in the top 65 this year, and still get a top 5 prospect.

This place would be a god damn MADHOUSE. 

I'm still aboard the "try to poach Buckner from IND" train too.

"Look, we'll give you 1(2) and you give us 1(5), Buckner, Pittman, and Pierce and we'll call it a day."

[AZBearsFan]

34 minutes ago, Ty21 said:

I’m going to say here that real life isn’t like playing Madden, with the hope that you quote this comment in a few months to make fun of me for being wrong 

Pretty sure everyone who posts here hopes you’re right! 🍻 

[BearsFanForever]

6 hours ago, Ty21 said:

I’m going to say here that real life isn’t like playing Madden, with the hope that you quote this comment in a few months to make fun of me for being wrong 

It sure seems Miami last year played some madden when they traded their 3rd pick to the 49ers for a slew of 1st rounders and more.  That is what people are hoping that happens with the bears. 

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, BearsFanForever said:

It sure seems Miami last year played some madden when they traded their 3rd pick to the 49ers for a slew of 1st rounders and more.  That is what people are hoping that happens with the bears. 

Depending on how far we were to trade down, shouldn’t we expect a slew of picks? If we were to trade down from 1 or 2 to 8 or 9 (currently CAR’s and LVR’s slots) for them to move up for a QB, the precedent is there. Especially if we’re trading down from 1.

For the initial move I suggested for my ideal scenario (us getting 1 & trading down to 2 with HOU then with IND from 2-5), by the trade value chart, which isn’t exact but is usually a pretty good guide, for HOU to go from 2 to 1 would go something like this:

HOU gets 1-1, 5-152 (3029 pts)

CHI gets 1-2, 3-64, 4-96, 5-128 (3030 pts)

To then go from 2 to 5 (IND):

IND gets 1-2, 5-129 (2643 pts)

CHI gets 1-5, 2-36, 2024 1st (valued 420 at pick 48 since future picks are typically valued a round lower) (2660 pts)

Here we are left with 1-5, 2 2nds, the first 2 picks in the 3rd, the first 2 picks in the 4th (3 4ths overall) in exchange for moving down from 1 to 5 and our two 5ths. We’d have 5 picks in the top 65, and 7 in the top 100 (prior to comp picks being awarded), plus IND’s 1 next year. 

That’s per the chart. BUT, the 4 teams set to pick immediately behind IND (ATL, DET, CAR, LV) also might be looking to get to 1 or 2 for their QB of choice, so the likelihood HOU or IND has to pay a premium here to “win” our pick auction is seemingly pretty high, so it could very plausibly be even more than that. And that’s a presumptive return going from 1-2 and 2-5. The return going to anywhere from 6-9 should be expected to be even more.

[Madmike90]

35 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

Depending on how far we were to trade down, shouldn’t we expect a slew of picks? If we were to trade down from 1 or 2 to 8 or 9 (currently CAR’s and LVR’s slots) for them to move up for a QB, the precedent is there. Especially if we’re trading down from 1.

For the initial move I suggested for my ideal scenario (us getting 1 & trading down to 2 with HOU then with IND from 2-5), by the trade value chart, which isn’t exact but is usually a pretty good guide, for HOU to go from 2 to 1 would go something like this:

HOU gets 1-1, 5-152 (3029 pts)

CHI gets 1-2, 3-64, 4-96, 5-128 (3030 pts)

To then go from 2 to 5 (IND):

IND gets 1-2, 5-129 (2643 pts)

CHI gets 1-5, 2-36, 2024 1st (valued 420 at pick 48 since future picks are typically valued a round lower) (2660 pts)

Here we are left with 1-5, 2 2nds, the first 2 picks in the 3rd, the first 2 picks in the 4th (3 4ths overall) in exchange for moving down from 1 to 5 and our two 5ths. We’d have 5 picks in the top 65, and 7 in the top 100 (prior to comp picks being awarded), plus IND’s 1 next year. 

That’s per the chart. BUT, the 4 teams set to pick immediately behind IND (ATL, DET, CAR, LV) also might be looking to get to 1 or 2 for their QB of choice, so the likelihood HOU or IND has to pay a premium here to “win” our pick auction is seemingly pretty high, so it could very plausibly be even more than that. And that’s a presumptive return going from 1-2 and 2-5. The return going to anywhere from 6-9 should be expected to be even more.

For me it is clear I love the idea of drafting Carter…even like the idea of draft Anderson at #1 or #2…but with that said you offer me the above draft haul alongside say Tyree Wilson (who in this scheme I have real close to Anderson) and I would rip your hand off for it…we aren’t just one player away and as much as drafting an elite pass rushing prospect is a must for me the difference between Anderson & Wilson or Murphy just isn’t enough for me not to move back…especially if we sign some good talent in FA first.

[StLunatic88]

OK, lets reset and take One more look at the draft situation going into the Final week;

Chicago Bears 3-13 (home vs MIN) .566 SOS

• So I believe we can end up with any pick from #1 through #4. The previous Colts/Texans tie locks us in the Top 4, and is what would let us jump into #1 as well if it comes to that. Obviously we know about the potential with the HOU/IND (we will get to that) but we have by a pretty good margin, the strongest SOS in the league. We will lose tiebreakers to any team we are matched up with. We would still end up with a good prospect or likely a pretty decent trade package wherever we end up, but obviously 1/2 would be way more Lucrative. The Vikings will likely be playing all their guys, they need to get right as well as have a shot to take the #2 seed in the NFC Playoffs. If the Niners are blowing out the Cardinals, we could see those guys being pulled at halftime, but Justin Jefferson still has Megatron within reach (even after a dud last week). He needs 194 yards to pass him, and 229 yards to hit 2000 for the season. Those are both in the realm of possibility against this Bears D

Denver Broncos 4-12 (home vs LAC) .485 SOS ->Traded to SEA

• Russell has a Pulse! Only if that would have happened a month ago. But they took it to KC at Arrowhead last week, and could very well do the same for the final Home game of the season as they all pitch this very awkward (to say the least) situation to the next Head Coach. The Chargers do still have something to play for at this point, but now its all kind of up in the air after Monday Night. At this point I dont think they have announced the time of the CIN/BAL game, as it was originally dependent on if the North was still to be decided with this game. Unfortunately that is no longer the situation. I say all of this because the Chargers MAY already know what their seed is locked into. If the Ravens lose, the Chargers are locked into the #5 seed and headed to JAX/TEN (which will already be known) I think the Broncos will be looking to win this game regardless, and could take down the Chargers. Especially as we have yet to see them "Bolt" it up yet this season.

Arizona Cardinals 4-12 (road vs SF) .526 SOS

• Dang, they had that  game in Atlanta with the Blough Bomber. Would have been so nice to have them clear of this, and would have given Indy even more incentive this week. But now they go on the road again, against a Niners team who basically has to win. The Niners have an outside shot at the #1 seed, and for sure want to hold onto the #2 seed here. Doesnt seem like Arizona has a snowball's chance in hell here, but Jarrett Stidham almost took them out, anything can happen in the NFL.

 Houston Texans 2-13-1 (.485 SOS) vs Indianapolis Colts 4-11-1 (.507 SOS)

• By FAR the most important game of the weekend to us other than our own. I was really hoping they NFL would have a hard decision to make for the stand alone Sunday Night game. They would have never done it, but if none of the games had the same implications for both teams, the Tanking Battle here would have been hilarious to see. A Bizzaro world broadcast would have been something, but as I said, they would never embrace that. Another tie doesnt help us at all, it does keep Indy at #5 (for trade scenarios) but it also keeps Houston at #1. We should be rooting very hard for the Texans here. I think it was said earlier, but lets hope Lovie does it on the way out the door. 

 

It is most likely we still end up at #2 overall, but I think its way too possible that we end up at #3 overall. Probably more likely than we end up with #1. My guess is as follows;

1. 15% chance
2. 60% chance
3. 20% chance
4. 5% chance

Edited January 3 by StLunatic88

[dll2000]

Our offseason will be interesting as we should be players in FA as well as draft trade market.

Will be lots to talk about.   One more game to get through.

No injuries!
 

[Madmike90]

7 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

Our offseason will be interesting as we should be players in FA as well as draft trade market.

Will be lots to talk about.   One more game to get through.

No injuries!
 

Truthfully I can't wait to get the game over with on Sunday...it has sucked going through a season hoping your team loses just for a better draft spot...at least once the game is over and we know where we are at we can start to look ahead to hopefully some great games in the playoffs then all the madness an NFL offseason brings...

Negative: No more Bears Games for months.

Positive: From Monday the 9th it is only 9 weeks until the 13th of March and the start of Free Agency & 5 of those weeks we have playoff football.

[CBears019]

3 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

OK, lets reset and take One more look at the draft situation going into the Final week;

Chicago Bears 3-13 (home vs MIN) .566 SOS

• So I believe we can end up with any pick from #1 through #4. The previous Colts/Texans tie locks us in the Top 4, and is what would let us jump into #1 as well if it comes to that. Obviously we know about the potential with the HOU/IND (we will get to that) but we have by a pretty good margin, the strongest SOS in the league. We will lose tiebreakers to any team we are matched up with. We would still end up with a good prospect or likely a pretty decent trade package wherever we end up, but obviously 1/2 would be way more Lucrative. The Vikings will likely be playing all their guys, they need to get right as well as have a shot to take the #2 seed in the NFC Playoffs. If the Niners are blowing out the Cardinals, we could see those guys being pulled at halftime, but Justin Jefferson still has Megatron within reach (even after a dud last week). He needs 194 yards to pass him, and 229 yards to hit 2000 for the season. Those are both in the realm of possibility against this Bears D

Denver Broncos 4-12 (home vs LAC) .485 SOS ->Traded to SEA

• Russell has a Pulse! Only if that would have happened a month ago. But they took it to KC at Arrowhead last week, and could very well do the same for the final Home game of the season as they all pitch this very awkward (to say the least) situation to the next Head Coach. The Chargers do still have something to play for at this point, but now its all kind of up in the air after Monday Night. At this point I dont think they have announced the time of the CIN/BAL game, as it was originally dependent on if the North was still to be decided with this game. Unfortunately that is no longer the situation. I say all of this because the Chargers MAY already know what their seed is locked into. If the Ravens lose, the Chargers are locked into the #5 seed and headed to JAX/TEN (which will already be known) I think the Broncos will be looking to win this game regardless, and could take down the Chargers. Especially as we have yet to see them "Bolt" it up yet this season.

Arizona Cardinals 4-12 (road vs SF) .526 SOS

• Dang, they had that  game in Atlanta with the Blough Bomber. Would have been so nice to have them clear of this, and would have given Indy even more incentive this week. But now they go on the road again, against a Niners team who basically has to win. The Niners have an outside shot at the #1 seed, and for sure want to hold onto the #2 seed here. Doesnt seem like Arizona has a snowball's chance in hell here, but Jarrett Stidham almost took them out, anything can happen in the NFL.

 Houston Texans 2-13-1 (.485 SOS) vs Indianapolis Colts 4-11-1 (.507 SOS)

• By FAR the most important game of the weekend to us other than our own. I was really hoping they NFL would have a hard decision to make for the stand alone Sunday Night game. They would have never done it, but if none of the games had the same implications for both teams, the Tanking Battle here would have been hilarious to see. A Bizzaro world broadcast would have been something, but as I said, they would never embrace that. Another tie doesnt help us at all, it does keep Indy at #5 (for trade scenarios) but it also keeps Houston at #1. We should be rooting very hard for the Texans here. I think it was said earlier, but lets hope Lovie does it on the way out the door. 

 

It is most likely we still end up at #2 overall, but I think its way too possible that we end up at #3 overall. Probably more likely than we end up with #1. My guess is as follows;

1. 15% chance
2. 60% chance
3. 20% chance
4. 5% chance

I believe i read that Sam Ehlinger may be starting for the Colts.  That definitely boosts the Texans chances.  

[beardown3231]

45 minutes ago, CBears019 said:

I believe i read that Sam Ehlinger may be starting for the Colts.  That definitely boosts the Texans chances.  

Does it? He sucks but Foles is *** too

The Colts are a joke and Houston is playing better. I wish the game was in Indy though