Race for the #1 pick

[AZBearsFan]

4 minutes ago, HuskieBear said:

the biggest issue here is that would have to happen FAST, unless a trade with AZ happens well ahead of the draft

because its the non-exclusive, BAL will still have 7 days to match any contract, so it's not like it can just happen during the draft. the only way that happens is if baltimore and indy and lamar get together on some kind of deal well before the draft for a "in case of this, then this" scenario

The 7 days only applies to an offer sheet. They can just trade for him at any point. If they expect QBs will go 1-3 and they won’t know which one would be left for him then trading for Lamar would be arguably the most desirable option for them, especially if they like 1 of the 4 significantly less than the other 3. 

[HuskieBear]

5 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

The 7 days only applies to an offer sheet. They can just trade for him at any point. If they expect QBs will go 1-3 and they won’t know which one would be left for him then trading for Lamar would be arguably the most desirable option for them, especially if they like 1 of the 4 significantly less than the other 3. 

but they cant just trade for him, because he's not under contract

[AZBearsFan]

3 hours ago, HuskieBear said:

but they cant just trade for him, because he's not under contract

This article was just posted 3/9:

Lamar would essentially be saying to BAL, “I’ll only sign the tag to facilitate a trade.” In his case I’d expect for one of these deals to happen that the acquiring team would have to offer more than two 1st round picks to facilitate the swap, basically buying out BAL’s match option.

[Superman(DH23)]

4 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

This article was just posted 3/9:

Lamar would essentially be saying to BAL, “I’ll only sign the tag to facilitate a trade.” In his case I’d expect for one of these deals to happen that the acquiring team would have to offer more than two 1st round picks to facilitate the swap, basically buying out BAL’s match option.

I think the likelihood of Baltimore getting more than 2 firsts is slim to none and slim just bought a ticket out of town.  There is no reason to.  If you sign Lamar to an offer sheet, chances are it's 100% guaranteed, Baltimore isn't going to match it.  If ots not 100% guaranteed somehow, you can structure it in a way that it's very difficult for Baltimore to match.  If Baltimore is hoping for a sign and trade option they are looking at less than 2 firsts, bc if you are the team wanting Lamar, you are just wanting to avoid losing the 2 FRPs

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, Superman(DH23) said:

I think the likelihood of Baltimore getting more than 2 firsts is slim to none and slim just bought a ticket out of town.  There is no reason to.  If you sign Lamar to an offer sheet, chances are it's 100% guaranteed, Baltimore isn't going to match it.  If ots not 100% guaranteed somehow, you can structure it in a way that it's very difficult for Baltimore to match.  If Baltimore is hoping for a sign and trade option they are looking at less than 2 firsts, bc if you are the team wanting Lamar, you are just wanting to avoid losing the 2 FRPs

I don’t think it’s a given that BAL wouldn’t match a fully guaranteed deal. I think their stance all along has been that, unless the market proves them to be wrong, fully guaranteed just don’t happen. If the market says Lamar is worth ~$50M per for 4-5 years fully guaranteed then they may admit their read was wrong and match the deal while keeping their franchise QB and face of the organization who is right in the middle of his prime.

Conversely, from IND/Ballard’s side, if you’re willing to pay Lamar’s asking price financially can you afford to even risk that BAL may match, even if ithat possibility is seemingly small? They just got pantsed in the race for the Bears’ pick after Ballard basically came into the offseason committing to do whatever it would take to land a franchise QB this offseason. Lamar is the only one in FA, and QB4 may well not be in their eyes. Richardson and Levis (presumed QB3/4 here) may not even be ready to start right away. Ballard’s job is on the line right now and he needs a big move. An over trade to make sure he doesn’t get pantsed again makes a ton of sense for them. If anything, the desperation for him that we’ve talked about all offseason is only higher now after he wasn’t able to land the deal to get the 1st pick. Much like we saw with Pace (who also should’ve been fired at least a year before he was), who’s concerned about trading future picks if you may not be around to use them anyway?

Edited March 11, 2023 by AZBearsFan