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How much blame belongs to George Paton?


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21 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Recognizing that a few outliers didn't like the deal (full credit to @AKRNA, he called it), it really is a case of hindsight for 99% of fans - including here.    

The extension could have been avoided - but that's also a reflection of how insane the market increases have been.     That's the risk with extensions but again, no one who supported the trade was against it, either.

To be clear, I'm not in the boat that thinks it's hopeless - because the OL & coaching issues are THAT bad right now.  To be clear, Russ is still a big problem - the Q is whether it's fixable.     But either way, the flexibility of only being tied to 2023 would have been far better....in hindsight.   That's my problem with the Paton criticism here.  The same ppl calling for his head that were supporting the move 6+ months ago have no leg to stand on. 

I will differ from those who say that the ownership is risking scaring away good candidates by an early firing, though - DEN's ownership has deep pockets, and Paton is highly respected in the NFL community.    Frankly, him keeping Hackett week in and week out is doing more damage to Paton's stock IMO - because it's giving the appearance he's more interested in protecting his choice.    The fact that ownership was willing to fire Hackett at the bye if we lost to JAX - TOTALLY invalidates the argument about sending the wrong message to new coaches.    Once that story is out, you've already bought the perception.     Frankly, it's the most disheartening part of this year - ownership let Hackett stay because of the JAX W, but would have canned him had we lost?     After the last 3 weeks, I don't know how you justify that - and frankly, the fanbase and players get this in spades.   It's crushing that Paton doesn't.  THAT is one area I'll see criticism as valid.

The reality is that the O and D could function autonomously without Hackett - they already do.   Firing Hackett sends a message to the players and fans that the ownership and FO hold everyone accountable - not just the players.    If Hackett was a player, and performed this poorly - he'd have been cut weeks ago.    Last Sunday, we actually saw the D break in the 2H - and I really don't blame anyone on that squad.   Enough is enough.

The rule that every coach should get 2 years, or even 1 - is a good one.  But there are ALWAYS exceptions to the rule, and frankly, Hackett's incompetence, and the fact he's also been an OC / assistant HC for 10+ years - this isn't a rookie HC with limited time, who can grow.   We ALL know it's over with him.     Prolonging this execution is just excruciating on all sides - and given we were willing to fire him after JAX, there's no supposed "gain" to new HC's.   The best way to attract good HC's - show the roster we have has hope with even just an "OK" interim guy.     Keeping the status quo is only crushing our perception to outsiders even more - because it calls into question the decision-making of the FO by keeping Hackett.

 

What's the upside of firing him in season besides appeasing the fans? What message does it really send to the team?

And while Hackett wasn't a good hire to begin with, he's taking a lot of heat because of Wilson. Wilson is a 10 year vet back there holding the ball, making poor decisions like a rookie. He's missing reads and throwing up moon ball instead of throwing to the wide open checks. He wants to be a pocket passer, but doesn't want to throw over the middle opting for jump balls on the boundary. 

What quality HC candidate would want this job tied to Wilson until 2026? He's 34, his best football is behind him. While certainly, he can't stay THIS bad, do we really think he can turn it around at this stage of his career? 

 

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18 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I am NOT suggesting we are dealing with the same level of QB talent - but Urban Meyer's incompetence made Trevor Lawrence look like he's not even starter level, bottom-5 last year.     The OL issues and bad OC work made Tua look awful last year.   And even though he still needs a lot of work, Fields is nowhere near as bad as last year with Matt Nagy's supreme-level incompetence.   No one disputes that Hackett is on that level of awful - otherewise the fact he's a goner after Year 1 as a given would seem nuts. 

There are countless examples where truly horrific OC & OL play creates nightmare QB performance.  Having said that, neither Trevor Lawrence, Tua or Fields were completely blameless either (as well as they've played this year, you see certain flaws that they still own <Lawrence reading zones, Tua's arm strength is def limited, Fields still needs work as a thrower, but he's made def progress>).    

Wilson being 34, he shouldn't be THIS bad from coaching / OL.   Let's be clear about that.   It's a pipe dream to think he can still be top 6-8, and 2022's nightmare is all coaching & OL.    But it's also very possible he's being coached by a guy who's worse than Urban Meyer in terms of O prep.     So I'm not sitting here thinking firing Hackett solves all the problems.   The OL needs a MASSIVE upgrade in 3 spots (and the other 2 we missed our starters we'd feel OK about in 2023).     Could he be in the top 12 tier (but not top 6-8) with a decent coach and OL?   Sure.   Could he be a similar version to Tannehill/Cousins?  That seems more than fair to project given what what we know.  The arm talent is still there, nothing is physically wrong long-term.    But we won't know anything more keeping the status quo, and there's literally no hope to be better with Hackett leading the clown show.

To be clear - if Russ is top 12-15 - it's still a horrible trade.   Because we were looking for 3 years of top 6-8 level play, and then more decline later.   But the current level of awful, well we know when apocalyptic level coaches leave...it's not quite so bad as we thought on the QB.     And TBH, that's a major reason why I want him gone now.   The sooner we take Hackett out, the sooner we let others step in - they may be no better, but they literally can't be worse.   And yes, we probably don't know until next season, with a new HC/OC and new OL, how much better Russ can be.   But IMO there's nothing lost by starting fresh now.    We already are known to have been ready to fire Hackett after the UK game - that completely invalidates the "can't scare off good HC candidates" - the damage is done there.   So there's really nothing to lose here, and can only gain culture/perception/locker wise. 

My understanding was Wilson has input on the offense. The early comments from the trade suggested he'd be heavily involved:

https://www.9news.com/article/sports/nfl/denver-broncos/russell-wilson-will-have-input-on-denver-broncos-offense/73-7ebe933a-7179-4d26-a00d-11e591cc81e6

And leading into the season, there was the come to be expected cornball comments about Wilson calling Hackett in the middle of the night to discuss the offense and give his input, etc. 

What happened with all that? It's became, the offense sucks, it's all Hackett's fault now? Russ has no input, just lining up under center calling Seattle audibles apparently?

And the problem with him being a Cousins/Tannehill version QB is his game was never played from the pocket. His strength was making things happen with his feet which has clearly devolved. He can't or won't throw over the middle consistently. So what are you left with? 

My opinion of this is Wilson is washed and they all know it. But they can't say it out loud because of the trade/contract and they can't bench him. Hackett looks like a guy who is out of ideas. Strapped with a bottom tier QB who has an unliiiiiiiimited leash in the organization currently and he knows he will take the fall soon.

Question then becomes what quality coach will take this job with the #1 priority being fix our terrible investment..... 

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14 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

My understanding was Wilson has input on the offense. The early comments from the trade suggested he'd be heavily involved:

https://www.9news.com/article/sports/nfl/denver-broncos/russell-wilson-will-have-input-on-denver-broncos-offense/73-7ebe933a-7179-4d26-a00d-11e591cc81e6

And leading into the season, there was the come to be expected cornball comments about Wilson calling Hackett in the middle of the night to discuss the offense and give his input, etc. 

What happened with all that? It's became, the offense sucks, it's all Hackett's fault now? Russ has no input, just lining up under center calling Seattle audibles apparently?

And the problem with him being a Cousins/Tannehill version QB is his game was never played from the pocket. His strength was making things happen with his feet which has clearly devolved. He can't or won't throw over the middle consistently. So what are you left with? 

My opinion of this is Wilson is washed and they all know it. But they can't say it out loud because of the trade/contract and they can't bench him. Hackett looks like a guy who is out of ideas. Strapped with a bottom tier QB who has an unliiiiiiiimited leash in the organization currently and he knows he will take the fall soon.

Question then becomes what quality coach will take this job with the #1 priority being fix our terrible investment..... 

I think it's disingenuous to ignore the role injuries are playing in this situation. I think Russ looks like absolute trash, and there's no denying that. However, when his only offensive weapon at the moment is Courtland Sutton, the entire OL has been decimated by injuries, we're using practice squad fodder at WR and RB, and the coaching is awful, I think you have to put some of that into the equation.

I'm not suggesting if everyone gets healthy Russ suddenly looks like prime Manning or something, but I do think if we had even some injury luck it might help matters.

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The offense while was a complete struggle in the red zone at least was moving the ball early in the season. Now? We punt on more than 50% of our drives because we aren’t even driving down the field which leads me to think while there isn’t some injury for Wilson something has been bugging him but he’s also sorely lacked on the mental aspect of the game which has compounded the issue. Not that Hackett will be back next year but nothing has ever seemed to be in sync then add in all the personnel losses and not hard to see why our offense is anemic.

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23 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

I think it's disingenuous to ignore the role injuries are playing in this situation. I think Russ looks like absolute trash, and there's no denying that. However, when his only offensive weapon at the moment is Courtland Sutton, the entire OL has been decimated by injuries, we're using practice squad fodder at WR and RB, and the coaching is awful, I think you have to put some of that into the equation.

I'm not suggesting if everyone gets healthy Russ suddenly looks like prime Manning or something, but I do think if we had even some injury luck it might help matters.

I don't disagree with this. But all teams deal with injuries and you have to expect more from a 10 year veteran QB than being historically bad offensively.

 

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1 hour ago, BroncoBruin said:

Tom Pelissero is George Paton’s guy so the report about Russ losing the locker room is notable. 

If it’s really this bad, I think you have to seriously consider eating the biggest dead cap hit in NFL history ASAP. Whatever it takes to get rid of him.

 

This is a conversation that interests me. We've made a mountain of terrible mistakes but now it's time to live with 'em and hopefully learn from them.

Basically, we'll head into next season in worse shape than an expansion franchise. How we address that and move forward will determine whether we're 3-5 years from serious contention or a decade. There is not a quick fix. Looking for a quick fix is why we're here in the first place.

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1 hour ago, AKRNA said:

This is a conversation that interests me. We've made a mountain of terrible mistakes but now it's time to live with 'em and hopefully learn from them.

Basically, we'll head into next season in worse shape than an expansion franchise. How we address that and move forward will determine whether we're 3-5 years from serious contention or a decade. There is not a quick fix. Looking for a quick fix is why we're here in the first place.

I don't agree with this at all. Ostensibly, the HC is being fired. So you have an immediate opportunity to improve right there. Next, we have a significant amount of cap space and we've recouped a R1 pick. There's going to be regression to the mean from an injury perspective (there has to be).

I don't think this is a good team, but I do think the team at present is not as bad as they appear to be. I could certainly be wrong of course, but I don't think an expansion team has a defense this good. Literally build an average offense. Hell, an offense ranked 20th in the league, and this is a playoff team if the defense continues its play.

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3 hours ago, broncos67 said:

I don't agree with this at all. Ostensibly, the HC is being fired. So you have an immediate opportunity to improve right there. Next, we have a significant amount of cap space and we've recouped a R1 pick. There's going to be regression to the mean from an injury perspective (there has to be).

I don't think this is a good team, but I do think the team at present is not as bad as they appear to be. I could certainly be wrong of course, but I don't think an expansion team has a defense this good. Literally build an average offense. Hell, an offense ranked 20th in the league, and this is a playoff team if the defense continues its play.

Honestly, this is also curious from the perspective that Paton has yet to fire Hackett.    If this came out well after Hackett was gone - I'd take it at face value.   Knowing that Pellisaro is close to Paton - I also have to assume this is Paton's way of somehow trying to protect Hackett.   THAT is very worrisome IMO.   The sooner Hackett is fired, the more relieved I'll be.     Because nothing changes until he's gone.   

Wilson may not be fixable - but there's a lot more likelihood someone else can fix him to be at least league-average, and maybe better....than there is that Wilson's the big problem that needs to be addressed first.     This IMO is a reflection of what happens when teams keep losing - and again, I'll re-iterate it's why there is value in letting Hackett go now.    I'll take it one step further - if Wilson is a heavy Hackett backer - firing him in-season drives home the accountability message.   Even if he's not - the message gets sent loud and clear.

Again, the fact the FO was willing to fire Hackett after the JAX game had we lost - the damage is done in terms of looking impatient.   If anything, it makes the FO look incompetent in not seeing what everyone else sees.   That's my main beef with Paton - not the trade, and not even the extension (pure hindsight for 99+ percent of fans and even media).

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2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

 

Again, the fact the FO was willing to fire Hackett after the JAX game had we lost - the damage is done in terms of looking impatient.   If anything, it makes the FO look incompetent in not seeing what everyone else sees.   That's my main beef with Paton - not the trade, and not even the extension (pure hindsight for 99+ percent of fans and even media).

I don't know where everybody gets that figure. Maybe strictly Denver fans and press but I read many opinion pieces that thought it was a terrible deal for many reasons, from overpriced, to bad locker room guy (me first) to failing abilities due mostly to the fact that he'd been hit more than Aaron Rodgers despite playing half as long.. The biggest and not even arguable reason is the simple fact he's not now nor ever has been effective in the pocket. 

My problem with it was simple. How exactly were we going to close the gap with Buffalo and KC among others with better QB's and rosters by trading premium draft picks and starters for a QB that wouldn't be as good as Mahomes, Herbert, etc.?

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34 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

I don't know where everybody gets that figure. Maybe strictly Denver fans and press but I read many opinion pieces that thought it was a terrible deal for many reasons, from overpriced, to bad locker room guy (me first) to failing abilities due mostly to the fact that he'd been hit more than Aaron Rodgers despite playing half as long.. The biggest and not even arguable reason is the simple fact he's not now nor ever has been effective in the pocket. 

My problem with it was simple. How exactly were we going to close the gap with Buffalo and KC among others with better QB's and rosters by trading premium draft picks and starters for a QB that wouldn't be as good as Mahomes, Herbert, etc.?

The hope was having a top 5 defense to pair with a top 10-12 QB would close the gap and give them a championship window. They were right about the defense, probably well beyond their expectations. Combination of the QB, HC/OC and yet another season of bad injury luck killed a team with some upside.
 

They’ve got to figure out a way to cut down on the amount of injuries, every year they are filling spots with down roster and practice squad players by midseason because entire position groups get taken out on both sides of the ball. Injury luck was terrible with Fangio and worse this year. 

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I'm still wondering what reputable coach would take this job knowing it's tied to Russell Wilson? 

I've heard the name Dan Quinn pop up, but does he take this job knowing who Wilson is and what he's probably getting? Is it more likely they end up settling for another upstart HC candidate?

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9 hours ago, BroncoBruin said:

The hope was having a top 5 defense to pair with a top 10-12 QB would close the gap and give them a championship window. They were right about the defense, probably well beyond their expectations. Combination of the QB, HC/OC and yet another season of bad injury luck killed a team with some upside.
 

They’ve got to figure out a way to cut down on the amount of injuries, every year they are filling spots with down roster and practice squad players by midseason because entire position groups get taken out on both sides of the ball. Injury luck was terrible with Fangio and worse this year. 

We score 18 pts each game in regulation, we’re 10-2 (8-4 if you can’t get there to OT).   The hope was real.  
 

The RB/OL injuries are part of the game (and yes they’ve contributed a large part) - but both Hackett’s sheer incompetence to this level, and Russ’ own struggles to this level - those were unforeseen.   The Vegas line was set at 9.5-10W’s.   The level at which our O would fail to score is historically bad.  
 

No one saw this year as the legit SB contender year but it was supposed to be the stepping stone (maybe sneak in at 10-7 with a 4th place schedule, fill in the roster holes we knew about in 1 more offseason and we’d be in great shape going into 2023).  
 

The fact we have the #3 scoring D and #8 D by DVOA - every other team in the top 10 is a playoff contender and all have winning records except TAM.   Every division leader except KC  is in this category.    So yeah - it wasn’t crazy at all.   And the D is so young we can get even better - esp if we upgrade DL depth and get the cover ILB.    
 

The sad part is we only needed an “average” O to be a playoff competitor.   Not a legit SB contender - but that was 2023+.   Now we’ve lost a year, and need to start over coaching wise.   We need 3 OL upgrades.   RB is a good year to find help in FA and the draft (we should do both).   After that we see how much subtracting Hackett impacts - and how much Wilson has left.   

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As much as this season's been a total disaster, I think it's important to recognize long-term, the roster is still one to be optimistic about, ESPECIALLY on the D side.


DL

Dre'mont Jones - franchise tag worst-case

DJ Jones - everything we wanted him to be, locked up.

We need depth here, that's the issue.   #2 priority along with OL. 

EDGE

Baron Browning - looking like the impact elite EDGE we'd hoped Chubb would be.  Especially as it's his first year as a full-time EDGE, that's notable

Gregory - the injury bugaboo is always going to be a risk, but nothing in his time said he wouldn't be an impact guy when he plays

Bonnito - undersized, but if he can put 15+ lbs on in his first full offseason post-draft, could make the jump to being a 2-way EDGE.   As it is, already shows the pass rush chops.

ILB

Need a cover guy, but Josey Jewell has us in good position at #2.   

CB

Area of 2023+ strength - K'waun Williams in the slot should thrive.   Mathis has bounced back really well since the Chargers 4-penalty game.  Life of rookies.  I really think Darby's history.

S

Simmons/Sterns as the main 2, and PJ Locke / Turner-Yell (who I think could make a big leap next year, showing occ rookie flashes you want to see in limited time). 

 

 

Honestly, it comes down to subtracting Hackett, and finding out what Wilson has, with a decent OL/run game.    FA-wise, you can get a RB really cheaply who can be a starter (while still leaving the door open Javonte Williams can return to his 2021-22 form in 2024 - 2023 he'll return, but won't be his elite skill self until 2024, and yes, more risk with his injury).    You can also draft RB Day 3 and have a cheap RB stable of talent so you're not in 2022's situation anytime soon.     

Again, the RB free agent class is nuts:

Saquon Barkley (will be re-signed), Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, Kareem Hunt, David Montgomery, Miles Sanders, Jamaal Williams, D'onta Foreman, D'Ernst Johnson...and I'm leaving out 2-3 more guys who've never proven it, but were stuck behind elite RB's or stuck in timeshares (Alexander Mattison, Darrell Henderson, Raheem Mostert <no thanks because of age/injury issues, but impact when he plays>).

We don't even need to spend big $ - you can likely spend the same or less as MG3's original deal (2/10M) and get a starter-level impact guy (Foreman, Jamaal Williams), or go even more bargain basement and still get a starter-level guy 5x better than the guys we put out this year (D'Ernst Johnson).     I'll say it again - this is a good offseason to need RB, you don't have to pay a mint to get a starter (and then you can draft a RB for 2024+ in a deep RB draft class too, and find your future guy / caddie-handcuff).

The OL & DL have to be priorities, though - and likely both through early draft capital AND FA.   RT, C & one G position, and 1 more impact DL (and ideally, one value run-stuffer DL - can't be just the Jones duo all season long).  Cover ILB can be found in Rd3-5.   

The roster holes with injury at OL & RB were crippling - but RB can be addressed neatly.   This offseason, along with HC, it's got to be about trenches, trenches, trenches.

______________________

Paton's roster mandate for the offseason is going to be clear:

1.  Beef up the trenches on both sides in FA & draft (and early picks because some of these guys are going to need to start Day 1).

2.  Find a value RB in FA (which is very do-able, best year to do it in ages), then allows flexibility in draft to take RB whenever it makes the most sense, not by glaring need.

3.  Find a cover ILB (harder to find in FA, but Day 3 can be done).

4.  Get a 2nd TE to complement Dulcich (ideally inline, but that's harder to do, for obv reasons - doesn't need to be a diff maker, but has to be a legitimate receiver - like SEA has with Will Dissly, for example).

 

Obv, getting the HC right is the other key - he's likely on his last choice.   But roster-wise, the mandate couldn't be clearer IMO - the top 3 are just so obvious.    The good news is Paton has been excellent in mining talent both in FA and draft - but make no mistake, the way he bounces back stock-wise with ownership is building the team so the O can function.     We're committed to Wilson, so the path to fixing the O - begins and ends with fixing the trenches and RB's (Jeudy and even Sutton are still getting open, that's an area for 2023-24 offseason). 

 

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