Week 8 GDT: Broncos in London VS Jags

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

2 hours ago, paul-mac said:

What a great irony that someone who had been in senior assistant roles and finally made it to the top job is found to be completely over their head and might get fired in London after less than 2 months to be replaced by the guy that was passed over last time…. I think our UK fans like @lomaxgrUK and myself have seen this movie already this week.

Ah Liz… buried the queen, the pound, and the torries

Edited October 25, 2022 by broncos_fan _from _uk

[lomaxgrUK]

7 hours ago, paul-mac said:

I think it’s because the AFC is super tight this year and the 7th seed will likely be 9-8 or even 8-9. If the broncos win on Sunday to get to 3-5, it’s too early to wave the white flag on the season because we’d still be in touching distance of the wildcard race. If we lose and fall to 2-6 at the bye then it really is season over. 

This, with the fact Chubb is a UFA. He's just not worth the franchise tag and he is going to get PAID by someone that almost certainly isn't us.

If the season is done, which at 2-6 it is, why not cash in.

[paul-mac]

3 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

This, with the fact Chubb is a UFA. He's just not worth the franchise tag and he is going to get PAID by someone that almost certainly isn't us.

If the season is done, which at 2-6 it is, why not cash in.

What do you think his value is? Personally I think Chubb is overrated by some in our fan base and underrated by others. He’s playing his best football in years (at least since his rookie year, if not his best in the NFL period) but obviously his value goes down a bit because it’s a one year rental. I’m hoping that a team will value having first negotiation rights with him and the potential franchise tag, so we might get a 1st rounder for him. If someone offered two 1sts for Brian Burns then I think someone would offer one 1st for Chubb.

 

Jeudy for me is worth a second round pick but I don’t think someone will actually pay that given his injuries, drops, lack of production and rumours of being a bit of a locker room diva. Talent alone plus some good tape from the past few weeks mean I’m not trading him for a 3rd or 4th rounder, but I don’t really expect anyone to actually trade a 2nd. Maybe the Packers get desperate or someone else wants to go all in.

 

Hamler is the one guy I’m absolutely against trading. He would probably net a 5th or 6th rounder because he has only 40 career catches and 3 TDs. He’s a far better player than that but his career has been plagued by injuries, Wilson being too locked in on Sutton, and the 2020 emergence of Tim Patrick pushing him down the depth chart. Don’t get me wrong, if someone came in and offered a 3rd rounder I’d listen, but realistically you’re going to get a 5th rounder which is a borderline roster spot usually. 
 

One more thing, we shouldn’t trade both Jeudy and Hamler because that would create a need at WR for next year. I can understand trading one of them because Tim Patrick is coming back and you only really need three starting quality WRs and a couple of backup/special teams guys, but what’s the point in trading them both for a pick only to have to use that pick replacing them anyway?

 

Most likely scenario for me is that Chubb gets traded but Jeudy and Hamler stay. Albert O might even get cut. 

[lomaxgrUK]

1 hour ago, paul-mac said:

What do you think his value is? Personally I think Chubb is overrated by some in our fan base and underrated by others. He’s playing his best football in years (at least since his rookie year, if not his best in the NFL period) but obviously his value goes down a bit because it’s a one year rental. I’m hoping that a team will value having first negotiation rights with him and the potential franchise tag, so we might get a 1st rounder for him. If someone offered two 1sts for Brian Burns then I think someone would offer one 1st for Chubb.

I would put myself in the bracket of likely underrating him. I just don't see a game changing player, and I rarely think his sacks are of a high quality. Because of his size he is limited in terms of lateral agility (for the position, not for his size) and I don't think he brings enough in the run game to justify the lack of lateral agility.

He reminds me of Adalius Thomas, if people remember him. Don't get me wrong, that is a good player. Maybe very good. But Chubb is going to get paid like an elite player. 

We're already going to have a (vastly) overpaid QB, we can't afford to be paying someone $20m a year to (in my opinion) a $10m a year player. Not when we're already paying $15m for Gregory.

It's another domino effect of the Wilson trade and re-sign, unfortunately.

1 hour ago, paul-mac said:

Jeudy for me is worth a second round pick but I don’t think someone will actually pay that given his injuries, drops, lack of production and rumours of being a bit of a locker room diva. Talent alone plus some good tape from the past few weeks mean I’m not trading him for a 3rd or 4th rounder, but I don’t really expect anyone to actually trade a 2nd. Maybe the Packers get desperate or someone else wants to go all in.

One more thing, we shouldn’t trade both Jeudy and Hamler because that would create a need at WR for next year. I can understand trading one of them because Tim Patrick is coming back and you only really need three starting quality WRs and a couple of backup/special teams guys, but what’s the point in trading them both for a pick only to have to use that pick replacing them anyway?

It goes without saying that trading Jeudy leaves a hole on the roster. But we need draft capital and frankly, Jeudy on the roster isn't giving us much more than what another body couldn't give. Is that his fault entirely? No way. But the fact is that he isn't showing chemistry with Russ and the latter isn't going anywhere, so we may as well divert that resource elsewhere/someone else.

There are young WRs all over the league that are coming in and producing right away. It's up to George Paton to find us an equivalent.

Edited October 26, 2022 by lomaxgrUK

[broncos67]

58 minutes ago, lomaxgrUK said:

I would put myself in the bracket of likely underrating him. I just don't see a game changing player, and I rarely think his sacks are of a high quality. Because of his size he is limited in terms of lateral agility (for the position, not for his size) and I don't think he brings enough in the run game to justify the lack of lateral agility.

He reminds me of Adalius Thomas, if people remember him. Don't get me wrong, that is a good player. Maybe very good. But Chubb is going to get paid like an elite player. 

We're already going to have a (vastly) overpaid QB, we can't afford to be paying someone $20m a year to (in my opinion) a $10m a year player. Not when we're already paying $15m for Gregory.

It's another domino effect of the Wilson trade and re-sign, unfortunately.

It goes without saying that trading Jeudy leaves a hole on the roster. But we need draft capital and frankly, Jeudy on the roster isn't giving us much more than what another body couldn't give. Is that his fault entirely? No way. But the fact is that he isn't showing chemistry with Russ and the latter isn't going anywhere, so we may as well divert that resource elsewhere/someone else.

There are young WRs all over the league that are coming in and producing right away. It's up to George Paton to find us an equivalent.

Wow Adalius Thomas. That is an EXCELLENT comp for Chubb. Well said George.

I'd put his value at a 2 and 3 personally, just given the nature of the position and the season he's having. Paton tends to make smart deals, so I don't think he'll settle, especially because the comp pick we'd get for Chubb could be quite high.

I'd rather trade Jeudy/Hamler though. I was a huge Jeudy fan, but I don't know where his head's at. Sometimes guys are so accustomed to success they just stop trying when they don't feel it. I wonder if that is what is going on in this case. A team like GB should pony up a 2nd rounder if they want him, IMO.

[big_palooka]

13 hours ago, paul-mac said:

I think it’s because the AFC is super tight this year and the 7th seed will likely be 9-8 or even 8-9. If the broncos win on Sunday to get to 3-5, it’s too early to wave the white flag on the season because we’d still be in touching distance of the wildcard race. If we lose and fall to 2-6 at the bye then it really is season over. 

Makes sense. I didn't realize he's a FA after the season. In that sense, if you can get value I'd take it with or without the win. Browning looks like an ascending player and you have Gregory. 

How big an impact would trading Chubb in season effect the defense? Regardless win/lose, is he a big enough factor to turn down a 1st for a potential playoff run if they win? 

[broncos67]

5 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

Makes sense. I didn't realize he's a FA after the season. In that sense, if you can get value I'd take it with or without the win. Browning looks like an ascending player and you have Gregory. 

How big an impact would trading Chubb in season effect the defense? Regardless win/lose, is he a big enough factor to turn down a 1st for a potential playoff run if they win? 

I think it'll have some impact just because he's a more experienced player than others behind him, but I don't think personally it's the straw that breaks the camel's back as far as overall effectiveness goes. Given we don't have a 1st or 2nd, I think landing a 1st for him is a no brainer.

[Broncofan]

4 hours ago, paul-mac said:

What do you think his value is? Personally I think Chubb is overrated by some in our fan base and underrated by others. He’s playing his best football in years (at least since his rookie year, if not his best in the NFL period) but obviously his value goes down a bit because it’s a one year rental. I’m hoping that a team will value having first negotiation rights with him and the potential franchise tag, so we might get a 1st rounder for him. If someone offered two 1sts for Brian Burns then I think someone would offer one 1st for Chubb.

 

Jeudy for me is worth a second round pick but I don’t think someone will actually pay that given his injuries, drops, lack of production and rumours of being a bit of a locker room diva. Talent alone plus some good tape from the past few weeks mean I’m not trading him for a 3rd or 4th rounder, but I don’t really expect anyone to actually trade a 2nd. Maybe the Packers get desperate or someone else wants to go all in.

 

Hamler is the one guy I’m absolutely against trading. He would probably net a 5th or 6th rounder because he has only 40 career catches and 3 TDs. He’s a far better player than that but his career has been plagued by injuries, Wilson being too locked in on Sutton, and the 2020 emergence of Tim Patrick pushing him down the depth chart. Don’t get me wrong, if someone came in and offered a 3rd rounder I’d listen, but realistically you’re going to get a 5th rounder which is a borderline roster spot usually. 
 

One more thing, we shouldn’t trade both Jeudy and Hamler because that would create a need at WR for next year. I can understand trading one of them because Tim Patrick is coming back and you only really need three starting quality WRs and a couple of backup/special teams guys, but what’s the point in trading them both for a pick only to have to use that pick replacing them anyway?

 

Most likely scenario for me is that Chubb gets traded but Jeudy and Hamler stay. Albert O might even get cut. 

The reality is Jeudy & Hamler are worth far more to us than the picks being discussed.     It's not even close.     And I say that having been on record I'd have passed on Hamler Rd2.    A mid-late day 3 pick isn't a needle mover for him - especially since he won't be at peak physical form until 2023 (a point I've hammered on before, but will do so again).    It would be ridiculously bad to trade either guy for that kind of return.     As much as I think we should keep Brandon Johnson on the practice squad, and think Hinton is a guy who deserved to make the 53-man squad - they're nothing even close to the same talents we're talking about.   They might develop into something, but the more likely outcome is they won't.   This is a WR version of Caden Sterns we're talking about.    Those kind of players are projects, the kind of player you hope takes Tim Patrick's spot as 3rd WR cheaply, and your 4th/5th WR's - so you can devote resources elsewhere.    Thinking they'll just step into regular positions and the O won't suffer IMO is grossly misguided optimism.

Chubb, on the other hand, is a goner by year's end if we're not willing to pay 20M AAV next year.   And given we've already invested in Gregory, and have Browning/Bonnito, it makes way more sense to see if we can get a 2nd or  2 3rds for Chubb - as those would beat an end-of-3rd 2024 comp pick we MIGHT get (because it depends also how much we spend in FA).     Because there are at least 5-6 teams looking for EDGE help, we'd get better comp than letting him walk in FA - the only Q is how much.    The fact Chubb can be tagged makes him more than a rental - so I'd hope we can get the equivalent of a 2nd (whether it's 2 3rds or a straight 2nd is the Q).    

Albert O might be a cut, but apparently teams have inquired.    That alone would make it surprising we don't get something for him.

I do think Chubb/Albert O are by far the most likely trade targets.    Trading Jeudy for a 2nd or 3rd, or Hamler for a 5th/6th - no thanks.   Hard pass.     As tough as this year has been - the D is going to still be great next year.    This isn't a team that needs to do a long rebuild, not while the D is this good.    The O needs more work than we thought (OL being the biggest area we can address - we're committed to Wilson).   

We want to upgrade the team, start with the obvious fix - Hackett.    Then yes, we hit the OL hard - but that return for Jeudy/Hamler won't make it better for us next year.   Dealing Chubb for a Day 2 return, and Albert O for any day 3 pick, that makes us better next year (since we won't be committing 20M+ to Chubb AAV), and doesn't make our O a LOT worse.      

Edited October 26, 2022 by Broncofan

[Dbrog24]

Pretty much on board with what yall are saying. As I said in another thread, trading Jeudy and Hamler would be a mistake. Hamler is actually one of the ones who is consistently open for good gains. I know this past game was abnormally good for Jeudy, but he still gives us an element that our other receivers don't and what's really the point trading him anyway if we then just use the pick to fill the same hole.

Chubb I don't really see going for more than a 2nd unless someone is willing to overpay. I'm not exactly sure what the numbers say but eye test shows he gets good pressure at times on the QB but rarely ever hits. He's pretty good blocking the run but not elite. I guess that's my general vibe on him is he's good not great. There's a reason he hasn't looked elite since that injury or not being opposite of Von.

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

I mostly agree with what has been said, but if we can get a 2 for Juedy we take that and run away laughing. With the position becoming easier to transition due to the college schemes and Juedy showing that it doesn’t matter how sharp your routes are if you drop the ball and refuse to fight for contested balls. Throw in his unwillingness to block in the run game and I’m on board for moving on now while people still incorrectly think his issues are QB related. 
 

if our next coach thinks that we need a speed guy, that second from the Juedy trade could get us either Josh Downs or Jalin Hyatt both of whom have shown better hands and willingness to fight for the ball.

[paul-mac]

It made me laugh seeing pictures of George Paton, Rob Walton, Greg Penner and Carrie Walton Penner drinking in the pub I go to most weeks after work.

[Broncofan]

Damn our TE D is really vulnerable now.  Love Kareem but in space it’s an issue.  PJ Locke needs to step up given how much we’ll use 3 safeties. 
 

 

[BullsandBroncos]

Our offense is at least entertaining in a terrible way

[MontanaBronco]

Every week I have a slight bit of optimism that the offense will put some drives together. Every week I die a little more inside.

[1234567]

20 minutes ago, MontanaBronco said:

Every week I have a slight bit of optimism that the offense will put some drives together. Every week I die a little more inside.

Nah mate. Take heart, we’re witnessing the death of the Hackett era today. Maybe the next coach will actually know how to run an offense.