WindyCity Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 34 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said: Unless Claypool comes in and just goes off from jump, this situation screams to me to be one for a short extension after this season. Add a year or 2 years to his deal at like $10M per or so (that’s MVS/Russell Gage type money from this past offseason) with a hefty percentage guarantee attached to it. Still a UFA at 26 or 27. Let him know financially you think he’ll be a key piece of the future while allowing him to cash in big time in short order if he ends up being the centerpiece of the passing attack. I think you are underestimating the Kirk deals impact. I doubt Mooney or Claypool sign extensions for 10/season. I think 16-18 is more likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 12 hours ago, WindyCity said: I think you are underestimating the Kirk deals impact. I doubt Mooney or Claypool sign extensions for 10/season. I think 16-18 is more likely. I think at the same time you are overestimating the Kirk deal. Its an albatross, sure agents will try to use it as leverage but nearly all GMs will ignore it when looking to sign second tier receivers. And as soon as it’s ignored for one cycle, and everything is reset, we will just point and laugh at it. The cost of Receivers is going up, no doubt. I don’t think Claypool is signing up for more years at this point. I think we see how the Mooney/Claypool dynamic plays out. We have the Franchise Tag in 2024 for one if needed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 2 hours ago, StLunatic88 said: I think at the same time you are overestimating the Kirk deal. Its an albatross, sure agents will try to use it as leverage but nearly all GMs will ignore it when looking to sign second tier receivers. And as soon as it’s ignored for one cycle, and everything is reset, we will just point and laugh at it. The cost of Receivers is going up, no doubt. I don’t think Claypool is signing up for more years at this point. I think we see how the Mooney/Claypool dynamic plays out. We have the Franchise Tag in 2024 for one if needed. 16 million has been the standard for non-elite WRs for a while. Robert Woods and Kupp, before he was a star, signed for 16. Sammy Watkins signed for 16. With 1s making 24… I expect guys who are upper level #2s to ask for 16-18. #3 guys are getting 10. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 13 minutes ago, WindyCity said: 16 million has been the standard for non-elite WRs for a while. Robert Woods and Kupp, before he was a star, signed for 16. Sammy Watkins signed for 16. With 1s making 24… I expect guys who are upper level #2s to ask for 16-18. #3 guys are getting 10. Definite inflation happening, particularly in WR market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 24 minutes ago, WindyCity said: 16 million has been the standard for non-elite WRs for a while. Robert Woods and Kupp, before he was a star, signed for 16. Sammy Watkins signed for 16. With 1s making 24… I expect guys who are upper level #2s to ask for 16-18. #3 guys are getting 10. True that these amounts are raising with the cap as well, but I didnt realize you we talking full AAV (agent numbers) I thought you were saying they were actually going to be getting that salary in year 1. Thats what true Top WRs get, not this level of guy. Sammy's deal you are referencing is from a different world basically, and they were hanging onto the hope that he was a Star level. Bobby is NEVER going to see that $16m AAV, plus he has a bit of a strange deal And Kupp outplayed that deal immediately and they tore it up. My point was that Kirk is a guy who was possibly closer to a #3 than a #1, and the Jags went crazy. While Agents will try to use that for guys like Darius Slayton and Noah Brown, GMs are going to dismiss it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 23 hours ago, WindyCity said: I think you are underestimating the Kirk deals impact. I doubt Mooney or Claypool sign extensions for 10/season. I think 16-18 is more likely. The caveat for the lower AAV in my suggestion was that most of it be guaranteed, and it was specific to Claypool (I think DM gets more if for no other reason than that what he is and how he does his thing is more of a known to this organization). What I wqs suggesting was basically adding a DJ Chark level prove it year to the end of Claypool’s existing rookie deal before we reach the point of actually having to do so as a show of good faith in the player’s future. If Claypool balls out in 2023 before that year even comes due then that year probably gets rolled up into a much more lucrative longer term contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, AZBearsFan said: The caveat for the lower AAV in my suggestion was that most of it be guaranteed, and it was specific to Claypool (I think DM gets more if for no other reason than that what he is and how he does his thing is more of a known to this organization). What I wqs suggesting was basically adding a DJ Chark level prove it year to the end of Claypool’s existing rookie deal before we reach the point of actually having to do so as a show of good faith in the player’s future. If Claypool balls out in 2023 before that year even comes due then that year probably gets rolled up into a much more lucrative longer term contract. I doubt he would take it. He might take a couple of years at 13-15 million like Johnson did in Pitt. That would be well below his market value. Compared to players like MVS. I think if Claypool looks good and plays the rest of the season like he has in the past… we will begin negotiating extensions for Mooney and Claypool at 16-18 million a year. I am not sure if that locks either down, but I think that will be the plan. Edited November 3, 2022 by WindyCity Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 8 hours ago, StLunatic88 said: True that these amounts are raising with the cap as well, but I didnt realize you we talking full AAV (agent numbers) I thought you were saying they were actually going to be getting that salary in year 1. Thats what true Top WRs get, not this level of guy. Sammy's deal you are referencing is from a different world basically, and they were hanging onto the hope that he was a Star level. Bobby is NEVER going to see that $16m AAV, plus he has a bit of a strange deal And Kupp outplayed that deal immediately and they tore it up. My point was that Kirk is a guy who was possibly closer to a #3 than a #1, and the Jags went crazy. While Agents will try to use that for guys like Darius Slayton and Noah Brown, GMs are going to dismiss it. I think the #s in the WR market are pretty set #1-24+ #2-16-18 #3-10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 42 minutes ago, WindyCity said: I think the #s in the WR market are pretty set I think you are missing my point. That AAV, which is basically funny money. I’m lookin g at real dollars and actual cap hits. The things that actually impact the team. Not the banners that agents get to hang Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 3 hours ago, StLunatic88 said: I think you are missing my point. That AAV, which is basically funny money. I’m lookin g at real dollars and actual cap hits. The things that actually impact the team. Not the banners that agents get to hang What guarantees do you think these guys are going to accept? Russell Gage got 20 million 6.6/year Kirk got 37 9.25/year My guess is that to get Mooney and Claypool done you are going to be closer to the 9 million mark of guarantees/year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 Hunter Renfrow did a 2 year 32 million deal with 15 guaranteed to tack on to his rookie deal. I could see them taking a shorter deal in that range. Especially Mooney who hasn’t made as much as Claypool. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 2 hours ago, WindyCity said: What guarantees do you think these guys are going to accept? Russell Gage got 20 million 6.6/year Kirk got 37 9.25/year My guess is that to get Mooney and Claypool done you are going to be closer to the 9 million mark of guarantees/year. Hence… 1 year added on at around $10M, basically all guaranteed? Meet in the middle type move? This obviously assumes Claypool doesn’t come in and completely go off for the next 2 months. Remember, Claypool isn’t exactly walking into a situation where he’s likely to put up huge numbers for the rest of the year. He doesn’t know the offense. Doesn’t know the QB. He’s now in an offense that throws about 25 times a game, and the QB already has a favorite target and it’s not him. There’s a pretty good chance heading into the offseason that Claypool doesn’t have a ton from his half season here to be looking for top 2 WR money from the FO. (And again, I’m talking about Claypool only - Mooney’s situation is different). A deal like the one I proposed will probably require a showing of good faith and projection from Poles too when compared to Claypool’s Bears body of work come February 2023. Poles: “Our proposal - a 1 year extension for 2024 where we give you a signing bonus that quintuples your 2023 earnings and effectively insulates you against a 2023 severe injury causing you to missing a potentially miss out on a payday all together. Then, we put you in a top 2 WR role for 2023 with a QB whose best traits align REALLY well with what you do best, to best set you up for success. And, if we were right about you, we probably tear this thing up again in 12 months and give you a cartoonishly large amount of money next offseason. In exchange? You get MVS pay for a year instead of Christian Kirk’s totally out of market money. BUT, you get that money even if you suck or lose a leg. We’re gonna make you really rich. Once we do, we want to show us why we should make you way more rich.” Claypool isn’t gonna hold out. This is THE shot for him. He takes it? Cool. He doesn’t and bets on himself and does great? Then we either pay a premium rate to retain him in 2024 that we don’t have to pay him in 2023 (when we’ll still have absurd cap space btw). He bets on himself and is average or bad? Then we let him go and replace him with someone who we hope can be what we think Claypool can be. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 3 hours ago, WindyCity said: Hunter Renfrow did a 2 year 32 million deal with 15 guaranteed to tack on to his rookie deal. I could see them taking a shorter deal in that range. Especially Mooney who hasn’t made as much as Claypool. Renfrow also signed his deal coming off a career year and a Pro Bowl appearance. Claypool won’t be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 7 hours ago, WindyCity said: He might take a couple of years at 13-15 million like Johnson did in Pitt. Johnson’s last 2 years: 2021: 88/923/7 2022: 107/1161/8 What’s Claypool’s leverage to ask for that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskieBear Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 8 hours ago, AZBearsFan said: Johnson’s last 2 years: 2021: 88/923/7 2022: 107/1161/8 What’s Claypool’s leverage to ask for that? the fact that we traded a 2nd round pick for him. there is a portion of his leverage right there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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