How does prime Todd Gurley compare to current-day RBs?

[jrry32]

2 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

That makes it even easier, then. I’ll take Chubb + [insert generic 3DB] over Gurley + nobody. 

Cool. You're taking your elite player off the field on a good percentage of downs. I think that undermines the impact he has. And his limitations in the passing game limits what you can do with him when he's on the field.

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I’m interested to see how you’ve come to this conclusion. Is it largely based on me not having the same opinion as you?

Well, yes. If we had the same opinion, we hopefully wouldn't be debating. 😂

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*Compare their peak production when Chubb is in a timeshare and barely plays over 50% of the snaps most seasons, on a pedestrian team that we can agree got put in less running situations, and Gurley’s playing time between 81%-86%.* No doubt the usage still doesn’t balance out exactly the same because of Gurley’s utilization in the passing game, but that’s not exactly an honest comparison. Chubb’s timeshare split has way more to do with having Kareem Hunt than it does him being an exhausted, bumbling idiot on 3rd down. Unfortunately (for Chubb’s bulk production), his backup wasn’t…Malcolm Brown. It was a Pro-Bowler in his prime.

You're making my point, my friend. Chubb loses a lot of snaps being taken off the field on passing downs. I don't disagree that Kareem Hunt eats even more into his snaps, but still, even if he didn't have Kareem, he would still be playing probably ~20-25% less snaps than a HB like Gurley.

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0.3 YPT difference between the two despite Gurley getting more than three times the amount of targets and averaging 10+ yards per reception…really displays the difference between the two on the ground.

That's true. Gurley averaged 4.8 YPC on the ground. Chubb averaged 5.4 YPC. But the passing production still happened and is quite sizable. You're losing a good bit of that by not having a more skilled pass catcher.

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The bigger knock on Chubb is that if you gave him Derrick Henry amount of touches, it’s questionable whether his all-time efficiency remains. It’s a fair question, but it’s impossible to prove a negative, just like it’s impossible to prove how much better Chubbs’ numbers would be in a better offense.

All true. And he'd probably produce more as a receiving HB in a better offense. The guy doesn't have bricks for hands. He's capable of catching screen passes and making plays.

[Soko]

50 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Cool. You're taking your elite player off the field on a good percentage of downs. I think that undermines the impact he has. And his limitations in the passing game limits what you can do with him when he's on the field.

And his all-time ability as a runner, his status as a rare home run threat on the ground, and his better ball protection, make him quite valuable. I’ll take that over Gurley’s threat in the passing game.

50 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Well, yes. If we had the same opinion, we hopefully wouldn't be debating. 😂

Seems backwards, though. Disagree with me -> not understanding the value, when it should be not understanding the value that leads to the disagreement. 

50 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

You're making my point, my friend. Chubb loses a lot of snaps being taken off the field on passing downs. I don't disagree that Kareem Hunt eats even more into his snaps, but still, even if he didn't have Kareem, he would still be playing probably ~20-25% less snaps than a HB like Gurley.

Fair, I didn’t realize even Henry and rookie Zeke are still only going in for ~70%.

50 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

That's true. Gurley averaged 4.8 YPC on the ground. Chubb averaged 5.4 YPC. But the passing production still happened and is quite sizable. You're losing a good bit of that by not having a more skilled pass catcher.

Agreed. I think we just have a fundamental different POV on Chubb’s value as a runner vs Gurley’s value as a receiver/blocker. 

The way I view it, there’s the CMC/David Johnson types that can go and actually play WR. Then there are guys like Gurley/Saquon that are capable of moonlighting out there and present obvious value in/out of the backfield. Behind that, there are the guys like Fournette or Jacobs, that are solid players on third down but aren’t bringing much more to the table than the fact that they don’t have stone hands on simple routes out of the backfield. There’s obvious overlap in there. But I view Chubb in that last category, and I’m more comfortable fielding an offense that doesn’t have a feature back on third down but has a special guy threatening you on the rest. JMO.

50 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

All true. And he'd probably produce more as a receiving HB in a better offense. The guy doesn't have bricks for hands. He's capable of catching screen passes and making plays.

My fantasy team wishes this were the case…

[jrry32]

6 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Agreed. I think we just have a fundamental different POV on Chubb’s value as a runner vs Gurley’s value as a receiver/blocker. 

The way I see it is this, Sean McVay's system utilizes what he calls the "illusion of complexity." That style of offense relies on the alignments, starts of plays, and personnel looking similar from snap to snap with minor differences that are difficult for the defense to spot within the first second or two of the ball snapping. It forces guys to play slower, and if they do try to guess, it puts them at risk of being burned by a minor variation in the play.

It's hard not to notice that the Rams offense hasn't been nearly as effective since Gurley's play fell off. IMO, a big part of that is Gurley's complete skillset played a huge role in making the offense so hard to defend. Having a HB like Gurley allows you to not tip your hand on plays while also giving you a massive weapon in both the running and passing games.

Would Chubb be great in this offense? Absolutely. Do I think he matches Gurley's impact? No. Because Gurley was such an effective movable chess piece that it allowed McVay a lot of flexibility in using his "illusion of complexity." It's also why I was not remotely surprised when the Rams made a strong play for Christian McCaffrey. McVay has been looking for that dynamic three-down HB for years. It makes his system so much harder to defend.

You're a Patriots fan, right? You've spent years watching the Patriots sub in passing-down specialists at HB like James White. I'm going to assume that has probably colored your perspective on this issue. You're used to a platoon and know that a guy like James White can be a major weapon too. I don't disagree. But in McVay's system, a true three-down HB has a lot more value than platooning guys with skillset limitations.

[Soko]

14 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

The way I see it is this, Sean McVay's system utilizes what he calls the "illusion of complexity." That style of offense relies on the alignments, starts of plays, and personnel looking similar from snap to snap with minor differences that are difficult for the defense to spot within the first second or two of the ball snapping. It forces guys to play slower, and if they do try to guess, it puts them at risk of being burned by a minor variation in the play.

It's hard not to notice that the Rams offense hasn't been nearly as effective since Gurley's play fell off. IMO, a big part of that is Gurley's complete skillset played a huge role in making the offense so hard to defend. Having a HB like Gurley allows you to not tip your hand on plays while also giving you a massive weapon in both the running and passing games.

Would Chubb be great in this offense? Absolutely. Do I think he matches Gurley's impact? No. Because Gurley was such an effective movable chess piece that it allowed McVay a lot of flexibility in using his "illusion of complexity." It's also why I was not remotely surprised when the Rams made a strong play for Christian McCaffrey. McVay has been looking for that dynamic three-down HB for years. It makes his system so much harder to defend.

You're a Patriots fan, right? You've spent years watching the Patriots sub in passing-down specialists at HB like James White. I'm going to assume that has probably colored your perspective on this issue. You're used to a platoon and know that a guy like James White can be a major weapon too. I don't disagree. But in McVay's system, a true three-down HB has a lot more value than platooning guys with skillset limitations.

Learn something new everyday. 

Yes, I’m a Pats fan but we have Stevenson displaying some skill so I’ve grown to appreciate the skill set…