Lunatics First Mock of the Year

[StLunatic88]

This is obviously just for fun, were so far out, with so much evaluation to go, but it just feels like the right time to throw onw out with everyone else.

Starting Cap Space: $119 Million

• Ive seen our remaining 2022 Cap Space anywhere between $8-$12m, which would be our Rollover for 2023. I dont feel like digging into that yet, so Ill just call that as what will cover our Draft Class.

Roster Cuts

• Trevor Siemian QB - $2m Cap Savings
  • These cuts have nothing to do with saving money (obviously not needed), but as nice of a story that the Northwestern kid backing up in Chicago is, he just doesnt do anything for me. If we had to have him in, it wouldnt look like a rec league team is the best think I can say about him. I like atleast the possibility of some upside in a backup, especially when you arent Super Bowl contenders. If this, and a corresponding move, doesnt happen this offseason, its not a big deal.
• Al-Quadin Muhammad DL - $4m Cap Savings
  • If he was doing anything at all, Id probably keep him around. But hes just a pylon out there. And not one single person should be taking a victory lap here. When he was signed, everyone just went "sure, that makes sense". And somehow on his way up I-65, and $4m later he just forgot how to play football? Again, if he turns this around for the next 9 games, and is productive, Id keep him as a rotational/backup, because we dont need the $4m, but alot needs to be done to get there

Extension

• Jaylon Johnson CB - 5 years $95m ($13m '23 Cap)
  • This is something we should get done sooner, rather than later, as the CB market is just going to keep going up, up, up. I firmly believe that Jonson is a true Top CB, and it was extremely apparent this year, as the defense was night and day different when he is out there. He is the prototype for a corner in Flus' defense, and its going to be very hard to replace him while also finding another CB. Jaire and Ward just reset the CB market at $20-21 AAV, so slotting in right behind them seems likely here. But we make up for that a bit by pushing the Guarantees higher, nearly $60m with the $25m signing bonus, and basically the first three years salary. Lock him in, eat the Cash payments now before Fields possibly needs to be paid.

Free Agency Period

• Restricted Free Agents - Let Them Walk
  • I can not in good conscience give more money to Sam Mustipher, even an Original Round tender is like $2.5m to keep them around. If he doesnt get picked up elsewhere and wants to stick around on the Practice Squad (if he even can?), sure why not. But we can not give him any more real money, and definitely not put him back on the field in any real way
•  N'Keal Harry WR - 1 year $3m ($3m)
  • They are just starting to get him integrated into the offense, and I think they really like what he can bring. But also does Claypool completely overshadow him? They didnt give up much for him, but I can see them wanting to get alittle more out of that move than just 10 games. We overpay slightly to just to get it done, but keeping a bigger target, who can block and still has plus attributes is who we should be filling out the WR room with (still think he could be used out of the backfield as well). Its only a 1 year as Harry is probably banking on getting into a scheme, and then going to make his 2/3 year deal in 2024
• Khari Blasingame FB - 2 year $6m ($2.5)
  • Surprisingly he has been very good for this offense. I feel like there are more dynamic guys we could go after, but why mess with a good thing at a spot like FB? This is alittle less than Ingold got last year, seems like fair compensation, get it done. Anything to make life easier on Fields.
• Armon Watts DT - 2 years $5m ($2m)
  • I dont love alot of what the DL is doing these days, but I actually think Watts is a solid rotational guy. Hes going to get over exposed due to the lack of talent we have there, but going forward he could be a nice piece. Nothing too exciting, but you need these unsung building blocks as well. I am letting every other Free Agent walk; some like ESB, but Harry makes him redundant. I love Monty but he should try to get someone to pay him. The only one who might change my mind the rest of the season is Morrow, and what he does shifting after we traded Roquan.

 

• Drew Lock QB - 2 years $5m ($2m)
  • Yes, alittle of my Mizzou homerism is showing, but I still think the kid has some real talent in there. Hes also probably looking to rehab alittle after not being able to beat out Geno, and Im not sure with some of the other options on the market and some real options in the Draft that he is going to be a hot commodity this offseason. But my thought here is, if we have to keep incorporating Fields legs in this offense, the chances he has to miss time keeps going up. And in that case, at least Lock would make it fun to watch.
• Jamaal Williams RB - 2 years $10m ($4m)
  • I have mentioned him here before in previous RB conversations, and I think he is a much more likely option than shooting for the stars on Saquon or even dropping the bag for Pollard. To me, RB is the LAST thing you add to your offense, that goes for either a high Draft Pick or a big money Free Agent. Right now we are still setting everything up in this offensive scheme, settling Fields in and building up the OL. Not to mention, Herbert still has the potential to be that type of guy. He has run very well at times this year, and Id like to see what we have there before moving on. We might have a Pollard-esque guy without the massive price tag in our own backfield already. Onto Williams though, he brings the veteran savvy, intensity and leadership that is lacking with the offense right now, and I would hope some of that rubs off on Fields. He also will do the things we really need him to, which is pass block and be the thunder half of he duo when called upon.
• Foster Moreau TE - 4 years $30m ($5m)
  • Some of you might raise an eyebrow here, and I get it, but I think this is a very savvy type of signing to make for this offense. Many want to go get Gesicki, who is really just another WR, but Moreau fits what the identity of this team is more likely to be. He is really just a better version of what they are using Kmet for right now. A dominating blocker, a big target underneath, and he is an ascending talent in my mind. I think he has what it takes to be a True #1 TE for a team, a guy who can be on the field in any package, and his prowess as a weapon should only grow. This would also allow Kmet to move into a more Move TE situation, while he is still a god blocker, and both on them on the field would give us massive advantages in the Run game, it could also open him up more to get out as a target. You might clutch your pearls seeing 4/30, but in reality its more like a 2/15, as it would be $6m signing, and only 5/6m paid out for each of the first 2 years with nothing keeping us tied to him beyond that.
• Elgton Jenkins OL - 5 years $90m ($18m)
  • I said it on one of the previous mocks posted, this is the one Free Agent signing I absolutely LOVE. And its his versatility that really make his such a good signing. I agree that his best spot is LG, and long term, thats where he will line up. But right now, he could hold down he RT spot while we still have Whitehair doing well in this scheme. I think the criticism on Jenkins at RT has been alittle over blown, not to mention its only getting better as he gets healthier from that ACL. But to succeed, you need your best 5 Lineman on the field, and this is the way to do it. So pay Elgton like on of the Top OL, and line him up where needed for now. He will settle at LG once we move off Whitehairs contract (very likely after 2023) and that gives us another year to find the correct RT. Im hopeful that a future OL of Jones-Jenkins-XX-Jenkins-XX would be nasty, especially if we can find cheap dradft picks to fill those other two spots in the next 2 years. 
• Greg Little OL - 1 year $1.5m ($1.5m)
  • Alot of you guys are on this Andre Dillard train, and Im here to tell you, as the backup to Braxton Jones, that is an absolute pipe dream. Dillard is going somewhere where they are telling him that they expect him to be the Starter. Not saying he is guaranteed the job, but expected. Unless Jones completely derails the rest of this season, its most likely that the team will Expect him to be the Starting LT next September. Thats where you have to look into lesser guys as backups. Little is absolutely nothing to write home about, but when he has been forced into action this year for Miami, he didnt completely mess his pants. He also wasnt good, Im not saying that. This is not a situation of "we can fix something to make him good" its just having a veteran backup that can be put in to give us a known floor for the unit. The actually backup LT would be the also signed Free Agent in Jenkins, but Little would then become a RT in that situation (assuming its during the week, and not on game day)
• Bobby Okereke LB - 3 year $22m ($5m)
  • We need to completely overhaul the LB corps. Unless Morrow really steps up moving positions, we dont have anyone on the roster that should be seeing major playing time in 2023. Maybe Sanborn can be a guy, but if we can add some actual talent there behind a DLine that we are actually rebuilding too, we can have a very good defense, very quickly. Okereke is the MLB we should be brining in, he knows this scheme, and can bring some stability for the next few years. 
• Marcus Davenport DE - 5 year $115m ($27m)
  • The Saints picked McCoy over Davenport, I think Id rather be trying to pay McCoy but Marcus is a darn good DE. He should be lining up pretty close to the Max Crosby deal, and the thing we can do to lure him here is front load some money so he gets a larger year one and two salary than most teams can give due to all of that cap space we have. It also allows us to lower a few of those middle base salaries when we are hopefully paying Fields. Davenport does come with a bit of an injury concern, but he can absolutely lock down one of our Ends while we work with Gipson and Robinson on the other side. Not too much to get into here, its just a very solid signing at a premium position. 
• Derrick Nnadi DT - 2 year $9m ($4)
  • Really just looking to bolster that DL rotation here. Hes not a name that many will think about, but I think you put him with Watts as the two main NTs and they should be able to hold down the fort. Another non-flashy signing, but we just need to continue to bolster the middle of the roster with these type of guys.
• Tyquan Lewis DL - 2 year $10m ($2.5)
  • This is a very different signing than like a week ago when I was looking at him. Its basically the same injury (at the same time) as what happened to him last year. So we give him a similar deal, with the potential that if he stays healthy and is producing, he can make a good chunk in 2024. If not, we cut him, take the small cap hit and move on. But his versatility he has, able to line up at both DE and UT to be a playmaker. Hoping that he can be healthy, this is just another vet to strengthen the middle of the roster.
• David Long LB - 2 year $11m ($4m)
  • Yes, Im looking at adding another Veteran LB. Long is not the H/W/S/L guy that we are looking for in this scheme, but he is something we need while we look for that guy, and thats a reliable tackler who can be good in coverage. This is basically the replacement for Morrow if he doesnt pan out the rest of the season, but if we re-sign Morrow, then this wont be necessary. Long will still be coveted by Tennessee, which is why he costs a bit more than Morrow did this year. 

 

2023 NFL Draft

Im projecting us to win another 3-4 games this year, and we end up at like Pick 9. We feel good about Fields going forward, so its all about amassing more talent here. I also still believe we will move on from Borom, he just doesnt fit in the scheme, and we can add a future asset with more control. Borom seems like he's a lineman that Belichick would like, and we send him to New England, for Carolina's 6th that they own.

R1: Bryan Bresee DT Clemson

• I do like Justin Jones, hes a solid+ UT in this scheme, but if we can upgrade on him we for sure will. And the more I go back and watch Bresee, especially against some of the best competition (Georgia, Ohio St) he still pops off the screen. He has great athleticism, he is so disruptive, and all of it is basically off of raw talent and with a less than stellar body makeup. He gets penetration better than most IDL prospects Ive watched, but he doesnt always finish it off. I think with a real system that sets him up for success, plus refining his pass rush repertoire, he could be a monster. He also just needs to learn how to finish, and his numbers would line up with his talent. The one big issue with Bresee is the medical, now we arent going to be drafting him if he doesnt check out, but just the setbacks and other kinda strange stuff that has happened this year will push him down a bit. Had he been completely clean bill of health, after draft workouts he may have shot right up with Carter, but his history its always going to push him down to the level below. He very well could be the key that completely unlocks this defense.

R2: Olusegun Oluwatimi OL Michigan

• Ok, so I absolutely LOVE Oluwatimi, and I think he would be great in this scheme. He has reliable balance, with some underrated athleticism, quickness and range to make the most out of a ZBS. He is a general out there on the field, with great control of the rest of the OL, and handles everything in front of him. Hes not a road grader thats going to blow guys off the line, but thats not really what Im looking for here. But he can anchor in Pass Pro, not getting bullied into the backfield. And in the run game, his understanding of angles and stong hands for the punch/latch make him a great fit. I thought this about him when he was at Virginia, but seeing him bove to the Big Ten, and continue to do it against more closely to NFL level lineman, and even get better at it, is what convinced me he needs to be our next Center. 

R3: Zay Flowers WR Boston College

• At one time he was challenging for Top 25 status, but I think he has fallen off pretty precipitously from there. Some of that isnt his fault, that BC team is very disappointing, but he also hasnt been able to get any bigger, which will limit him. But man he is a threat in the open field, he can get deep on just about anyone, and you always take a chance on a big play threat (i.e. Velus). So with both Claypool and Harry in the fold for now, you can get other types of guys in the room. He is not a blocker, but his shiftiness, balance and footwork, man I really like to see him run routes and get open. Plus he has some great hands, I would really like him as an understudy to Mooney, and either he can replace him if we dont sign him, or having two guys like that would be hard for a team to cover, especially when youre other option is a monster like Claypool.

R4: DeMarvion Overshown LB Texas

• It was funny, one of you brought him up recently while I was looking at him for this mock. He is another guy that once was projected as a 1st rounder, but that fizzled when he didnt come out for the 22 Draft. And honestly I think that is what is keeping him higher on mocks around the internet, because he is a name people know. While I think he could be a great fit for finding that WLB for Flus, he really doesnt fit alot of defenses with that slight frame that he has. Ive got him around that Top 100 prospect mark right nbow (actually have him like 110) so I think he will be here. I get it if you dont, but his lack of size and the more read and react style of his is what push him down. We can take advantage of that because his coverage skills are great, and he is a willing tackler, it is just going to be about getting him in the right situation.

R4: Bryce Ford-Wheaton WR West Virgina

• He had one breakout game that got us talking about him, but has been disappointing since. But while taking a gamble on the smaller Flowers earlier, we go back to the large/strong WR. Guy runs good routes, and is a natural hands cather, and is a haul to get down. But he doesnt separate much and plays softer than his size suggests at times (I blame the BigIIX). He doesnt really block, but everything about him says he should be able to. Really just taking a gamble on measurables and a good pair of hands here. 

R5: Julius Brents DB Kansas St

• I really like his traits, seems to fit what Flus wants in an outside CB, especially if he really sees Gordon as the NB. He plays the run like a Strong Safety, and has the talent to be a playmaker on the ball ion coverage. Definitely needs footwork help, but if you get these traits on Day 3, its a gamble Ill always take. The coverage and responsibilities he is given at KState seems like it would translate well to this defense. If we are paying Johnson top end dollars on the other side, we will need to find a cheap gem across from him.

R5: Donte Bull OL Fresno St

• It is so fun to watch Bull, dude is massive out there. He has the ability to dominate guys, and seems like he just needs some guidance on how to hone the natural skills he has. He is just so long that it makes up for his underwhelming footwork alot in pass pro, which could be a huge plus for a RT. But he is the "dancing bear" that you look for as a project, and add in that he has the ability to just bully defenders, Id like to see what we can do with him. Not expecting the quick turn around like Braxton Jones, but in a year or two he could be a real factor on the Right side of the line. Im salivating about Tevin and him just beating up DLines.

R6: Ji'Ayir Brown DB Penn St

• Just getting the band back together here. Brisker's running mate in Happy Valley, is someone I am interested in brining in to potentially one day team back up with him. Hes a big play guy, who is kind of a wild card, but does seem teachable and if you can reign that in (less penalties, not so much a "hitter" but get him to break down and tackle) he could be a nice piece in the secondary. Out the gate could be a Special Teams Ace.

R7: Randy Charlton DL Mississippi St

• Ive watched more Mississippi St than any non-fan should, and Charlton just pops off the TV to me. Guy is a tweener and could line up at DE still, but to me is more of a rotational UT who can get pressure from the inside. He is strong and nasty at the point of attack, the best way I can describe his good reps is 'violent' and thats the kind of guy I like to have at the bottom of my roster.

 

 

 

After all of that, we are still sitting with like $25m in cap space, plenty enough to make another move if theres some disgruntled superstar that becomes available. And if not, its plenty to roll over again into 2024. Speaking of, if we were to hit on all of those Free Agents, and wanted to keep all of them it would still leave us with over $80m in Cap space, prior to any roll over (before factoring in the 2023 draft class). So plenty of moves still to make into the future.

[Sugashane]

First off, I love the attention to DE, but both Davenport and Bresee scare me at the moment. Davenport hasn't looked like he did in 2021 and isn't even hitting the QB much anymore. He only has 5 QB hits to go with it, though he has a lot of pressures I believe. But he has been super injury prone too. Only played 13 games at his best so far and even has been dealing with a shoulder injury this year. Add in Bresee being MIA for the bulk of the last two seasons and we might really be putting ourselves in a bad spot. If they are healthy though they should be absolute monsters vs the run and pass.

Extending Jaylon is definitely something to do now rather than later. That's one thing I dislike about my own mock, I put it off.

Jenkins being the 2nd highest paid OG is a bit much IMO but OGs are getting their value kicked up, and will REALLY have the bar set high when Nelson gets his megadeal. Adding him and Moreau vastly improve the offense and Oluwatimi should be a significant upgrade from Mustipher. IDK if he is worth a 2nd but I havenb't watched much Michigan this year. Very happy with that.

Zay in the 3rd could be one of the steals of the draft, especially if he isn't being forced into a top 2 role early. Mooney an Claypool will take the load off him and let him develop in the Y first, then he can grow from there.

Williams is a sneaky good signing. In this FA class he will be completely overhadowed, and he complements Herbert well without being one dimensional like Howard/Cohen were. With Moreau/Kmet as the two TEs and then blockers outside NOT named Mooney or Velus he could make some significant chunk plays... Fields too actually.

 

Good work man

[Madmike90]

Like all our Mocks at this time of year there is a lot of good and a lot of bad in this IMO…

I would have zero interest in Drew Lock since I just don’t think he has it between the ears and Siemian seems to be doing a good job helping Fields…a lot of the beat guys say he had the most sideline interactions with him ahead of Getsy & Janocko who is upstairs…

Williams would be a nice move if they have plenty of faith in Herbert…

I would want no part of Little…he flat out sucks…

Davenport at that price would be a hard move to swallow…he has had one season in his career where he would have been worth that amount of money…not enough production for me…as a 1 year prove it deal for a high cap hit I would take that risk…

Nnadi would be a quality pick up…

Bresee is a beast but his health would be a concern that high…Oluwatimi would be a great pick and solidify that centre spot for years to come…Flowers I don’t see as a great fit for what we are trying to do…really like both Overshown & Ford-Wheaton…Brents fits the mould of what I suspect we will look for…Bill I don’t see as a scheme fit and reckon we look for more athletic guys…haven’t seen much of Brown or Charlton so can’t comment…

I think this offseason would without doubt help the offence but I would still be really worried about the defence.

[Sugashane]

35 minutes ago, Madmike90 said:

I would have zero interest in Drew Lock since I just don’t think he has it between the ears and Siemian seems to be doing a good job helping Fields…a lot of the beat guys say he had the most sideline interactions with him ahead of Getsy & Janocko who is upstairs…

 

To me just having a capable 3rd QB was all that was for. If Fields goes down for any amount of time we need a back up to Siemian. Unless we have a young guy developing with a really athletic profile then you just hope he is being paid to be the best scout team QB in the league. 

[Madmike90]

2 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

To me just having a capable 3rd QB was all that was for. If Fields goes down for any amount of time we need a back up to Siemian. Unless we have a young guy developing with a really athletic profile then you just hope he is being paid to be the best scout team QB in the league. 

He has us cutting Siemian.

[Sugashane]

Just now, Madmike90 said:

He has us cutting Siemian.

Ah crap, you're right. I missed that entirely. I do like Siemian more. 

[malagabears]

What would be the general feeling of signing an edge rusher like Yannick Ngakoue? He has 4 sacks this years but has averaged 8-9 sacks since 2016. 

He will only be 28 so if we sign him to a 2 year deal we can go edge rusher in round 3 or 4, unless we have a shot at a top 4 pick to get Anderson. Lord knows the front 7 is a mess in dire straits.

Edited November 7, 2022 by malagabears

[chisoxguy7]

On 11/7/2022 at 12:42 PM, malagabears said:

What would be the general feeling of signing an edge rusher like Yannick Ngakoue? He has 4 sacks this years but has averaged 8-9 sacks since 2016. 

He will only be 28 so if we sign him to a 2 year deal we can go edge rusher in round 3 or 4, unless we have a shot at a top 4 pick to get Anderson. Lord knows the front 7 is a mess in dire straits.

Many around these parts have brought his name up recently and are in favor of him as a target.