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Cwood is a nerd and so are all the Packer Favorite Prospects: 2023 Draft Discussion Thread


MacReady

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10 hours ago, MaximusGluteus said:

I agree there.  He's fast, but he doesn't have that extra top end gear.  That's the only thing I can think of that he's missing.

I'll also say that I do not in any way expect Gute to take Bijan at 15, but if he did I would understand why.  He's a player that never needs to leave the field on offense and you can do a ton with him with since he's such a good receiver.

Ok, so I watch a lot of college football but have never seen him play. (Not a Texas fan).  
His running style reminds me more of Barry Sanders how he makes guys miss who are literally within an arms length away.

Too bad we won’t touch him at 15 and he’ll be long gone before our next pick then it seems. 

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9 minutes ago, MantyWrestler said:

Ok, so I watch a lot of college football but have never seen him play. (Not a Texas fan).  
His running style reminds me more of Barry Sanders how he makes guys miss who are literally within an arms length away.

Too bad we won’t touch him at 15 and he’ll be long gone before our next pick then it seems. 

Yeah his tackle breaking ability is nuts.  I haven't found his numbers for this year, but in 10 games in 2021 he had 78, which was a 39% missed tackle rate for him.  For comparison, Kenneth Walker that year was at 33% and Breece Hall was at 31%. 

With running backs being so undervalued now it's tough to tell where he'll go.

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5 minutes ago, MaximusGluteus said:

Yeah his tackle breaking ability is nuts.  I haven't found his numbers for this year, but in 10 games in 2021 he had 78, which was a 39% missed tackle rate for him.  For comparison, Kenneth Walker that year was at 33% and Breece Hall was at 31%. 

With running backs being so undervalued now it's tough to tell where he'll go.

the track record of first round RB leading/adding to team success is not great.  

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Here's a recent history on running backs in the draft:

2022 was the first year since 2014 that a running back wasn't taken in the first round of the draft.

From 2015 through 2018, 8 running backs were taken in the first round (2 per draft), 5 of them with top 10 picks. Of those 8, only Ezekiel Elliott is under contract with his original team for 2023 (Saquon Barkley and Rashad Penny are set to become free agents).

In the three drafts from 2019 through 2021, four more running backs were taken in the first round, though none earlier than the 24th pick. While there have been mixed returns in terms of performance from these players, all four have played in a playoff game.

Edited by Sandy
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11 hours ago, squire12 said:

the track record of first round RB leading/adding to team success is not great.  

I'd imagine the track record of any single rookie player, non-QB, leading to team success is not great. 

Any bluechip caliber player performing at a high level is extremely valuable right now regardless of position. Now I'd never advocate top 10 for a RB, but if you feel like Bijan is an All-Pro caliber player, you grade him as a first rounder and feel comfortable taking him there. Plenty of teams are winning in this league right now playing defense and running the ball.

 

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18 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said:

Dude, King + Biegel >>> Watt........  *sigh*

 

The last one I was really upset about was probably James Jones instead of trading for Randy Moss.  Now, I love me some James Jones.  

IIRC, I was kind of disappointed in Datone Jones, and I wasn't super pumped for Nick Perry either.  I didn't know what a Damarious Randall was in 2015, but I came around to it.  Probably shouldn't have. Wasn't a big fan of 2018 outside of Jaire, but MVS, EQ, and Donnerson are right up my alley, so I wasn't super bummed.

I didn't/don't really like the 2020 class, thought Love was a good idea but a couple years too early.  Love AJ Dillon, but Williams and Jones worked, and wasn't a use of a 2nd.  I don't know if I had a better alternative for either player at the time, and even using hindsight, I get it.  I was underwhelmed though.  I wanted Albert O over Deguara in the third.  The 6th round OL was a good idea, and one of them is pretty good.  I did really like Jonathan Garvin and Vernon Scott though.  

I loved the 2019 and 2022 drafts though.  

I learned a lesson with Datone Jones, Damarius Randle and to some extent, Jordan Love.

If I have to come here and get "sold" on why the pick was good, it was not a good pick.

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47 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

I learned a lesson with Datone Jones, Damarius Randle and to some extent, Jordan Love.

If I have to come here and get "sold" on why the pick was good, it was not a good pick.

I look at it more of a projection issue.  Datone Jones was a tweener DE/DT and Damarious Randall was a safety in college.  Datone Jones wasn't twitchy enough to be an EDGE, but he wasn't stout enough to play DT in college.  And the Packers projected him to be able to put on 10-15 pounds, and play that 5T role.  He wasn't able to do so, and eventually got moved into an EDGE slot where he still struggled.  Damarious Randall hadn't played corner since CC.

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1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

I look at it more of a projection issue.  Datone Jones was a tweener DE/DT and Damarious Randall was a safety in college.  Datone Jones wasn't twitchy enough to be an EDGE, but he wasn't stout enough to play DT in college.  And the Packers projected him to be able to put on 10-15 pounds, and play that 5T role.  He wasn't able to do so, and eventually got moved into an EDGE slot where he still struggled.  Damarious Randall hadn't played corner since CC.

Hence the problem of GMs something thinking too much outside the box or basing their picks on projection rather than just taking the guy with the higher floor. That mentality largely describes Gute , and he's going to hit on some guys in that boom or bust category but miss on a lot of others where the safer pick was there. 

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2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I look at it more of a projection issue.  Datone Jones was a tweener DE/DT and Damarious Randall was a safety in college.  Datone Jones wasn't twitchy enough to be an EDGE, but he wasn't stout enough to play DT in college.  And the Packers projected him to be able to put on 10-15 pounds, and play that 5T role.  He wasn't able to do so, and eventually got moved into an EDGE slot where he still struggled.  Damarious Randall hadn't played corner since CC.

I look at it more simplistically.  

If I have to come here to be sold on why so and so was a good pick, then it was not a good pick.  Good picks do not need to be sold.

For every rule, there is an exception.  And perhaps Love is that exception, we really do not know. 

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2 hours ago, HighCalebR said:

You had to be sold on gary tho.

Only kind of.  I knew that Gary was risky.  I didn't like risky for where he was taken.  But after seeing that board, he was one of two guys that made sense to me and that other guy did not fit, physically, what we like in an EDGE.

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4 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

I'd imagine the track record of any single rookie player, non-QB, leading to team success is not great. 

Any bluechip caliber player performing at a high level is extremely valuable right now regardless of position. Now I'd never advocate top 10 for a RB, but if you feel like Bijan is an All-Pro caliber player, you grade him as a first rounder and feel comfortable taking him there. Plenty of teams are winning in this league right now playing defense and running the ball.

 

How many 1st round RB made the super bowl with the team that drafted them?  Made the conference championship game with the team that drafted them?

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23 minutes ago, squire12 said:

How many 1st round RB made the super bowl with the team that drafted them?  Made the conference championship game with the team that drafted them?

K.  I'm going to try this and not look it up.

Marcus Allen comes to mind.

Who was that RB for Pittsburgh in 2010 when we beat them?  The one that fumbled, was it something like Mendenhall?

I think Barry Sanders made a conference championship game once, maybe?

Emmit Smith is as obvious as it gets.

Thinking Adrian Peterson got to a conference championship game.

Jamal Lewis with Ravens.

I think Shaun Alexander got a Super Bowl with the Seahawks.

Didn't the Panthers have two great RB's with Cam Newton for that Super Bowl?  Deangelo Williams was maybe one of them?

Reggie Bush won a SB with the Saints.

Addai with the Colts in that Super Bowl?

And now...I'm tired.  Not certain about all of those, but I think there are plenty.

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11 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

K.  I'm going to try this and not look it up.

Marcus Allen comes to mind.

Who was that RB for Pittsburgh in 2010 when we beat them?  The one that fumbled, was it something like Mendenhall?

I think Barry Sanders made a conference championship game once, maybe?

Emmit Smith is as obvious as it gets.

Thinking Adrian Peterson got to a conference championship game.

Jamal Lewis with Ravens.

I think Shaun Alexander got a Super Bowl with the Seahawks.

Didn't the Panthers have two great RB's with Cam Newton for that Super Bowl?  Deangelo Williams was maybe one of them?

Reggie Bush won a SB with the Saints.

Addai with the Colts in that Super Bowl?

And now...I'm tired.  Not certain about all of those, but I think there are plenty.

this is going back to 2007.  15 years 

 

Year No. Round Pick overall Name Team College
2021 1 1 24 24 Najee Harris Steelers Alabama
2021 2 1 25 25 Travis Etienne Jaguars Clemson
2020 1 1 32 32 Clyde Edwards-Helaire Chiefs Louisiana State
2019 1 1 24 24 Josh Jacobs Raiders Alabama
2018 1 1 2 2 Saquon Barkley Giants Penn State
2018 2 1 27 27 Rashaad Penny Seahawks San Diego State
2018 3 1 31 31 Sony Michel Patriots Georgia
2017 1 1 4 4 Leonard Fournette Jaguars Louisiana State
2017 2 1 8 8 Christian McCaffrey Panthers Stanford
2016 1 1 4 4 Ezekiel Elliott Cowboys Ohio State
2015 1 1 10 10 Todd Gurley Rams Georgia
2015 2 1 15 15 Melvin Gordon Chargers Wisconsin
2012 1 1 3 3 Trent Richardson Browns Alabama
2012 2 1 31 31 Doug Martin Buccaneers Boise State
2012 3 1 32 32 David Wilson Giants Virginia Tech
2011 1 1 28 28 Mark Ingram Saints Alabama
2010 1 1 9 9 C.J. Spiller Bills Clemson
2010 2 1 12 12 Ryan Mathews Chargers Fresno State
2010 3 1 30 30 Jahvid Best Lions California
2009 1 1 12 12 Knowshon Moreno Broncos Georgia
2009 2 1 27 27 Donald Brown Colts Connecticut
2009 3 1 31 31 Beanie Wells Cardinals Ohio State
2008 1 1 4 4 Darren McFadden Raiders Arkansas
2008 2 1 13 13 Jonathan Stewart Panthers Oregon
2008 3 1 22 22 Felix Jones Cowboys Arkansas
2008 4 1 23 23 Rashard Mendenhall Steelers Illinois
2008 5 1 24 24 Chris Johnson Titans East Carolina
2007 1 1 7 7 Adrian Peterson Vikings Oklahoma
2007 2 1 12 12 Marshawn Lynch Bills California
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Just now, squire12 said:

this is going back to 2007.  15 years 

 

 

Year No. Round Pick overall Name Team College
2021 1 1 24 24 Najee Harris Steelers Alabama
2021 2 1 25 25 Travis Etienne Jaguars Clemson
2020 1 1 32 32 Clyde Edwards-Helaire Chiefs Louisiana State
2019 1 1 24 24 Josh Jacobs Raiders Alabama
2018 1 1 2 2 Saquon Barkley Giants Penn State
2018 2 1 27 27 Rashaad Penny Seahawks San Diego State
2018 3 1 31 31 Sony Michel Patriots Georgia
2017 1 1 4 4 Leonard Fournette Jaguars Louisiana State
2017 2 1 8 8 Christian McCaffrey Panthers Stanford
2016 1 1 4 4 Ezekiel Elliott Cowboys Ohio State
2015 1 1 10 10 Todd Gurley Rams Georgia
2015 2 1 15 15 Melvin Gordon Chargers Wisconsin
2012 1 1 3 3 Trent Richardson Browns Alabama
2012 2 1 31 31 Doug Martin Buccaneers Boise State
2012 3 1 32 32 David Wilson Giants Virginia Tech
2011 1 1 28 28 Mark Ingram Saints Alabama
2010 1 1 9 9 C.J. Spiller Bills Clemson
2010 2 1 12 12 Ryan Mathews Chargers Fresno State
2010 3 1 30 30 Jahvid Best Lions California
2009 1 1 12 12 Knowshon Moreno Broncos Georgia
2009 2 1 27 27 Donald Brown Colts Connecticut
2009 3 1 31 31 Beanie Wells Cardinals Ohio State
2008 1 1 4 4 Darren McFadden Raiders Arkansas
2008 2 1 13 13 Jonathan Stewart Panthers Oregon
2008 3 1 22 22 Felix Jones Cowboys Arkansas
2008 4 1 23 23 Rashard Mendenhall Steelers Illinois
2008 5 1 24 24 Chris Johnson Titans East Carolina
2007 1 1 7 7 Adrian Peterson Vikings Oklahoma
2007 2 1 12 12 Marshawn Lynch Bills California

 

CEH, Sony Michel, Gurley, Donald Brown,  Mendenhall, Peterson are the ones that I recognize in a quick rundown.

 

 

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