MrBobGray Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 12 minutes ago, skibrett15 said: 1) Great points, good post. 2) This part is true to an extent, but also overblown. Lots of Good QBs ALSO miss these throws routinely. I won't comment on the mechanics and such, but throwing the football in the NFL is not a handoff, no matter how basic the passing play there is a decent chance of incompletion. As fans, we often fixate on the OMG easy misses, and we don't watch full games of players like Mac Jones and Baker Mayfield missing these throws all the time. Also, the accuracy decline is much more a new phenomenon than one that has been developing over the past few years. Basically, this is a 2022 issue. These stats are really good indicators. There is also a composite stat of Y/A and Completion Percentage which you might be aware of: CPOE -completion percentage over expectation. It summarizes your points above, and tracks the actual completion weighed against the expected completion percentage based on the depth of target. Love this post. I'm vaguely familiar with lots of the advanced stats, but I'll admit I hadn't really played around much with CPOE to see how that showed things. Something interesting to note to just continue the discussion: From 2010 to 2014, Rodgers had a CPOE of 5.9, best in the league, with an average depth of target of 8.6 yards. From 2015 to 2018, Rodgers had a CPOE of 0.7, 30th in the league over that time period, with an average depth of target of 8.4 yards. From 2019 to 2021, Rodgers had a CPOE of 4.5, 3rd in the league, with an average depth of target of 8.3 yards. Over that same period, Davante Adams in 2020 had the best season by a receiver in terms of passer rating when targeted (136.0) and was was 7th overall across the entire time span at 117.9. He was one of only two receivers to catch > 300 passes (but was one of four targeted > 400 times). Among receivers who caught at least 200 passes over that span, he had the second best drop rate (2.5%) behind only DeAndre Hopkins (1.9%) But maybe most interestingly: among receivers who caught 200 passes over that time span, Adams is 12th in yards before catch/reception (7.3), but 4th in YAC/reception (4.9). So during the years Rodgers had a sudden unexpected renaissance, his WR1 was the 1) the most targeted receiver in the game, 2) one of the most efficient targets in the game, and 3) consistently turning relatively shorter targets into bigger gains. Now 3) doesn't really affect CPOE, but 1 and 2 certainly do, as it means more of his targets than any other QB were going to a receiver more efficient than almost any other. Adams gets very wide open very often, and to quote a site regarding CPOE: Quote A potential drawback of CPOE is that the quality of WRs targeted and their separation between defenders are significant factors in whether a pass is completed or not and these are not included in the public model. So CPOE is not a stat that can completely separate QB play from their surroundings, but it is a valuable stat that tells us much more about how accurate a QB is than raw Completion % alone. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegas492 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Like, this may not be the right spot to post this, but I'm going to anyway. This is a ****ty season. It isn't getting any better. We are all smart enough to understand those facts. What sets this board apart from others is this....respect. I don't agree with all of you, all the time. That doesn't mean that I'll attack every post and bring up old crap to make a point. I don't care if you support the front office or hate them. Same for Jordan Love or Aaron Rodgers. Or MLF. Make a well thought out post about said disappointment and you will still have my respect even if I don't agree with you. It's a crappy year. Let's please NOT be crappy to each other. 14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, skibrett15 said: Put it another way, @incognito_man. If Love is announced the starter, what will the betting line do? Vegas leverages public sentiment. The public thinks Aaron Rodgers is much better than he actually is and that Jordan Love is worse than he actually is. It would (correctly) decrease GB's odds, but it would overshoot. *Edit: Aaron Rodgers is certainly a better QB than Jordan Love right now. BUT I think it's very possible that, a Jordan Love led team in 2022 is BETTER in week 16 than an Aaron Rodgers led dumpster fire team. Edited November 8, 2022 by incognito_man 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikebpackfan Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 13 minutes ago, vegas492 said: Like, this may not be the right spot to post this, but I'm going to anyway. This is a ****ty season. It isn't getting any better. We are all smart enough to understand those facts. What sets this board apart from others is this....respect. I don't agree with all of you, all the time. That doesn't mean that I'll attack every post and bring up old crap to make a point. I don't care if you support the front office or hate them. Same for Jordan Love or Aaron Rodgers. Or MLF. Make a well thought out post about said disappointment and you will still have my respect even if I don't agree with you. It's a crappy year. Let's please NOT be crappy to each other. Go to hell, jackass. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 hour ago, Pugger said: The GM and coaching staff know what they have in Love. Is Love showing the promise that Rodgers did after a couple of years? I'm gonna guess not because otherwise why would they extend Rodgers? Again, he just won two MVPs. The fact he hasn't been traded to anyone is better evidence that the league doesn't think he's good so he probably isn't over keeping Rodgers. I understand the logic, I just think it's overstated. My point is, I personally believe, they could think he is a future top ten QB AND still keep Rodgers after the last two seasons. I don't think it's anywhere near the indictment of Love people want it to be, but they hated the idea of the pick from the beginning so there's confirmation bias built in there. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Guy Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 The answer to the OP, they held onto an arrogant prick for a QB, 2 or more years too long. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NFLGURU Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 14 minutes ago, Old Guy said: The answer to the OP, they held onto an arrogant prick for a QB, 2 or more years too long. And won the NFL MVP in both those 2 years too long and want replace him with an inexperienced guy who led the NFL in preseason interceptions. GREAT!!!! 🙄 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Guy Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 14 minutes ago, NFLGURU said: And won the NFL MVP in both those 2 years too long and want replace him with an inexperienced guy who led the NFL in preseason interceptions. GREAT!!!! 🙄 My bad, I thought the TEAM was playing for a Lombardi. I didn't realize they were only playing to get Rodgers a couple more MVPs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 23 hours ago, Old Guy said: My bad, I thought the TEAM was playing for a Lombardi. I didn't realize they were only playing to get Rodgers a couple more MVPs. I love that he knows Love lead the ******* preseason in INTs lol. My God. Why would anyone know that? Nor care. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Norm said: I love that he knows Love lead the ******* preseason in INTs lol. My God. Why would anyone know that? Nor care. Lions lead the preseason in wins the year they went 0-16. Anyone who seriously references a preseason... anything...has their voice immediately disregarded for me forever. Edited November 9, 2022 by incognito_man 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, incognito_man said: Lions lead the preseason in wins the year they went 0-16. Anyone who seriously references a preseason... anything...has their voice immediately disregarded for me forever. I'm not going to look but I'm guessing he threw about as many passes as anyone did too. I'm not even defending his play either. If Rodgers led I'm sure they would think that was really bad and scary, oh wait, he doesn't play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Guy Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Norm said: I'm not going to look but I'm guessing he threw about as many passes as anyone did too. I'm not even defending his play either. If Rodgers led I'm sure they would think that was really bad and scary, oh wait, he doesn't play. Pretty sure Rodgers leads the league in red zone INTs this year after last week alone. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pugger Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 On 11/8/2022 at 5:08 PM, Norm said: Again, he just won two MVPs. The fact he hasn't been traded to anyone is better evidence that the league doesn't think he's good so he probably isn't over keeping Rodgers. I understand the logic, I just think it's overstated. My point is, I personally believe, they could think he is a future top ten QB AND still keep Rodgers after the last two seasons. I don't think it's anywhere near the indictment of Love people want it to be, but they hated the idea of the pick from the beginning so there's confirmation bias built in there. Can you name another GM who traded away a reigning league MVP? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Pugger said: Can you name another GM who traded away a reigning league MVP? You're confused I think. I'm saying you cannot trade him after that. That's my entire point. It doesn't mean they obviously think Love is trash. It means they think they had the two time MVP and cannot let that go. That was my entire point. IDK how to summarize this anymore, but keeping the back to back MVP doesn't mean it's purely because his backup isn't good. That's all I'm saying. Edit: anything regarding trades in the post you replied to was about trading Love, not Aaron. Edited November 10, 2022 by Norm 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pugger Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 On 11/10/2022 at 1:07 PM, Norm said: You're confused I think. I'm saying you cannot trade him after that. That's my entire point. It doesn't mean they obviously think Love is trash. It means they think they had the two time MVP and cannot let that go. That was my entire point. IDK how to summarize this anymore, but keeping the back to back MVP doesn't mean it's purely because his backup isn't good. That's all I'm saying. Edit: anything regarding trades in the post you replied to was about trading Love, not Aaron. OIC. My bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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