Jump to content

Skibrett's 6ers Style Rebuild - Keep Mason Crosby Edition


skibrett15

Recommended Posts

4 hours ago, hitnhope said:

Campbell and Douglas worked out very well.  Why did we have to go to street free agent for a CB after all of the draft picks spent at DB?

Your bias is evident here. You criticize Gute for not making moves and when you admit he made good ones you somehow turn it into a fault too. Gute signed Douglas after having drafted exactly two CBs, Alexander and Jackson. You rant on about the heart of the team being from the previous regime and then want to blame Gute for a decade of bad DB picks? Give me a break.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 11/7/2022 at 12:54 PM, skibrett15 said:

If you are going to comment with specifics, you must include who you would/wouldn't sign instead/how you would include it in the cap.

The premise
: a Sam Hinkie style 76ers tank and rebuild over the 2023-2024 seasons

Reasoning/Justification: Packers have a lot of void years on guys like Amos, dean lowry, etc.  This is the NFL not the NBA so the rebuild can happen faster.  2025 gives 2 drafts to build up young players for a first competitive season, with the goal of being a playoff team in 2026, and contending in 2027.  That means you have 4!!! years to find the QB, and the outside chance that Love is already him.

The Philosophy:  The team will be as competitive as possible with the players provided.  The players provided will not be adequate to win NFL games at a sustainable rate.  First round picks in 2023 will be dealt for multiple first round picks in 2024/25/26 if possible.  2nd round picks will always be dealt for future 1sts.  Good rookie players we draft in 2023 will be dealt in the 2024 season for picks if it's good value.  Outside of QB, great players in 2023 are not as important as great assets because they will become expensive players in 2025/26 which is when we want to be ascending, not plateauing!

The Macro Plan: 2023 and 2024 will be years of pain.  The moves outlined (except Rodgers, he needs to be dealt asap or the dead cap goes up and up) can be done any time the value feels right.  For example, with a player like Bakh, I think waiting for the 2023 trade deadline might make sense to see if he might heal and then deal him when healthy.

The goal is to mostly clear the books for 2025, and use any cap space in 2023/2024 on short term deals which are front-loaded.  We are happy to spend useless non-competitive cap on players who do 1 of 2 things

1) result in a 2025/26 comp pick

2) become a tradeable 2024-2025 NFL player because of said frontloaded contract.

The Micro Plan:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tools/roster/green-bay-packers/2023/eef584dfb5af1a997a429c43f10bd2b7/

 

Here are the major moves, resulting in 28M in cap space 2023 with $96M in dead cap.  There are other minor moves similar to Amos that I won't detail.

Move 1: Trade Aaron Rodgers.  Or he retires.  It's one or the other and the cap implication is the same.  Costs $9M to trade or retire.  If you trade him, you can get a 1st and a 2nd.  Ideally you get picks in the 2025/26 drafts rather than the current ones.  That is when the team you traded him to will be fully cooked and bad.

Move 2: Trade David Bakhtiari.  You trade him for whatever you can get.  Maybe you get nothing.
Move 3: Trade Preston Smith.  Still a fine player, you can get a 4th for him, probably more from a contending team after an in-season injury.
Move 4: Trade Aaron Jones.  His contract is rough, but if CMC gets that haul, I think Jones has real value around the league, even at $20m salary.  You have to hold him until the deadline, but there's no reason to cut Jones when you don't really care about 2023/2024 cap space.  Worst case you maybe recoup a 2026 comp pick once he expires in 2025.  You have 2 years to deal him.  Be patient here, but he's a RB and will be playing, so his fuse is burning.
Move 5: Trade Rashan Gary.  Brian Burns got a 2x 1st round pick offer this trade deadline.  Gary will be 28/29 and expensive, and we don't have the cap space in 2023/24 to frontload him.  This is another 2023 deadline guy for me.  Good player, just doesn't fit with the timeline and his value is pretty high as a guy who we haven't committed to but has league value as a top player.  The injury is rough to this plan, but if you get him playing next year then deal him, I think it's a happy ending.
Move 6 : Amos released (this is just procedural but its in the link above so it's here.)  he has a void contract, he costs 7.9M for nothing, he will not be on the team and isn't under contract.  May as well accelerate these into 2023 rather than spread it over 4 years.
Move 7: Trade Darnell Savage.  Jabrill Peppers got traded, Savage can too.  You do this for pretty much anything because you need the 8M cap savings.  Has to happen early in the league year.  Worst case you cut him, but there is no cap savings with a cut.   Maybe you split the difference and eat half the salary in the trade.
Move 8: Release Amari Rodgers

The Young Core:

These are who you are counting on for long term:

Jaire Alexander, Eric Stokes, Quay Walker, Devonte Wyatt, Christian Watson, Josh Myers, Zach Tom, Romeo Doubs. Plus an assortment of TBD guys.  Alexander is a trade candidate too - he's already been paid, isn't likely to play to that contract, and might fetch a huge haul.  But you don't give him up easy and you're more than happy to keep him. 

In total there are 37 players on the roster, and you added 3-5 extra picks from the trades.  There are several other highly paid players who need handling, but are less clear-cut trade options because of the salary implications, which brings me to:

 

The Question Marks:

These are guys who have value, but are harder to move, or are guys you might just let expire and collect comp picks on:

1) Rasul Douglas.  You can and should trade 'Sul if you can.  But he's pretty cheap and under contract for 2 more years.  Might be a guy you move on from in 2024 rather than this offseaon.

2) Kenny Clark. You only save 3m by cutting/trading clark, and if you do it post 6/1 you still have 13M dead in 2024.  If you get a godfather offer for him, make it.  But keeping this defense somewhat together during the rebuild is very possible, and Clark would be the only highly paid guy who isn't 100% part of your 2025 and beyond plan.   Even then, he *could* be, so Clark is on here because I don't think it's a slam dunk he's not part of the future even though he is in that age range with Gary.

3) De'Vondre Campbell.  This guy is a bit of an albatross with his contract.  Costs money to cut now, but doesn't cost much to just wait and cut him later.  Maybe he can recover his value more by playing than by getting out of the way.  Possible to trade him in 2024, or release him then.  He'll be gone, just a question of when for me, and I don't have a good answer.

The Signings:

All of the 2023 and 2024 signings should be either 1-2 year deals, or deals with no 2025/2026 commitments beyond base salaries.  This makes them tradeable to any team with any cap situation during the season or offseason.  You only have $28M in 2023, so 1-2 guys who can net future assets is the idea, or 1 guy internally who you feel really really good about.  Not even sure who that would be, but maybe an OL like Myers.

Rest of the team are rookies, minimum vets, and 1-2 guys just above the minimum who are 24 or 25 years old but had a bad rookie deal for whatever reason that you want to take a flier on.

SO the major outcome is you are set up for a huge amount of cap space in 2024 which you want to use to do the front-loading thing so that you have the same major cap space in 2025 when you are looking to contend.  110M in 2024 is very achievable with this plan, and this is where the fun begins.

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Packer_ESP said:

Your bias is evident here. You criticize Gute for not making moves and when you admit he made good ones you somehow turn it into a fault too. Gute signed Douglas after having drafted exactly two CBs, Alexander and Jackson. You rant on about the heart of the team being from the previous regime and then want to blame Gute for a decade of bad DB picks? Give me a break.

I think you are the one being biased.  I gave Gute credit for the moves but you seem to feel that he is the only GM that makes these kind of pick ups.  In addition you really ought to be honest and accurate when you pretend to post a fact.   If you only count the first 2 rounds of the draft you miss the points I have been making regarding Gute's shortcomings.  His later picks aren't working out.  Look at previous Packer drafts for later round picks being successful.  Lange, Sitton. Hyde, Finley,Jamaal Williams, Aaron Jones, B Martinez, Fackrell, Corey Linsley etc.  These are all later round picks that were successful in the few years prior to Gute.   Find me the list for Gute over the last 5 years.

BTW a list of DB's selected by Gute which is greater than the 2 you pretend were a complete list.

CB's and safeties drafted:

Jaire

Josh Jackson

Savage

Kadar Hollman

Vernon Scott

Stokes

Shemar Jean-Charles

Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, hitnhope said:

I think you are the one being biased.  I gave Gute credit for the moves but you seem to feel that he is the only GM that makes these kind of pick ups.  In addition you really ought to be honest and accurate when you pretend to post a fact.   If you only count the first 2 rounds of the draft you miss the points I have been making regarding Gute's shortcomings.  His later picks aren't working out.  Look at previous Packer drafts for later round picks being successful.  Lange, Sitton. Hyde, Finley,Jamaal Williams, Aaron Jones, B Martinez, Fackrell, Corey Linsley etc.  These are all later round picks that were successful in the few years prior to Gute.   Find me the list for Gute over the last 5 years.

BTW a list of DB's selected by Gute which is greater than the 2 you pretend were a complete list.

CB's and safeties drafted:

Jaire

Josh Jackson

Savage

Kadar Hollman

Vernon Scott

Stokes

Shemar Jean-Charles

You don't get it .. it doesn't matter what you think cuz Gute, Packer brass and the board of directors disagree with you.  He will be the GM no matter what you or I think.  You are beating a REALLY DEAD HORSE on this.  Carry on with your thoughts though .. the dead horse doesn't care.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, coachbuns said:

You don't get it .. it doesn't matter what you think cuz Gute, Packer brass and the board of directors disagree with you.  He will be the GM no matter what you or I think.  You are beating a REALLY DEAD HORSE on this.  Carry on with your thoughts though .. the dead horse doesn't care.

I get it perfectly fine.   If the Packer brass and BOD want to keep him. they are making a mistake.   Is that something we cannot talk about?   Am I supposed to read the drivel that makes excuses for what is taking place and not respond?  The problems all stem from me responding to the loser mentality of making excuses instead of understanding what has gone wrong?

I'm beating the dead horse but you keep resurrecting the discussion with posts like the above.  History will show who is correct.    

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, hitnhope said:

I think you are the one being biased.  I gave Gute credit for the moves but you seem to feel that he is the only GM that makes these kind of pick ups.  In addition you really ought to be honest and accurate when you pretend to post a fact.   If you only count the first 2 rounds of the draft you miss the points I have been making regarding Gute's shortcomings.  His later picks aren't working out.  Look at previous Packer drafts for later round picks being successful.  Lange, Sitton. Hyde, Finley,Jamaal Williams, Aaron Jones, B Martinez, Fackrell, Corey Linsley etc.  These are all later round picks that were successful in the few years prior to Gute.   Find me the list for Gute over the last 5 years.

BTW a list of DB's selected by Gute which is greater than the 2 you pretend were a complete list.

CB's and safeties drafted:

Jaire

Josh Jackson

Savage

Kadar Hollman

Vernon Scott

Stokes

Shemar Jean-Charles

Yes, I forgot Stokes, my bad. Hollman and Jean-Charles were 6th round flyers aimed more at ST than actually playing CB. As for why safeties would be relevant to the need of getting a CB free agent, I have no clue, you tell me. Remember, your question was:

Quote

Why did we have to go to street free agent for a CB after all of the draft picks spent at DB?

Wikipedia has the answer, though it's not the one you were looking for (because Gute is terrible!!!!!!):

Green Bay Packers[edit]

The Green Bay Packers signed Douglas off the Cardinals' practice squad on October 6, 2021, following injuries to starting cornerbacks Jaire Alexander and Kevin King.[25]

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, coachbuns said:

You don't get it .. it doesn't matter what you think cuz Gute, Packer brass and the board of directors disagree with you.  He will be the GM no matter what you or I think.  You are beating a REALLY DEAD HORSE on this.  Carry on with your thoughts though .. the dead horse doesn't care.

No, GUTE MUST BE FIRED so that we can fire the next GM in two years after he doesn't have a team of all pros with pro bowlers as backups.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Packer_ESP said:

Yes, I forgot Stokes, my bad. Hollman and Jean-Charles were 6th round flyers aimed more at ST than actually playing CB. As for why safeties would be relevant to the need of getting a CB free agent, I have no clue, you tell me. Remember, your question was:

Wikipedia has the answer, though it's not the one you were looking for (because Gute is terrible!!!!!!):

Green Bay Packers[edit]

The Green Bay Packers signed Douglas off the Cardinals' practice squad on October 6, 2021, following injuries to starting cornerbacks Jaire Alexander and Kevin King.[25]

Can you guys stop with this guy yet, this is the most he's ever posted here bc you're all feeding into his bull****.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is really confusing.

  • MLF is an awful coach who is out of his depth in the NFL
  • Gutey is a terrible GM who can't draft
  • TT was good at the start of his reign but by the end was struggling badly and holding the team back
  • Murphy needs to be sacked and is destroying the team because of some reason nobody has explained
  • Rodgers has been earning over 12% of the cap each year making it impossible for a team to win games
  • Rodgers has been awful since 2018

Presumably we must have been 0-16 every year.  But according to Wikipedia, we have been 13-3 the last season

If you listen to people here, Gutey has been terrible but got away with being terrible because the team was built by TT.  Despite the fact that everyone was complaining about TT and wanted a change. MLF is out of his depth as HC but was bailed out by Rodgers. A guy who earns more than 12% of the cap making it impossible for the team to win and has seen seemingly half the form arguing they were the first to point out how bad he is and they were the first to hate him. 

Maybe you are all talking out your backside and it is the NFL - losing seasons happen.  This place is going to be nuts when we have multiple losing seasons. 

Reality is the front office didn't get the roster right. The defence wasn't as good as they thought it was going to be and the WR replacements for Adams haven't been as effective as they hoped. They have over relied on Rodgers to cover up other deficiencies. Rodgers isn't what he was but its clear that the thumb has been a problem and may well have been the difference between a losing season and a winning season (I don't think another 13-4 was ever on the cards).

Its not perfect and there are lessons to be learnt. That need to be learnt. But as a collective they have shown to be competent over last 3 years and deserve the chance to put things right.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, mikemike778 said:

This is really confusing.

  • MLF is an awful coach who is out of his depth in the NFL
  • Gutey is a terrible GM who can't draft
  • TT was good at the start of his reign but by the end was struggling badly and holding the team back
  • Murphy needs to be sacked and is destroying the team because of some reason nobody has explained
  • Rodgers has been earning over 12% of the cap each year making it impossible for a team to win games
  • Rodgers has been awful since 2018

Presumably we must have been 0-16 every year.  But according to Wikipedia, we have been 13-3 the last season

If you listen to people here, Gutey has been terrible but got away with being terrible because the team was built by TT.  Despite the fact that everyone was complaining about TT and wanted a change. MLF is out of his depth as HC but was bailed out by Rodgers. A guy who earns more than 12% of the cap making it impossible for the team to win and has seen seemingly half the form arguing they were the first to point out how bad he is and they were the first to hate him. 

Maybe you are all talking out your backside and it is the NFL - losing seasons happen.  This place is going to be nuts when we have multiple losing seasons. 

Reality is the front office didn't get the roster right. The defence wasn't as good as they thought it was going to be and the WR replacements for Adams haven't been as effective as they hoped. They have over relied on Rodgers to cover up other deficiencies. Rodgers isn't what he was but its clear that the thumb has been a problem and may well have been the difference between a losing season and a winning season (I don't think another 13-4 was ever on the cards).

Its not perfect and there are lessons to be learnt. That need to be learnt. But as a collective they have shown to be competent over last 3 years and deserve the chance to put things right.

Wikipedia vandalism, obviously.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 11/24/2022 at 11:33 PM, hitnhope said:

He is a poor drafter and has not built complete teams.   The major reason for his winning record is players procured by his predecessor.

He has fouled up the QB situation from his start, consistently doing things that hurt the team with his QB decisions.  

We aren't going anywhere under his guidance.  Pull the scab off now.

Reminder that people were unhappy with TT and wanted a change by the end of his reign.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Norm said:

Can you guys stop with this guy yet, this is the most he's ever posted here bc you're all feeding into his bull****.

My take will prove to be true.   The only post of yours that has shown any football insight at all is the statement that the NFL is random.

You call it BS because it doesn't fit your simplistic view of the game and you would rather follow posters beating a dead horse that the problem with the Packers is AR.   The MVP over the past 2 seasons is the chief reason that we haven't won.  Do you not understand how dumb this forum's prevalent take really is?   Ignoring the fact that if AR really isn't running the offense than who's fault is that?   AR forced the Packers to give him the last contract?   Packers leadership had no choice in any of these matters?   Just a list of bad excuses.

I see now people such as yourself are attributing all kinds of thoughts to me that I have never made.  I never advocated for Wolf or TT to be fired yet somehow you make it like I want GM's fired every 2 years.  Like I dont understand that every draft pick will not turn out as hoped.   That is completely unreasonable to expect them all to be good picks.   It is also unreasonable to accept that no later picks become key contributors over a 5 year span.

I called my shot and will be done with this if people don't post bad responses.  If a bad take is posted about my stance I will respond to it.

Edited by hitnhope
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, hitnhope said:

My take will prove to be true.   The only post of yours that has shown any football insight at all is the statement that the NFL is random.

You call it BS because it doesn't fit your simplistic view of the game and you would rather follow posters beating a dead horse that the problem with the Packers is AR.   The MVP over the past 2 seasons is the chief reason that we haven't won.  Do you not understand how dumb this forum's prevalent take really is?   Ignoring the fact that if AR really isn't running the offense than who's fault is that?   AR forced the Packers to give him the last contract?   Packers leadership had no choice in any of these matters?   Just a list of bad excuses.

I see now people such as yourself are attributing all kinds of thoughts to me that I have never made.  I never advocated for Wolf or TT to be fired yet somehow you make it like I want GM's fired every 2 years.  Like I dont understand that every draft pick will not turn out as hoped.   That is completely unreasonable to expect them all to be good picks.   It is also unreasonable to accept that no later picks become key contributors over a 5 year span.

I called my shot and will be done with this if people don't post bad responses.  If a bad take is posted about my stance I will respond to it.

I will take my post and go home if I think the post is bad.  LOL .. what a piece of work ... you will never be done with this post as many bad takes will still be forthcoming. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...