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Week 10 GDT Broncos (3-5) @ Titans (5-3)


jolly red giant

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The Titans are coming out of an OT loss to the Chiefs in the Sunday night game - the Broncos out of the bye-week after flying back from London. 

The Titans leaned very heavily on Derrick Henry against the Chiefs - Willis only completed 5 passes across the entire game for a net 57yds passing. In contrast Mahomes threw a total of 68 pass attempts - completing 43 for a total of 446 yds. Excluding Mahomes, the Chiefs rushing attack gained a total of 14 yds on 13 rusing attempts.

From the Broncos perspective - they go into the game with Chubb now traded - but he had relatively little impact on defence during the London game. The Achilles heel of the Broncos will be tested by Derrick Henry who likely will have another 100+yd game.

On the offensive side - will the Broncos passing game be able to rack up similar passing numbers as Mahomes did on Sunday or was the improved offensive game in the second half in London an aberration rather than a progression.

In contrast to the season so far - I can see some scoring in this game - and the Broncos to win 28-24.

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The Titans are good. We don’t typically do well in early games. I’m not confident.

 

 

I think this is a game we must win to have any chance to get our season back on track.

 

I think it’ll be similar to the Vegas trip. Henry will run all over us like Jacobs and Etienne both did already this season.

 

24-17 Titans. Hope I’m wrong. 

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If Ryan Tannehill plays, we're probably deservedly a 5+ point favorite dog.

But he has a very bad HAS - so that could be Malik Willis.  That would turn the game into a MUCH closer affair.   

We probably still will struggle to stop the run game (esp since Willis' speed creates more running lanes for Derrick Henry), but it certainly caps TEN's O output.  The problem though, as always, is two-fold - the TEN D, esp that DL, is legit.    And the Titans are probably one of the best coached teams around.    So they rarely beat themselves, take unnecessary penalties, and run optimal game management.  Meanwhile, we have Hackett as HC and our penalties/game management issues that come with it.

To top it off, we have an early East Coast game.   Ugh.

BUT.....

The Titans playing on a short week AND playing in OT (the TEN was on the field for almost 42 mins) - that has a major hangover effect the next week.   So we actually have a chance.

If we were better in the coaching/game management/play-calling area, I'd like our chances more.   As it is.....well, it's better than if it wasn't a question Tannehill was playing.  And don't get me wrong, Tanny isn't this amazing QB - but OMG Malik Willis is nowhere near game ready.    I'm not kidding when I say from a pass game perspective, I'm not sure he's better now than Kendall Hinton was for us in terms of readiness to play (run game, he offers a ton though).  Still, it's a sorry state of affairs when a Malik-Willis, rawer-than-sushi rookie QB could very well be playing us - and we'll still be dogs.   But it certainly opens the door.

Edited by Broncofan
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On 11/7/2022 at 5:40 PM, Broncofan said:

If Ryan Tannehill plays, we're probably deservedly a 5+ point favorite dog.

But he has a very bad HAS - so that could be Malik Willis.  That would turn the game into a MUCH closer affair.   

We probably still will struggle to stop the run game (esp since Willis' speed creates more running lanes for Derrick Henry), but it certainly caps TEN's O output.  The problem though, as always, is two-fold - the TEN D, esp that DL, is legit.    And the Titans are probably one of the best coached teams around.    So they rarely beat themselves, take unnecessary penalties, and run optimal game management.  Meanwhile, we have Hackett as HC and our penalties/game management issues that come with it.

To top it off, we have an early East Coast game.   Ugh.

BUT.....

The Titans playing on a short week AND playing in OT (the TEN was on the field for almost 42 mins) - that has a major hangover effect the next week.   So we actually have a chance.

If we were better in the coaching/game management/play-calling area, I'd like our chances more.   As it is.....well, it's better than if it wasn't a question Tannehill was playing.  And don't get me wrong, Tanny isn't this amazing QB - but OMG Malik Willis is nowhere near game ready.    I'm not kidding when I say from a pass game perspective, I'm not sure he's better now than Kendall Hinton was for us in terms of readiness to play (run game, he offers a ton though).  Still, it's a sorry state of affairs when a Malik-Willis, rawer-than-sushi rookie QB could very well be playing us - and we'll still be dogs.   But it certainly opens the door.

 

If we had a decent O - we'd actually have the TEN D in the best setup to play them than any other time in the season.   The fact TEN D is playing on a short week and was on the field for 87 plays (that's not a typo, either - EIGHTY-SEVEN)....there's a reason why teams who lose in OT do so poorly the next week.   It's not quite the same, but teams playing in OT and losing on Sunday b4 are 15-30 ATS and 22-23 as a home favorite straight up (the .500 record sounds like a coin flip overall, but when you look at the ATS records, it means heavy favorites often win but fail to cover, while closer dogs lose more than win).    Now, the trend has been for 10+ years, so it's not a direct prediction, but the edge is pretty clear, and even more so when we have a bye we're coming off.   Still, it's only a trend, and it's meaningless if we don't execute on O.  

Still, if Willis plays QB, then we're probably more live than any other week @ TEN because of the short-week vs. bye, and even moreso how worn out the TEN D is likely from SNF OT.   And yet we're still likely a dog.    But it's probably the best chance we'd ever see this season playing the Titans.

Edited by Broncofan
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There aren't many East Coast early games I'd back us in, and this isn't one for sure.

Our Run Defense has been really leaky of late and we've relied on an excellent RZ Defense to hide this. Well, stopping a man as big as Derrick Henry with a dual threat QB in the RZ is just so difficult.

Given the time of possession a run based team is capable of putting up, our Offense is going to have to produce yards and points without being given the chance to have a lot of possessions. I've seen very little from this Offense to make me confident they are capable of doing this.

I could see it being a close game for 3 quarters before a tired Defense finally caves.

If we can't force 3rd and 5+ consistently on Defense, we lose this game.

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5 hours ago, broncos67 said:

Run defense needs to show up. If they don't, this is a loss. Plain and simple. 

One thing I will say though, if we can get out to some sort of lead it could be massive. Start fast and force Tennessee to play catch up. Especially if Willis is starting.

If the Titans are up more than 7 pts in the 2H, it's over.    If they're down 7+ pts anytime in the 2H, they're likely not coming back.

Our run D and our O's ability to stay on the field are the basically the keys to the game.   We stay on the field on O, the TEN D's fatigue from MNF and the 87 plays vs. KC will show itself.    The fact we're coming off a bye gives a big edge there as well - but only if the O can actually control TOP.  Doesn't have to be even a 35-25 edge - but especially in the first 3Q, we need to be at least 50-50.    If not, well, all those advantages from last week vs. our bye are moot.

The big Q on O is who plays C - I hope it's Glasgow.    I know he's not as much of an asset in the run game, but his experience and pass pro should be far better than Wattenberg - and with Jeffrey Simmons on the inside, having as good pass pro as possible, esp with our inept run game, is essential.

For the run D, besides the usual suspects, having Browning & Cooper back would be a plus for run support over Bonnito, while getting  Sterns to help provide 3rd S run support (over PJ Locke) will help too - because I think we're going to see TEN try to run it 65-70 percent of the time.  

EDIT - forgot Sterns on IR...doh.

 

Edited by Broncofan
Forgot about IR & Sterns - bye week hangover lol
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Our O still has major issues but not playing Simmons is a massive break.  And the Titans D will be down other bodies.   They still do a great job stopping the run - but the pass rush and pass coverage takes a big hit.   
 

Wilson and the WR’s / Dulcich need to have a big game.    No Hamler means Jeudy / Hinton spend the most slot work - where TEN is vulnerable.     Things to watch for. 
 

- Kendall Hinton +1700 TD on DK.  Taking my shot there lol. 

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The titans breaking out the Tim Tebow offense. A QB with no accuracy, WRs who can separate, going against a top passing D? They will complete single digit passes. 
 

Coming off of the bye? The broncos just need to put up 17 and they should win. If the broncos don’t win this game the Seahawks will have a top 5 pick. 

20-14 Broncos 

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