Week 11 Football Thread: Odds on a Jimbo firing?

[beekay414]

3 hours ago, mse326 said:

2016 OSU went over Penn St who beat them and won the B1G

Penn State had 2 losses. Think he means a 1 loss non-conference champion getting in over a 1 loss conference champ.

[MWil23]

48 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

Penn State had 2 losses. Think he means a 1 loss non-conference champion getting in over a 1 loss conference champ.

The Committee memeing a 2 loss SEC champ if LSU wins could be glorious, and I'm here for it.

[mse326]

56 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

Penn State had 2 losses. Think he means a 1 loss non-conference champion getting in over a 1 loss conference champ.

I was just responding to his point about only 2 non conference winners. Also missed 2020 ND who was ACC for that year.

But even @CWood21 point while technically true isn't really that strong. From what I can tell, and I absolutely may have missed an instance, there are only 2 non-2020 seasons where a non-conference champion had only 1 loss going into the bowls. 2015 OSU and 2017 Wisconsin. 2020 we sort of have to disregard because that was the year Covid reaked havoc on the schedule. There were 5 teams in that case but only Texas A&M really played a full set of games with 9 (Indiana had 7 games and then 3 Pac 12 teams with like 5). But for completeness I'll consider Texas A&M.

So that is only 3 instances where there was even a team with just the 1 loss non-conference champ criteria met; and that is before we look at whether they had an argument as a better team to any of the conference champs. 

2015 the 4 that made it were Clemson and Alabama who were definitely seen as the clear top 2 teams, Mich St who beat OSU and won the B1G. There weren't any arguments over those three. The 4th was Oklahoma, that there is an argument. 

2017 the 4 that made it were Clemson, Oklahoma, UGA, Alabama. We can "discount" Alabama from this argument since the weren't a conference champ. And no body was arguing that Wisconsin was better than the other 3. The isn't really a comparison here for them to be in

2020 the 4 that made it were Alabama, Clemson, OSU, ND. We can "discount" ND since they weren't conference champ. Now like I said this season is a bit weird. There was no argument for being in over Alabama. Clemson had 1 loss, which was to ND, that they avenged in the ACC Cham game. And pretty much everyone thought they were better than A&M. So there really wasn't much of a comparison there. The big argument in this year was with OSU who was undefeated but only played 6 games because of Covid. While there are strong arguments in this one, I think we can agree this is sort of one off issue that really isn't comparable to what we are talking about.

So in all the years of the CFP there is only 1 time there was even an argument. I don't think we can draw any conclusions off of 1 instance especially when we've seen that conference championships are not the be all end all. And I still think the OSU PSU is an important precedent because IIRC the chairman of the committee came out and said they thought OSU was clearly better so they didn't even really consider the conference championship or H2H. That process precedent is what is important here since I think most people would say OSU, UM, and Tenn are clearly better than USC or even TCU (though everyone agrees that if undefeated you can't leave them out).

Sorry, this post is much longer than I intended when I started

[MWil23]

11 minutes ago, mse326 said:

2015 the 4 that made it were Clemson and Alabama who were definitely seen as the clear top 2 teams, Mich St who beat OSU and won the B1G. There weren't any arguments over those three. The 4th was Oklahoma, that there is an argument. 

TBH the major issue I had that year was vaulting a 2 loss Stanford team above the 1 loss OSU team, or the year where Auburn had 2 losses and was put in the Top 4 due to SOS and quality wins (they were winning the SEC at the time). Granted, Auburn lost/lost out and was removed, but that precedent/potential precedent is still there.

If LSU beats UGA, you're going to have a firestorm on your hands.

And if OSU/UM is a close one, you're going to have some upset people there when in the past you've had 2 SEC teams make it who both had 1 loss or less, including situation(s) in which they haven't won their division/played in a conference title game.

Again, if TCU wins out it's irrelevant, but if they stumble, look out, it's going to get messy. What do you do if USC and TCU both lose and the OSU/UM game is close?

[cp0k2]

Sure, it's been an abysmal season for Texas A&M Football, but at least Aggie Nation can take solace in knowing their school did win a National Championship this year.
 

 

[mse326]

2 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

TBH the major issue I had that year was vaulting a 2 loss Stanford team above the 1 loss OSU team, or the year where Auburn had 2 losses and was put in the Top 4 due to SOS and quality wins (they were winning the SEC at the time). Granted, Auburn lost/lost out and was removed, but that precedent/potential precedent is still there.

If LSU beats UGA, you're going to have a firestorm on your hands.

And if OSU/UM is a close one, you're going to have some upset people there when in the past you've had 2 SEC teams make it who both had 1 loss or less, including situation(s) in which they haven't won their division/played in a conference title game.

Again, if TCU wins out it's irrelevant, but if they stumble, look out, it's going to get messy. What do you do if USC and TCU both lose and the OSU/UM game is close?

I personally am firmly on record as saying it should be the best 4 teams. I don't have a problem with 2 SEC and 2 Big 10 if those are the top 4 teams. You certainly consider what was done on the field to determine that though. Basically the only exception I make to that is an undefeated team in a major conference. For me unless we see one of those 4 blow up they are the best 4 teams and the only thing preventing all from going in (as my picks, not necesarilly prediction wise) is an undefeated TCU

[MWil23]

Just now, mse326 said:

I personally am firmly on record as saying it should be the best 4 teams. I don't have a problem with 2 SEC and 2 Big 10 if those are the top 4 teams. You certainly consider what was done on the field to determine that though.

Which is absolutely fine with me as well. The issue I have/have always had is consistency. One year it's "best team with the best resume", another year it's "blowout loss looks bad", another year it's a "2 losses looks bad", another year it's the "head to head", etc.

Just now, mse326 said:

Basically the only exception I make to that is an undefeated team in a major conference. For me unless we see one of those 4 blow up they are the best 4 teams and the only thing preventing all from going in (as my picks, not necesarilly prediction wise) is an undefeated TCU

100% agreed. If TCU wins out, they should be in. It's the same argument I had in 2015 when OSU didn't go. They laid an egg against MSU and lost. Ironically, if UM's punter doesn't drop the ball, OSU would have gone to the B1G Title game since MSU would have had 2 losses, but regardless, wins and losses matter at the end of the day.

[seminoles1]

52 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

The Committee memeing a 2 loss SEC champ if LSU wins could be glorious, and I'm here for it.

I can't wait for them to argue their way into 3 SEC teams making the playoffs.

[MWil23]

23 minutes ago, seminoles1 said:

I can't wait for them to argue their way into 3 SEC teams making the playoffs.

…while having an undefeated TCU left out 😂 

[seminoles1]

21 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

…while having an undefeated TCU left out 😂 

Oh, it'll be great. LSU wins out, Georgia 12-1, and Tennessee at 11-1. TCU, USC, Clemson, and UNC all lose another game and Michigan loses by 10+ to Ohio State. Alabama, Ole Miss, and FSU win out.

I could absolutely see them put 3 SEC teams in with that scenario.

[Mastercheddaar]

1 hour ago, seminoles1 said:

Oh, it'll be great. LSU wins out, Georgia 12-1, and Tennessee at 11-1. TCU, USC, Clemson, and UNC all lose another game and Michigan loses by 10+ to Ohio State. Alabama, Ole Miss, and FSU win out.

I could absolutely see them put 3 SEC teams in with that scenario.

Why stop there? Put Geo, LSU, Tenn and Bama in the playoffs. On the CFP reveal show just have the judges flipping off the camera. (being sarcastic btw). 

MC

[beekay414]

And how exactly do we determine the 4 best teams? This is why expansion is needed. Let them settle it on the field over some absurd **** like Kentucky being a quality win so therefore Team B from the SEC is obviously better than Team A from *insert any other conference*

**** like that is where I find the comedy in deciding who the best teams are. 

[mse326]

2 hours ago, beekay414 said:

And how exactly do we determine the 4 best teams? This is why expansion is needed. Let them settle it on the field over some absurd **** like Kentucky being a quality win so therefore Team B from the SEC is obviously better than Team A from *insert any other conference*

**** like that is where I find the comedy in deciding who the best teams are. 

It doesn't matter where the limit is. At some point you are at the margin and have to determine which team(s) you put in and which you leave out. How exactly do you do that if not by determining who among the contending teams you think is better? March Madness has 68 teams and 30 some are at large and there is still a ton of talk every year about the bubble teams and whether the committee got it right. Expansion, which I like, doesn't change that it just kicks it further down the list

[beekay414]

2 hours ago, mse326 said:

It doesn't matter where the limit is. At some point you are at the margin and have to determine which team(s) you put in and which you leave out. How exactly do you do that if not by determining who among the contending teams you think is better? March Madness has 68 teams and 30 some are at large and there is still a ton of talk every year about the bubble teams and whether the committee got it right. Expansion, which I like, doesn't change that it just kicks it further down the list

And that's fine. Far less concerned over leaving team #13 out than I am team #5. 

And my biggest issue is how the criteria changes yearly based on who the committee wants in. Give me a consistent criteria and not the hoop jumping they do every year. There is no consistency on why teams are where they are year after year. Lay it out and define the criteria instead of leaving it to talking points throughout the year. Set the criteria and then fit the teams in based on that criteria. Don't bend the rules to get Bama or Georgia or Ohio State or Clemson in at all costs. 

Edited November 15, 2022 by beekay414