2023 NFL Draft Thread

[AnAngryAmerican]

Since they relate, also look for us to make some big moves in FA.

We are currently projected to have $17.3m in cap space but moving on from Glasgow (+$11m), Darby (+$10m) and Edmonds (+$6m) quickly boosts figure to $44.3m. That’s at least two top-tier free agents and several good, rotational/depth guys while still banking some $$ to eventually pay PS2, who will command HUGE money. 

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Since they relate, also look for us to make some big moves in FA.

We are currently projected to have $17.3m in cap space but moving on from Glasgow (+$11m), Darby (+$10m) and Edmonds (+$6m) quickly boosts figure to $44.3m. That’s at least two top-tier free agents and several good, rotational/depth guys while still banking some $$ to eventually pay PS2, who will command HUGE money. 

The reality is what we desperately need is OL help.   Decent T’s don’t make it to FA.    IOL would be the area where we could find value.    Meinerz is the one guy we keep - and the draft should be attempting to fill 2-3 spots but not right away.     If we get 2 day 1 starters from the draft that would be a massive W.   A day 1 pick is the only one we can project should start Day 1.   
 

If we get a Day 1 starter at tackle and Day 2 IOL starter / swing guy who starts no later than Year 2 - realistically we still need at least 2-3 starter level IOL / swing G & T (again unlikely to find an actual decent T in FA unless they’re older or comes with physical flags).     We definitely have the $ to get there just keep in mind the wage scale will be eye opening for those used to the 2020-21 days.   
 

The other areas of need are IDL and a 2nd ILB ego can cover.   Fortunately ILB can be found in Rd3-4 in drafts.    IDL may be a 2nd area to hit in FA beyond OL.    
 

Day 3 we definitely should hit RB.  Have to get a RB plan B in case Javonte isn’t all the way back and it’s better to have 2 cheap RB in the top 3 regardless (bargain RB can be had next year as the FA class is insane).  

Edited November 15, 2022 by Broncofan

[grizmo78]

55 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Since they relate, also look for us to make some big moves in FA.

We are currently projected to have $17.3m in cap space but moving on from Glasgow (+$11m), Darby (+$10m) and Edmonds (+$6m) quickly boosts figure to $44.3m. That’s at least two top-tier free agents and several good, rotational/depth guys while still banking some $$ to eventually pay PS2, who will command HUGE money. 

I would be surprised if we sign two top tier FAs unless you include Dre'mont Jones as one of them. I like Jones, but his run defense does still leave a lot to be desired. Probably hot take but if I had the option, I would rather sign Daron Payne than re-sign Dre'mont. But I tend to like a stout middle that Payne and DJ Jones would provide. Regardless though, IDL is definitely a priority this offseason. 

I will be curious how we address the Darby situation. Has Mathis played well enough to be our #2 corner? Will we keep Darby? Who would we target if we do cut him? 

I agree with others that our priority should be solidifying our O-line and I hope that starts with Erik McCoy as I actually think our biggest weakness is Center, not RT. 

[Broncofan]

6 minutes ago, grizmo78 said:

I would be surprised if we sign two top tier FAs unless you include Dre'mont Jones as one of them. I like Jones, but his run defense does still leave a lot to be desired. Probably hot take but if I had the option, I would rather sign Daron Payne than re-sign Dre'mont. But I tend to like a stout middle that Payne and DJ Jones would provide. Regardless though, IDL is definitely a priority this offseason. 

I will be curious how we address the Darby situation. Has Mathis played well enough to be our #2 corner? Will we keep Darby? Who would we target if we do cut him? 

I agree with others that our priority should be solidifying our O-line and I hope that starts with Erik McCoy as I actually think our biggest weakness is Center, not RT. 

Darby is a goner IMO.    I agree FA for IOL makes the most sense.   
 

If we don’t extend Dre’mont I think he gets tagged.   But if we tagged / traded him I’d be on Payne.   He won’t be any cheaper then Dre’mont though.   But an IDL big spend and an impact IOL starter are where I think we spend $ first.   RB can be had cheaply in FA (but should draft a Day 3 guy as well - 2 cheap RB on rookie contracts and 1 value depth RB as backup while the rookie learns allows Paton to spend elsewhere where it’s needed - trenches, trenches, trenches).  

Edited November 15, 2022 by Broncofan

[broncosfan_101]

You know the disclaimer by now, but I’ll say it every time: George Paton is not Rick Spielman, even if he worked for him for like 15 years. Rick’s drafting trends don’t necessarily continue on through George now that he’s the one making picks. But.

Some of Spielman’s drafting trends:

1. RB’s early, and basically every other year. AD, Gerhart, Ellison, McKinnon, Cook, Mattison, all in the first 4 rounds over a 13 year stretch. That’s a lot. And considering the need we’ve got there, I’d be shocked if we don’t make an early pick here.

2. Even more DB’s, and even earlier. Twelve DB’s in the first 3 rounds in Paton’s 14 drafts in Minnesota. Absolutely look for another high pick here. 
 

3. OL: maybe??? Living in Vikings territory, I can’t remember that team having many years of even average OL play. Early in the Spielman/Paton tenure, this unit was completely overlooked. Between 2007-2016, the Vikes had 26 picks in the first 3 rounds, and the team selected *two* offensive linemen. Their first decade together, it was clear, the OL was undervalued. But after that, a fairly significant change of course. Elflein in the 3rd, O’Neill in the 2nd, Bradbury in the 1st, Cleveland in the 2nd, all in consecutive seasons. Was Paton part of this shift in strategy? Was he always banging his fist on the table for more OL, and Spielman was the one uninterested? Did Spielman shift away from Paton’s preference after 2016 to avoid OL picks early? Unclear. But after two Paton drafts with only Meinerz in the 3rd, and Wattenberg in the 5th, I am leaning in a certain direction. 

[Broncofan]

7 minutes ago, broncosfan_101 said:

You know the disclaimer by now, but I’ll say it every time: George Paton is not Rick Spielman, even if he worked for him for like 15 years. Rick’s drafting trends don’t necessarily continue on through George now that he’s the one making picks. But.

Some of Spielman’s drafting trends:

1. RB’s early, and basically every other year. AD, Gerhart, Ellison, McKinnon, Cook, Mattison, all in the first 4 rounds over a 13 year stretch. That’s a lot. And considering the need we’ve got there, I’d be shocked if we don’t make an early pick here.

2. Even more DB’s, and even earlier. Twelve DB’s in the first 3 rounds in Paton’s 14 drafts in Minnesota. Absolutely look for another high pick here. 
 

3. OL: maybe??? Living in Vikings territory, I can’t remember that team having many years of even average OL play. Early in the Spielman/Paton tenure, this unit was completely overlooked. Between 2007-2016, the Vikes had 26 picks in the first 3 rounds, and the team selected *two* offensive linemen. Their first decade together, it was clear, the OL was undervalued. But after that, a fairly significant change of course. Elflein in the 3rd, O’Neill in the 2nd, Bradbury in the 1st, Cleveland in the 2nd, all in consecutive seasons. Was Paton part of this shift in strategy? Was he always banging his fist on the table for more OL, and Spielman was the one uninterested? Did Spielman shift away from Paton’s preference after 2016 to avoid OL picks early? Unclear. But after two Paton drafts with only Meinerz in the 3rd, and Wattenberg in the 5th, I am leaning in a certain direction. 

To be fair to Spielman, he did take Darrisaw in his final draft R1.   That's been huge for MIN.

Imagine - Raiders took Alex Leatherwood as a massive reach ahead of him, and IND took Kwitty Paye ahead of him.   Unbelievable given how obvious both team needs were and Darrisaw roundly seen as the last of the top tier T's at the time.      But it was a Gruden draft lol.

[broncosfan_101]

5 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

To be fair to Spielman, he did take Darrisaw in his final draft R1.   That's been huge for MIN.

Imagine - Raiders took Alex Leatherwood as a massive reach ahead of him, and IND took Kwitty Paye ahead of him.   Unbelievable given how obvious both team needs were and Darrisaw roundly seen as the last of the top tier T's at the time.      But it was a Gruden draft lol.

Wyatt Davis in the 3rd, as well. A gigantic flaming bust of a pick, but largely applauded at the time. The major investments at OL started to come in hot and heavy after 2016, a clear tale of two cities, I just don’t know where Paton lives yet. But Spielman’s history shows that extreme ends of the spectrum are both possible outcomes in this regard.

[Broncofan]

11 hours ago, broncosfan_101 said:

Wyatt Davis in the 3rd, as well. A gigantic flaming bust of a pick, but largely applauded at the time. The major investments at OL started to come in hot and heavy after 2016, a clear tale of two cities, I just don’t know where Paton lives yet. But Spielman’s history shows that extreme ends of the spectrum are both possible outcomes in this regard.

Yup, but honestly, once you get your QB, really there's no other bigger impact than trenches, or shutdown CB.    WR is becoming more towards that tier, but only if you have the QB.   Paton should be absolutely hitting the IDL in FA (because you can get impact guys there, and not necessarily at top-overall salaries, either, you can't say that for IOL FA's this offseason - It's too bad Erik McCoy signed a big extension, he was the obvious FA upgrade there).   Sadly this year isn't as good for IOL in past years.   There's quantity at FA T, but getting a long-term T or even a decent T without some injury/decline risk in FA is a tall order.   So really we need to hit T in Rd1-2, and really R1 if you want a Day 1 starter - and I think IOL has to be at least 2 more picks.    Fortunately the draft board looks like we'll have choices. 

If we either re-sign Dre'mont Jones (or go after Daron Payne instead, either works) - and pair with a 2-year (1-guaranteed) for a vet like Matt Ionnadis, then with DJ Jones that really helps a lot.   Even if we re-up Dre'mont, it would be crucial to get another IDL asset (Ionnadis being 29 and playing on the CAR D likely means he's a value target, a Day 3+ under-the-radar signing).  Wouldn't mind taking a shot on a low-level contract for a guy like Maurice Hurst, either.    Much like Shelby Harris, played on bad teams (Raiders) for 3 years, then showed flashes in last year with SF, only to get hurt this year with a torn biceps.  This is one of those 2-year/4M type deals that  could net a Shelby Harris type result (depth guy who shows more).   Zach Allen would be another guy (but not sure how well he fits our scheme/role).   You could get Ionnadis / Hurst for under 10M cap-wise, and combined with the alpha IDL (Dre'mont or Payne), we could suddenly have a DL we'd feel.

 

Thinking on it more, the draft would be shocking if we didn't draft at least 2 of our first 4 picks on OL - and our R1 on a Day 1 starter, either T or IOL.   Unless there's a massive run on OL before we're up, wouldn't seem that we'd be reaching hard, given the depth at both T and IOL we've seen so far.   The fact there are so many QB's in play R1, along with WR, always helps teams that aren't looking that way.

Edited November 17, 2022 by Broncofan

[broncosfan_101]

On 11/14/2022 at 7:25 AM, broncos67 said:

Running Back - I view this as somewhat more likely than WR, believe it or not. Paton clearly values RB. He traded up for Javonte. But after that injury, it's unclear he'll ever be the same. The best weapon for Denver going forward, IMO, is a strong run game to complement Russ. Bijon Robinson/Jamhyr Gibbs are exceptional talent. Our RB position went from awesome to awful - might be worth looking at.

 

Obviously haven’t gotten complete looks at anyone yet, but my early impressions of the top RB’s so far are probably less than enthusiastic than most.
Robinson has all the physical tools of the Zeke’s and Saquon’s of the world, but I think that guy’s gonna have a whole bunch of runs of -4 yards in the NFL. He dances far too much behind the LOS because he knows he’s too talented to get caught by NCAA front 7 players.

Gibbs as a change-of-pace 1B guy, absolutely. In space, he’s lightning. I see him get dropped by first contact and arm tackles too much. An OC like Mike McDaniel who can scheme him into space regularly? He’s a star. But I don’t think he’s that guy as a regular between-the-tackles guy. 
 

My favourite RB target in this class so far is Sean Tucker out of Syracuse. He’s a pretty classic one-cut-and-go runner, has plenty of juice in space, but is also consistently running through arm tackles. I’m guessing he’s a day two pick.

[Broncofan]

10 hours ago, broncosfan_101 said:

Obviously haven’t gotten complete looks at anyone yet, but my early impressions of the top RB’s so far are probably less than enthusiastic than most.
Robinson has all the physical tools of the Zeke’s and Saquon’s of the world, but I think that guy’s gonna have a whole bunch of runs of -4 yards in the NFL. He dances far too much behind the LOS because he knows he’s too talented to get caught by NCAA front 7 players.

Gibbs as a change-of-pace 1B guy, absolutely. In space, he’s lightning. I see him get dropped by first contact and arm tackles too much. An OC like Mike McDaniel who can scheme him into space regularly? He’s a star. But I don’t think he’s that guy as a regular between-the-tackles guy. 
 

My favourite RB target in this class so far is Sean Tucker out of Syracuse. He’s a pretty classic one-cut-and-go runner, has plenty of juice in space, but is also consistently running through arm tackles. I’m guessing he’s a day two pick.

I'd also point out other than Dalvin Cook, in the past 10 years, when the RB position has been gradually devalued - Spielman/Paton never went higher than the 90's to get their RB.   If they think a guy is elite, maybe they repeat the Javonte pick - but I think it was just as much a combo of the elite RB AND the fact we had no real future RB.   As much as Javonte's injury is unclear, it's not a given he's done, either.    Given that,  I think a pick in the 90-120 range is far more likely.    Maybe Paton collects another pick in that range, but I would be mildly surprised if he spent a day 2 pick with our 2 picks - given both the DEN & IND 3rd round picks we have look to be in the top half.    

Having said that, it wouldn't surprise me if Tucker draft stock falls in the Combine period - because he's going to show physical traits that aren't elite.   I don't have a problem with that, but when you combine it with his pass blocking issues, I think we'll see a stock drop.   As a Day 3 pick, won't argue it all. 

A few other guys I like once we're into early Day 3:

1.   The Jakes that falls to Rd4-5 (Evans/Charbonneau) - Zach Evans gets wild evaluations, from being the 3rd back to barely being top 10.  He's also that raw.    Zach Charbonneau is a guy much like Tucker, that I think falls in the shorts & t-shirts period, and that's fine with me too.

2.  Blake Corum - his size is likely going to scare teams away from an early pick - it shouldn't.  At 5'8, 200 - he's the MJD / Ray Rice size profile.     His balance and vision are only 2nd to Gibbs IMO in this draft class.    I'm a sucker for that.   If the size concerns keeps Corum into Day 3, I'm good with that.

3.  Devon Achane - now, his speed could sneak him into Day 2 as the 4th-5th RB off the board, it's that electric.   But given his size makes him more of a 3rd down / pass-catcher / COP guy, I think he's falling to Day 3.    To be clear, I wouldn't reach for him at all - but if he's falling, you want a guy who can change our team's outlook in the pass game in Rd4+, he's the guy.  

 

The RB class is so loaded, we may be able to mine a much better Rd4-5 guy than the 2023 guys who went Rd 3-4 in 2022 (Dameon Pierce is a monster, but otherwise the rest of the RB's <Robinson Jr, Strong, Z-White, H-Haskins> IMO would have been behind the 4 guys I just mentioned, not to mention Tank Bigsby, either).

Edited November 17, 2022 by Broncofan

[broncos67]

Dan made a comment about spending in FA. I would not be surprised to see us spend on offensive skill positions. One thing this year has shown me is that our WRs are not *necessarily* as good as we think they are. Or, even if they are, they don't fit the bill for what Russ likes/needs to be successful.

Now, I did see a stat on Twitter that basically says Sutton/Jeudy are open more often than other receivers but don't get the ball. That's extremely subjective, but there's at least information out there to support it.

I don't think we'll be drafting a WR early largely because we signed Sutton/Patrick to big contracts. That said, while I love both of those guys, they aren't dynamic gamebreaker types. Neither is Jeudy. Hamler is cooked - can't stay healthy, wasn't a Paton pick. I don't see him sticking around. The rest of the roster is complete PS fodder. I'd love to see us go after Mecole Hardman. Think that would be a different kind of player for this offense. 

[broncosfan_101]

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I'd also point out other than Dalvin Cook, in the past 10 years, when the RB position has been gradually devalued - Spielman/Paton never went higher than the 90's to get their RB.   If they think a guy is elite, maybe they repeat the Javonte pick - but I think it was just as much a combo of the elite RB AND the fact we had no real future RB.   As much as Javonte's injury is unclear, it's not a given he's done, either.    Given that,  I think a pick in the 90-120 range is far more likely.    Maybe Paton collects another pick in that range, but I would be mildly surprised if he spent a day 2 pick with our 2 picks - given both the DEN & IND 3rd round picks we have look to be in the top half.    

Adrian Peterson was the best RB in the game between 2007-15. They went into 2016 with him still as their #1, found out that year he was cooked, then picked Cook in 2017. Point is, the Gerhart/Ellison/McKinnon/Mattison picks were all clearly guys drafted as backups, and they were all drafted really early considering that. The Spielman way is to always have two good RB’s on the roster, at least one of them on a rookie deal.

With Javonte’s long term health a major question mark, and no other backs of note on the roster, expect at least a day two pick at that spot (if Paton is the Spielman protege I think he is).

Edited November 17, 2022 by broncosfan_101

[grizmo78]

10 hours ago, Broncofan said:

It's too bad Erik McCoy signed a big extension, he was the obvious FA upgrade there).

Dang! Totally missed that... shame.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, broncosfan_101 said:

Adrian Peterson was the best RB in the game between 2007-15. They went into 2016 with him still as their #1, found out that year he was cooked, then picked Cook in 2017. Point is, the Gerhart/Ellison/McKinnon/Mattison picks were all clearly guys drafted as backups, and they were all drafted really early considering that. The Spielman way is to always have two good RB’s on the roster, at least one of them on a rookie deal.

With Javonte’s long term health a major question mark, and no other backs of note on the roster, expect at least a day two pick at that spot (if Paton is the Spielman protege I think he is).

Keep in mind with the draft being in late April - they'll have a much better feel for if Javonte's recovery's going according to schedule (realizing of course, that even if it's going well, and he plays 2023, he's not going to be back to full Javonte peak mode until 2024).     

The other X factor - the 2023 FA RB class, much like the draft class, is ridiculous in its depth.   I don't think we'd spend at the top rates, but the sheer depth means there's someone to be had who won't cost a fortune - just from the depth alone.  The list of UFA's for 2023 is crazy:

Saquon Barkley (he's going to be retained)

Kareem Hunt (bad PR, doubt we go after him, someone will)

Josh Jacobs (definitely hitting the market)

Tony Pollard

Jamaal Williams 

Miles Sanders

D'onta Foreman

Damien Harris

And that's not including other guys like Jeff Wilson, Alexander Mattison, etc. - the depth is insane.   When we signed MG3, he was probably the 2nd-3rd top RB that year.   This year, the 2021 MG3 wouldn't even be in the top 6-7 (likely the 2021 version would rank above Harris & Foreman). 

In a year where we have limited Day 1-2 resources, and a lot of trench needs - maybe Paton sticks to the draft, but the other thing we've seen with Paton for 2 offseasons is how he's filled the roster in the past with value FA's (and the odd big splash signing where we need it <DJ Jones, Gregory>.  If he can fill the roster need with value FA's, he'll go there first, so as to not be forced to overdraft (he won't have much of a choice with OL, sadly).  As long as there aren't huge red flags in Javonte's recovery (and FWIW, an ACL-LCL isn't nearly as bad as the terrible triad, or ACL/PCL, or in JK Dobbins' case - the hammy & meniscus - a "clean" ACL is best, but ACL-MCL & ACL-LCL in isolation for NFL players, the most recent data has quite good results, ESP with patients 25 years old or younger), the 2023+ RB solution may be more of a FA/draft mix than in other years, where draft is almost always the better way to go long-term - just this year is unique in its RB depth in both FA/RB pools.

As for Javonte's recovery - this is just one recent example, but the theme remains the same - avoid the PCL/meniscus or muscle/nerve groups, and you're young (25 or younger) - much better chances, even with an ACL/LCL - https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2325967120959004.     The big thing though is Paton will know a lot more on Javonte's recovery path by late April than we do now.

If Javonte's recovery is hitting major roadblocks by April...sure.   But even then, that's a FA class of guys where there's going to be somebody who's going to get the MG3 contract - but be a MUCH better play than MG3 was for us (the mileage just caught up - and I say that as someone who hated that we signed him (not for who he was, but that he wasn't what we needed at the time of signing).   

Don't get me wrong, I would love for us to hit value FA AND draft another RB.  With only Javonte as our long-term RB and with his recovery, we should mine value in both pools.    It's just a matter of where they line up and how much we spend on both counts.  In a lot of ways, what Paton does with FA in March likely gives the real direction in April (get a Damien Harris, or Jamaal Williams / Miles Sanders <Tony Pollard would be nuts, but I think he's going to get paid so unlikely to be us>, then still would want to draft from this excellent talent pool for RB's - but when becomes a far different equation).

Edited November 17, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

FWIW, if we accumulated more Day 2 picks, I could see RB going for sure, if Javonte's future is still worrisome by April.   Just if you look at the FA RB class, and our T/IOL needs that are likely going to be massive with a poor IOL FA class....I dunno.     The Javonte injury is so crushing on many fronts - not just this year, but in future planning (and the reality is even if he's still going to be OK and return to his former self - he can return to play much of 2023, but he won't be elite-skill Javonte until 2024.  Maybe with his punishing style, we won't see a big diff, but still stings 6+ weeks later).