2022 GDT Da Steelers 3-6 host Da Bengals 5-4

[warfelg]

Media in this town is so easy to read for when they like/don’t like someone. 

Almost clear as day Dulac is rooting for Pickett to fail because he’s judging him on the “successful QB scale”, aka “what Ben did”. 

Gerry Dulac

10:00

I'm not so sure I agree with the decision-making part. If you're judging it based on a rookie scale, yes, perhaps. But if you're judging it from from a successful NFL QB scale, I'd say no. But I will say his quick decision-making is good, that is, when he knows where he wants to go and throws quickly. And, yes, he has been inaccurate at times, but most of the times he is fairly accurate. When he's not, I'm sure it's part of the rookie development -- not sure what he's looking at and being either too cautious or overly aggressive with his throws. I was glad to see him throw the ball away four or five times against the Saints, tho, and eliminate his interceptions.

[jebrick]

Ben had a great team around him in his rookie year and a great running game.  You watch his rookie games he had a lot of time in the pocket and also had Plax and Ward.  Kenny is coming in like a QB on a bad team.  I will agree that we need to wait a year to see how we grows.

[Steeler Hitman]

21 hours ago, jebrick said:

I think the Steelers win one more game.  Perhaps the Raiders or Panthers. 

Colts defense is very good and their running game will give the Steelers fits.

I do not see them beating Ravens or Browns due to the Steeler offense.

If they get 7 wins it should be accounted as some of Tomlin's finest coaching

 

It is honestly really hard to get a gauge of this Steelers team. It is a game of inches and plays. Here's a breakdown of each game and how close the Steelers were to wins and losses. 

While the Bengal game could have been a loss, they honestly should have blown the Bengals away with the turnovers and any semblance of an offense. 

The New England game should have been a win. A dropped INT by Cam and then a muffed punt inside of the 20 yard line proved to be the winning points. The Steelers defense also gave up a long TD right before the half. If they hold NE to 3 there, pressure is on Daniel Jones who was throwing some pick-able passes. This was a loss that should have been a win. I feel that the Steelers more lost this game than won it. 

The offense doomed the Browns game. The game was much closer than the final score and if the Steelers could have generated points the opening drive, who knows? Cleveland ran the ball as New England did on a worn out defense. I wont take the win from the Browns, but let's say 2-1.

The turnovers were the difference the Jet game. While the offense scored some points, They did not sustain enough drives, kept the game close, let the Jets come back and steal one at the end of regulation. Like the New England game, this won was lost by the Steelers. The Jets have proven to be a solid football team.  Should be 3-1.

Buffalo Game. No need to discuss. They should be 3-2 instead of 1-4. They were completely outclassed and soundly beaten. 

Tampa Bay was a win. Again, it probably should not have been as close as the score was if the offense does some things. It was an off day for Tom Brady and no one saw this coming. This could have been a real confidence builder at 4-2 instead of 2-4.

Miami was another game that the Steelers played well enough to win. The Steelers turnovers and the defenses lack of holding onto four balls doomed them. You are what your record says at 2-5, but they are plays and conversions away from being 5-2.  Do I think they would be as good as their 5-2 record? No. 

Eagles: No need to discuss. Blown away and can't win in Philly. It was over before it started despite the early 7-7 game. Actual record 2-6, but could be 5-3.

Saints was a win and honestly should not have been that close. Continued blown opportunities to put points on the board, etc.  Kenny Pickett's worse game as a pro in my opinion as he looked rattled and was hesitant to throw the football.  He played not to lose rather than playing to win. You get this with a rookie and he will get better as he matures in game experience. Actual record 3-6 and could or should be 6-3. 

Realistically this team could win or lose almost any game. I could see them winning one or two more or up to seven more. This team is not that different from the team that started 11-0 in 2020.  They may be a little better defensively. I could have seen a record of 12-5 and then an early play-off loss again.  The sad thing is now we have no chance of "meeting the standard" Winning a SB.  We hope to have a high draft choice to get a franchise LT, CB, IDL, or Edge.  If they win 4-7 more they are in the middle or worse case sitting out of the play-offs and still picking in the 20's as usual.  You miss the top tier players. 

The Colts are a team that has had me scratching my head the past few years. They are loaded with talent and they seem to lose the games we expect them to win and win the ones we expect them to lose. I expected them to be what the Eagles, Chiefs, Vikings and Bills are. 

I look at the Jeff Saturday hiring like the insertion of Kenny Pickett. It will give you a spark, but teams will catch up and adjust to what they are doing.  I love Frank Reich and I didn't like how he was treated. I think some of the decisions were the owner Mr. Irsay and not him.  I think Coach Reich would have loved to have Matt Ryan playing through his early struggles/adjustments. Jeff Saturday has a relationship with the owner and seemed to be given more coaching/decision making freedom about the QB.  Jeff Saturday was thrown on a moving train.  That is great while the ride is smooth, but there will be bumps. That is what makes for successful coaches. I think the Steelers steal one there. (Because I said that Matt Ryan, Coach Saturday, and the Colts will blow them out).  

[jebrick]

My measuring stick for a chance to win.  Does the other team have a decent defense?  Can the other team run the ball?  If the answers to both of those are yes then I put the Steelers in the lose column.  Just one of them then it is 50-50

[Dcash4]

6 minutes ago, jebrick said:

My measuring stick for a chance to win.  Does the other team have a decent defense?  Can the other team run the ball?  If the answers to both of those are yes then I put the Steelers in the lose column.  Just one of them then it is 50-50

Mine is a weighted scale for:

1) Who has the better QB (50%)?
2) Who has the better HC (25%)?
3) Who has the better defense (25%)?

With a wildcard: Who has the better star?

Bengals win the QB, we win the HC, defense is split, but the Bengals have the higher score with QB. 

TJ is the biggest star in the game, however. If he wrecks everything: Steelers can win. 

[Steeler Hitman]

35 minutes ago, jebrick said:

My measuring stick for a chance to win.  Does the other team have a decent defense?  Can the other team run the ball?  If the answers to both of those are yes then I put the Steelers in the lose column.  Just one of them then it is 50-50

I agree with that, but I also factor in gut and habits of the team as well. I am actually much more metrics in most cases, but this team has been very strange and I see a lot of uncommon trends with the Steelers. This team has been very 50/50 in terms of wins since 2018.  I can only remember one or two games that they have played dominating Steelers football for all or part since then (Browns game one 2020, Eagles third and fourth quarter 2020 and The first half versus the Titans 2020). After that most of the games have been like this season with the difference of having Big Ben. 

[CKSteeler]

12 hours ago, jebrick said:

Ben had a great team around him in his rookie year and a great running game.  You watch his rookie games he had a lot of time in the pocket and also had Plax and Ward.  Kenny is coming in like a QB on a bad team.  I will agree that we need to wait a year to see how we grows.

The Steelers OL was clearly better than what Pickett has by a lot, but that OL in 2004 through 2005 was built to run block. They were not the greatest pass blockers and the Steelers had a pretty simple formula of build a lead, often through the pass, and then sit on it. So Ben may have had 19 attempts in a game, but 13 might have come in the first half of those contests.

A lot of things get said to dismiss what Ben did. Even at the time. That 15-1 Steelers team was 6-10 the year before. Ben had 5 4th quarter comebacks and game winning drives in the regular season. I will not give him much credit for the Jets game in the playoffs, though he has one there on paper, too.

Pickett had a nice opportunity to add one to his resume against the Dolphins and threw the game away. Twice. 

Ben created a lot of his own plays in ways that Pickett can't, despite all the talk about his "athleticism" which is really pretty mundane in the modern NFL. So while Ben wasn't that polished and dissecting defenses like Peyton Manning, his ability to buy time made his WR's look a lot better than they were. He was a big play machine, nearly all of his passes. 8 of his TD's that year came on third downs. When it was 3 and 6 or under, he gained a first down on 44 of 66 attempts. He gained another 9 running the football on 10 attempts. You are talking about a conversion rate of almost 70% when the ball was put in his hands on 3rd down. By comparison, Pickett has thrown 31 such passes with 15 first downs. He's run it another 5 times with 4 conversions. It's a pretty big gap.

Pickett has a QB rating in the 40's in the 4th quarter. Ben had a QB rating of 118.5. 

Ben also did something that Pickett is either scared to do right now or unable to do which is thread the ball into NFL windows. He made the plays down field, especially in the intermediate range. So, just looking at the intangible aspect of judging QB play, Ben showed more on a weekly basis. You could pick just about any game from Ben's rookie year and see more NFL throws than what we've seen from Pickett so far in all of his.

Then there is a the factor of the eras. It is significantly easier to throw the ball in 2022 than it was in 2004.

So yes Ben has some advantages. Better...*cough*...coaching. Better OL and ground game. I'd call it a wash at the skill positions, mainly because I think a lot more highly of Hines Ward than most. By 2005, you'd probably have to give the edge to Pickett. It was a rookie Heath Miller, Ward, and a bunch of JAGs. Ben was getting production of journeymen like Cedrick Wilson and Quincy Morgan. 

[CKSteeler]

To add to the above, 38 year old Ben Roethlisberger probably made more NFL throws last season in just about any game than we've seen from Pickett in all of his starts this year and alls I heard from the media and a lot of fans was that Ben's arm was supposedly shot (it was not his arm, it was his legs more than anything).

I'm not saying Pickett can't do it, but he isn't seeing the field well enough right now or is in fact too scared to take the shots that are there. It's one or the other here. 

[warfelg]

.

Edited November 17, 2022 by warfelg

[warfelg]

Interested to see him on the field as an IDL with Watt out there too. Using him in a 7T alignment when Watt was out was effective but he didn’t have the bend of speed to get home. I think he will be too quick for IOL and facing 1-on-1. Not saying Leal will feast but he should produce more. 

[bigben07MVP]

This might be the healthiest we’ve been since the first time we played the Bengals.

[August4th]

wow, so Minka is good to go? thought he'd be out for a few weeks. looking forward to seeing this original plan for the safeties with a healthy kayzee and fitzpatrick + with a pass rush due to watt's return.

[warfelg]

38 minutes ago, August4th said:

wow, so Minka is good to go? thought he'd be out for a few weeks. looking forward to seeing this original plan for the safeties with a healthy kayzee and fitzpatrick + with a pass rush due to watt's return.

Edmunds improved coverage makes me thing the plan was for him to basically be the dime backer with Kazee and Minkah played cover-2

[AFF]

3 hours ago, warfelg said:

Edmunds improved coverage makes me thing the plan was for him to basically be the dime backer with Kazee and Minkah played cover-2

It seems that way…it’s a reason I’m fine with bringing back both Edmunds and Kazee especially if you can get them at decent rates…I’m leaning towards more resources(picks and bigger contracts) to wards more premium positions.

[jebrick]

1 hour ago, August4th said:

wow, so Minka is good to go? thought he'd be out for a few weeks. looking forward to seeing this original plan for the safeties with a healthy kayzee and fitzpatrick + with a pass rush due to watt's return.

Modern appendectomy is 3 small  holes.  They drain it, tie it off and pull it out of the belly button.