Aaron Rodgers contract - An analysis

[CWood21]

4 hours ago, StatKing said:

Do i really need to explain why trading a first ballot hall of fame QB to a divison rival is a bad idea even if he only has a few years left? Any GM that does that would be fired on the spot.

The only time you worry about who you're trading the player to is if the packages are similar.  I mean, go back and  look at the Khalil Mack trade.  He was traded to the Bears because the Raiders' GM felt that the Packers pick was going to be later.  If the Vikings are offering 3 FRPs and the Raiders are offering 1 FRP, than Gute would deserve to get fired for not taking the Vikings' package.

[StatKing]

3 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

If they're the highest paying team, I'd trade him to the Vikings or Bears.  But I don't think there's any chance of that given the QB situations of Chicago and Minnesota, and the direction of the Lions.

I don't know about you but there was nothing I wanted more than to beat Favre twice in 2009. Those two games felt like a Super Bowl to me. I'm not so sure Rodgers becomes the player he does if Favre doesn't fall off a cliff in 2010. Losing the divison two straight years to Favre would have been unbearable.

Rodgers is playing below standard this year for sure but I think we can all agree he has more in the tank than Favre did at that point. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if he plays at a high level for another 3 years just to spite the Packers.

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, StatKing said:

I don't know about you but there was nothing I wanted more than to beat Favre twice in 2009. Those two games felt like a Super Bowl to me. I'm not so sure Rodgers becomes the player he does if Favre doesn't fall off a cliff in 2010. Losing the divison two straight years to Favre would have been unbearable.

Rodgers is playing below standard this year for sure but I think we can all agree he has more in the tank than Favre did at that point. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if he plays at a high level for another 3 years just to spite the Packers.

If you want to be petty against a former Packer, go right ahead.  But I'm more concerned with the franchise's overall well-being rather than getting revenge against a former Packer.  LIS, if Gute turns down a better package for Rodgers from a divisional rival, I'm calling for his job.

[Sandy]

26 minutes ago, StatKing said:

I don't know about you but there was nothing I wanted more than to beat Favre twice in 2009. Those two games felt like a Super Bowl to me. I'm not so sure Rodgers becomes the player he does if Favre doesn't fall off a cliff in 2010. Losing the divison two straight years to Favre would have been unbearable.

Rodgers is playing below standard this year for sure but I think we can all agree he has more in the tank than Favre did at that point. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if he plays at a high level for another 3 years just to spite the Packers.

You're making decisions with too much emotion. Successful GMs have to have ice in their veins. 

I don't think Rodgers wants to play in Minnesota so this is probably moot, but if the Vikings trade us 2 first rounders when no one is offering 1, you have a chance to set that team back in just a couple seasons. They can strive for their SB championship for a year or two but then they'll be terrible again while we'll have extra young studs playing on rookie contracts.

[Packerraymond]

This is all an irrelevant argument. Players have values, no team is going to come a-calling offering double that of the other 31 teams. Therefore the only trades we'll ever make with a divisional team is draft day trades for pick swaps. It doesn't happen, not sure why you're all wasting time going back and forth.

[craig]

Trade for the best package, who cares who you trade him to, division, conference, who cares.  We're not winning the year after a trade anyway.  Just get the best return you can that will help you the most long-term.  

[StatKing]

1 hour ago, Sandy said:

You're making decisions with too much emotion. Successful GMs have to have ice in their veins. 

I don't think Rodgers wants to play in Minnesota so this is probably moot, but if the Vikings trade us 2 first rounders when no one is offering 1, you have a chance to set that team back in just a couple seasons. They can strive for their SB championship for a year or two but then they'll be terrible again while we'll have extra young studs playing on rookie contracts.

I didn't say its the decision I would make. While you do want a GM with ice in their veins they are still human. Fear makes people do things they otherwise wouldn't. Like @Packerraymond said its a moot point because teams just don't do player swaps in division.

[StatKing]

6 hours ago, CWood21 said:

The only time you worry about who you're trading the player to is if the packages are similar.  I mean, go back and  look at the Khalil Mack trade.  He was traded to the Bears because the Raiders' GM felt that the Packers pick was going to be later.  If the Vikings are offering 3 FRPs and the Raiders are offering 1 FRP, than Gute would deserve to get fired for not taking the Vikings' package.

If it was any other position i agree with you wholeheartedly but the value of having a true franchise QB is second to none in my opinion. I'll even go a step further and say I wouldn't trade Rodgers for 5 first round picks, even if he only plays another couple years.

Guys like Mahomes, Rodgers, Brady, and Allen are rare. You ride those guys until the wheels fall off. No amount of draft picks or players can make up the value they bring to a franchise.

Edited December 17, 2022 by StatKing

[Pugger]

20 hours ago, StatKing said:

The two aren't mutually exclusive. Let's say the we do trade Rodgers to the Vikings, which is the only team I could see doing it, that puts a tremendous amount of pressure on us to win that otherwise wouldnt be there if we traded him to say the Titans.

Pressure like that makes GMs desperate, something we haven't had to experience the past 20+ years because of our stability at QB. Desperate GMs will do anything to keep their job, future be damned. Why would Gute worry about the health of the franchise 5 years from now when there's no guarantee he makes it another two?

Just look at what Ryan Pace did to the Bears. After 2018 he pushed all his chips to the middle of the table and it didn't work. The 2021 draft rolls around and he's so desperate to keep his job he ships a haul for Justin Fields hoping it would buy him atleast another year but it didn't. He singlehandedly set them back 5 years with that one trade.

That is a scenario we should try to avoid at all costs. Even if we get 3 firsts for Rodgers it isn't worth the risk in my opinion.

Cousins signed with the Vikes thru 2023 so unless they trade Kirk this offseason they aren't going to be calling Gute about Rodgers any time soon.

If SF wants a veteran QB for 2023 I would think they would keep Jimmy G instead of courting GB for Rodgers.  Word is SF is open to JG returning and he is 8 years younger plus he won't cost nearly as much as AR would.

Edited December 17, 2022 by Pugger

[StatKing]

1 hour ago, Pugger said:

Cousins signed with the Vikes thru 2023 so unless they trade Kirk this offseason they aren't going to be calling Gute about Rodgers any time soon.

If SF wants a veteran QB for 2023 I would think they would keep Jimmy G instead of courting GB for Rodgers.  Word is SF is open to JG returning and he is 8 years younger plus he won't cost nearly as much as AR would.

Cousins for Rodgers swap confirmed.

[minnypackerfan]

15 hours ago, StatKing said:

If it was any other position i agree with you wholeheartedly but the value of having a true franchise QB is second to none in my opinion. I'll even go a step further and say I wouldn't trade Rodgers for 5 first round picks, even if he only plays another couple years.

Guys like Mahomes, Rodgers, Brady, and Allen are rare. You ride those guys until the wheels fall off. No amount of draft picks or players can make up the value they bring to a franchise.

Betting on a quarterback who is turning 40 or older and staying elite better be a short term gamble and that team better be ready and able to win it all. Tampa Bay was that team....years ago Denver was that team.  Even with Rodgers, we are not that team.  Rodgers may or may not be elite next year.  I highly doubt he will be elite 2 or 3 years from now.  Will Love ever be very good or elite, nobody really knows at this point.  We think that his arrow is pointing up at this point. This all has to go into Gute's calculation on which quarterback to keep.  If Love is not the guy, trade him this offseason and go with Rodgers.  If Love is your guy, trade Rodgers.  Either way, get some draft capital to help your team get back to greatness in a shorter time. 

[Sandy]

56 minutes ago, minnypackerfan said:

Betting on a quarterback who is turning 40 or older and staying elite better be a short term gamble and that team better be ready and able to win it all. Tampa Bay was that team....years ago Denver was that team.  Even with Rodgers, we are not that team.  Rodgers may or may not be elite next year.  I highly doubt he will be elite 2 or 3 years from now.  Will Love ever be very good or elite, nobody really knows at this point.  We think that his arrow is pointing up at this point. This all has to go into Gute's calculation on which quarterback to keep.  If Love is not the guy, trade him this offseason and go with Rodgers.  If Love is your guy, trade Rodgers.  Either way, get some draft capital to help your team get back to greatness in a shorter time. 

This is why SF makes so much sense. They are that team. They've already given up so much draft capital that they know it's SB or bust, two year window, and then it will all come crashing down.

I think they'll dip even further into eventual oblivion and offer whatever they can to get Rodgers. Only thing that might stop them is if Brady wants to go there, but Rodgers is the better QB.

Their only question is do they even have the assets to match a team like LV in trade return? If Rodgers gives the green light to both teams, LVs first rounder is worth an expected 1400 draft points. SF could give up their first and second rounders in each of the next two drafts and it still won't be worth that.

[StatKing]

2 hours ago, minnypackerfan said:

Betting on a quarterback who is turning 40 or older and staying elite better be a short term gamble and that team better be ready and able to win it all. Tampa Bay was that team....years ago Denver was that team.  Even with Rodgers, we are not that team.  Rodgers may or may not be elite next year.  I highly doubt he will be elite 2 or 3 years from now.  Will Love ever be very good or elite, nobody really knows at this point.  We think that his arrow is pointing up at this point. This all has to go into Gute's calculation on which quarterback to keep.  If Love is not the guy, trade him this offseason and go with Rodgers.  If Love is your guy, trade Rodgers.  Either way, get some draft capital to help your team get back to greatness in a shorter time. 

I would rather bet on the 40 year old who has atleast proven he can be elite. I just don't think its as easy as you guys think it is to find an elite QB. Look how long it took for some teams to find their guy. It took the Bills and Chiefs 20+ years, some franchises even longer. I'm pretty sure they would know by now if Love has the potential to be elite. Rodgers contract extension pretty much told me all I need to know.

 

[minnypackerfan]

2 hours ago, StatKing said:

I would rather bet on the 40 year old who has atleast proven he can be elite. I just don't think its as easy as you guys think it is to find an elite QB. Look how long it took for some teams to find their guy. It took the Bills and Chiefs 20+ years, some franchises even longer. I'm pretty sure they would know by now if Love has the potential to be elite. Rodgers contract extension pretty much told me all I need to know.

 

You may get your wish.  Unfortunately, Rodgers is not ascending anymore....he's descending. He is still very good, just not elite anymore.  The arm is there, the legs are going.  At times he just looks mentally shot.  The rest of the team has to get a lot better for them to be competitive again.  Even with a good draft I don't see it next year.

Of course Love may never be good either.  What a fun offseason for Gute.    

[Pugger]

12 hours ago, Sandy said:

This is why SF makes so much sense. They are that team. They've already given up so much draft capital that they know it's SB or bust, two year window, and then it will all come crashing down.

I think they'll dip even further into eventual oblivion and offer whatever they can to get Rodgers. Only thing that might stop them is if Brady wants to go there, but Rodgers is the better QB.

Their only question is do they even have the assets to match a team like LV in trade return? If Rodgers gives the green light to both teams, LVs first rounder is worth an expected 1400 draft points. SF could give up their first and second rounders in each of the next two drafts and it still won't be worth that.

Like I said above - why would SF want to bother with a 40 year old QB who isn't as good as he once was with a big contract when they can resign Jimmy G who is 8 years younger for a hell of lot less?