Week 12 GDT: Texans @ Miami (Kyle Allen Era)

[PAtexansFAN_99]

That all makes sense from like a trends standpoint, but I dono. Couldn't you apply that same logic to say that good QB play depends on how good the team is, or  something like that? 

3 hours ago, ET80 said:

Hurts beats the Russell Wilson-led Broncos and the Justin Fields-led Bears

Replace "Hurts" with "the Eagles", then yes. 

All I know is, my eyeball is telling me there have been a pretty decent number of competitive, well-placed balls that were dropped this season by basically everyone who's been targeted. 

To me, the best way to wrap my head around a new QB making a massive difference is if the guy's a legitimate threat as a runner. If you run four verticals with Lamar Jackson, the coverage is going to look different than if you run it with Matt Ryan. It's almost like having an extra player on offense. I could see that dynamic leading to increased production from our pass catchers. I think that's probably got a lot to do with our WRs improvement when Watson was QB. 

Also, just like, I think another good way to think about it is.. In a lot of these games, especially early on, the defense was actually holding it down for a pretty long time, but there came a point in the second halves of those games where you just got the feeling that the other team's quarterback would eventually be able to do SOMETHING, and that our quarterback would not, and that's a pretty big deal. Even just the belief that something good could happen is a pretty big deal. 

If we take a QB, obviously I'll love it. I've gotten pretty skilled at rationalizing all this crazy stuff the Texans do all the time, and thinking that a star college QB will be a star NFL QB isn't a difficult thing to imagine. I'm just scared, okay? We HAVE to get these picks right, and so many other things, coach, free agency.. but if we take a QB and that guy busts, I'm afraid we may never again see the light of day. 

[ET80]

2 hours ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said:

That all makes sense from like a trends standpoint, but I dono. Couldn't you apply that same logic to say that good QB play depends on how good the team is, or  something like that? 

I’ll simplify it further - good QB play usually means good team. Deshaun Watson’s 2020 season is an incredibly rare outlier; If you have a QB producing at an above average level, you probably have an above average team in terms of W/L. Players look better at 10+ wins than they do at 1-2 wins (I think we can agree to this).

2 hours ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said:

6 hours ago, ET80 said:

Hurts beats the Russell Wilson-led Broncos and the Justin Fields-led Bears

Replace "Hurts" with "the Eagles", then yes. 

But, I mean the Texans - the Texans lost to the Broncos 16-9, and had a lead going into the 4th quarter of that game. Russell Wilson led a drive to take the lead, and Mills nearly lead a response, but he threw a pick late, IIRC. Ditto the Bears - Texans held a late lead, Khalil Herbert took the lead and Mills couldn’t get it back. In both of those examples, I can’t see where Mills performed in those circumstances better than Hurts would, and Mills nearly won those games.

I think you’re forgetting how competitive the Texans were early on in the season - it wasn’t until the Chargers game that the wheels completely came off. Rewatch those games, better QB play leads to a win.

2 hours ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said:

Also, just like, I think another good way to think about it is.. In a lot of these games, especially early on, the defense was actually holding it down for a pretty long time, but there came a point in the second halves of those games where you just got the feeling that the other team's quarterback would eventually be able to do SOMETHING, and that our quarterback would not, and that's a pretty big deal. Even just the belief that something good could happen is a pretty big deal. 

This sort of agrees with my point - having a QB who can throw a counterpunch improves your team. We know that firsthand, a 24-0 lead can evaporate with a guy like Pat Mahomes on the other side, even if you have Deshaun Watson.

2 hours ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said:

I'm just scared, okay? We HAVE to get these picks right, and so many other things, coach, free agency.. but if we take a QB and that guy busts, I'm afraid we may never again see the light of day. 

I get it - I’m worried too. But eventually you gotta **** or get off the pot; You can’t sit there and wait for the QB because NONE of these QBs are guaranteed; Bryce Young busting is as likely as Caleb Williams busting, which is as likely as Quinn Ewers busting, which is as likely as Arch Manning busting… there’s no promise on any of these guys, and there’s no guarantee you’re picking 1.1 in any given year, so if a guy is there worthy of the pick and you have the pick… don’t overthink it.