The Josh Jacobs Decision

[Rolni]

This UFA and draft class looks really strong at RB, so I doubt we can tag and trade JJ.

I think he gets the fr.tag and then he will leave after this upcoming season.

He can help a lot a rookie or stop gap QB, but in today's NFL as that charts showes, you do not build a winner on/with a hefty RB contract.

Then again, we might just resign him around 12M/year and enjoy what a rookie QB salary can let you do...

[NYRaider]

2 hours ago, Rolni said:

This UFA and draft class looks really strong at RB, so I doubt we can tag and trade JJ.

I think he gets the fr.tag and then he will leave after this upcoming season.

He can help a lot a rookie or stop gap QB, but in today's NFL as that charts showes, you do not build a winner on/with a hefty RB contract.

Then again, we might just resign him around 12M/year and enjoy what a rookie QB salary can let you do...

I don’t think he’ll play on the tag with a rookie QB.

[big_palooka]

RBs - Only draft a special skill set in round 1. Keep them 4 years, tag them a year, then move on. Rinse and repeat. 

 

[NYRaider]

6 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

RBs - Only draft a special skill set in round 1. Keep them 4 years, tag them a year, then move on. Rinse and repeat. 

 

Or you pick up their 5th year option so you don’t have to tag them. 
 

Seeing JMD find guys like Damien Harris and Stevenson gives me faith though. 

Edited February 15, 2023 by NYRaider

[Rolni]

16 hours ago, NYRaider said:

I don’t think he’ll play on the tag with a rookie QB.

I believe he said that he is willing to play on the tag if the team is set up for success.

By the way even if he doesn't like the set up, I highly doubt he would sit out a year and if he doesn't play well in 2023 he won't have a chance to cash in next offseason.

 

I think if we get a solid veteran and a promising rookie QB, upgrade the OL and keep Adams, Waller and Renfrow happy (at least 2 of them anyway...) he won't have an issue. Zamir will get more carries, so he won't be run into the ground, which could be a concern for him more then a fr.tag IMO.

[RaidersAreOne]

 

[RaidersAreOne]

 

[jimkelly02]

I think a team can resign a RB for 11-13M APY for 4 years and it’d be a successful contract… but he’s gotta stay healthy and give you minimum 1200 yds rushing + 250yds receiving every year AND give you at least 12 games every season.

I’d feel much much better about a 3 year deal or a deal that the team could get out of the deal with under 5m cap hit after year 2.  

If you sign Jacobs to a 3-4yr deal with the hopes plays it out, you can’t structure the deal with a very low cap hit in the first season that gets made up for with large hits in later seasons.  No RB is going to be worth 16-18M that a backloaded deal would have.  
 

4 years, 52M with 28M guaranteed at signing.

’23: 11.75M salary (guaranteed) plus 250k workout bonus

’24: 11.75M salary (guaranteed) plus 250k workout bonus

’25: 4M roster bonus (guaranteed) plus 8.75 salary and 250k workout bonus

’26: 12.75M salary plus 250k workout bonus with 4M of salary guarantees on 3rd day of FA.  

* You could still add void years to deal in year 4 to stretch out the cap hit if you were making a playoff push.

I said this after Jacobs rookie year several times on this board:  IF your going to re-sign Jacobs to a 2nd contract you need to monitor his carries.  Your not going to get 340 Carries out of Jacobs for 4 straight years.  But if you can be efficient mixing Zamir White into the run game it significantly increases Jacobs ability to stay healthy.  You can still use Jacobs as a workhorse in the 4th quarter but there are certainly times in which you can use White to lessen the wear and tear.

[Humble_Beast]

13 hours ago, jimkelly02 said:

I think a team can resign a RB for 11-13M APY for 4 years and it’d be a successful contract… but he’s gotta stay healthy and give you minimum 1200 yds rushing + 250yds receiving every year AND give you at least 12 games every season.

I’d feel much much better about a 3 year deal or a deal that the team could get out of the deal with under 5m cap hit after year 2.  

If you sign Jacobs to a 3-4yr deal with the hopes plays it out, you can’t structure the deal with a very low cap hit in the first season that gets made up for with large hits in later seasons.  No RB is going to be worth 16-18M that a backloaded deal would have.  
 

4 years, 52M with 28M guaranteed at signing.

’23: 11.75M salary (guaranteed) plus 250k workout bonus

’24: 11.75M salary (guaranteed) plus 250k workout bonus

’25: 4M roster bonus (guaranteed) plus 8.75 salary and 250k workout bonus

’26: 12.75M salary plus 250k workout bonus with 4M of salary guarantees on 3rd day of FA.  

* You could still add void years to deal in year 4 to stretch out the cap hit if you were making a playoff push.

I said this after Jacobs rookie year several times on this board:  IF your going to re-sign Jacobs to a 2nd contract you need to monitor his carries.  Your not going to get 340 Carries out of Jacobs for 4 straight years.  But if you can be efficient mixing Zamir White into the run game it significantly increases Jacobs ability to stay healthy.  You can still use Jacobs as a workhorse in the 4th quarter but there are certainly times in which you can use White to lessen the wear and tear.

Jacobs 4 year deal, but an opt out on year 4. 

[NYRaider]

I'd just tag him with the non-exclusive tag if someone else signs him to a monster deal we can match or they have to give us two FRPs. He played well last year but I wouldn't give him 14-15M APY because if his production drops to what it was in years 1-3, it's a terrible value.

[fattlipp]

I guess this decision will be affected by their thoughts on Zamir White…

[drfrey13]

34 minutes ago, fattlipp said:

I guess this decision will be affected by their thoughts on Zamir White…

I think you still tag him in hopes you can trade him even if you see White as a starter.  You can always rescind the tag.

[jimkelly02]

16 hours ago, NYRaider said:

I'd just tag him with the non-exclusive tag if someone else signs him to a monster deal we can match or they have to give us two FRPs. He played well last year but I wouldn't give him 14-15M APY because if his production drops to what it was in years 1-3, it's a terrible value.

Yeah I think the limit has to be 12/13M.  I think we need to sit down and tell him that a 12-13M deal that’s structured with good guarantees and so it’s likely he’ll play out the contract is a better deal for him then 14-15M on paper that he only gets thru 2 years.

[101Raider]

On 2/25/2023 at 3:41 PM, NYRaider said:

I'd just tag him with the non-exclusive tag if someone else signs him to a monster deal we can match or they have to give us two FRPs. He played well last year but I wouldn't give him 14-15M APY because if his production drops to what it was in years 1-3, it's a terrible value.

100% this. Run the wheels off him for another year. He doesn’t like it and he walks next year, oh well. I’d be happy with the 2 years of elite production and a 3rd as a future comp. 

[big_palooka]

8 hours ago, 101Raider said:

100% this. Run the wheels off him for another year. He doesn’t like it and he walks next year, oh well. I’d be happy with the 2 years of elite production and a 3rd as a future comp. 

Agree with this on RBs. Don't draft in round1 unless they have rare ability. Run them 4 years, tag if they are good, get your comp pick. Rinse and repeat.