The Josh Jacobs Decision

[jimkelly02]

Semantics…. If we win only 6 games we need to get a new HC.

[Jerry]

Who are all these people voting? 34 people?  We have a bunch of stalkers.

Also, can't believe people want to resign him for 3-4 years.  We'd be better off signing/drafting cheap RBs.  Cheap RBs win championships.

[raidr4life]

15 minutes ago, Jerry said:

Who are all these people voting? 34 people?  We have a bunch of stalkers.

Also, can't believe people want to resign him for 3-4 years.  We'd be better off signing/drafting cheap RBs.  Cheap RBs win championships.

I'd sign him for 3 specifically but be able to get out in 2.

3years 36M 24 guaranteed. Something like that. 

It won't be much more than Renfrow salary.

Edited May 1, 2023 by raidr4life

[Jerry]

Just now, raidr4life said:

I'd sign him for 3 specifically but be able to get out in 2.

Way more agreeable than 4 years.  By year 3 he could be running on fumes for all we know.  Looking like Ezekiel Elliott.  

[raidr4life]

2 minutes ago, Jerry said:

Way more agreeable than 4 years.  By year 3 he could be running on fumes for all we know.  Looking like Ezekiel Elliott.  

Jacobs was less used in college and and they should be giving Zues more carries this year which would make the run game beastly keeping Jacobs a little fresher.

[Jerry]

6 minutes ago, raidr4life said:

Jacobs was less used in college and and they should be giving Zues more carries this year which would make the run game beastly keeping Jacobs a little fresher.

I'd rather we jump ship before his play starts to decline than be stuck with a player that becomes overpaid for a year or two.  We should be able to find RB(s) that can replace him within a year or two.  For much cheaper as well.

[raidr4life]

11 minutes ago, Jerry said:

I'd rather we jump ship before his play starts to decline than be stuck with a player that becomes overpaid for a year or two.  We should be able to find RB(s) that can replace him within a year or two.  For much cheaper as well.

Who were our running backs before Jacobs? Yes some team finds a RB sleeper here and there doesn't mean we will.

[ronjon1990]

1 hour ago, raidr4life said:

Who were our running backs before Jacobs? Yes some team finds a RB sleeper here and there doesn't mean we will.

To be honest, RB has been a brighter spot for a while for us. Sexy? Not by a mile. But we squeezed blood from turnips named Latavius Murray, Marshawn Lynch off the street, and Doug Martin. 

If we're keeping Jacobs, White has got to have more carries. Regardless of how little Jacobs got worn down in college, he's been used particularly heavily in the NFL and the health is probably going to remain an issue. 

 

[Jerry]

19 hours ago, raidr4life said:

Who were our running backs before Jacobs? Yes some team finds a RB sleeper here and there doesn't mean we will.

Yeah we're pretty bad at finding good players.  Either way, Jacobs won't last forever.

[Justwinning]

We should keep good players. Josh Jacobs is a good player. Given the market for RBs, Jacobs's deal will not prevent the Raiders from acquiring who they really want.

[Rolni]

After this UFA cycle I think Ziegler & Co stands on the better end of this conversation.

Right after the season JJ had the upper hand IMO, right now I guess the teams offer looks a lot better.

 

I imagine JJ shoots for the top RB contracts, but this recent RB market and the trade talks around the top paid RBs most definately points in the direction of a lesser contract for JJ too.

Miles Sanders got 6,25M AAV, so that 10,1M fr. contract number looks really good compared to market numbers.

JJ probably still want to get into the 12M club, which is a reasonable asking price IMO, but he and his agent has to realize that even the 12M deals were signed in 2020 or 2021 at latest. If they can get 12M for the Raiders they need to jump on it IMO.

His price next offseason won't get higher than that even after another strong year IMO...the RB market will get back to the declining trend after that 2020-2021 bump.

 

If he holds out, skips games with "injuries" his price only goes down and will get around that 6-8M.

He can only loose money with a short or weak season IMO.

Yeah our offense will be weaker without a strong and dedicated JJ, but Zeus is not a bad RB and after a year in this system, he now have a good understanding and I bet he is willing to run through a wall, to show what he can do. 

Basically the worst thing for JJ is if he holds out, Zeus shines in TC, in pre season and then gets more and more playing time and does well with it. Then JJ will have a really soft market IMO...

Bell showed that it is not beneficiary to sit out a year and if JJ won't sit out the year he will have to be there in TC and show everyone that he is the lead back and need another strong season to get the most money he can after 2023.

[jimkelly02]

19 hours ago, Rolni said:

After this UFA cycle I think Ziegler & Co stands on the better end of this conversation.

…

I imagine JJ shoots for the top RB contracts, but this recent RB market and the trade talks around the top paid RBs most definately points in the direction of a lesser contract for JJ too.

Miles Sanders got 6,25M AAV, so that 10,1M fr. contract number looks really good compared to market numbers.

JJ probably still want to get into the 12M club, which is a reasonable asking price IMO, but he and his agent has to realize that even the 12M deals were signed in 2020 or 2021 at latest. If they can get 12M for the Raiders they need to jump on it IMO.

Bell showed that it is not beneficiary to sit out a year and if JJ won't sit out the year he will have to be there in TC and show everyone that he is the lead back and need another strong season to get the most money he can after 2023.

Sitting out a year is a horrible decision for a RB.  I can’t see a situation where that actually benefits them. 

Those deals are all now a few years old and the salary cap has gone up from ‘20:182.5M and ‘21:208.2M to ‘23: 224.8M.  That’s a pretty substantial jump and Jacobs has a valid claim that his contract should see a proportional increase or close to it, as such increases are common practice throughout the league.  But as you said, the market for RBs wasn’t that hot this year (or last for that matter) so a compromise from Jacobs is needed.

I think the 12M dollar range is where the Raiders, not Jacobs, should be shooting for.  Jacobs is likely to be asking for more but for a deal to be made he’ll likely have to compromise and come down to the 12-13M range.
The deals of Cook, Henry, Mixon in 2020 and Aaron Jones and Nick Chubb in 2021 that you eluded got are all in the 12.0 to 12.6M range and 4 years long except for Cook’s 5 and Chubb’s 3.

The hard part of the negotiation might be the guaranteed at signing money.  That’s where there’s the most difference amongst the deals and how their structured.  

Like @raidr4life stated, we should structure the deal so we can get out of it after the second year.  That said, I think signing him to a 4 year deal with 12.8 APY (makes him the 3rd highest paid RB by a slim margin) is a fair compromise.  As far as guaranteed money goes I think roughly 50% of the deal equaling 25M would be a fair compromise by the team as it’s more then the other RB deals by a wide margin except for Chubb and Henry’s (approx 50%) which is on par with.
Jacobs compromises on APY not increasing in the 2-3 years since the last RB deals were made and in exchange the team compromises and gives slightly more guaranteed money at signing, but is still able to get out of the deal after year 2 without a major dead. 

Lastly, in years 3 and 4 when there is no guaranteed at signing money left I think it’d be fair to have some form of an option bonus due at the start of the league year to protect Jacobs from going thru the entire off-season and then being released.  
 

4 years, 51.2M with 10m SB

’23- 2.0M (guaranteed) salary, 4.0 roster bonus due 3 days after signing, 100k workout bonus.  Cap hit: 9.1M

’24- 3.0M guaranteed salary, 6.0M roster bonus due 3rd day of league year, 100k WB.  Cap hit: 11.6M

’25- 6.0M salary, 6.0M roster bonus due day 3 of league year, 100k WB *6M of salary guarantees on 3rd day of league year. Cap hit: 14.6M

‘26- 7.8M salary, 6.0M roster bonus due day 3 of league year, 100k WB. Cap hit: 16.4M

The 1st year cash payout is 16.1M and year two is 25.2M.  The dead cap Left on the deal entering year 3 is only 5M and 2.5m entering year 4.  The first year cap hit is about a million less then it currently is with the franchise tag.  Come year 3 if we want to keep Jacobs the roster bonus (and even part of the salary) can be converted to a roster bonus and 2 void years can be added to reduce the cap hit, but would thus create dead cap once the contract ends.    

[Rolni]

The signing bonus doesn't work like that.

10M SB for 4 years means 10M actual money at signing and it gets as 2,5M SB for every year in the cap. That is why you have DM for years when you cut, trade a bigger UFA signing.

We gave 11,25M SB to Jimmy G on his 72,75M deal, but only 5,5M SB for Meyers on his 33M deal. MD doesn't like to give out signing bonuses. Now in LV he can, but this is not how we operate.

 

I think it would be a fair thing to get Jacobs to 3rd highest paid RB as you stated. I would do 13M/year.

4 year deal for max 52M with 8M signing bonus and 24M guaranteed at signing (2023/2024 salary, 2024roster bonus, SB) and another 12M guaranteed in for of roster bonuses before every new season.

I'm not sure Ziegler and JMD will spend that much on a RB with their NE roots tho...

 

 

[RaidersAreOne]

 

[agarcia34]

Only hurting himself with a hold out with this CBA. Seems pretty stupid to complain about money then get fines everyday for not showing up and these fines can’t be revered like before. Call his bluff and if he doesn’t then thats on him