The Josh Jacobs Decision

[Geezy]

2 hours ago, NickButera said:

Went back and watched a mcdaniels presser or two because I was looking for something. After the denver game, he was talking about how he's so used to rotating backs, as that's where he came from. He was surprised to have a RB respond like Jacobs and he changed the way he played RB's. 

Explains why he stocked up 5 RB's and why he didn't play Jacobs much in the first few games. At least he changed and went with what was working instead of sticking to his original plan. 

One thing I’ve given McD credit for this year, is being flexible and not stubbornly sticking with wasn’t working. 

[Styrian Raider]

3 hours ago, Geezy said:

One thing I’ve given McD credit for this year, is being flexible and not stubbornly sticking with wasn’t working. 

That could also be an indicator, that the new regime is trying to bring back Jacobs, and why they didn't exercise the 5th year option of Jacobs.

 

[RaidersAreOne]

Update: His price has skyrocketed. 

 

[NYRaider]

35 minutes ago, RaidersAreOne said:

Update: His price has skyrocketed. 

 

Spotrac has his market value at 4 yr/$51.4M ($12.8M APY), FWIW.

[MrOaktown_56]

1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

Spotrac has his market value at 4 yr/$51.4M ($12.8M APY), FWIW.

Worth it. Give him a real OL and he can go for more than this year.

[101Raider]

24 minutes ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

Worth it. Give him a real OL and he can go for more than this year.

I agree, prior to the season I was in the “RBs are replaceable” camp. Jacobs changed my mind this season.

[NYRaider]

36 minutes ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

Worth it. Give him a real OL and he can go for more than this year.

I'm assuming that his deal will be structured like the deals we've seen Joe Mixon and Aaron Jones get. A huge number with only the first year really being guaranteed. Mixon and Jones both got around $12M APY but $10/13M fully GTD in their deals.

Edited January 9, 2023 by NYRaider

[Rolni]

As a Pats fan reminded me, the Pats always draft and sit RBs for their first year. They let them to learn the scheme, the pass blocking duties and then they use them from year 2 till their contract runs out.

If this is an indication, we could see White being the RB come September. Obviously that would be a huge risk by the FO.
They could try to fr.tag JJ and trade him, then go out and sign a guy like D.Harris, who is a quality RB with system knowledge and would cost much less. That way they can get some assetts for JJ, they get a veteran, proven runner to split carries with White and can still bring back Abdullah as 3rd down RB too...

It will be understandable after a season like this to extend JJ, but that will be antoher big risk, with his injury history IMO.

 

[big_palooka]

46 minutes ago, Rolni said:

As a Pats fan reminded me, the Pats always draft and sit RBs for their first year. They let them to learn the scheme, the pass blocking duties and then they use them from year 2 till their contract runs out.

If this is an indication, we could see White being the RB come September. Obviously that would be a huge risk by the FO.
They could try to fr.tag JJ and trade him, then go out and sign a guy like D.Harris, who is a quality RB with system knowledge and would cost much less. That way they can get some assetts for JJ, they get a veteran, proven runner to split carries with White and can still bring back Abdullah as 3rd down RB too...

It will be understandable after a season like this to extend JJ, but that will be antoher big risk, with his injury history IMO.

 

Worth noting, the Pats never had anything like Jacobs as McDaniels has stated. He said he's used to guys wanting to come out and Jacobs never wants to leave the field. 

I think Jacobs is what the FO wants for their culture. Team guy, leader, tough and wants to be the best. Crosby, Adams fall into this category as well. He'll be back. 

[Rolni]

40 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

Worth noting, the Pats never had anything like Jacobs as McDaniels has stated. He said he's used to guys wanting to come out and Jacobs never wants to leave the field. 

I think Jacobs is what the FO wants for their culture. Team guy, leader, tough and wants to be the best. Crosby, Adams fall into this category as well. He'll be back. 

All true!

This is why it is a really interesting point IMO.

Will they bring back JJ, who can help establish the culture, who is a homegrown star like Crosby or wanna use "his" money elsewhere and try to "buy the culture" with a guy like Brady...

I think the fr.tag is a fair bet and then we will see how the offseason goes. Can they keep JJ and still solve the QB situation? Can they invest enough into the OL and the Defense with a high $$ RB? Can they keep Adams and also Waller with the new QB and JJ's money?

Since I don't think that we are one Tom Brady away from the SB, I would rather sign Stidham for a solid deal as stop gap, bring back JJ as the bellcow and draft a QB early. Upgrade the OL and retool that D. 

[NYRaider]

Joe Mixon's deal (4 yr/ $48M):

Year 1: $8.1M cap hit | $16.2M dead cap

Year 2: $11.4M cap hit | $8.4M dead cap

Year 3: $12.8M cap hit | $5.5M dead cap

Year 4: $13.1M cap hit | $2.7M dead cap 

[NYRaider]

48 minutes ago, Rolni said:

Since I don't think that we are one Tom Brady away from the SB, I would rather sign Stidham for a solid deal as stop gap, bring back JJ as the bellcow and draft a QB early. Upgrade the OL and retool that D. 

Adams comments point to the team going for a splash move at QB. We didn't pay Adams/Renfrow/Waller and likely Jacobs to be average offensively because of below average QB play. They're going to go all in for Tom Brady, imo. I don't think this regime decided to move on from Carr to get worse at the position going into next season when they've clearly created a three year window with the offensive core. 

[Rolni]

You could be right and if we get Brady I will understand the reasoning behind it.

I just don't think he will put us over the top, but we could lose a guy like JJ, because of TB's money...

Regarding Adams I don't think it is a TB or bust situation. I can see him being fine with a rookie QB, if he thinks highly of that guy. He reportedly wanted to play for the Raiders, play with Carr and have a stable QB situation.

He can remain a Raider and help a young QB to grow and add to his own legacy with that IMO.

[NYRaider]

11 minutes ago, Rolni said:

You could be right and if we get Brady I will understand the reasoning behind it.

I just don't think he will put us over the top, but we could lose a guy like JJ, because of TB's money...

Regarding Adams I don't think it is a TB or bust situation. I can see him being fine with a rookie QB, if he thinks highly of that guy. He reportedly wanted to play for the Raiders, play with Carr and have a stable QB situation.

He can remain a Raider and help a young QB to grow and add to his own legacy with that IMO.

Tom Brady's cap hits in Tampa Bay has been $10.8M and $11.1M over the last two seasons. We can create like $80M in cap space with trades, cuts, and restructures while keeping our core intact. I think if anything potentially going from Carr to Brady makes it more likely that we're able to retain Jacobs. 

Davante Adams is currently trying to solidify his resume to become a Hall of Famer. He has done multiple interviews where he publicly acknowledged that one of the main reasons he wanted to leave Green Bay was because he wasn't sure how long Rodgers would be around and it could negatively impact his ability to pursue his own goals. Which are pretty obviously a Super Bowl (as he has said) and getting a Gold Jacket in Canton (which he has implied). 

He's going to be 30 years old next season and is on the verge of becoming the 11th player in NFL history with 100+ TD receptions. (Currently at 87) Being loyal and all of that is cool in the eyes of fans but Adams understands that he needs another 1-2 years with elite production to really solidify his chances of being a HOFer. I don't think he's going to want to sacrifice a year of his prime with an average or rookie QB.

We invested into Adams/Renfrow/Waller and will likely invest into Josh Jacobs this offseason. You don't ship Carr out of town to get worse at QB when you've invested so much into an offensive minded coach and one of the best groups of skill position players in the league.

[NYRaider]

Mark Davis has also been very public about our lack of home field advantage. We've seen him support splashy moves in the past to excite the fanbase (Gruden / AB / Adams), I'm not sure why he'd become conservative about chasing a Super Bowl now.