The Josh Jacobs Decision

[MrOaktown_56]

5 hours ago, Darbsk said:

I’m just curious if that’s McDaniels effect also. He’s always gotten great production out of RBs and Olines in the run game in New England. Maybe the OLine coach deserves some plaudits too as the run blocking seems pretty decent most games. Not saying we shouldn’t keep Jacobs but maybe, just maybe we can get similar production out of White/Random FA…… I can’t help but think whatever we decide to do with Jacobs will backfire 😄😄 Raiders curse!

The run schemes are definitely way better than last regime. But there are so many whiffed/poorly executed blocks. It's painful to watch.

[Darbsk]

3 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

The run schemes are definitely way better than last regime. But there are so many whiffed/poorly executed blocks. It's painful to watch.

But that’s also a little exciting really, imagine when we do get a bit more talent in there hopefully next off season. Two quality additions could make a big improvement and us totally achievable. Maybe add a RT in free agency and draft another OG in the top 3 rounds and we’d be pretty decent, James would still be somewhat of a question mark but he’s not terribad 😀

[Heart of Oak]

I am not anti-Waller, nor do I think he is stealing the money or sitting on IR because he has no desire to play anymore. However, given his injury status, our wish to bring back JJ and the fact that Waller is not the only good TE on our roster, I would aim to:

• Sign Jacobs up to a big contract (no more than 3 years) as he is currently 40% of our offense
• Trade Waller as he has little dead money on a trade next year, his injury issues are getting concerning, he will be 31 at the start of next year and we need the money for Jacobs. We would probably get at least a 2nd rounder for him, maybe package him with a 2nd rounder for a 1st. Either way Adams is about 30% of our offense and that leaves a measly 30% of offense for everyone else.
• Extend Moreau, guessing he would sign up for much less than Waller did...maybe like 3 years $15-$21m - not sure what contract would be asked for
• Draft a RG and defense, defense, defense. 

[jpaulthe1st]

1 hour ago, Heart of Oak said:

I am not anti-Waller, nor do I think he is stealing the money or sitting on IR because he has no desire to play anymore. However, given his injury status, our wish to bring back JJ and the fact that Waller is not the only good TE on our roster, I would aim to:

• Sign Jacobs up to a big contract (no more than 3 years) as he is currently 40% of our offense
• Trade Waller as he has little dead money on a trade next year, his injury issues are getting concerning, he will be 31 at the start of next year and we need the money for Jacobs. We would probably get at least a 2nd rounder for him, maybe package him with a 2nd rounder for a 1st. Either way Adams is about 30% of our offense and that leaves a measly 30% of offense for everyone else.
• Extend Moreau, guessing he would sign up for much less than Waller did...maybe like 3 years $15-$21m - not sure what contract would be asked for
• Draft a RG and defense, defense, defense. 

I don’t like the idea of paying Jacobs top of market $ for his year 4 production when he struggled to stay healthy the other 3 years. Chances are he will not live up to the contract and we will be on this same forum in 2-3 years complaining about how dumb it was to pay top dollar for a RB on a 2nd contract. McDaniels has shown he can get more than adequate production out of far lesser RB’s and imo we should leverage that strategy to build up other areas of our team (primarily within the trenches). 

Also, why pay Moreau that much money when he is barely a Top 30 TE in the NFL. I would much rather get a deal on a TE that is miscast in the wrong system (a la Hayden Hurst in Atlanta) and a cheap blocking TE. 

Smart GM’s and front offices understand that you can’t overpay for past production at low value positions. 

Edited November 30, 2022 by jpaulthe1st

[Steins Gate]

9 minutes ago, jpaulthe1st said:

I don’t like the idea of paying Jacobs top of market $ for his year 4 production when he struggled to stay healthy the other 3 years. Chances are he will not live up to the contract and we will be on this same forum in 2-3 years complaining about how dumb it was to pay top dollar for a RB on a 2nd contract.

This is why you only guarantee the first 2 years of the deal. After that, you can cut him with little dead cap.

[Heart of Oak]

1 hour ago, jpaulthe1st said:

I don’t like the idea of paying Jacobs top of market $ for his year 4 production when he struggled to stay healthy the other 3 years. Chances are he will not live up to the contract and we will be on this same forum in 2-3 years complaining about how dumb it was to pay top dollar for a RB on a 2nd contract. McDaniels has shown he can get more than adequate production out of far lesser RB’s and imo we should leverage that strategy to build up other areas of our team (primarily within the trenches). 

Also, why pay Moreau that much money when he is barely a Top 30 TE in the NFL. I would much rather get a deal on a TE that is miscast in the wrong system (a la Hayden Hurst in Atlanta) and a cheap blocking TE. 

Smart GM’s and front offices understand that you can’t overpay for past production at low value positions. 

On Jacobs, for being a guy who has struggled to stay healthy he has been over 1000 yards rushing 3 of 4 seasons and in the season he was not he still got almost 900 yards - so the production level has always been there despite injuries. I would only intend to give him a 3 year contract, 2 years guaranteed which leaves options open should he tail off. I generally don't believe in paying RBs, but if he is that Peterson / Tomlinson type guy then we need to keep him.

On Moreau I did say I was uncertain on what contract he would be looking for, but I think Moreau is much better than he gets credit for having been limited by the fact that Waller (when fit) eats snaps. Moreau is the perfect TE for McDanials imo, a guy who can both catch and block.

[ronjon1990]

16 minutes ago, Heart of Oak said:

On Jacobs, for being a guy who has struggled to stay healthy he has been over 1000 yards rushing 3 of 4 seasons and in the season he was not he still got almost 900 yards - so the production level has always been there despite injuries. I would only intend to give him a 3 year contract, 2 years guaranteed which leaves options open should he tail off. I generally don't believe in paying RBs, but if he is that Peterson / Tomlinson type guy then we need to keep him.

On Moreau I did say I was uncertain on what contract he would be looking for, but I think Moreau is much better than he gets credit for having been limited by the fact that Waller (when fit) eats snaps. Moreau is the perfect TE for McDanials imo, a guy who can both catch and block.

If we were playing fantasy football, this would carry a lot more weight with me. The problem isn't necessarily a lack of production as much as availability (ie: if a guy rushes for 200 yards per game across the first 5 games of the year but is then out or ineffective the other 12 games, he has the stats but they're padded. With practically any RB it's a concern, so it's not a Jacobs-specific gripe. Hence RBs rarely cashing in with their first teams anymore. 

With Jacobs' history, our cap situation overall, needs, and McDaniels really solid RB history.... it's a cumulative thing that makes it not worth it for me. 

[Heart of Oak]

18 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

If we were playing fantasy football, this would carry a lot more weight with me. The problem isn't necessarily a lack of production as much as availability (ie: if a guy rushes for 200 yards per game across the first 5 games of the year but is then out or ineffective the other 12 games, he has the stats but they're padded. With practically any RB it's a concern, so it's not a Jacobs-specific gripe. Hence RBs rarely cashing in with their first teams anymore. 

With Jacobs' history, our cap situation overall, needs, and McDaniels really solid RB history.... it's a cumulative thing that makes it not worth it for me. 

I can definitely respect both sides of the argument. There is a risk investing in a RB as they do take so many hits. Ordinarily I would be out, but he is hitting Marcus Allen like numbers...this is the first Raiders RB I have felt this way about since Allen.

[BackinBlack]

1 hour ago, Heart of Oak said:

On Jacobs, for being a guy who has struggled to stay healthy he has been over 1000 yards rushing 3 of 4 seasons and in the season he was not he still got almost 900 yards - so the production level has always been there despite injuries. 

The whole 1000 yard rusher thing really lost its importance when it went from a 12 game season to a 16, and now 17.
from 83 ypg, to now 59 ypg. 

That said, I do want to find a way to keep Jacobs. Just not sure why 1000 yards is such a big mark for RBs

[Heart of Oak]

10 hours ago, BackinBlack said:

The whole 1000 yard rusher thing really lost its importance when it went from a 12 game season to a 16, and now 17.
from 83 ypg, to now 59 ypg. 

That said, I do want to find a way to keep Jacobs. Just not sure why 1000 yards is such a big mark for RBs

It is not a big mark in that sense, rather it was just to show that there is plenty of production there for a RB who as described by jpaulthe1st as "struggled to stay helathy". I think 1000 yards is still a watermark for RBs though as you describe not to the same extent it was.

[drfrey13]

11 hours ago, BackinBlack said:

The whole 1000 yard rusher thing really lost its importance when it went from a 12 game season to a 16, and now 17.
from 83 ypg, to now 59 ypg. 

That said, I do want to find a way to keep Jacobs. Just not sure why 1000 yards is such a big mark for RBs

People like round numbers.

[true2form]

22 hours ago, BackinBlack said:

The whole 1000 yard rusher thing really lost its importance when it went from a 12 game season to a 16, and now 17.
from 83 ypg, to now 59 ypg. 

That said, I do want to find a way to keep Jacobs. Just not sure why 1000 yards is such a big mark for RBs

YPG or better yet YPC are way more important stats for me. 

It's easy to look at his last 12-13 games and say how good he's been.  His rookie year was pretty damn good too. 

However, it's that 30 game stretch of 2020 and most of 2021 where he was average to below average or worse. I remember points where I was happy to see whoever our backup at the time was in, because they actually had some burst.  He was banged up during that time and struggled to get 4 yards a carry most of those games, 13 of those games were 3.5 ypc or less.  

I love what he's been doing, but I haven't forgotten what he did either.

[MrOaktown_56]

On 12/1/2022 at 12:27 PM, true2form said:

YPG or better yet YPC are way more important stats for me. 

It's easy to look at his last 12-13 games and say how good he's been.  His rookie year was pretty damn good too. 

However, it's that 30 game stretch of 2020 and most of 2021 where he was average to below average or worse. I remember points where I was happy to see whoever our backup at the time was in, because they actually had some burst.  He was banged up during that time and struggled to get 4 yards a carry most of those games, 13 of those games were 3.5 ypc or less.  

I love what he's been doing, but I haven't forgotten what he did either.

I mean the blocking was god awful. I would say he had almost no room to work with.

[BayRaider]

On 11/30/2022 at 10:46 AM, jpaulthe1st said:

I don’t like the idea of paying Jacobs top of market $ for his year 4 production when he struggled to stay healthy the other 3 years. Chances are he will not live up to the contract and we will be on this same forum in 2-3 years complaining about how dumb it was to pay top dollar for a RB on a 2nd contract. McDaniels has shown he can get more than adequate production out of far lesser RB’s and imo we should leverage that strategy to build up other areas of our team (primarily within the trenches). 

Also, why pay Moreau that much money when he is barely a Top 30 TE in the NFL. I would much rather get a deal on a TE that is miscast in the wrong system (a la Hayden Hurst in Atlanta) and a cheap blocking TE. 

Smart GM’s and front offices understand that you can’t overpay for past production at low value positions. 

Bingo. Enjoy his monster year and move on. 

The Patriot way doesn’t commit to RB’s anyways. 

[BayRaider]

1 hour ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

I mean the blocking was god awful. I would say he had almost no room to work with.

You can use this as an excuse for him, to an extent. But not fully. Elite RB’s find a way. Look at some elite RB seasons with poors lines, some of them did it over and over. Jacobs is not an elite RB. He’s extremely good, but not worth tying top dollar into. It is also extremely risky, because he can 100% revert back to 2020 and 2021 Josh Jacobs. And then everyone complains how “dumb” it was after they were all saying pay him. I’m not paying someone for one monster season, especially a RB. That’s the last position I would pay after one monster season. 

Edited December 3, 2022 by BayRaider