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What's Lamar Jackson's trade value?


49ersfan

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On 12/6/2022 at 4:36 PM, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Tyler Huntley didn't seem to have a problem completing passes on Sunday, that's all I've really got to say right now. There are open guys to throw to, Lamar just doesn't see them for whatever reason.

It sounds like you won't be totally broken up if the Ravens do move on from him.

Will they, in your opinion? Pardon me if that's a silly question; I haven't been keeping up with Baltimore, but I am curious.

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2 hours ago, y*so*blu said:

It sounds like you won't be totally broken up if the Ravens do move on from him.

Will they, in your opinion? Pardon me if that's a silly question; I haven't been keeping up with Baltimore, but I am curious.

That post was from a month and a half ago lol a lot has changed since then.

In my opinion, they'll franchise tag him and then who knows. If I was Lamar I wouldn't wanna come back especially when you look around the league and compare his WR's to literally every other good QB.

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1 hour ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

That post was from a month and a half ago lol a lot has changed since then.

In my opinion, they'll franchise tag him and then who knows. If I was Lamar I wouldn't wanna come back especially when you look around the league and compare his WR's to literally every other good QB.

Peter King's segment on PFT was eye opening on this topic. Maybe the 3 first round picks is too rich to expect back for Lamar. That is the price I thought of as fair initially. 

The question is maybe, should the Ravens use the exclusive franchise tag or the non-exclusive franchise tag? If it's the non-exclusive, the Ravens would get a chance to match any offer, and 2 first round picks if they don't. 

The non-exclusive tag might be best, because then Lamar will see what his value is on the open market. Maybe he'll realize the Ravens were making a fair deal, and nobody will offer him 5-$250 million guaranteed. 

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Just now, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

And most likely your best player on a rookie contract

Yeah I'm sure there would be other draft capital and or player(s) involved in a potential Lamar trade. It'd likely be the biggest trade in NFL history in terms of compensation for the Ravens. 

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28 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Lamar is worth at least 3 first round picks.

23 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

as it should be

Now I'm not so sure anymore. Lamar is not worth an abstract amount, he's worth exactly as much another NFL team is willing to give up. 

Which franchise would give up three 1s+ for Lamar (and presumably sign him to a contract with at least $200 million in guarantees)? 

It would probably NOT be 1) an already contending team (b/c they already have a QB), 2) a rebuilding team (because you'd be more interested in a rookie QB to develop).

So once you narrow the possibilities to middling teams with talent that are a QB away, you have to consider that not all coaches/teams would mesh with Lamar's skillset. Some coaches want fast, decisive decision makes, and that isn't Lamar's strength. You'd also want a warm-weather team since Lamar hasn't shown to tolerate the cold much. 

IMO Atlanta might be the best fit. But if there isn't a huge market for Lamar's services, the price to trade will not be that high. 

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Jackson probably is worth 3 1st-round picks + the huge contract he would get immediately after.  He's a great player and he wins games.  And I do think the last two seasons were an unfortunate case of injury luck.

With that said, maybe I'm wrong and it is a sign of things to come?  QBs get hit enough as is and he runs the ball 10 times a game and plays a game that makes him more susceptible to taking hits.  This recent injury doesn't concern me as much as his slow recovery from it.  It was estimated to be a 1-3 week injury.  Everyone heals differently, I get that, and it is very possible that was the case here.  But can we expect him to recover slow from injuries in the future? 

Newton was never as good as Jackson. But I also saw how much worse he got after his body started breaking down (and Newton didn't run as much as Jackson) and I don't think I'd want to be the team to find out if it happens to Jackson, after giving up all that for him.

Edited by iknowcool
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I don’t think a team would do three firsts if they didn’t have two this year, tbh. If you flipped his MVP season and this one or last, I could see it. The value might be the same, just can’t envision a team mortgaging their future that far in advance. 

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1 hour ago, AngusMcFife said:

Now I'm not so sure anymore. Lamar is not worth an abstract amount, he's worth exactly as much another NFL team is willing to give up. 

Which franchise would give up three 1s+ for Lamar (and presumably sign him to a contract with at least $200 million in guarantees)? 

It would probably NOT be 1) an already contending team (b/c they already have a QB), 2) a rebuilding team (because you'd be more interested in a rookie QB to develop).

So once you narrow the possibilities to middling teams with talent that are a QB away, you have to consider that not all coaches/teams would mesh with Lamar's skillset. Some coaches want fast, decisive decision makes, and that isn't Lamar's strength. You'd also want a warm-weather team since Lamar hasn't shown to tolerate the cold much. 

IMO Atlanta might be the best fit. But if there isn't a huge market for Lamar's services, the price to trade will not be that high. 

 

31 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

I don’t think a team would do three firsts if they didn’t have two this year, tbh. If you flipped his MVP season and this one or last, I could see it. The value might be the same, just can’t envision a team mortgaging their future that far in advance. 

Houston traded Watson and a 2024 sixth-round pick to the Browns in exchange for first-round picks in 2022, 2023 and 2024; a third-round pick in 2022; and a fourth-round pick in 2024. That resulted in Houston acquiring the 13th and 107th overall picks of the 2022 NFL Draft.

Deshaun Watson signed a 5 year, $230,000,000 contract with the Cleveland Browns, including a $44,965,000 signing bonus, $230,000,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $46,000,000.

Mind you this is all AFTER the allegations came out. 

Do we really think Lamar isn't as worth as much as Deshaun "Derrick" Watson.

Lamar's one downside is injuries but like ehhh....injuries in today's NFL vs. a PR ****storm I'd say balances out.

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21 minutes ago, Xmad said:

Mind you this is all AFTER the allegations came out. 

Do we really think Lamar isn't as worth as much as Deshaun "Derrick" Watson.

Lamar's one downside is injuries but like ehhh....injuries in today's NFL vs. a PR ****storm I'd say balances out.

I’m obviously not going to mitigate Watson’s…let’s call them “issues”, lol. But I think there certainly was a belief that Watson was on the cusp of entering the elite QB category, sort of where Burrow is right now. And right or wrong, I don’t think Lamar has that expectation right now and on top of missing some games, is coming off a couple so-so seasons. Teams will mortgage themselves for a potential elite QB, I’m not sure Lamar’s viewed that way right now.

All it takes is one team, though. I was shocked Watson went for what he did too.

Edited by Yin-Yang
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On 1/16/2023 at 6:17 PM, AngusMcFife said:

The non-exclusive tag might be best, because then Lamar will see what his value is on the open market. Maybe he'll realize the Ravens were making a fair deal, and nobody will offer him 5-$250 million guaranteed. 

I think you'd be surprised.

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