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What's Lamar Jackson's trade value?


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13 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

The problem is that in order for the Jets to land Lamar they have to give up significant draft capital + at least one good young player (most likely Garrett Wilson or Sauce Gardner).

Are they still AFCE favorites after doing that?

I doubt they’ll give up a star player, if they get Lamar, they are going all in. Might have to give up two 1sts, a second, a third, and a fifth. I doubt Ravens get three firsts. 

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27 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

The problem is that in order for the Jets to land Lamar they have to give up significant draft capital + at least one good young player (most likely Garrett Wilson or Sauce Gardner).

Are they still AFCE favorites after doing that?

They would not give up either of those dudes for Lamar. Maybe that’s what it would take, but I’d laugh if I were the Jets and they demanded that those two be included. I don’t think the value for Lamar is any higher than Watson. It’ll cost a bunch of picks, but he’s not good enough to also have to send away your elite talent under 24 years old. 

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18 hours ago, Forge said:

And the thing is, that gives him even more reason to push for a fully guaranteed deal, if we are being honest. The injuries are basically widening the chasm 

And that's fine if it's with the ravens, as he has given them everything on a rookie contract.  Other teams' GMs aren't going to feel the need to compensate for his past achievements though.

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If i'm a GM, i'm not so sure I commit trading multiple first round picks, good young players on rookie contracts, and giving out $50 million plus a year (which he wants guaranteed for 5+ years) for a guy who has missed significant time with injuries in each of the past two seasons.

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8 hours ago, BayRaider said:

I doubt they’ll give up a star player, if they get Lamar, they are going all in. Might have to give up two 1sts, a second, a third, and a fifth. I doubt Ravens get three firsts. 

Then he's not going anywhere this offseason tbh.

The Ravens have always prided themselves on getting what they view as superior compensation for a player, and "winning" the trade. For better or worse its just how the FO operates. They just got a 1st round pick for a disgruntled Hollywood Brown (who had one year left on his rookie deal before he was going to demand high dollar WR $) and a 3rd this past draft.

If they don't get offered something they view as great compensation, they'll just tag him, let him sit out of training camp, and they'll play the season with him next year.

The Ravens have more leverage here than is being let on. They still have team control of Lamar for the next 2 years with the ability to tag him twice, and he can't sit out because he won't accrue seasons to move on. If a team isn't willing to give up 2 firsts+ star players and/or additional first round picks, he's not getting dealt, plain and simple.

Edited by Ray Reed
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22 minutes ago, Ray Reed said:

If they don't get offered something they view as great compensation, they'll just tag him, let him sit out of training camp, and they'll play the season with him next year.

The Ravens have more leverage here than is being let on. They still have team control of Lamar for the next 2 years with the ability to tag him twice, and he can't sit out because he won't accrue seasons to move on.

This is true, but you are likely to see a carbon copy of this year more than likely, unless he stays 100% healthy.  If he has an injury, he won't be coming back early or pushing through to make a super bowl run, he'll sit out and collect his check until he is 100%.  So while the Ravens certainly do have leverage, they don't have all the leverage unless they are good with scraping into the playoffs and being an early out because their star QB is disgruntled.

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He’s probably worth 3 1st, or something equivalent with players involved. I predicted Lamar’s future. I said “enjoy it while it lasts” because it won’t for very long. He still has some good years ahead of him but I’d start to expect inconsistency with play and injuries and for him to drop off a cliff around age 27-30.

Edited by sammymvpknight
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31 minutes ago, Ray Reed said:

Then he's not going anywhere this offseason tbh.

The Ravens have always prided themselves on getting what they view as superior compensation for a player, and "winning" the trade. For better or worse its just how the FO operates. They just got a 1st round pick for a disgruntled Hollywood Brown (who had one year left on his rookie deal before he was going to demand high dollar WR $) and a 3rd this past draft.

If they don't get offered something they view as great compensation, they'll just tag him, let him sit out of training camp, and they'll play the season with him next year.

The Ravens have more leverage here than is being let on. They still have team control of Lamar for the next 2 years with the ability to tag him twice, and he can't sit out because he won't accrue seasons to move on. If a team isn't willing to give up 2 firsts+ star players and/or additional first round picks, he's not getting dealt, plain and simple.

I don't think you're getting 2 firsts plus star players and more. I think you'd ultimately get 2 first round picks plus a 2nd and 3rd but nobody is giving up 3 firsts plus or 2 firsts and star players for a guy who's asking for a cap crippling contract. He's a good player with one year of elite production and his game is predicated on his ability to run so you have to alter your scheme and pray he doesn't get hurt. To me, this is nothing like Wilson or Watson becoming available as they are far superior passers. Well in Wilson's case, WAS I should say because we have no clue what he is now? Don't take this as me saying Lamar isn't a valuable player because he is I just don't think he's as valuable to other clubs as he is to Baltimore that has a system built around his talents. 

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To be clear, I think Lamar will fetch more than what he should, and I mean no disrespect by that, because he's a very good quarterback. He's unique athletically, capable albeit not great at throwing the ball, and average at best in the pocket. In the right system with the right scheme and weapons, I think he could be very dangerous.

That said, you're not just going to have to pony up ~3 first round draft picks, but you're going to have to pay him $200 million+ guaranteed, and given that his best asset is his Madden-esque athletic ability and he's been hurt the last 2 years...meaning that his prime likely isn't going to be nearly as long as many due to these athletic abilities fading earlier than other lasting ones...that would make me skeptical.

Granted, it's always possible that he evolves into a good pocket passer and still is dangerous with his legs for a bit, but I think that's not as likely to happen as the other.

I think a team like the Jets who have a hot seat GM/HC with a ton of young talent, copious cap space, and are desperate for that "final piece" at the position make the move.

Maybe the Colts.

Maybe a darkhorse team like the Seahawks.

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1 hour ago, Ray Reed said:

The Ravens have more leverage here than is being let on. They still have team control of Lamar for the next 2 years with the ability to tag him twice, and he can't sit out because he won't accrue seasons to move on. 

And what happens if Lamar plays on the tag twice like Dak and Cousins did?  They will then have to decide if they want to meet the contract demands of a 28, not 26, year old Lamar Jackson (so same spot they are in now except Lamar is older) or Lamar can leave and they get nothing out of it.

They have some leverage but they also need to figure out what the plan is.  Because if they really don't think they will come to terms with him (and maybe they will, I don't know much about the whole thing other than Lamar wants a fully guaranteed deal), then right now is the best time to trade him.  Because of his style of play, his value is likely only going to go down the older he gets, especially if he gets hurt again.  

I also wonder if the Ravens would actually tag him a 3rd time if it came down to it.  That would be the game changer.  Because if I'm Jackson and I don't get extended by the Ravens or traded, then next year I'm telling them that you won't enter negotiations with any team (killing any potential trade) and telling them you will play on the 2nd franchise tag and that you are going to either leave in free agency in 2025 or they will have to tag you a 3rd time at what would be a crazy price tag.

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2 hours ago, INbengalfan said:

And that's fine if it's with the ravens, as he has given them everything on a rookie contract.  Other teams' GMs aren't going to feel the need to compensate for his past achievements though.

They may feel that way to acquire him though. Kirk cousins got a fully guaranteed deal when he hit the open market

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