What's Lamar Jackson's trade value?

[MWil23]

On 1/19/2023 at 12:20 PM, seminoles1 said:

Who says no?

Jets receive: Lamar Jackson

Ravens receive: Elijah Moore, Jermaine Johnson II, #13, #74, 2024 1st, 2024 2nd, 2025 2nd

Yep, this would be a very reasonable package.

Moore wanted out...there is his out.

JJII is adequate but not great thus far...but I can see the hesitation to trade him IF the NYJ are high on him, but in all fairness, it's likely a 3 1st Round package and that would be seen as your 3rd 1st Round pick.

Perhaps you then say it's not a 2025 2nd and instead something like a 2025 3rd or 4th if you throw him in.

Essentially:

2 1sts plus a rookie 1st Rounder

a 2nd

...a 3rd and either a future 3rd or a future 4th

[MWil23]

13 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

This is why I'm laughing at the Jets fans saying no to Jermaine Johnson and Elijah Moore and acting like you're mortgaging your future with that lol like nope you still have your centerpieces AND you're getting a proven MVP QB, and apparently that's not enough? lol

Correct, I agree with you.

Now, IF you're that high on JJII, then I can see them removing the "3rd" 1st Rounder as JJ2 is a graded/picked first rounder and then that pick turning into a 3 or a 4, but still.

You're giving up on Moore who wants out anyway, that's not really a lot of value, sorry Jets fans.

You're keeping Wilson and Sauce.

If anything, if Baltimore offered that trade and refused to budge on the 3rd 1st, I'd make them take Zach Wilson off of my hands by pawning him off and getting him out of the building.

Jets: We'd like to get rid of the 2025 1st and make that a 4th

Ravens: No, this is non negotiable

Jets: Fine, but the only way we say yes is if you take on Zach. We assume you don't want to pick up his 5th Year Option

Ravens: Ugh, fine, but we're cutting him

[Nabbs4u]

5 hours ago, THE DUKE said:

Prediction: Ravens tag Lamar with the non-exclusive franchise tag and he signs somewhere with the Ravens receiving two first round picks in return, and nothing else.

I think the Ravens FO would be ecstatic if that happened because then they can pretend they tried in good faith but Lamar chose the money and to go somewhere else.

This way thier fan base doesn't completely turn on them for intentionally not signing him.

I just don't see the long list of suitable candidates with the cap space and willing to give up in some cases,  top 5-10 picks. I could see these team and those picks in the package though.

 

Texans #12

Jets #13

WTF #16

TB #19

Sea #20

Edited January 20, 2023 by Nabbs4u

[Soggust]

The problem with Lamar's valuation is that while he is a proven MVP QB, he's also arguably declined each year since winning the MVP. He's basically been Kyler Murray since 2020 (I don't think that's the slam some people will take that as, just surprised me).

Then you add in the injuries of the past two years and the contract issues, it diminishes some of the shine.

I instinctually think 3 1sts + change because of the MVP + Age, but then I think "How valuable is his age if he's a mobile QB with injuries that doesn't have the projected longevity of a less mobile QB?" And he needs guaranteed money? 

But my team will be a SB contender if I sign him? I mean, the Ravens are one of the best run organizations in the NFL and they didn't win one with him, so why would I trust the Jets to (no offense lol sry Jets fans)? 

All of this, but at the end of the day, he's a freakin 26 year old former MVP QB lol. 

TLDR; - I got no idea what he's worth lol 

[THE DUKE]

16 minutes ago, Soggust said:

All of this, but at the end of the day, he's a freakin 26 year old former MVP QB lol. 

Who wants $50+ million a year guaranteed over at least 5 years (if not more) and has battled injuries each of the last two seasons while he is young.  History says those injury issues aren't going to go away as he gets older.

I don't think anyone gives him the guarantees he wants, honestly.  And if they do, they are fools.  He's always one hit away from losing 50% of his value as a player given that so much of his value is tied into his ability to run.  Guys like Burrow, Mahomes, Allen, Lawrence, are capable movers, but they can blow out a knee and retain most of their value, because most of their value is arm talent.

[GangGreen420]

1 hour ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

This is why I'm laughing at the Jets fans saying no to Jermaine Johnson and Elijah Moore and acting like you're mortgaging your future with that lol like nope you still have your centerpieces AND you're getting a proven MVP QB, and apparently that's not enough? lol

I mean he was an MVP three years ago and has practically no success in the playoffs. Couple that with the injury concerns, the amount of games he’s missed the last two seasons, and the massive contract he wants.. it’s a no for me. Even without the players, I still wouldn’t make the move. Laugh if you want, but there’s a lot of fans that feel this way.

[Dr A W Niloc]

7 hours ago, MWil23 said:

 I'd make them take Zach Wilson

Were you to bring up the name "Zach Wilson" during negotiations you'd learn what the Japanese word "mokusatsu" means.

[4thandInches]

6 hours ago, GangGreen420 said:

I mean he was an MVP three years ago and has practically no success in the playoffs. Couple that with the injury concerns, the amount of games he’s missed the last two seasons, and the massive contract he wants.. it’s a no for me. Even without the players, I still wouldn’t make the move. Laugh if you want, but there’s a lot of fans that feel this way.

I don’t blame you guys thinking this, that trade and 5 years mega money commitment is a very risky bet. I’d say no.

[wackywabbit]

It's easy to talk about 3 years of some draft assets and 5 years of some cap space going away not being worth a move. The reality is that 3 years of draft assets and 5 years of cap space is going to be spent anyway by every team and by many teams building something that will not come remotely close to super bowl contention in this decade. 

[NYRaider]

On 1/20/2023 at 10:25 AM, Soggust said:

The problem with Lamar's valuation is that while he is a proven MVP QB, he's also arguably declined each year since winning the MVP. He's basically been Kyler Murray since 2020 (I don't think that's the slam some people will take that as, just surprised me).

Then you add in the injuries of the past two years and the contract issues, it diminishes some of the shine.

I instinctually think 3 1sts + change because of the MVP + Age, but then I think "How valuable is his age if he's a mobile QB with injuries that doesn't have the projected longevity of a less mobile QB?" And he needs guaranteed money? 

It's still insane to me that he only has one season with 3,000+ passing yards. 

Watson was just traded for 3 1sts, 1 3rd, and 1 4th. And he had way more baggage, had sat out for a season, and he needed a new contract as well. I can't see anyway that they'd take less than that or at least something in that ball park.

[NYRaider]

On 1/20/2023 at 9:55 AM, Nabbs4u said:

I think the Ravens FO would be ecstatic if that happened because then they can pretend they tried in good faith but Lamar chose the money and to go somewhere else.

This way thier fan base doesn't completely turn on them for intentionally not signing him.

I just don't see the long list of suitable candidates with the cap space and willing to give up in some cases,  top 5-10 picks. I could see these team and those picks in the package though.

Texans #12

Jets #13

WTF #16

TB #19

Sea #20

I'd add the Falcons and Panthers onto the list. They were both super aggressive in their pursuit for Watson a year ago and have top 10 picks they could offer this season.

[Falconof Shadows]

15 hours ago, NYRaider said:

I'd add the Falcons and Panthers onto the list. They were both super aggressive in their pursuit for Watson a year ago and have top 10 picks they could offer this season.

Praying to God Falcons stay away would be a terrible decision. 

[incognito_man]

At some point more teams are gonna realize the trick is to get great VALUE at QB position. 

It's so much smarter to spend those resources and move up to #1 or whatever and take your favorite prospect than it would be to spend it on a known commodity that's going to be REALLY expensive from day 1 and hinder your team building.

[NYRaider]

Just now, incognito_man said:

At some point more teams are gonna realize the trick is to get great VALUE at QB position. 

It's so much smarter to spend those resources and move up to #1 or whatever and take your favorite prospect than it would be to spend it on a known commodity that's going to be REALLY expensive from day 1 and hinder your team building.

Trading up to #1 costs so much that it also hinders your ability to build a team. The Rams and Buccaneers both took the opposite approach and were able to win a Super Bowl.

[incognito_man]

2 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Trading up to #1 costs so much that it also hinders your ability to build a team. The Rams and Buccaneers both took the opposite approach and were able to win a Super Bowl.

The Buccaneers did not trade for Brady...

The Rams gamble paid off. But are now on the other side of it. They got pretty lucky and beat the 17th ranked DVOA team by 3 points as well. I wouldn't be shocked to find out that Bengals team was one of the weakest SB teams in history.

Edited January 26, 2023 by incognito_man