What's Lamar Jackson's trade value?

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

1 hour ago, AngusMcFife said:

Lamar is a way better thrower of the football now than he was in 2019.

Is he?

Passing			Advanced Passing
Rk	Player	Year	QBrec	Att	Cmp%	Y/A+	NY/A+	AY/A+	ANY/A+	Cmp%+	TD%+	Int%+	Sack%+	Rate+
1	Lamar Jackson	2019	13-2-0	401	66.1	110	114	123	125	106	143	114	108	128
2	Lamar Jackson	2022	7-4-0	322	62.1	96	99	101	102	89	110	101	96	101

This doesn't really say accuracy, but I mean none of these stats are even close, especially the completion %. Then we get into more detailed stats particularly around accuracy:

Year	Money Throws	Danger Plays	Interceptable Passes	Accuracy Rating	True Completion Percentage	Deep Ball CMP	Pressured CMP	PA CMP	RZ CMP	Clean Pocket CMP
2019	8th	24th	22nd	6th	12th	23rd	19th	17th	12th	8th
2022	21st	29th	36th	16th	19th	31st	10th	24th	24th	27th

source: https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/lamar-jackson/

Every single stat has regressed since 2019 with regards to accuracy. So what evidence is there that Lamar right now is a better thrower of the football than in 2019?

1 hour ago, AngusMcFife said:

He just doesn't have a dominant offensive line, RBs, and WR corps, and DCs have figured out ways to counter Roman's scheme with Lamar. The easy throws that were available in 2019 just aren't there any more. 

Or, more easily put, Lamar himself has also regressed on top of this. In 2019 we didn't have dominant WR's either - heck we hardly even had good ones, but Lamar still dominated.

1 hour ago, AngusMcFife said:

If you put Lamar in a system with strong O-line play and good skill players run by a top offensive coach, he could easily win MVP again.

He could, yeah, but let's revisit my original question: What about Lamar has this coaching staff not already unlocked? He led the league in TD passes. He's already the greatest rushing QB of all-time. He was a unanimous MVP - IN THIS SYSTEM - What are we missing?

[AngusMcFife]

23 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

How Vick and Cunningham aged has virtually nothing to do with how Lamar is going to age. Having comparable play styles doesn’t matter with such a tiny sample size. Demarco Murray and AP had similar play styles.  Peyton Manning and Tom Brady had similar play styles. 

Fair enough. Based on the evidence you presented, it seems that there is no discernible way to know how a player like Lamar will age. 

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I agree that assuming he wears down is just that - an assumption. However, it’s not completely baseless. Naturally, getting hit more is generally going to lead to more wear. Doesn’t mean it’s necessarily a given, but it doesn’t help the odds.

If you want to talk about odds, that's fine. The famous "curse of 370" generally showed that if RBs exceeded a certain threshold of 370 carries in a season, they would soon decline (with a few exceptions).

Lamar will generally average around 150 carries per season. So he is not even close to approaching a dangerous level of carries that would cause "wear".

Further, I will add that Lamar rarely get tackled by defensive lineman, and he rarely takes big hits (unlike Burrow or Josh Allen).   

Your theory that having 150 carries per year will lead to more "wear" is not really based on any evidence. All we can assess about Lamar Jackson is that, through 5 years, he has been pretty healthy, with the only major injury being a bone bruise that kept him out for 5 games.

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Saying Lamar will age well until nearly 40 because two HOFish running backs did it while taking more hits is more of an outlandish fantasy than saying he’ll wear down. Russ took less hits than Peterson too, how’s he aging? So did Cam. So did Vick. So did McNabb. You could argue Lamar’s the best athlete amongst them, but when has athleticism ever been tied to longevity/durability? Three of the most iron man examples of QBing (Brady, Favre, Eli) were not special in terms of athleticism. 

But based on everything here, there is no reason to assume Lamar will decline. Russell Wilson's decline at age 34 isn't particularly salient, since Lamar is 25. If the caveat is that Lamar might decline in 9 years, I don't think that is a convincing case not to trade for him. 

There is a loud chorus of people saying from day one that Lamar will definitely decline quickly and won't be worth a second contract. At this stage, he has proven himself relatively durable. I see no reason why he wouldn't be productive until his early/mid-thirties, which is when his second contract will be up. 

When you think of the reckless running and vicious shots that Burrow and Josh Allen take, and Lamar is the one that everyone questions his longevity, I think that is silly. 

Now if Lamar suffers a debilitating injury this weekend I will obviously delete this post. 😉

[Soko]

12 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

Your theory that having 150 carries per year will lead to more "wear" is not really based on any evidence. All we can assess about Lamar Jackson is that, through 5 years, he has been pretty healthy, with the only major injury being a bone bruise that kept him out for 5 games.

I mean, you just brought that up out of nowhere and suddenly that’s my theory? Lol. 

12 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

But based on everything here, there is no reason to assume Lamar will decline. Russell Wilson's decline at age 34 isn't particularly salient, since Lamar is 25. If the caveat is that Lamar might decline in 9 years, I don't think that is a convincing case not to trade for him. 

There is a loud chorus of people saying from day one that Lamar will definitely decline quickly and won't be worth a second contract. At this stage, he has proven himself relatively durable. I see no reason why he wouldn't be productive until his early/mid-thirties, which is when his second contract will be up. 

When you think of the reckless running and vicious shots that Burrow and Josh Allen take, and Lamar is the one that everyone questions his longevity, I think that is silly. 

Now if Lamar suffers a debilitating injury this weekend I will obviously delete this post. 😉

I don’t think that “loud chorus” is present on this forum. I said this in another thread about player’s sizes/weights, but you (they) have to fight conventional thinking a little. 

More hits = more injuries/more wear? Makes total sense. Doesn’t even really make you think twice, that’s obvious. But yeah, then you see Burrow tearing his ACL as a rookie. Stafford dealing with elbow stuff now. Herbert getting his ribs caved in. Guys in their young-to-mid 30s, looking like they’re about ready to wrap it up. And then you have Lamar, probably the most prolific rushing QB, and he’s largely been healthy thus far into his career. 

Do I still cringe when I see a guy like Allen taking unnecessary hits? Of course. But predicting injuries/career longevity is such a fickle thing. Trying to guess how a guy who’s 25 will look when he’s 30, 33, 36…is basically just a guess. 

I’m actually with you on your final point, just wanted to throw my two cents on the “Vick at 30” and “Adrian Peterson longevity” comments, I don’t find either particularly comparable here (because I don’t find any comparisons relevant as far as predicting injury/wear/longevity in this case).

[AngusMcFife]

47 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Every single stat has regressed since 2019 with regards to accuracy. So what evidence is there that Lamar right now is a better thrower of the football than in 2019?

One example I have is looking at his deep ball. For instance, in the 2019 Miami game, he hits Hollywood over the top for an 83 yard TD. He kind of flips it and the ball has a loopy trajectory and weak spiral. 

Then look at his deep ball TD to Bateman this year or the 62-yard pass to Desean Jackson last week. He really drives the ball and throws a tight spiral. 

His current mechanics are just way sharper, and can function much better in bad weather than his 2019 mechanics. 

I'm not going to argue with the statistics, because obviously Lamar was a statistically better passer in 2019. But as a thrower of a football, his current mechanics are vastly improved. If you were to go to a QB camp with 2019 Lamar and 2022 Lamar, 100 out of 100 coaches would take the 2022 Lamar based on how he throws the ball. 

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Or, more easily put, Lamar himself has also regressed on top of this. In 2019 we didn't have dominant WR's either - heck we hardly even had good ones, but Lamar still dominated.

He could, yeah, but let's revisit my original question: What about Lamar has this coaching staff not already unlocked? He led the league in TD passes. He's already the greatest rushing QB of all-time. He was a unanimous MVP - IN THIS SYSTEM - What are we missing?

I just think you are not considering how much context impacts QB efficiency. In 2019 Brady was a league average QB, then he goes to the stacked Bucs and wins a Super Bowl and is MVP candidate the next year. Brady is the exact same player, but his context changes him from an average QB to a top 3 QB. 

The Ravens had a loaded O-line, awesome TE corps of 3 plus players, and excellent complimentary RBs. Roman's schemes were fresh. 

Lamar is a better player now, but we have an okay O-line (given Stanley has missed a lot of time), only 1 good TE, and injured RBs in and out of the lineup. And Roman's scheme has been countered. 

Edited November 30, 2022 by AngusMcFife

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

9 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

One example I have is looking at his deep ball. For instance, in the 2019 Miami game, he hits Hollywood over the top for an 83 yard TD. He kind of flips it and the ball has a loopy trajectory and weak spiral. 

Then look at his deep ball TD to Bateman this year or the 62-yard pass to Desean Jackson last week. He really drives the ball and throws a tight spiral. 

His current mechanics are just way sharper, and can function much better in bad weather than his 2019 mechanics. 

I'm not going to argue with the statistics, because obviously Lamar was a statistically better passer in 2019. But as a thrower of a football, his current mechanics are vastly improved. If you were to go to a QB with 2019 Lamar and 2022 Lamar, 100 out of 100 coaches would take the 2022 Lamar based on how he throws the ball. 

So how do you explain the fact that his mechanics "look better" but his accuracy is significantly worse? It doesn't matter if you're throwing a tight spiral if that ball isn't anywhere near a WR, right?

9 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

I just think you are not considering how much context impacts QB efficiency. In 2019 Brady was a league average QB, then he goes to the stacked Bucs and wins a Super Bowl and is MVP candidate the next year. Brady is the exact same player, but his context changes him from an average QB to a top 3 QB. 

The Ravens had a loaded O-line, awesome TE corps of 3 plus players, and excellent complimentary RBs. Roman's schemes were fresh. 

Lamar is a better player now, but we have an okay O-line (given Stanley has missed a lot of time), only 1 good TE, and injured RBs in and out of the lineup. And Roman's scheme has been countered. 

None of this explains Lamar's individual statistics, such as his accuracy ratings. It just doesn't add up - I realize the context has changed, but Lamar is part of that context and I just cannot really take seriously the notion that he's somehow a better player now than in 2019 when there's just absolutely no evidence to support that. He's a worse runner, he's slower, his decision making isn't improved, his accuracy is notably worse. The only thing that you can say that makes it seem like he's better is "well if you look at his mechanics", and even then he does most of the same things he did in 2019 - sidearm throws, sloppy footwork, panic in the pocket, etc..

The OL is #2 in Pass Block Win Rate this year, behind only KC: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/34536376/2022-nfl-pass-rushing-run-stopping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings-top-players-teams

They are also #1 in Run Block Win Rate this year, so where is this notion that the OL is "okay" coming from?

[INbengalfan]

3 hours ago, AngusMcFife said:

RGIII only had one successful season, so I don't really think using him as a comp is warranted. 

Cam was more of a big bruising runner, so I think Vick and Cunningham are better comps. If Lamar gets a debilitating shoulder injury like Cam that would be a problem. But I see QBs like Josh Allen and Burrow take much worse shots than Lamar.  

Obviously I can't predict the future. But I think Lamar could easily win another MVP if the right offensive situation presents itself. How long his prime will last is up in the air, but I were another team I wouldn't have any concerns about the next 5 years or so. 

I wouldn't either.  I'm just saying he is probably in his prime now, and won't get much better before the inevitable decline.  

[AngusMcFife]

2 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

So how do you explain the fact that his mechanics "look better" but his accuracy is significantly worse? It doesn't matter if you're throwing a tight spiral if that ball isn't anywhere near a WR, right?

Because the windows he has to throw are considerably tighter, and he is forced to throw to areas in the field where he struggles. 

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None of this explains Lamar's individual statistics, such as his accuracy ratings. It just doesn't add up - I realize the context has changed, but Lamar is part of that context and I just cannot really take seriously the notion that he's somehow a better player now than in 2019 when there's just absolutely no evidence to support that. He's a worse runner, he's slower

In 2019 he was averaging 6.9 yards a carry, and this year it's 6.8. His rushing DVOA is 5% higher this year than it was in 2019. I think you are fondly remembering 2019 without actually digging into the efficiency. 

He put on 15 pounds and grew 1 inch, so he is definitely a different style of runner. But by no measure is he "worse" 

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his decision making isn't improved, his accuracy is notably worse. The only thing that you can say that makes it seem like he's better is "well if you look at his mechanics", and even then he does most of the same things he did in 2019 - sidearm throws, sloppy footwork, panic in the pocket, etc..

The OL is #2 in Pass Block Win Rate this year, behind only KC: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/34536376/2022-nfl-pass-rushing-run-stopping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings-top-players-teams

I'm not really familiar with these stats, but I see the Chicago Bears are ranked as the 3rd best pass block unit. That alone should disqualify it as a useful stat. 

If you want to go back to the thread in the Ravens forum "Best OL in Ravens History," I see you are effusively praising the 2019 OL and don't mention this year's OL at all. Interesting how in this thread your opinion changes. This year's OL is quite good when Stanley is at LT, but at this point Stanley has only played roughly 40% of snaps. 

 

[AngusMcFife]

1 hour ago, INbengalfan said:

I wouldn't either.  I'm just saying he is probably in his prime now, and won't get much better before the inevitable decline.  

Agree to disagree. He's only ever played in a Harbaugh/Roman offense, with Newsome/DeCosta WRs. Harbaugh has no knowledge of offensive football whatsoever, Roman runs a college offense, and Newsome/DeCosta have always been bad at drafting and developing WR. We have no idea how Lamar could grow and flourish with a cutting edge offensive mind at the helm. As I mentioned before there are numerous examples of running QBs having their best years in their 30s (Cunningham, Vick, Steve Young). 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

33 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

Because the windows he has to throw are considerably tighter, and he is forced to throw to areas in the field where he struggles. 

What is this based on, besides the eye test?

33 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

In 2019 he was averaging 6.9 yards a carry, and this year it's 6.8. His rushing DVOA is 5% higher this year than it was in 2019. I think you are fondly remembering 2019 without actually digging into the efficiency. 

He put on 15 pounds and grew 1 inch, so he is definitely a different style of runner. But by no measure is he "worse" 

Slower and breaking less tackles, to me, is "worse". 

33 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

I'm not really familiar with these stats, but I see the Chicago Bears are ranked as the 3rd best pass block unit. That alone should disqualify it as a useful stat. 

Okay show me a metric or anything that says that our OL is anything but great this year pass blocking.

33 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

If you want to go back to the thread in the Ravens forum "Best OL in Ravens History," I see you are effusively praising the 2019 OL and don't mention this year's OL at all. Interesting how in this thread your opinion changes. This year's OL is quite good when Stanley is at LT, but at this point Stanley has only played roughly 40% of snaps. 

Yeah, the 2019 OL was dominant and this year's OL isn't near what that one was, particularly in the run blocking category. Does that mean it's bad? OL play around the league as a whole is pretty awful this year.

[AngusMcFife]

6 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Okay show me a metric or anything that says that our OL is anything but great this year pass blocking.

FO has the Ravens ranked 18th in pass blocking. 

We'll just have to disagree on Lamar. I think he's a better player with worse around him, with an offensive scheme that has been solved to a certain degree. (Remember when coaches around the league were calling the Lions DC about how to defend https://ravenswire.usatoday.com/2021/09/30/lions-dc-aaron-glenn-says-he-had-multiple-coaches-call-him-about-how-to-defend-ravens-offense/). We've both watched every snap of his career so we just see it differently.  

 

[Soko]

@AFlaccoSeagulls Statistics aside, you’re generally of the opinion that Lamar throws it just as clean as he did in 2019? I’m with you on him regressing a small amount as a runner, but his deep/outside ball was a weakness then that I’m not sure is as bad now. Doesn’t or won’t necessarily show up on a stat sheet because the offense as a whole regressed.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

19 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

@AFlaccoSeagulls Statistics aside, you’re generally of the opinion that Lamar throws it just as clean as he did in 2019? I’m with you on him regressing a small amount as a runner, but his deep/outside ball was a weakness then that I’m not sure is as bad now. Doesn’t or won’t necessarily show up on a stat sheet because the offense as a whole regressed.

My overall opinion of Lamar is that since 2019 I haven't seen improvement in his game much at all. He improves for a slight period of time, then regresses back to the mean and stays there. His deep passing accuracy has always been a weakness, and has not improved at any point, as showcased by the accuracy stats for his deep passing, which is independent of the talent at WR he's throwing to. For me it's actually really difficult to name a thing he's improved at since 2019, because IMHO I've just seen an overall clear regression in nearly every aspect of his game year-over-year since then.

[diamondbull424]

I’ll just chip in because this popped up on my feed somehow, but my take is that:

Running Ability
Lamar is slower, probably 4.42’ish speed compared to 2019’s 4.37’ish speed. However Lamar in 2022 is the same speed as he’s been in 2018, 2020, and 2021. 2019 was an outlier where his speed was greater, IIRC he specifically mentioned he felt “slower” in 2018 and so he committed to speed training that offseason.

I think 2022 Lamar is a more efficient runner though because he’s running from less designed runs and more from the pocket than in 2019. So he’s seeing less clutter. This Lamar is also far better at avoiding contact, he arguably could have had some bigger runs, but he’s been protecting himself A LOT more and sacrificing the chance for the ability to live to fight another play.

Passing Ability
In terms of Lamar the passer, I think his mechanics are WAY better than in 2019 and it’s not particularly close. In 2019 Lamar didn’t have the same level of pop towards his sideline throws that he has now. He’s also flicking passes further now than he did then with increased strength. He’s got a far tighter spiral that delivers a more beautiful ball.

Yet Lamar’s decision making has been a little worse overall. Though the difference has been negligible as this season has progressed, earlier in the year he was playing more hero ball, but now he’s seemed to mellow out more to being a game manager with legs like he was in 2019.

Pocket presence I honestly can’t comment on, but Lamar is better at scrambling when the play breaks down to get yards than in 2019 where he would absolutely sit in the pocket well after huge greenery had presented itself.

The reason for the statistical depression IMO is clear, his weapons have had less availability, thus less chemistry than 2019. As well as the RB unit is overall worse than 2019 affording smaller windows for passes. Lastly the OL is worst than 2019, though it’s had stretches of elite play, injuries have derailed the unit from its fullest potential. They’re more above average than good to great like 2019. Lastly the 2019 novelty has worn off and in 2022 teams are better prepared for the task presented.

2019 Andrews < 2022 Andrews
Hollywood Brown > WR Duvernay
Willie Snead > DeMarcus Robinson
Seth Roberts < Rashod Bateman
Hayden Hurst = Isaiah Likely
Nick Boyle > Josh Oliver
Miles Boykin > James Proche
2019 Ricard < 2022 Ricard

So overall he’s got a worse RB core, worse WRs, and worse OL; so it only makes sense that he himself would also be worse.

[Towerbridge]

Ravens need to let him walk.

 

Pretty bad when Huntley can find receivers that Lamar can't 

[wackywabbit]

1 hour ago, Towerbridge said:

Ravens need to let him walk.

 

Pretty bad when Huntley can find receivers that Lamar can't 

Imagine thinking Huntley putting up 10 points with a pick on his own side of the field shows Lamar's lack of value.