What's Lamar Jackson's trade value?

[Soko]

2 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

How so?

Hitting an open man from a clean pocket is largely an accuracy thing, sure. But throwing to a guy like Davante Adams, who you know is going to run the route at the right depth, using the right leverage, and using his own skill (whether that be selling the route, fooling the DB with his head movement, speed in & out of cuts) to get open - that stuff effects the timing big time. And sure, maybe Player B is getting open as much as Player A, but Player B is taking an extra second at the LOS to get free of the release, or maybe he has to make an extra move on his cuts because he’s not as quick - and that hurts the timing too.

Let’s say I’m throwing a seam or a post to a guy like Mike Evans - I know that even if I don’t give him a perfect ball, he’s likely going to make the adjustment and get it, or at least make a play on it. There’s trust there and I make a better throw because of it. Now I’m making that same throw to Devin Duvernay…if I under throw that ball, the DB is coming away with it, so instead I put too much juice on it and it sails. 

Then there’s all sorts of timing, mechanic, and accuracy problems that’ll come with a shaky offensive line (which I imagine everyone largely agrees that the 2019 pass protection was better than it is now). I think that’s more self explanatory.

I don’t really know enough about the Ravens to say whether chemistry, trust, timing, and the rest of that kind of stuff is an issue in Baltimore, but yeah the skill level/attention to detail/ability of receivers is definitely going to make things wonky for the QB, generally. 

Edited December 6, 2022 by Yin-Yang

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

1 hour ago, Yin-Yang said:

Hitting an open man from a clean pocket is largely an accuracy thing from, sure. But throwing to a guy like Davante Adams, who you know is going to run the route at the right depth, using the right leverage, and using his own skill (whether that be selling the route, fooling the DB with his head movement, speed in & out of cuts) to get open - that stuff effects the timing big time.

Ravens offense isn't timing based, really. Can't remember the last time I saw Lamar actually do a timing-based throw.

1 hour ago, Yin-Yang said:

And sure, maybe Player B is getting open as much as Player A, but Player B is taking an extra second at the LOS to get free of the release, or maybe he has to make an extra move on his cuts because he’s not as quick - and that hurts the timing too.

Let’s say I’m throwing a seam or a post to a guy like Mike Evans - I know that even if I don’t give him a perfect ball, he’s likely going to make the adjustment and get it, or at least make a play on it. There’s trust there and I make a better throw because of it. Now I’m making that same throw to Devin Duvernay…if I under throw that ball, the DB is coming away with it, so instead I put too much juice on it and it sails. 

Then there’s all sorts of timing, mechanic, and accuracy problems that’ll come with a shaky offensive line (which I imagine everyone largely agrees that the 2019 pass protection was better than it is now). I think that’s more self explanatory.

Our OL is ranked in the top half of the league in like any pass protection metric you can find.

1 hour ago, Yin-Yang said:

I don’t really know enough about the Ravens to say whether chemistry, trust, timing, and the rest of that kind of stuff is an issue in Baltimore, but yeah the skill level/attention to detail/ability of receivers is definitely going to make things wonky for the QB, generally. 

I mean these are all theoretically valid points, but Lamar's been in the same offense with largely the same players for 3+ years now. If the timing isn't there with Andrews, Proche, Duvernay idk what to tell you.

Robinson and Likely have been here all year as well, but you can argue Robinson going from WR3 to WR1 almost overnight can change things. Still, like I said we don't really run timing-based routes and a lot of what you're saying here in regards to accuracy and on-target throws has to do with timing of routes and where people should be. Lamar doesn't throw like that, with anticipation. He has to see it and then throw it, and his accuracy numbers have been falling consistently year-over-year since 2019.

[Soko]

13 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Ravens offense isn't timing based, really. Can't remember the last time I saw Lamar actually do a timing-based throw.

All offenses require concise timing. Some more than others, but it always matters. There’s no offense in the league where the timing doesn’t matter.  

Davante Adams beating the press quickly, running a slant with one cut and go exactly 5 yards from the LOS is completely different from Devin Duvernay doing it. 

13 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Our OL is ranked in the top half of the league in like any pass protection metric you can find.

And in 2019?

13 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

I mean these are all theoretically valid points, but Lamar's been in the same offense with largely the same players for 3+ years now. If the timing isn't there with Andrews, Proche, Duvernay idk what to tell you.

Robinson and Likely have been here all year as well, but you can argue Robinson going from WR3 to WR1 almost overnight can change things. Still, like I said we don't really run timing-based routes and a lot of what you're saying here in regards to accuracy and on-target throws has to do with timing of routes and where people should be. Lamar doesn't throw like that, with anticipation. He has to see it and then throw it, and his accuracy numbers have been falling consistently year-over-year since 2019.

Having the same bad players doesn’t mean that there’s good chemistry, good timing, or reliable trust between them. 

If the Ravens had Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Justin Jefferson, Travis Kelce, and the mid-2010s Cowboys OL - do you think those accuracy numbers would be better?

Edited December 6, 2022 by Yin-Yang

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

11 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

All offenses require concise timing. Some more than others, but it always matters. There’s no offense in the league where the timing doesn’t matter.  

Our offense, particularly our passing offense, is probably the laziest designed offense in the league. If you want to turn on the All-22 and watch how Lamar goes through plays and throws routes, be my guest. We don't do anticipation or timing routes. It's all crossing routes and things of that nature. Half of the time Mark Andrews is just running wherever he wants and finding open space and then once he gets there Lamar throws him the ball.

11 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Davante Adams beating the press quickly, running a slant with one cut and go exactly 5 yards from the LOS is completely different from Devin Duvernay doing it. 

Oh absolutely.

11 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

And in 2019?

Not sure where they ranked then in terms of pass blocking but that's the best OL we've had aside from this year.

11 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Having the same bad players doesn’t mean that there’s good chemistry, good timing, or reliable trust between them. 

If the Ravens had Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Justin Jefferson, Travis Kelce, and the mid-2010s Cowboys OL - do you think those accuracy numbers would be better?

Personally, maybe marginally but not significantly because I don't believe his accuracy issues are tied to the receivers or OL.

Edited December 6, 2022 by AFlaccoSeagulls

[Soko]

1 minute ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Personally, maybe marginally but not significantly.

Why would they be any better if accuracy stats are completely independent from supporting cast?

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

1 minute ago, Yin-Yang said:

Why would they be any better if accuracy stats are completely independent from supporting cast?

hence the maybe in my answer. If I'm being consistent, then no it wouldn't be. Like I said, I don't think his accuracy issues are tied to the WR's. Our WR's suck, don't get me wrong, they lead the league in drop rate, but Lamar's accuracy issues have been here his whole career regardless of who is out there.

[Soko]

3 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

hence the maybe in my answer. If I'm being consistent, then no it wouldn't be. Like I said, I don't think his accuracy issues are tied to the WR's.

I didn’t say they were. I said accuracy numbers aren’t totally independent to things like coaching, OL play, and WR play. Which is true. Having a perfect environment doesn’t mean you’ll be accurate, but it will absolutely give you an easier time, and that’ll reflect in the numbers. 

What are some ways to lower bad throw percentage and raise on target throw percentage? Scheme guys open, instead of just expecting your crappy WRs to get open on slants and crossers. Get an elite WR that routinely beats his man, does it quickly, and is exactly where you’re expecting him to be. Give the QB so much time in the pocket that guys get open and the QB doesn’t have to sweat a pass rushers coming down as much. 

Who’s going to have better accuracy numbers, the guy with McVay as his play caller or the same guy with Matt Patricia? The guy with Jamarr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd, or the same guy with Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, and N’Keal Harry? The guy who has under 2 seconds to throw, gets sacked 5+ times a game, and is leading the league in pressures or the guy who hardly gets touched and goes home with a clean jersey?

I’m not even telling you that Lamar doesn’t have accuracy issues, but there’s just no fathomable way that environment doesn’t effect a QB’s throwing stats. 

3 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Our WR's suck, don't get me wrong, they lead the league in drop rate, but Lamar's accuracy issues have been here his whole career regardless of who is out there.

And their receivers have always sucked and the playcalling’s been the same, so I don’t know what that’s supposed to mean. 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

24 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

I didn’t say they were. I said accuracy numbers aren’t totally independent to things like coaching, OL play, and WR play. Which is true. Having a perfect environment doesn’t mean you’ll be accurate, but it will absolutely give you an easier time, and that’ll reflect in the numbers. 

What are some ways to lower bad throw percentage and raise on target throw percentage? Scheme guys open, instead of just expecting your crappy WRs to get open on slants and crossers. Get an elite WR that routinely beats his man, does it quickly, and is exactly where you’re expecting him to be. Give the QB so much time in the pocket that guys get open and the QB doesn’t have to sweat a pass rushers coming down as much. 

Who’s going to have better accuracy numbers, the guy with McVay as his play caller or the same guy with Matt Patricia? The guy with Jamarr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd, or the same guy with Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, and N’Keal Harry? The guy who has under 2 seconds to throw, gets sacked 5+ times a game, and is leading the league in pressures or the guy who hardly gets touched and goes home with a clean jersey?

I’m not even telling you that Lamar doesn’t have accuracy issues, but there’s just no fathomable way that environment doesn’t effect a QB’s throwing stats. 

And their receivers have always sucked and the playcalling’s been the same, so I don’t know what that’s supposed to mean. 

Tyler Huntley didn't seem to have a problem completing passes on Sunday, that's all I've really got to say right now. There are open guys to throw to, Lamar just doesn't see them for whatever reason.

[Soko]

10 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Tyler Huntley didn't seem to have a problem completing passes on Sunday, that's all I've really got to say right now. There are open guys to throw to, Lamar just doesn't see them for whatever reason.

[Dr A W Niloc]

2 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Tyler Huntley didn't seem to have a problem completing passes on Sunday, that's all I've really got to say right now.

There are three things we know about running QBs:

1.  They are a cheap-and-dirty way to win with less offensive talent;

2. they are rapidly depreciating assets with short careers; and,

3. they are remarkably easy to replace.

      To their credit, the Ravens were wise to enough to back up the best mobile QB we've seen in decades with...a mobile QB!

      Parenthetically, this is why I like Baltimore and the Over in Balt-Pitt.

 

 

[seminoles1]

27 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

There are three things we know about running QBs:

1.  They are a cheap-and-dirty way to win with less offensive talent;

2. they are rapidly depreciating assets with short careers; and,

3. they are remarkably easy to replace.

      To their credit, the Ravens were wise to enough to back up the best mobile QB we've seen in decades with...a mobile QB!

      Parenthetically, this is why I like Baltimore and the Over in Balt-Pitt.

 

 

What?

[Dr A W Niloc]

40 minutes ago, seminoles1 said:

What?

       "Cheap-and-dirty" = fast, makeshift, economical, corner-cutting

        At 12th in points per game (23.8), Baltimore's offense doesn't succeed because of stultifying O-Linemen creating time for well-coordinated throws to premium WRs running well-timed patterns.  It is more of a one-band than an orchestra.  High ADoT (12th).  Low completion percentage (26th).  Lots of QB rushing yards (2nd), of course.

Edited December 7, 2022 by Dr A W Niloc
Clarification

[wackywabbit]

It's been repeatably and reliably proven (over 5 years) that Ravens will trend to easily making the playoffs if Lamar is healthy enough to play. My OPINION is that arguing that this is due to above average to exceptional talent elsewhere on the offense or overall roster or schematic excellence is silly. The outcome of single game elimination playoffs can not be secured through roster construction. The Ravens teams that actually won the superbowls, anecdotally, were not the best constructed teams entering the playoffs, but they were part of great team constructions that happened to break through in the playoffs. Being in the playoffs consistently is pretty close to optimal roster construction, where you can work on the edges to gain marginal percentage points in the playoffs.

Therefore, Lamar's value is, with the other handful of franchise QBs, not capable of being met by normal trade assets (outside factors like being at the end of their careers or being a scumbag to the degree that transcends the value of winning any football game). Lamar's value does not fluctuate to the degree that posting or reacting to a clip of him missing a 7 yard checkdown on a single play in a single game has any significant value.

Edited December 9, 2022 by wackywabbit

[49ersfan]

The Ravens offense is struggling hard without Lamar. They need him back

[49ersfan]

I wouldn't be surprised if Lamar gets traded this off-season. 

Jets & Dolphins make sense