QB or Not QB-That is is Question

[Lions017]

1 hour ago, Karnage84 said:

If a team like the Panthers offers us up a haul for either Stroud or Young, I think I'd still take it. 

ex. Trey Lance trade

• 2021 1st (#12)
• 2022 1st
• 2022 3rd
• 2023 12st

Both guys have enough question marks that I don't feel 100% comfortable about their NFL futures. 

Carolina #5 = 1700 points

Detroit via LAR #3 = 2200 points (-500 points)

A potential deal could look like

• Carolina receives #3 overall
• Detroit receives #5 overall + #36 + #132

We would wind up picking (as of right now) in the first two rounds:

• #5
• # 13
• #36
• #44
• #61

That could land us players in the realm of (2022 draft prospects) beyond the first round:

- Breece Hall (#36)

- John Metchie/David Ojabo/Jaquan Brisker

- Bryan Cook/James Cook

All quality players with a number of them playing meaningful snaps. 

That all looks nice. When do you get a QB, though? 

I just don't think that you can reasonably expect to win a Super Bowl with Goff. We have years and years of tape. If you build an absolutely elite team he can maybe get you there, but he's not winning you games by himself. We know who he is at this point - a Top 20 QB that will have some good games and some stinkers. 

[Karnage84]

2 minutes ago, Lions017 said:

That all looks nice. When do you get a QB, though? 

I just don't think that you can reasonably expect to win a Super Bowl with Goff. We have years and years of tape. If you build an absolutely elite team he can maybe get you there, but he's not winning you games by himself. We know who he is at this point - a Top 20 QB that will have some good games and some stinkers. 

There wouldn't be anything stopping us from trading up to acquire someone in next year's class, trading for a FA, drafting someone in rounds 2 or 3 this year, etc. 

Stroud has struggled at times while Young has obvious size concerns. There's a few other guys that all have their own question marks. If you aren't sold on a guy (either short or long-term), why force it when we have other holes on the team. Goff can be a top 16 QB with the right pieces in place. I'd rather roll with Goff and add impact guys on the defensive line, secondary, address holes on the OL (RG and Decker's successor), LB, etc. than try and force a pick like Zach Wilson or Trey Lance (both may turn into great QB's but they're offering nothing to their respective teams right now). 

[LionArkie]

29 minutes ago, Lions017 said:

I'm by no means a QB Guru or film expert. From what I've read Young/Stroud are both very good prospects. Maybe neither becomes a megastar, but if they can hit that Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins level and just be a bit better than Goff then that's still super valuable, especially since they'll be cheap for quite a while. 

Levis and Richardson are intriguing too, since they're the more toolsy types and we can afford to have them sit for a minute. 

I'm no expert either. Young's size concerns me. I think at this point I'm most sold on Stroud as my top pick then Levis as my second choice. Those are probably the only two I'd take in the first and I'd only consider Stroud with a top 3 pick.

But...I'm usually also always wrong so there is that to consider as well.

[Karnage84]

43 minutes ago, Lions017 said:

I'm by no means a QB Guru or film expert. From what I've read Young/Stroud are both very good prospects. Maybe neither becomes a megastar, but if they can hit that Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins level and just be a bit better than Goff then that's still super valuable, especially since they'll be cheap for quite a while. 

Levis and Richardson are intriguing too, since they're the more toolsy types and we can afford to have them sit for a minute. 

Levis is already an older prospect. The expectation is that he should be more pro-ready. If you're taking him in round 1, you're expecting him to start day one. 

[Sllim Pickens]

3 hours ago, Lions017 said:

100% you go QB if you have anyone with a high enough grade. 

This is the time. Goff is not the answer. He's fine, but he's expensive and we know what he is. Get someone cheaper with more upside. 

This is the year. We have the draft capital, we have a good offense and line, and we even have Goff there to keep a rookie from being thrown to the wolves. 

The only reason to pass is if you really don't like any of the prospects and/or you just can't trade up to get one. 

Please, don't **** around with drafting a guy on day two or three and crossing your fingers. Those guys have minuscule hit rates. If you want a QB, you take them early. 

1st round picks have pretty low hit rates too, at least to be better than Goff.  I get not wanting to depend on a mid round pick but we need a backup anyways, so at least drafting with the intent of having a better backup is fine for me this year, especially if we miss out on Stroud and Young.  That we we can assess their growth for a year and see if we need to make a major move next year.   

[Sllim Pickens]

1 hour ago, Lions017 said:

That all looks nice. When do you get a QB, though? 

I just don't think that you can reasonably expect to win a Super Bowl with Goff. We have years and years of tape. If you build an absolutely elite team he can maybe get you there, but he's not winning you games by himself. We know who he is at this point - a Top 20 QB that will have some good games and some stinkers. 

Goff has played in a Super Bowl.  So he can be good enough to get there if you have the team around him.  Our D and coaching decisions have let us down this year more than Goff IMO.  I am fine with Goff for now if we dont love the guys at the top.  If we build a team and next year Goff is the reason we lose, then trade up to get the QB we want (Caleb Williams).  

[Louis Friend]

I'm tired of the lazy "size concerns" regarding Young. Drew Brees played at a high level at 6', Bryce Young can as well. He's not exactly 5'3" Kyler Murray out there but it's cute that people are listing him at 5'11 just to not make him a 6 footer. He's tall enough to see the field and he'll add muscle in the NFL to absorb contact. He'd have a top OL to give him a clean pocket and he's already shown he can get the ball out fast to Jamo.

I dare anyone to post proof they had concerns about Stroud prior to the Michigan game. People are letting recency bias influence their opinion. 

None of these guys are flawless. No prospect is. Every single draft pick has had question marks. That's why you study film, check character references, and see if their flaws are something that can be corrected and then weigh the risk/reward of each guy.

But the majority of top QBs are first round picks. Tom Brady is the exception, not the rule. Lions cannot keep kicking the can when it comes to finding a QB to develop. If a QB is BPA, you draft them. Top 4, I'm looking at both Young and Stroud, if both are gone then you draft Anderson or Carter and start looking at guys like Levis, Richardson and Hooker in the 1st/early 2nd round.

Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrows, Matthew Stafford, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, Jared Goff.... all made Superbowls in the last 20 years, all first round picks. If the ultimate goal is to win it all, the most talented options at the most important position are historically found in the first round. No team goes into a draft hoping to find their leader in the mid to late rounds. 

 

 

[LionArkie]

I know you’re broad brushing, but size doesn’t just mean height. I’ve always preferred a taller qb, but there are a exceptions as you pointed out. My issue is his weight. I’m sure he’ll add 10 pounds to that 170 pound frame of his, but I sure do wonder how he will hold up getting hit by a small 270 pound nfl caliber dline man over 18 game season? I think it’s a legitimate concern.

[Karnage84]

4 minutes ago, Louis Friend said:

I'm tired of the lazy "size concerns" regarding Young. Drew Brees played at a high level at 6', Bryce Young can as well. He's not exactly 5'3" Kyler Murray out there but it's cute that people are listing him at 5'11 just to not make him a 6 footer. He's tall enough to see the field and he'll add muscle in the NFL to absorb contact. He'd have a top OL to give him a clean pocket and he's already shown he can get the ball out fast to Jamo.

I dare anyone to post proof they had concerns about Stroud prior to the Michigan game. People are letting recency bias influence their opinion. 

None of these guys are flawless. No prospect is. Every single draft pick has had question marks. That's why you study film, check character references, and see if their flaws are something that can be corrected and then weigh the risk/reward of each guy.

But the majority of top QBs are first round picks. Tom Brady is the exception, not the rule. Lions cannot keep kicking the can when it comes to finding a QB to develop. If a QB is BPA, you draft them. Top 4, I'm looking at both Young and Stroud, if both are gone then you draft Anderson or Carter and start looking at guys like Levis, Richardson and Hooker in the 1st/early 2nd round.

Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrows, Matthew Stafford, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, Jared Goff.... all made Superbowls in the last 20 years, all first round picks. If the ultimate goal is to win it all, the most talented options at the most important position are historically found in the first round. No team goes into a draft hoping to find their leader in the mid to late rounds. 

 

 

 

It's not just height - he's listed at 194 lbs. 

• 5'11 Russell Wilson is 217 lbs
• 5'10 Kyler Murray is 207 lbs 
• Drew Brees was 209 lbs
• Tua is 217 lbs
• Chase Daniel is 229 lbs

He has a sleight frame and so the real question mark is will he be able to handle the punishment playing in the NFL. Even the best OL is going to let a sack or two come through. 

You're drafting a guy with a 10 year window in mind. Anything beyond that is gravy. Is a guy that size going to be able to take a decades worth of hits? It's a legitimate question mark. 

Stroud - he's lost to Michigan two years in a row. He is hesitant to run, even with open lanes. He has a good but not great arm strength. Not saying he isn't a really good QB prospect but he's not a generational guy.   

 

[Just Want A Title]

36 minutes ago, Louis Friend said:

I'm tired of the lazy "size concerns" regarding Young. Drew Brees played at a high level at 6', Bryce Young can as well. He's not exactly 5'3" Kyler Murray out there but it's cute that people are listing him at 5'11 just to not make him a 6 footer. He's tall enough to see the field and he'll add muscle in the NFL to absorb contact. He'd have a top OL to give him a clean pocket and he's already shown he can get the ball out fast to Jamo.

I dare anyone to post proof they had concerns about Stroud prior to the Michigan game. People are letting recency bias influence their opinion. 

None of these guys are flawless. No prospect is. Every single draft pick has had question marks. That's why you study film, check character references, and see if their flaws are something that can be corrected and then weigh the risk/reward of each guy.

But the majority of top QBs are first round picks. Tom Brady is the exception, not the rule. Lions cannot keep kicking the can when it comes to finding a QB to develop. If a QB is BPA, you draft them. Top 4, I'm looking at both Young and Stroud, if both are gone then you draft Anderson or Carter and start looking at guys like Levis, Richardson and Hooker in the 1st/early 2nd round.

Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrows, Matthew Stafford, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, Jared Goff.... all made Superbowls in the last 20 years, all first round picks. If the ultimate goal is to win it all, the most talented options at the most important position are historically found in the first round. No team goes into a draft hoping to find their leader in the mid to late rounds. 

 

 

 

The concerns with Stroud started a few weeks ago even before the Maryland game.  Is he being scrutinized more closely due to the lack of success by Dwayne Haskins and Justin Fields.  Yes.  Does he make some outstanding throws?  Absolutely.  I think the only uncertainty with CJ Stroud is how he performs when the pocket breaks down and he has to improvise.  Some folks feel like he hasn't shown enough in that area leading to the "system QB" concerns.

[Sllim Pickens]

48 minutes ago, Louis Friend said:

I'm tired of the lazy "size concerns" regarding Young. Drew Brees played at a high level at 6', Bryce Young can as well. He's not exactly 5'3" Kyler Murray out there but it's cute that people are listing him at 5'11 just to not make him a 6 footer. He's tall enough to see the field and he'll add muscle in the NFL to absorb contact. He'd have a top OL to give him a clean pocket and he's already shown he can get the ball out fast to Jamo.

I dare anyone to post proof they had concerns about Stroud prior to the Michigan game. People are letting recency bias influence their opinion. 

None of these guys are flawless. No prospect is. Every single draft pick has had question marks. That's why you study film, check character references, and see if their flaws are something that can be corrected and then weigh the risk/reward of each guy.

But the majority of top QBs are first round picks. Tom Brady is the exception, not the rule. Lions cannot keep kicking the can when it comes to finding a QB to develop. If a QB is BPA, you draft them. Top 4, I'm looking at both Young and Stroud, if both are gone then you draft Anderson or Carter and start looking at guys like Levis, Richardson and Hooker in the 1st/early 2nd round.

Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrows, Matthew Stafford, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, Jared Goff.... all made Superbowls in the last 20 years, all first round picks. If the ultimate goal is to win it all, the most talented options at the most important position are historically found in the first round. No team goes into a draft hoping to find their leader in the mid to late rounds. 

 

 

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/147430-the-quarterback-position-does-size-matter

That article helps with peoples concerns.  Yes there are holes in the study and is it pretty basic?  Yes, but it also provides some insight.  Young is a bigger risk and typically has a lower ceiling because of his height.  Now if they do one with weight as well, he would really be an anomaly.  

Also, you mention Brady is the exception, not the rule, but you have to then say the same about Brees, who is your only real support for a short QB being great long term.  Doug Flutie had his moments, Kyler is meh, and Tua is promising but still questionable. Really if you take Brees out of the study above the differences would be more dramatic. 

Its different if I am drafting at 15 or in the second round, but top 3 is tough. 

I do know there are some who were iffy on Stroud before the UM game, that being said they have gotten a lot quieter since Fields has been playing well which means it was an OSU bias, not the player they didn't like.  All of Strouds numbers that typically translate to the NFL, are elite.  His arm is strong, maybe not top 5 strong but he will not have issues with deep balls. 

[Sllim Pickens]

13 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

The concerns with Stroud started a few weeks ago even before the Maryland game.  Is he being scrutinized more closely due to the lack of success by Dwayne Haskins and Justin Fields.  Yes.  Does he make some outstanding throws?  Absolutely.  I think the only uncertainty with CJ Stroud is how he performs when the pocket breaks down and he has to improvise.  Some folks feel like he hasn't shown enough in that area leading to the "system QB" concerns.

I don't get this other than people want him to run more.  Because when the pocket breaks down he has a high completion percentage, he has a quick release, and he doesnt take sacks often.  So why is it a concern if he runs for a first or throws for it?  He can run, but he has a great arm so use that first if you can, and he does. 

[Superduperman]

10 hours ago, Lions017 said:

Please, don't **** around with drafting a guy on day two or three and crossing your fingers. Those guys have minuscule hit rates. If you want a QB, you take them early. 

Clarification: if you need a starting QB for this year out of this years draft, then yeah take one early, but at the same time you can't just stab at a not-sure thing with a top 3 pick. Did you want the Lions to draft Pickett or Malik Willis at #2 last year?

Two other guys who haven't been mentioned: KJ Jefferson and Devin Leary. Jefferson is probably a 3-4 rounder pending the off-season and Leary is 6-7 or UDFA, though I expect him to rise because I think he's got great passing tools.

edit: I'm not interested in Stroud. I'd pass on him in the 3rd round.

edit edit: to me it's pretty clear that the Lions need to roll with Goff for '23, and get a young QB on the roster who is good enough to win some games if called on, and has reasonable upside to develop.

Edited November 30, 2022 by Superduperman

[Superduperman]

6 hours ago, Louis Friend said:

I dare anyone to post proof they had concerns about Stroud prior to the Michigan game. People are letting recency bias influence their opinion. 

I've been watching OSU on and off all year and I definitely thought he was not all that more than once. I don't have any proof for you, believe it or don't.

[Sllim Pickens]

9 hours ago, Superduperman said:

Clarification: if you need a starting QB for this year out of this years draft, then yeah take one early, but at the same time you can't just stab at a not-sure thing with a top 3 pick. Did you want the Lions to draft Pickett or Malik Willis at #2 last year?

Two other guys who haven't been mentioned: KJ Jefferson and Devin Leary. Jefferson is probably a 3-4 rounder pending the off-season and Leary is 6-7 or UDFA, though I expect him to rise because I think he's got great passing tools.

edit: I'm not interested in Stroud. I'd pass on him in the 3rd round.

edit edit: to me it's pretty clear that the Lions need to roll with Goff for '23, and get a young QB on the roster who is good enough to win some games if called on, and has reasonable upside to develop.

I really like KJ Jefferson too.  If he comes out, he could move up to a late first or second round pick, and I honestly wouldn't be mad about taking him there. He has solid production that was replicated so not a one year wonder, has the legs and speed to be dangerous on the ground, and has the size to hold up as a runner at 245lbs.  Someone else mentioned him early in the year and he has sort of been off the radar it seems but I think with combines and such he could move up.  That being said, if he gets a low grade, he has another year he can go back and improve his stock like Levis seems to have done (even though I don't buy it on Levis).  

RE edit 1 - What don't you like about Stroud to the point you wouldn't take him in the third?

RE edit 2 - I agree with you unless they have a chance at a franchise guy at the top and Anderson is gone.  Franchise to me is Stroud or Young but obviously you dont like Stroud, but in general I think Goff is fine if we have better D and coaching and get our WR room healthy/improved but would love a backup that we aren't certain will be an L if they play and has upside to push Goff and potentially start down the road.