QB or Not QB-That is is Question

[Karnage84]

33 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I really like KJ Jefferson too.  If he comes out, he could move up to a late first or second round pick, and I honestly wouldn't be mad about taking him there. He has solid production that was replicated so not a one year wonder, has the legs and speed to be dangerous on the ground, and has the size to hold up as a runner at 245lbs.  Someone else mentioned him early in the year and he has sort of been off the radar it seems but I think with combines and such he could move up.  That being said, if he gets a low grade, he has another year he can go back and improve his stock like Levis seems to have done (even though I don't buy it on Levis).  

RE edit 1 - What don't you like about Stroud to the point you wouldn't take him in the third?

RE edit 2 - I agree with you unless they have a chance at a franchise guy at the top and Anderson is gone.  Franchise to me is Stroud or Young but obviously you dont like Stroud, but in general I think Goff is fine if we have better D and coaching and get our WR room healthy/improved but would love a backup that we aren't certain will be an L if they play and has upside to push Goff and potentially start down the road.   

I've banged the table on Jefferson and I do like him overall. I feel like he could be in the mix at 30/31 for a team wanting to secure that 5th year option. This feels like a very uncertain year for QB's. The top guys have their own question marks while the other guys in the mix are all unsettled for different reasons (Levis' age/production; Richardson has tools but is raw, etc.). 

[Sllim Pickens]

13 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

I've banged the table on Jefferson and I do like him overall. I feel like he could be in the mix at 30/31 for a team wanting to secure that 5th year option. This feels like a very uncertain year for QB's. The top guys have their own question marks while the other guys in the mix are all unsettled for different reasons (Levis' age/production; Richardson has tools but is raw, etc.). 

I'd much rather have Jefferson than Levis or Richardson.  If Jefferson goes back to school I could see him as a top 15 pick next year and if he gets a 2nd-5th round grade from evaluators, he may return.  I like Levis a lot last year in the 4th-5th before he decided to return to school.  I think he is still a mid round QB with tools and upside but hasn't put it together yet.  I don't get how a mid round prospect goes back to school, has a worse year and somehow improves his stock.  

[Karnage84]

1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I'd much rather have Jefferson than Levis or Richardson.  If Jefferson goes back to school I could see him as a top 15 pick next year and if he gets a 2nd-5th round grade from evaluators, he may return.  I like Levis a lot last year in the 4th-5th before he decided to return to school.  I think he is still a mid round QB with tools and upside but hasn't put it together yet.  I don't get how a mid round prospect goes back to school, has a worse year and somehow improves his stock.  

I was listening to Move The Sticks and Daniel Jeremiah had an interesting take on QB's. 

He was discussing the Colts and how they should address the QB position in the future. He was suggesting that it was better to have an athletic guy that can make plays on his feet (designed or when plays break down) while developing as a passer than just being a pure passer. The reasoning was that the pure passer needs a bit more runway to get up to speed (learn the NFL speed, learn the playbook, develop rapport with their WR's) and if they struggle, there's nothing to fall back on. With an athletic guy it gives the team and the player a bit more time to develop and refine their game. 

It really felt like he was talking about Richardson (6'4, 232 lbs; 80.7 OVR; 71.2 PASS; 84.8 RUSH) but you could make that same argument for Jefferson (6'3, 242 lbs; 88.0 OVR; 83.3 PASS; 75.2 RUSH). 

Heck, Hendon Hooker and Bo Nix also offer similar skillsets. 

We can agree or disagree with this assessment but I thought it was an interesting perspective coming from a guy that does this professionally (now in the media and previously for teams). 

Edited November 30, 2022 by Karnage84

[Just Want A Title]

On 11/29/2022 at 9:19 AM, Sllim Pickens said:

I think given how Goff has played this year, he has again done enough to not force us to go QB.  If the right QB drops to us and our staff falls in love, grab him and we can cut or trade Goff.  I have a feeling someone would gladly pony up some picks for him at this point given what he has shown even if its just a 3rd or something similar.   His contract/cap hit is not amongst the top 10 in the league anymore after this year which makes him a lot more desirable to a team like Tampa who may be in need of a replacement if Brady retires.  But I would be content on building the D around him and giving him a full year with Jameo. Also getting healthy on the O line and building more depth would help a ton.  

Draft wise I like Stroud a lot this year.  His accuracy to all parts of the field and quick decision making are very transferable abilities.  He had a bad game against UM but still made a couple amazing throws in that game and honestly all QB prospects have bad games on their resume.  

If not Stroud, grab someone in the mid rounds to improve our backup situation and maybe we hit on a Hurts or Dak type and at worst make it so we aren't hopeless if Goff goes down. 

I do think one of the biggest things to evaluate with these QBs is their leadership ability and drive to be great.  Its hard to find given they all are telling teams what they want to hear but the drive to be great and having a chip on their shoulder seems to push the greats to be great. If not you end up with Zach Wilson's and Jamarcus Russell's.  

One thing in Stroud's defense:  I think folks have so much exposure to CJ Stroud that they could be over-analyzing his play and making more out of his "deficiencies" than they really should be.

[Sllim Pickens]

1 hour ago, Karnage84 said:

I was listening to Move The Sticks and Daniel Jeremiah had an interesting take on QB's. 

He was discussing the Colts and how they should address the QB position in the future. He was suggesting that it was better to have an athletic guy that can make plays on his feet (designed or when plays break down) while developing as a passer than just being a pure passer. The reasoning was that the pure passer needs a bit more runway to get up to speed (learn the NFL speed, learn the playbook, develop rapport with their WR's) and if they struggle, there's nothing to fall back on. It gives the team and the player a bit more time to develop and refine their game. 

It really felt like he was talking about Richardson (6'4, 232 lbs; 80.7 OVR; 71.2 PASS; 84.8 RUSH) but you could make that same argument for Jefferson (6'3, 242 lbs; 88.0 OVR; 83.3 PASS; 75.2 RUSH). 

Heck, Hendon Hooker and Bo Nix also offer similar skillsets. 

We can agree or disagree with this assessment but I thought it was an interesting perspective coming from a guy that does this professionally (now in the media and previously for teams). 

I think it definitely helps to have a guaranteed skill set even if your arm or brain dont translate to the NFL. But I think you have to have enough of the passing and mental capacity to work with in order to be an NFL QB.  And you should be able to show that against collegiate level competition. 

Richardson makes me nervous because I am not sure I see that. He has been under 50% passing in 4 games this year with one 33% to end the season.  I need to watch more on him to see if its on his WRs or what because I just don't see it as a passer with him.  I get he can run but he didn't put up amazing running numbers either.  Lamar Jackson had back to back 1,500 yard seasons running while still passing for 3,000 yards and nearly 30 TDs and better than a 3 to 1 TD to INT ratio.  Fields only had 400 yards rushing but had multiple 68%+ passing years with a 7 to 1 TD to INT ratio.  Kyler Murray had 4k and 1k passing and rushing with 7 to 1 TD to INT.  Jalen Hurts had multiple good to great years throwing the ball and 3 years with over 800 rushing yards with 1300 as a senior.  Richardson had 2,300 yards on 53% completions, with a 1.6 to 1 TD to INT ratio this year and only ran for 650 yards.  I get the excitement of a running QB but I want them to have shown they can throw the ball at a lower level before trying to plug them in at QB in the Pros.  Josh Allen wasn't great in college either and he has worked out but he is an exception again.  Its rare that it happens from that extreme.  In fact he is the only one I can think of that was an average to bad college passer with tools that developed and worked out in the pros.  

[Sllim Pickens]

50 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

One thing in Stroud's defense:  I think folks have so much exposure to CJ Stroud that they could be over-analyzing his play and making more out of his "deficiencies" than they really should be.

I agree, and the same thing happened with Fields.  If Dwayne Haskins (RIP) wasn't as bad as he was, Fields would have went #2.  Fields did everything better than Wilson in college and the OSU QB concerns pushed him down.  Lance was a small school kid with amazing numbers and he may work out but I guarantee the Jets wish they had Fields over Wilson right now.  Heck I would probably swap Sewell for Fields at this point even though I love Sewell.  

[Louis Friend]

1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I agree, and the same thing happened with Fields.  If Dwayne Haskins (RIP) wasn't as bad as he was, Fields would have went #2.  Fields did everything better than Wilson in college and the OSU QB concerns pushed him down.  Lance was a small school kid with amazing numbers and he may work out but I guarantee the Jets wish they had Fields over Wilson right now.  Heck I would probably swap Sewell for Fields at this point even though I love Sewell.  

I wouldn't have taken Fields over Sewell. But if the Lions made the trade with Carolina for the 8th pick, I truly think Fields would have been the pick and not Parsons like Parsons told reporters.

Edited November 30, 2022 by Louis Friend

[Just Want A Title]

1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I agree, and the same thing happened with Fields.  If Dwayne Haskins (RIP) wasn't as bad as he was, Fields would have went #2.  Fields did everything better than Wilson in college and the OSU QB concerns pushed him down.  Lance was a small school kid with amazing numbers and he may work out but I guarantee the Jets wish they had Fields over Wilson right now.  Heck I would probably swap Sewell for Fields at this point even though I love Sewell.  

Fields hasn't exactly lit the NFL on fire with his passing.  I know he is still developing but some of the throws he misses are pretty hideous.

[Dr A W Niloc]

     8th in yards gained and points scored, DFL in yards and points allowed on defense, I'd be shocked if Detroit selected offensive players in the first round.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them take a hurler such as McKee in the second, though.  

     Goff?  Not at that price, certainly.

[Karnage84]

4 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

     8th in yards gained and points scored, DFL in yards and points allowed on defense, I'd be shocked if Detroit selected offensive players in the first round.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them take a hurler such as McKee in the second, though.  

     Goff?  Not at that price, certainly.

Who are you going to replace him? Maybe Stroud or Young offer you similar play for less  (big maybe and Goff would still cost us $10M in dead cap if he was cut/traded). Taylor Heinicke would cost around $16M and offer similar play (plus Goff's dead cap hit). Jimmy G is going to be around $25-$26M + Goff's dead cap hit. 

While the Lions are going to want to get a QB eventually, I'm not convinced that the team feels he's their problem overall. The offense has struggled with injuries especially at WR. Our defense was a spaghetti strainer forever and is only now starting to make some plays. 

[Dr A W Niloc]

15 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

While the Lions are going to want to get a QB eventually, I'm not convinced that the team feels he's their problem overall.

This is my sense, too.  A can't see a big market for Goff so the chances of a renegotiation can't be dismissed.  In addition to an also-ran candidate or pitcher such as McKee, there are one year rentals available at reasonable prices. 

It may seem odd but the Detroit pivot position has a surprisingly low degree of difficulty compared to other QB-needy franchises.  Good blocking, passable receivers, running threat, etc.  If Detroit has a top 3 pick, blowing it on a QB, ignoring that defense, strikes me as impractical.  Are the Lions shooting for Air Coryell?

[Just Want A Title]

2 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

This is my sense, too.  A can't see a big market for Goff so the chances of a renegotiation can't be dismissed.  In addition to an also-ran candidate or pitcher such as McKee, there are one year rentals available at reasonable prices. 

It may seem odd but the Detroit pivot position has a surprisingly low degree of difficulty compared to other QB-needy franchises.  Good blocking, passable receivers, running threat, etc.  If Detroit has a top 3 pick, blowing it on a QB, ignoring that defense, strikes me as impractical.  Are the Lions shooting for Air Coryell?

It all depends who is available.  The pool of draft eligible players this year seems fairly deep at OT, ER/DE and CB.  If they end up at #3 and CJ Stroud is on the board, it wouldn't be a reach.  This will probably be the first year Brad Holmes makes a splash signing in free agency that that could impact our draft priorities quite a bit

[Karnage84]

5 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

This is my sense, too.  A can't see a big market for Goff so the chances of a renegotiation can't be dismissed.  In addition to an also-ran candidate or pitcher such as McKee, there are one year rentals available at reasonable prices. 

It may seem odd but the Detroit pivot position has a surprisingly low degree of difficulty compared to other QB-needy franchises.  Good blocking, passable receivers, running threat, etc.  If Detroit has a top 3 pick, blowing it on a QB, ignoring that defense, strikes me as impractical.  Are the Lions shooting for Air Coryell?

If the Lions wind up two picks in the top 20, I could see us making a trade down from #2 - 4 (depending on what the Rams do) for a team wanting to move up into the top 5 to snag a QB. For the kind of compensation that we have seen in years past, it would not be shocking for us to bypass that guy and build up the rest of the talent on the roster. 

Goff has the 11th biggest cap hit (AVG) but he's not far off from the Carson Wentz's and Matt Ryan's of the world while offering up considerably more value as a player. 

 

[Karnage84]

4 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

It all depends who is available.  The pool of draft eligible players this year seems fairly deep at OT, ER/DE and CB.  If they end up at #3 and CJ Stroud is on the board, it wouldn't be a reach.  This will probably be the first year Brad Holmes makes a splash signing in free agency that that could impact our draft priorities quite a bit

Who is he going to sign that's a splash? Outside of Da'Ron Payne (I don't even know if I would call that a splash), the FA class isn't all that great. There's a few names on the list that I doubt will be available. We're also a team that has been rebuilding by adding veteran players on 1 year contracts to fill in the gaps. 

I agree, I don't think that Stroud would be a reach but I try to not look at just the individual draft class but compared to other draft classes. The best player (or next best available) of a bad bunch doesn't make them a good player.*

 

* Not calling Stroud a bad player, just more of a general term. Last year's QB class wasn't great - forcing Kenny Pickett in the top 5 wouldn't have made sense based on the player. 

[Just Want A Title]

7 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

If the Lions wind up two picks in the top 20, I could see us making a trade down from #2 - 4 (depending on what the Rams do) for a team wanting to move up into the top 5 to snag a QB. For the kind of compensation that we have seen in years past, it would not be shocking for us to bypass that guy and build up the rest of the talent on the roster. 

Goff has the 11th biggest cap hit (AVG) but he's not far off from the Carson Wentz's and Matt Ryan's of the world while offering up considerably more value as a player. 

 

Goff's salary isn't so bad and he is still an above average QB.  Is he Patrick Mahomes or Justin Hebert-no.  He isn't Marcus Mariota either.  He might look a lot better when you has Jameson Williams playing.  Assuming the rate of WR injuries slows a bit.