Week 13: San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins

[J-ALL-DAY]

Well, not every win is goin to look pretty and last week's game was anything but that. But a win is a win and now we are on to the toughest part of our schedule. First up the red hot Miami Dolphins......

There's going to be a lot of storylines with a bunch of former 49ers players and coaches on the Dolphins team, in particular, Shanny's right hand man for nearly two decades in Mike McDaniel. But all that aside, the Dolphins are a REALLY good freaking team. In fact, the Dolphins have not lost a game with Tua as the starter in games he finished. Goes without saying that this game is going to be extremely difficult to win.

Offensively, I think we will need to establish some sort of running game in the early going. The Dolphins have been a solid team against the run all season but we need to get CMC going on the ground. He shouldn't be this ineffective, despite the suspect run blocking from the interior. I know he has knee irritation and likely won't practice much at all this week but I'm sure he will give it a go. Not having Mitchell sucks as he is probably the best pure runner on the team and was running the ball well after his return but now he is out and we will have to rely on the rookies. Mason needs to be the guy next up over TDP. I'm going to be very curious to see how the team handles Jimmy this week and how much that hit is going to effect him this week. We all saw what happened last time when Jimmy tried to toughen it out with an injury against the Dolphins. If the Dolphins commit to stopping the run and blitz their usual percentage, then we will need our receivers to win their match ups and for Jimmy to give them opportunities in single coverage. This screams a Brandon Aiyuk game, even if Howard is covering him. It may do Jimmy some good to target Kittle from time to time as well....I heard he's still a pretty damn good player LOL. There were a few times when there was a free rusher and Jimmy didn't see it or get the ball out to his hot receiver. Didn't hurt us against the Saints but against the Dolphins where the offense is going to need to put up a bunch of points, that can't happen. I feel like Shanny is going to try to get CMC matched up in single coverage against LBs and safeties all game and attack that way until the Dolphins show they can stop him. I wouldn't be surprised if he has over 80 receiving yards. 

Defensively, this is a game where the safeties will have to take everything away over the top and the backers will need to tackle all the underneath stuff. They can't be relied upon to shut this offense down as they have the last four or so opponents, but I'm hoping they show their class unlike the last time they played a high powered offense. I wonder if McDaniel tries to attack the edges the way Reid did and take advantage of Bosa's aggressiveness? While our Armstead is probably coming back this week, the Dolphins stud tackle Armstead is going to be out with a tear in his pec muscle. That's a tough loss as Armstead is and has been one of the best tackles in the game for years. Still, the Dolphins offense will find ways to get their points. JWJ and Mostert are both banged up but I think they will make sure they give it a go to get back at their former team. I think our run defense is going to be stout as usual though. Both are good backs but it has been damn near impossible for any RB to run it against this defense for much of the season. While the Dolphins have THE best deep threat since Moss and another stud in Waddle, much of the work they have been doing is underneath. Tua is very accurate and will take what the defense gives him. With as much zone coverage we run and just our philosophy defensively, it's going to be a bend but don't break type of game for this unit. The Dolphins will get to the RZ plenty, but can we hold them to FGs instead of TDs? That's going to determine the outcome of the game. Bosa is always good for one sack, but I think he gets 2 or 3 this game. The question is, can we get something outside of Bosa? I'm looking at you Ebukam! Good performance against the Saints but we need some sacks on Tua to stop this high powered offense. Ward has shifted to the left side the last two games and I think he does that this week as well but he won't be matched up much with Hill aside from some certain 3rd downs. That's going to be a match up to watch and one Ward will need to hold his own in. Tua has not turned the ball over much at all this season but I have a feeling Warner will have his opportunity to get his hands on a ball or two as Tua likes to attack the middle of the intermediate area that Warner has been a master of taking away. This is going to be a game where Warner shows his all pro ability and has a big impact from start to finish. 

I think the scoreless second half streak ends this week BUT the defense makes a big hold late in the game and that will be the difference in the game.

SF 27

MIA 23

[adamq]

This one will come down to the pass rush, on both sides. Miami's OL is vulnerable, especially with no Armstead. Ryans needs to dial up the blitz early and often to get them off schedule.

 

Dolphins have some scary pass rushers, and the safety Holland is an absolute MENACE. Jimmy is going to get beat up and I hope he makes it through this one. We have to dominate on the ground and play Shanny ball... but without the 4th down cowardice

 

Forgot the prediction... 49ers win, 26-19. Lotta field goals 

Edited November 29, 2022 by adamq

[Forge]

We have kicked 8 field goals from within the ten yard line. Tops in the league

[StevenK]

I agree with a lot of what was already mentioned, however this is probably going to be the game we miss Mosley the most. I personally think Hill and Waddle are going to feast similar to the way KC cooked us. We will have to blitz especially with Armsteads injury now and disguise it. 
 

Offensively we just have to continue to play smart football. Get the run game going and even if CMC is on a snap count because of his knee, Kyle needs to show faith in his rookie - Mason or TDP. Can’t have a shootout with them. 
 

Homer in me, see’s a Niner win, but this could easily get away from us ala KC game. 

[757-NINER]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

We have kicked 8 field goals from within the ten yard line. Tops in the league

We're such a medicore offense inside the 10. Jimmy handcuffs us in that area because he really isn't great when the middle of the field is congested. And besdies Trent, our O-Line rarely seems to be able to consistently move pp inl man-blocking situations.

As far as the Fins, I just think its a bad match-up for us. Hill and Waddle are two guys with great vertical ability to stretch our zone and leave us vulnerable in the middle of the field. Our pass-rush hasn't been getting home with just four consistently and I feel like Tua is going to be able to carve us up in zone because of it. Sherfield has looked solid as a WR3/4. Becasue Tua can also move and throw on the run, the off schedule pitch and catch will come into play on 3rd downs. Until Ward is moved back to FS, we're going to get gashed in the intermediate middle. Huf is still a tick behind in diagnosing in that area and Gipson physically just can't make the same plays Ward can. 

Offensively, they have the kind of interior front that can make Jimmy antsy and rush his timing. 

[TecmoSuperJoe]

I love when these two teams play. Two of the sharpest uniforms in the league history-wise. Some of my favorite wins against the Dolphins.

1992 Week 14 Dolphins at 49ers. Jerry Rice breaks the all-time TD record for receivers.

1995 Week 12 49ers at Dolphins. No Steve Young, no problem. 49ers embarrass the Dolphins in their own house with a 44-20 thrashing. Marino got sacked on the Dolphins first three offensive plays. One of the hallmark wins of the 1990s for the 49ers to me. 

1986 Week 4 49ers at Dolphins 

No Montana, no problem. With Jeff Kemp at QB, the 49ers roll in Miami smacking Miami 31-16. Marino in 5 games was 1-4 against the 49ers, only winning in his rookie year. The rest were all blowouts in 4 different venues, including Super Bowl 19.

 

Edited November 29, 2022 by TecmoSuperJoe

[Forge]

31-23 Dolphins. Think the niners settle for too many field goals, and and the secondary has it's hands full with Waddle and Hill. 

I think Armstead being out is really going to hurt the fins, but I don't know if it'll be enough. I think that like Shanny, Mike McD is smart enough to work around that with sweeps to Waddle / Hill and bubbles. 

[clarkfn2284]

I feel like the Niners are going to capitalize on the poor Dolphins defense. Hill and Waddle will get theirs. I dont expect anything from the Dolphins run game. This game could go any direction, but Kyle has a very good track record against his pupils. Running the ball is going to be a key, but more so it is going to be the ability to stay ahead of the sticks. Let Jimmy rip it in this game. Use the threats the offense has. 

34-24 SF

[TecmoSuperJoe]

4 hours ago, Forge said:

We have kicked 8 field goals from within the ten yard line. Tops in the league

Do you know the amount of trips to the redzone for the 49ers offense compared to other clubs? I'm wondering how often they get there, in addition to their TD percentage there. 

[Forge]

9 minutes ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

Do you know the amount of trips to the redzone for the 49ers offense compared to other clubs? I'm wondering how often they get there, in addition to their TD percentage there. 

I don't have the total amount (but you can extrapolate), but we average 3.3 trips per game, I believe, which puts us 11th in the league. 

We are 16th in TDs per red zone trip, 20th in points per red zone trip. 

[49erscap]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

31-23 Dolphins. Think the niners settle for too many field goals, and and the secondary has it's hands full with Waddle and Hill. 

I think Armstead being out is really going to hurt the fins, but I don't know if it'll be enough. I think that like Shanny, Mike McD is smart enough to work around that with sweeps to Waddle / Hill and bubbles. 

And you just made Santa's naughty list lol

[JIllg]

29 minutes ago, 49erscap said:

And you just made Santa's naughty list lol

Too bad the Forge runs on coal lol

[NcFinest9erFan]

30-28, US.

Miami scores 28 in the first half but we shut out a team in the second half for the 5th straight week. 

Jimmy G becomes the comeback Kid for one week

Tevin Coleman is the unsung hero.

[J-ALL-DAY]

Like I mentioned already, THIS will be a big key in the game. The numbers aren't updated but you get the picture. Warner has been the best LB in the game at preventing those completions and Tua is the best in the game at completing those passes. Who wins that battle may win the game. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

Looks like there is a chance the Dolphins will have their stud tackle for this game. I hope he does play. I want to see how this defense holds up against this high powered offense near full strength.